24th July

WTA Prague

Linette 1.83 v Tomova

Due to start at 10:30 am

Linette 3-0. Most recent Aug 2022, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in July 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s in the last year favour Linette.
Linette beat Barthel in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Masarova in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals in Strasbourg in May. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid. Final in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston.
Tomova had a straight sets win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Fett in the 2nd round. CH final in June. 2nd round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat.
12 and 3 month stats favour Linette on serve. Tomova leads on return and in the last 3 months, predicted holds favour Tomova. Very good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Tomova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.

WTA Iasi

Avanesyan 1.76 v Cristian

Due to start at 3 pm

Cristian 1-0 (May 2024, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Cristian.
Avanesyan had an easy win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Martic in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals last week. 4th round at the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Rouen.
Cristian had an easy win in the 1st round. She beat Ruse in 3 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals in Palermo. 3rd round in Rome and Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
12 month stats favour Cristian. 3 month stats favour Cristian on serve but strongly favour Avanesyan on return. Good chance of 3 sets. Recent performances are better for Cristian.
Lay Avanesyan around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.

23rd July

WTA Iasi

Boskovic v Lepchenko 1.83

Due to start at 11:30

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Lepchenko.
Boskovic lost in the qual rounds. She beat Timofeeva in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. ITF semi in July. CH 2nd round in June. Most of her matches were in ITF's.
Lepchenko has come through the qual rounds. She beat Trevisan in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. ITF final and q final in July. ITF final in June. CH q final in April.
12 month WTA stats favour Lepchenko. 12 and 3 month stats on all tours also favour her.
Back Lepchenko around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.70.

WTA Prague

Noskova 1.43 v Lys

Due to start at 2 pm

Noskova 1-0 (Mar 2022, indoor, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are better for Lys.
Noskova had a straight sets win in the 1st round. She reached the 2nd round of the French Open. 3rd round in Rome.
Lys had a 2 sets win in the 1st round. She reached the semis in Budapest last week. CH q final in June. CH 2nd round in April.
They are quite evenly matched. 3 month stats are better for Lys. I think she can take it to 3 sets.
Lay Noskova around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Lay set 1 winner.

22nd July

WTA Iasi

Boskovic v Timofeeva 1.55

Due to start at 12:00

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are pretty even.
Boskovic lost in the qual rounds. ITF semi in July. CH 2nd round in June. Most of her matches were in ITF's.
Timofeeva reached the 2nd round in Budapest She had won the title in Budapest in 2023.
12 month clay stats are better for Boskovic overall. 3 month stats are closer but favour Boskovic. Recent performances are better for Timofeeva.
Lay Timofeeva around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Iasi

Lepchenko v Trevisan 1.51

Due to start at 13:30

Trevisan 1-0 (Aug 2018, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Lepchenko.
Lepchenko has come through the qual rounds. ITF final and q final in July. ITF final in June. CH q final in April.
Trevisan won a CH title in July. CH q final in June. 2nd round in Rabat and Rouen.
12 and 3 month stats on all tours favour Lepchenko. Recent performances are better for Trevisan. She went through a period of poor form which she seems to have put behind her.
Lay Trevisan around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.

21st July

WTA Iasi

Bulgaru v Maria 1.90

Due to start at 4 pm

1st meeting. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Bulgaru.
CH 2nd rounds in July and June. CH q finals in Dec and Nov.
Maria reached the 2nd round in Rome and Madrid. Q finals in Bogota.
12 month WTA stats are better for Bulgaru. 3 month stats also favour her. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Maria around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Palermo

Zheng 1.69 v Muchova

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Muchova 1-0 (Apr 2022, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are even.
Zheng won the title last year. Easy win over Errani in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Martic. A very easy win over Cristian in the q final. 2 sets win over Parry in the semi final. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Muchova had a straight sets win in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets in the 2nd round against Noha. She needed 2 tie breaks against Sharma in the q final. She reached the French Open final in 2023. She had not played on clay since. She beat a disappointing Begu in 2 easy sets in the semis. She reached the q final in Eastbourne (grass) in June but withdrew.
Stats for the tournament favour Zheng on serve and Muchova on return. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Zheng around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

20th July

ATP Gstaad

Tsitsipas 1.68 v Berrettini

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Tsitsipas 5-1. Most recent Jan 2023, hard, Tsitsipas in 3. He won on clay in May 2021, 2 sets. Berrettini won on clay in an exhibition during Covid in 2020, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are fairly even but favour Berrettini.
Tsitsipas beat Medjedovic in 2 tight sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Fognini in the q final. He reached the q finals at the French Open. Q finals in Rome. Final in Barcelona. Title in Monte Carlo.
Berrettini beat Cachin in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Galan in the 2nd round. 2 tie break sets win over Aliassime in the q final. He won the title in Marrakech.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Berrettini overall. Very good chance of 3 sets. Tsitsipas has played stronger opponents in 2024.
Lay Tsitsipas around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95. Lay set 1 winner. Slight edge to Tsitsipas to win.

WTA Palermo

Zheng 1.30 v Parry

Due to start at 7 pm

Zheng 1-0 (July 2023, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Zheng.
Zheng won the title last year. Easy win over Errani in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Martic. A very easy win over Cristian in the q final. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Parry reached the 2nd round last year. She needed 3 sets in the 1st round this week against Gadecki. Another 3 setter against Teichmann in the 2nd round. She also needed 3 sets against Paquet in the q final. CH q final last year. 2nd round at the French Open. CH final and q final in Dec.
12 and 3 month WTA clay stats are better for Zheng. Parry was favourite in every round but needed 3 sets every time.
Back Zheng around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.

19th July

WTA Palermo

Begu 1.35 v Li

Due to start at 5 pm

Li 1-0 (Oct 2021, hard, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are close in the last 12 months.
Begu didn't lose a game in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Rus in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd round at the French Open. 4th round in Rome. CH final in March.
Li beat Stearns in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Andreeva in the 2nd round. She reached a CH final last week. CH title in June.
12 month WTA stats are better for Begu overall. Li has served well this week. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Begu around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Begu around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.

WTA Palermo

Zheng 1.39 v Cristian

Due to start at 7 pm

Cristian 2-0. Most recent July 2021, clay, 2 sets. Her other win was on clay in 2019. Clay win %'s favour Zheng.
Zheng won the title last year. Easy win over Errani in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Martic. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Cristian beat Riera in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bronzetti in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd rounds in Rome and Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
12 and 3 month stats favour Zheng.
Back Zheng around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.55.

18th July

WTA Budapest

Bondar 1.61 v Seidel

Due to start at 4:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Bondar.
Bondar reached the 2nd round last season. She beat Danilovic in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. ITF title in June. She reached a CH semi in Sep. Most of her best results are in ITF's.
Seidel lost in the qual rounds. In the 1st round, her opponent retired. ITF title in June. Limited clay success.
Back Bondar around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Palermo

Bronzetti v Cristian 1.89

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Cristian 3-0. Most recent July 2023, grass, 2 sets. Their other matches were on clay in 2021 and 2017. Clay win %'s are better for Cristian.
Bronzetti lost in the 1st round last year. 3 sets win over Jacquemot in the 1st round as favourite. She won a CH title last week. Q finals in Rabat.
Cristian beat Riera in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 3rd rounds in Rome and Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
12 month WTA stats are better for Cristian on serve. predicted holds favour her. 3 month stats also favour her.
Lay Bronzetti around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets.

17th July

WTA Budapest

Avanesyan 1.53 v Masarova

Due to start at 12:00

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Avanesyan.
Avanesyan reached the q finals last season. 2 sets win over Frech in the 1st round. 4th round at the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Rouen. Q finals in Lausanne.
Masarova had a straight sets win in the 1st round. She reached a CH final in April.
12 month WTA stats are better for Masarova on serve. 3 month stats also favour her on serve but strongly favour Avanesyan on return. Recent performances are much better for Avanesyan.
Back Avanesyan around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

WTA Palermo

Rus v Begu 1.49

Due to start at 4:30 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2013, hard, Begu in 2 sets. Rus won on grass in 2007, 2 sets. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Begu.
Rus lost in the first round last year. 3 sets win over Trevisan as underdog in the 1st round this week. ITF title in July. 2nd round of the French Open. Q final in Rouen. Title in Hamburg in July 2023.
Begu didn't lose a game in the 1st round. She reached the 3rd round at the French Open. 4th round in Rome. CH final in March.
12 month WTA clay stats are better for Begu. 3 month stats also favour her.
Rus has had really strong results on clay on the ITF tour. She has rarely been able to transfer that form to the main tour. However she did play well in the last round.
Lay Begu around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Back Begu if she loses set 1.

16th July

WTA Budapest

Wang v Todoni 1.94

Due to start at 12:00

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Todoni.
Wang reached a CH semi in June. 2nd round in Rabat. 2nd round in Madrid.
Todoni won a CH title in June. 2nd round in Bogota.
12 month WTA stats are better for Todoni. 3 month stats are fairly even. Good chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Todoni.
Lay Wang around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Palermo

Rus v Trevisan 1.87

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Trevisan 3-2. Most recent May 2022, clay, Trevisan in 2. Rus won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Rus.
Rus lost in the first round last year. ITF title in July. 2nd round of the French Open. Q final in Rouen. Title in Hamburg in July 2023.
Trevisan lost in the 1st round last season. She won a CH title last week. CH q final in June. 2nd rounds in Rabat and Rouen.
12 month WTA stats are better for Rus on serve. Predicted holds favour her. 12 month stats on all tours favour Rus. 3 month stats on all tours favour Rus overall.
Lay Trevisan around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

15th July

WTA Budapest

Sasnovich v Tomova 1.57

Due to start at 1:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Tomova.
Sasnovich reached the 3rd round in Rome as qualifier.
Tomova reached a CH final in June. 2nd round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat.
WTA 12 month stats are better for Tomova on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Sasnovich.
Back Tomova around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.

WTA Palermo

Blinkova 1.68 v Sharma

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Sharma 1-0 (Sep 2020, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Sharma.
Blinkova reached the 2nd round of the French Open. 2nd round in Rome.
Sharma reached the q finals in Charleston. CH title in Sep.
12 month clay stats are better for Sharma on serve. return stats are better for Blinkova. predicted holds favour Sharma.
Lay Blinkova around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.95. Fait chance of 3 sets. Value on Sharma.

14th July

WTA Challenger Bastad  #Carried over from yesterday#

Trevisan 1.90 v Li

Due to start at 9:30 am

H2H 1-1. Most recent June 2024, clay, Li in 3. Trevisan won on clay in 2024, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Li.
Trevisan beat Sharma in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bulgaru in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Parry as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over Chirico in the semis. She reached a CH q final in June. 2nd round in Rabat in May. 2nd round in Rouen in April. Q finals in Hamburg in July 2023.
Li had an easy win over Sramkova as underdog in the 1st round. Another 2 sets win in the 2nd round over Rakhimova. 2 sets win over Kawa in the q final. 2 sets win over Diaz in the semi final. She won a CH title in June. ITF q final in June. ITF semi and q final in May.
CH stats are better for Li. Clay stats on all tours are better for Li.
Lay Trevisan around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Good chance of 3 sets. I favour Li to win. 

ATP Wimbledon

Alcaraz 1.76 v Djokovic

Due to start at 2 pm

Djokovic 3-2. Most recent Nov 2023, indoors, Djokovic in 2. He won on hard in Aug 2023, 3rd set tie break. Alcaraz won in the Wimbledon final last season, 5 sets. Their other matches were on clay. Grass win %'s are fairly even.
Alcaraz won the title last year. This year he had a straight sets win in the 1st and 2nd rounds. He did not serve well in the 3rd round against Tiafoe and needed 5 sets. 4 sets win over Humbert in the 4th round. 4 sets win over Paul in the q final. In the semi final, Alcaraz was struggling on serve and lost the 1st set to Medvedev. After that, he sorted out his 1st serve and was more in control for the rest of the match. He won in 4 sets.
Djokovic had knee surgery 4 weeks ago. He had a straight sets win in the 1st round. He dropped a set to Fearnley in the 2nd round. It was the 3rd set when he was 2 sets up. This isn't unusual in best of 5 sets matches when the leading player tries to cruise through set 3 to conserve energy. He lost the opening set to Popyrin in the 3rd round but won in 4 sets. Straight sets win over Rune in the 4th round. He had a walkover in the q final when De Minaur withdrew. Fairly straight forward win over Musetti in the semi final.
12 month grass stats favour Djokovic. 2024 stats also favour him.
They played 5 sets last year. It won't be a surprise if we see 5 sets again today.
Lay Alcaraz around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95. Lay set 1 winner. Value on Djokovic.

Lasi Challenger

Dellien 1.76 v Cosano

Due to start at 5 pm

Cosano 1-0 (July 2019, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are a little better for Cosano.
Dellien has been favourite in every round. He dropped sets in the 1st round and q final. CH semi in April. CH q final in March.
Cosano has not lost a set. He was underdog in the semi final. CH q final in May. CH semi in April. CH title in Feb.
12 month CH stats are better for Dellien. 3 month stats are more even. Dellien had a recent injury issue and retired from a CH 2nd round in June. Stats for the tournament are a little better for Cosano. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Dellien around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95.

13th July

WTA Challenger Bastad

Trevisan 1.90 v Li

Due to start at 1 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent June 2024, clay, Li in 3. Trevisan won on clay in 2024, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Li.
Trevisan beat Sharma in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bulgaru in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Parry as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over Chirico in the semis. She reached a CH q final in June. 2nd round in Rabat in May. 2nd round in Rouen in April. Q finals in Hamburg in July 2023.
Li had an easy win over Sramkova as underdog in the 1st round. Another 2 sets win in the 2nd round over Rakhimova. 2 sets win over Kawa in the q final. 2 sets win over Diaz in the semi final. She won a CH title in June. ITF q final in June. ITF semi and q final in May.
CH stats are better for Li. Clay stats on all tours are better for Li.
Lay Trevisan around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Good chance of 3 sets. I favour Li to win. 

WTA Wimbledon

Krejcikova 1.78 v Paolini

Due to start at 2 pm

Krejcikova 1-0 (Jan 2018, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are pretty even in the last year.
Krejcikova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Kudermetova in 3 very tight sets in the 1st round. She was broken 5 times from 19 bp's. She needed 2 tie breaks to beat Volynets in the 2nd round. Her opponent retired in the 3rd round. In the 4th round, she beat Collins in 2 sets as underdog. 2 sets win over Ostapenko in the q final. Ostapenko didn't serve well. 3 sets win over Rybakina in the semi final. Q finals in Birmingham.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Minnen in the 2nd round. She beat Andreescu in the 3rd round in 2 sets. She was 2-5 down in the 3rd set against Keys in the fourth round when Keys got injured and retired at 5-5. In the q final, she beat Navarro really easily. Navarro had played really well in the previous round to beat Gauff in 2 sets. She beat Vekic in a 3rd set tie break in the semi final. Paolini has a poor grass record but has improved her game immensely in the last year or so and reached the semis in Eastbourne.
12 month grass stats are better for Krejcikova on serve and favour Paolini on return.
Paolini started poorly in the semi final. The occasion seemed to get to her. She started to improve after she went a set behind. Krejcikova has served well in the last 3 rounds. She won the French Open title in 2021 so is perhaps better placed to handle the occasion. Very good chance of 3 sets.
Back Krejcikova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

12th July

ATP Wimbledon

Medvedev v Alcaraz 1.33

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Alcaraz 4-2. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Alcaraz in 2. He won indoors in Nov 2023, 2 sets. Med won on hard in Sep 2023, 4 sets. Alcaraz won on grass in the Wimbledon semis last year, straight sets. Grass win %'s are better for Alcaraz.
Medvedev reached the semis last year. Easy win over Kovacevic in the 1st round. Medvedev made hard work of his 4 sets win over Muller. He was a set and 0-3 behind. He was broken twice in 4 sets. 4 sets win over Struff in the 3rd round. In the 4th round, Dimitrov retired in the 1st set. 5 sets win over Sinner in the q final.
Alcaraz won the title last year. This year he had a straight sets win in the 1st and 2nd rounds. He did not serve well in the 3rd round against Tiafoe and needed 5 sets. 4 sets win over Humbert in the 4th round. 4 sets win over Paul in the q final.
12 month grass stats are better for Medvedev on serve but strongly favour Alcaraz on return. Medvedev's serve can keep this tight.
Lay Alcaraz around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Alcaraz around 1.90 to 2.10. Lay set 1 winner. 4 or 5 sets.

ATP Wimbledon

Musetti v Djokovic 1.14

Due to start at 3:30 pm

Djokovic 5-1. Most recent June 2024, clay, Djokovic in 5. He won on clay in 2024, 2 sets. Musetti won on clay in 2023, 3 sets. Grass win %'s are close in the last year.
Musetti reached the 3rd round last season. 4 sets win over Lestienne in the 1st round. 5 sets win over Darderi in the 2nd round. 4 sets win over Comesana in the 3rd round. 4 sets win over Perricard in the 4th round. He beat Fritz in 5 sets in the q final as huge underdog. Semis in Stuttgart and final at Queens Club.
Djokovic had knee surgery 4 weeks ago. He had a straight sets win in the 1st round. He dropped a set to Fearnley in the 2nd round. It was the 3rd set when he was 2 sets up. This isn't unusual in best of 5 sets matches when the leading player tries to cruise through set 3 to conserve energy. He lost the opening set to Popyrin in the 3rd round but won in 4 sets. Straight sets win over Rune in the 4th round. He had a walkover in the q final when De Minaur withdrew.
In the 3rd and 4th rounds Musetti was broken a total on one time. In his other matches. In the q final he was broken just 4 times in 5 sets but by Fritz who is weak on return. His serve will come under a lot of pressure today.
We can try a lay of Djokovic and remove liability at 1.25. Back Djokovic if he loses set 1.

11th July

WTA Wimbledon

Vekic v Paolini 1.63

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Paolini 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Paolini in 2. Vekic won indoors in 2021, 2 sets. Paolini won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. Grass win %'s are better for Paolini in the last year.
Vekic reached the 3rd round last year. She needed 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Andreeva in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. She beat Badosa in 3 sets in the 4th round. She beat Sun in 3 sets in the q final. Final in Bad Homburg in June. 2nd rounds in Berlin and Hertogenbosch.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Minnen in the 2nd round. She beat Andreescu in the 3rd round in 2 sets. She was 2-5 down in the 3rd set against Keys in the fourth round when Keys got injured and retired at 5-5. In the q final, she beat Navarro really easily. Navarro had played really well in the previous round to beat Gauff in 2 sets. Paolini has a poor grass record but has improved her game immensely in the last year or so and reached the semis in Eastbourne.
12 month grass stats are better for Paolini overall. Decent chance of 3 sets and both players are likely to hit by nerves if they take the lead.
Back Paolini around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

WTA Wimbledon

Krejcikova v Rybakina 1.23

Due to start at 3 pm

Krejcikova 2-0. Most recent Oct 2022, indoor, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2021, 3 sets. Long term grass win %'s are better for Rybakina but they are more even in the last year.
Krejcikova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Kudermetova in 3 very tight sets in the 1st round. She was broken 5 times from 19 bp's. She needed 2 tie breaks to beat Volynets in the 2nd round. Her opponent retired in the 3rd round. In the 4th round, she beat Collins in 2 sets as underdog. 2 sets win over Ostapenko in the q final. Ostapenko didn't serve well. Q finals in Birmingham.
Rybakina reached the q finals last year. Started slowly against Ruse but won easily in 2 sets. She needed 3 sets against Siegemund in the 2nd round. She lost just 1 game to Wozniacki in the 3rd round. In the 4th round, Kalinskaya retired in set 2. 2 sets win over Svitolina in the q final. She reached the q finals in Berlin but retired when she felt ill.
12 month grass stats are better for Rybakina. Krejcikova serve really well in the q final but got tight when serving for the match and was broken. She will get tight if she takes the lead in sets today. Rybakina has struggled on serve at the start of matches quite often recently.
Lay Rybakina and remove liability at 1.55. Back Rybakina around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.45.

10th July

WTA Wimbledon

Ostapenko 1.50 v Krejcikova

Due to start at 1 pm

Ostapenko 5-2. Most recent June 2023, grass, Ostapenko in 2. She won their last 3 matches. Long term grass win %'s are better for Ostapenko. They are even in the last year.
Ostapenko reached the 2nd round last season. Easy win over Tomljanovic in the 1st round. Another easy win in the 2nd round. Easy 2 sets win over Pera in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over a disappointing Putintseva in the 4th round. 2nd round in Eastbourne.
Krejcikova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Kudermetova in 3 very tight sets in the 1st round. She was broken 5 times from 19 bp's. She needed 2 tie breaks to beat Volynets in the 2nd round. Her opponent retired in the 3rd round. In the 4th round, she beat Collins in 2 sets as underdog. Q finals in Birmingham.
12 month grass stats are close on serve and strongly favour Ostapenko on return.
Lay Ostapenko around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Back Ostapenko around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.

ATP Wimbledon

De Minaur v Djokovic 1.35  ##De Minaur Withdrew

Due to start at 3:30 pm

Djokovic 2-1. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Djokovic in 2. De Minaur won on hard in 2024, 2 sets. Djokovic won on hard in Jan 2023, straight sets.
Long term grass win %'s are better for Djokovic. They are even in the last year.
De Minaur reached the 2nd round last season. 3 tie breaks win over Duckworth in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Munar in the 2nd round. Walkover in the 3rd round when Pouille withdrew. 4 sets win over Fils in the 4th round. He won the title in Hertogenbosch.
Djokovic had knee surgery 4 weeks ago. He had a straight sets win in the 1st round. He dropped a set to Fearnley in the 2nd round. It was the 3rd set when he was 2 sets up. This isn't unusual in best of 5 sets matches when the leading player tries to cruise through set 3 to conserve energy. He lost the opening set to Popyrin in the 3rd round but won in 4 sets. Straight sets win over Rune in the 4th round.
This could be a tight match. Grass stats favour Djokovic on serve but favour De Minaur on return. Djokovic has held 95% of his service games.
Lay Djokovic around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Djokovic around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50. 4 sets.

ATP Wimbledon

Musetti v Fritz 1.25

Due to start at 3 pm

Fritz 2-1. Most recent April 2024, clay, 2 sets. Fritz won indoors in 2022, 2 sets. He won on grass at Wimbledon 2022, straight sets. Grass win %'s are close but favour Fritz.
Musetti reached the 3rd round last season. 4 sets win over Lestienne in the 1st round. 5 sets win over Darderi in the 2nd round. 4 sets win over Comesana in the 3rd round. 4 sets win over Perricard in the 4th round. Semis in Stuttgart and final at Queens Club.
Fritz reached the 2nd round last year. Easy win in the 1st round over O'Connell. 4 sets win over Rinderknech in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Tabilo in the 3rd round. He beat Zverev in 5 sets in the 4th round. He won the title in Eastbourne. Q finals at Queens Club.
12 month grass stats are stronger for Fritz on serve and favour Musetti on return.
Lay Fritz and remove liability at 1.45. Back Fritz if he loses set 1. 4 sets.

9th July

WTA Wimbledon

Sun v Vekic 1.39

Due to start at 1 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are pretty even.
Sun has come through the qual rounds. She was favourite in every round. She beat Zheng as huge underdog in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Starodubtseva in the 2nd round. She beat Zhu in 2 tie breaks as slight underdog in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Raducanu in the 4th round.
Vekic reached the 3rd round last year. She needed 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Andreeva in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. She beat Badosa in 3 sets in the 4th round. Final in Bad Homburg in June. 2nd rounds in Berlin and Hertogenbosch.
Sun has played extremely well but has had some help from her opponents. Zheng served poorly. Against Zhu she faced a lot of bp's but was only broken twice. Raducanu started really poorly i the 4th round but took the 2nd set. She had an on going back issue during the match and then fell badly in the 3rd set.
Vekic has served extremely well. Only Badosa in the 4th round was able to break her 3 times. In her first 3 matches Vekic earned a lot of bp's.
I think this will be a great match. I give a slight edge to Vekic but she is price too low.
Lay Vekic around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Decent chance of 3 sets. As long as Vekic continues to serve well, she will win.

WTA Wimbledon

Paolini v Navarro 1.59

Due to start at 3:30 pm

Navarro 3-0. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, 3 sets. All their matches were on hard. The other 2 matches ended in 2 sets in 2024 and 2023. Grass win %'s in the last year are better for Paolini.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Minnen in the 2nd round. She beat Andreescu in the 3rd round in 2 sets. She was 2-5 down in the 3rd set against Keys in the fourth round when Keys got injured and retired at 5-5. Paolini has a poor grass record but has improved her game immensely in the last year or so and reached the semis in Eastbourne.
Navarro lost in the 1st round last season. Easy win in the 1st round. She beat Osaka in the 2nd round in 2 sets. 3 sets win over Shnaider in the 3rd round. She was a surprise straight sets winner over Gauff in the 4th round. Semis in Bad Homburg in June.
12 month grass stats are better for Navarro on serve. Stats for the tournament also favour her on serve. She played a superb match against Gauff in the last round. Her level is likely to drop in this match but I still think she will win. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Back Navarro around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Back Navarro if she loses set 1.

8th July

WTA Wimbledon

Svitolina 1.55 v Wang

Due to start at 2 pm

1st meeting. 12 month grass win %'s are even.
Svitolina reached the semis last season. She needed 3 sets against Linette in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Niemeier in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Jabeur in the 3rd round. She lost to Wozniacki in 3 tight sets in Bad Homburg.
Wang reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Tomova in 3 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Pegula in the 2nd round. Another 3 setter against Dart in the 3rd round. She had a couple of tough draws in 2024 facing Kasatkina and Jabeur.
12 month grass stats are better for Svitolina. Hard stats in 2024 also favour Svitolina.
Back Svitolina around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Wimbledon

Collins 1.53 v Krejcikova

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Krejcikova 1-0 (Sep 2023, hard, 3 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Krejcikova.
Collins reached the 2nd round last year. She had not played since the French Open in May. 2 sets win over Tauson in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Galfi in the 2nd round. Another 2 sets win over Haddad Maia in the 3rd round.
Krejcikova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Kudermetova in 3 very tight sets in the 1st round. She was broken 5 times from 19 bp's. She needed 2 tie breaks to beat Volynets in the 2nd round. Her opponent retired in the 3rd round. Q finals in Birmingham.
12 month grass stats are better for Krejcikova on serve but strongly favour Collins on return. Hard stats for 2024 are much better for Collins.
Back Collins around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets but I have to favour Collins to win.

7th July

WTA Wimbledon

Badosa 1.89 v Vekic

Due to start  ?

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Badosa.
Badosa reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Muchova in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Fruhvirtova in the 2nd round. Tough 3 sets win over Kasatkina in the 3rd round. Q finals in Bad Homburg.
Vekic reached the 3rd round last year. She needed 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Andreeva in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. Final in Bad Homburg in June. 2nd rounds in Berlin and Hertogenbosch.
Badosa played a really strong match against Kasatkina. her serve stats weren't amazing but she was broken just 4 times in 3 sets. Vekic had 17 bp's against Yastremska. She broke her 5 times. She was only broken twice in 3 sets.
Lay Vekic around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets but i give Badosa the edge.

WTA Wimbledon

Navarro v Gauff 1.30

Due to start at 5 pm

Gauff 1-0 (Jan 2024, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are strong for both players but favour Gauff.
Navarro lost in the 1st round last season. Easy win in the 1st round. She beat Osaka in the 2nd round in 2 sets. 3 sets win over Shnaider in the 3rd round. Semis in Bad Homburg in June.
Gauff lost in the 1st round last season. Easy win over Dolehide in the 1st round this year. Another easy win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kartal in the 3rd round. Semis in Berlin in June.
Navarro's 2nd serve was below average against Shnaider but her 1st serve % was good. There were 12 breaks in their 3 sets. She didn't face a bp against Osaka which probably says more about Osaka than it does about Navarro.
Gauff has not been tested so far. She has been broken twice in 3 matches. That could be an issue for her if Navarro starts the match well.
Lay Gauff around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back Gauff around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55. Chance of 3 sets.

6th July

WTA Wimbledon

Krejcikova 1.47 v Maneiro

Due to start at 11 am

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are quite even.
Krejcikova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Kudermetova in 3 very tight sets in the 1st round. She was broken 5 times from 19 bp's. She needed 2 tie breaks to beat Volynets in the 2nd round. Q finals in Birmingham.
Maneiro lost in the 1st round as qualifier last year. She only played 2 grass events before this tournament. She beat defending champion Vondrousova in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bucsa in the 2nd round.
12 month grass stats are a little better for Maneiro but its a really small sample of matches. Hard stats in 2024 are much better for Krejcikova.
Back Krejcikova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Wimbledon

Jabeur 1.54 v Svitolina

Due to start at 3:30 pm

Svitolina 4-1. Most recent Oct 2021, hard, Jabeur in 2. Svitolina's last win was in 2019 on hard when Jabeur retired. Grass win %'s are better for Jabeur.
Jabeur reached the final last year. Easy win in the 1st and 2nd rounds. Q finals in Nottingham and Berlin. She retired from Berlin.
Svitolina reached the semis last season. She needed 3 sets against Linette in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Niemeier in the 2nd round. She lost to Wozniacki in 3 tight sets in Bad Homburg.
12 month grass stats are better for Jabeur. Hard stats in 2024 are better for Svitolina. Jabeur retired from Berlin in June and has not been tested so far. Svitolina should have beaten Linette in straight sets but lost the 2nd set in a tie break. At least she has had to "dig deep" in one of her matches. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Jabeur around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

5th July

WTA Wimbledon

Kasatkina 1.78 v Badosa

Due to start at 11 am

Kasatkina 3-2. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Badosa IN 2. Kasatkina won by walkover in 2023. She won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Grass win %'s are better for Kasatkina.
Kasatkina reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win in the 1st round over Zhang. She did not lose a game in the 2nd round. She won the title in Eastbourne.
Badosa reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Muchova in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Fruhvirtova in the 2nd round. Q finals in Bad Homburg.
12 month grass stats are better for Badosa on serve and favour Kasatkina on return. Hard stats in 2024 favour Badosa on serve and Kasatkina on return. Kasatkina has the higher ROI on grass.
Back Kasatkina around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Fair chance of 3 sets.

WTA Wimbledon

Paolini 1.86 v Andreescu

Due to start at 1 pm

Paolini 1-0 (June 2024, clay, 3 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Andreescu.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Minnen in the 2nd round. She has a poor grass record but has improved her game immensely in the last year or so and reached the semis in Eastbourne.
Andreescu reached the 3rd round last year. 2 sets win over Cristian in the 1st round. She won in 2 close sets over Noskova in the 2nd round. Final in Hertogenbosch.
12 month grass stats favour Andreescu on serve. Return stats and predicted holds are better for Paolini.
Back Paolini around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Good chance of 3 sets.

4th July

WTA Wimbledon

Osorio v Haddad Maia 1.56

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Maia 1-0 (May 2023, clay, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Maia.
Osorio lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win over Davis in the 1st round. She withdrew from the qual rounds in Eastbourne.
Maia reached the 4th round last season. She beat Frech in 2 close sets. 2nd round in Bad Homburg.
Grass stats in the last year favour Maia on serve. Hard stats in 2024 also favour Maia.
Back Maia around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA Wimbledon

Collins 1.27 v Galfi

Due to start at 2:30 pm

Galfi 1-0 (March 2023, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Galfi.
Collins reached the 2nd round last year. She has not played since the French Open in May. 2 sets win over Tauson in the 1st round.
Galfi reached the 3rd round last season. She has come through the qual rounds this season. Easy win over Sherif in the 1st round. Semis in Hertogenbosch as qualifier.
12 month grass stats are better for Galfi. Hard stats in 2024 are better for Collins.
Lay Collins around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back Collins around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.

3rd July

WTA Wimbledon

Kartal 1.77 v Burel

Due to start at 11 am

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Kartal.
Kartal lost in the 1st round last year. This year she has come through the qual rounds. She beat Cirstea in 3 sets in the 1st round.
Burel lost in the qual rounds last season. 2 sets win over Lys as underdog. She took Siniakova to 3 sets in bad Homburg.
Grass stats in the last year are better for Kartal. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Kartal around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

WTA Wimbledon

Zhu v Pavlyuchenkova 1.42

Due to start at 2:30 pm

Zhu 1-0 (Sep 2014, hard, Pavlyuchenkova retired. Grass win %'s are a little better for Pavlyuchenkova.
Zhu lost to Swiatek in the 1st round last season. Easy win over Begu in the 1st round. 2nd round in Birmingham. She reached the semis in Birmingham in 2023.
Pavlyuchenkova has played 1 match on grass in the last year before this tournament. She beat Townsend in 2 sets in the 1st round. She lost to Linette in Eastbourne as favourite.
Grass stats in the last year favour Pavlyuchenkova on serve but its a really small sample size. Hard stats in 2024 are much better for Pav.
Back Pavlyuchenkova around 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.

2nd July

ATP Wimbledon

Etcheverry 1.63 v Nardi

Due to start at 11 am

Etcheverry 1-0 (Aug 2020, clay, 2 sets). Both have poor grass results.
Etcheverry reached the 2nd round last year. He lost his 2 grass matches in 2024 but performed well in both.
Nardi lost in the qual rounds. 2nd round in Hertogenbosch.
12 month grass stats are better for Etcheverry on serve. Return stats are better for Nardi. Same pattern in the hard stats for 2024.
Back Etcheverry around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. 4 sets.

WTA Wimbledon

Pera v Potapova 1.39

Due to start at 1 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2022, clay, Potapova in 3. Pera won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Grass win %'s favour Potapova.
Pera lost in the 1st round last year. CH final in June.
Potapova reached the 3rd round last season. Semis in Birmingham. She retired in Eastbourne.
12 month grass stats are better for Potapova. The retirement in Eastbourne was probably precautionary to be ready for this week.
Back Potapova around 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.

WTA Wimbledon

Jones v Martic 1.46

Due to start at 4:30 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are a little better for Martic.
Jones reached the q finals in Nottingham last month. She only had 1 win on grass before that tournament and that was in the Wimbledon juniors.
Martic reached the 3rd round last season. Her recent form has not been her best.
Not many grass matches to assess in the last year. WTA hard stats favour Martic on serve and Jones on return.
Lay Martic around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.

1st July

WTA Wimbledon

Minnen 1.58 v Watson

Due to start at 11 am

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Minnen.
Minnen lost in the 1st round as qualifier last year. Q finals in Hertogenbosch.
Watson lost to Krejcikova in the 1st round last season. 2nd round in Nottingham. She had reached the semis in Nottingham 2023.
Grass stats in the last 12 months favour Watson on serve and favour Minnen on return. Hard stats in 2024 also favour Watson on serve and Minnen on return. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Minnen around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.80. Lay set 1 winner. If Watson can get inspiration from the crowd she has a decent chance.

WTA Wimbledon

Rus v Yuan 1.50

Due to start at 1 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Yuan.
Rus lost in the qual rounds last year. She has not won a main draw WTA grass match since 2019.
Yuan lost to Azarenka in 3 sets in the 1st round last year as qualifier. She took Kasatkina to 3 sets last week. 2nd round in Hertogenbosch, beating Shnaider in 3 sets.
Back Yuan around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.

WTA Wimbledon

Badosa 1.90 v Muchova

Due to start at 5:30 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Badosa in 3. Muchova won on grass in 2021, 2 sets. Grass win %'s are close but favour Muchova.
Badosa reached the 2nd round last year. Q finals in Bad Homburg.
Muchova lost in the 1st round last season. Q finals in Eastbourne but she withdrew before the q final. That was the only tournament for her in 2024.
12 month grass stats are close but favour Badosa overall.
Chance of 3 sets if Muchova is healthy. Lay Muchova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.

30th June

No suggested trades today. I'll be back with Wimbledon on Monday.

29th June

WTA Bad Homburg

Shnaider v Vekic 1.75

Due to start at 11:30 am

1st meeting. Grass win %'s in the last year are better for Shnaider.
Shnaider beat Kerber in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She beat Yastremska as slight underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Badosa as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over Navarro in the semi final as underdog. She reached the q finals last week in Birmingham. She is inexperienced on grass but has played well in the last 3 weeks.
Vekic beat Bronzetti in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Alexandrova in the 2nd round as underdog. She had a walkover in the q final when Siniakova pulled out. 2 sets win over Tomova in the semi final. She reached 2nd rounds in the last 2 weeks. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Grass stats in the last year favour Shnaider over all but some serve stats favour Vekic. Hard stats in 2024 favour Shnaider.
Fair chance of 3 sets. Shnaider had an MTO in her match with Navarro but dominated the rest of the match.
Lay Vekic around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95.

ATP Mallorca

Ofner v Tabilo 1.75

Due to start at 2 pm

Ofner 1-0 (Jan 2023, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Tabilo.
Ofner beat Munar in a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round and beat Darderi in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Michelsen in the q final. In the semi final, he beat Jubb in 2 tight sets. There were just breaks in the match. He reached a CH final in June 2023. he lost his 4 grass matches in the last 12 months but performed well in them. he lost in 3 close sets to Zhang last week and lost to Draper in 2 tie breaks the week before that.
Tabilo has a little more grass experience. He reached the 2nd round last week, beating Davidovich Fokina in 3 sets. 2 sets win over Shevchenko in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Mensik in the q final. Monfils was beaten in a 3rd set t9e break in the semi final. 2nd round at Wimbledon in 2022.
12 month grass stats are better for Tabilo overall. Hard stats in 2024 also favour Tabilo.
Back Tabilo around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

28th June

WTA Eastbourne

Fernandez v Keys 1.52

Due to start at 11 am

Keys 1-0 (June 2021, clay, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Keys.
Fernandez beat Krejcikova in 3 sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Krueger in the 2nd round. Easy win over Dart in the q final. She reached the q finals in Birmingham last week. 2nd round at Wimbledon.
Keys won the title last year. She beat Kalinina in 2 sets. She had a walkover in the q final when Muchova pulled out. She reached the q finals at Wimbledon.
12 month stats are better for Keys on serve. Return stats are pretty even. Slight edge to Fernandez. Hard stats in 2024 are better for Keys on serve.
Back Keys around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

WTA Bad Homburg

Shnaider v Navarro 1.64

Due to start at 1 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2024, clay, Shnaider in 3. Navarro won on grass in 2019, 2 sets. Long term grass win %'s are better for Navarro.
Shnaider beat Kerber in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She beat Yastremska as slight underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Badosa as underdog in the q final. She reached the q finals last week in Birmingham. She is inexperienced on grass but has played well in the last 3 weeks.
Navarro reached the semis last year. She beat Cristian in 2 sets in the 1st round. She made a slow start against Stearns in the 2nd round and was 3-1 down. In the q final, Wozniacki looked the better player but retired early in set 3. She lost just 2 more games in the match.
12 month grass stats are better for Shnaider. Hard stats in 2024 favour Shnaider on serve. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Lay Navarro around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.90. Lay set 1 winner.

27th June

WTA Bad Homburg

Vekic v Siniakova 1.76

Due to start at 2 pm

Siniakova 4-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Siniakova in 2. Vekic won on hard in 2019, 2 sets. Siniakova won their only grass meeting in 2016. Grass win %'s are better for Siniakova.
Vekic beat Bronzetti in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Alexandrova in the 2nd round as underdog. She reached 2nd rounds in the last 2 weeks. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Siniakova won the title last season. She beat Burel in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Samsonova in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals as qualifier in Berlin last week. She had a fall in the q final just as she was getting on top of Pegula. 2nd round at Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats favour Siniakova overall. Hard stats in 2024 are better for Vekic on serve but strongly favour Siniakova on return.
Fair chance of 3 sets but I favour Siniakova.
Back Siniakova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

WTA Eastbourne

Keys 1.48 v Muchova

Due to start at 3:30 pm

Keys 1-0 (Sep 2019, hard, 2 close sets). Grass win %'s are much better for Muchova.
Keys won the title last year. She beat Kalinina in 2 sets. She reached the q finals at Wimbledon.
Muchova had not played since the US Open semis in Sep. She came through the 1st round when Avanesyan retired in set 1. 2 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals at Wimbledon in 2021.
Muchova served well against Linette and was not broken.
Back Keys around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

26th June

WTA Bad Homburg

Navarro 1.33 v Stearns

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Navarro 3-1. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Navarro in 3 sets. She won their last 3 matches, all on clay. Stearns won on hard in Oct 2019, 3 sets. Grass win %'s are better for Navarro.
Navarro reached the semis last year. She beat Cristian in 2 sets in the 1st round.
Stearns won 2 of her 5 grass matches before this week. She beat a lucky loser in the 1st round after Putintseva withdrew.
Back Navarro around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.45.

WTA Bad Homburg

Blinkova v Haddad Maia 1.48

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Maia 3-0. Most recent May 2022, clay, Maia in 2. She won on hard in 2019. Grass win %'s are better for Maia.
Blinkova reached the q finals last season. She beat Andreescu in the 1st round. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Maia beat Korpatsch in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 4th round at Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats are better for Maia on serve. Recently, she has started matches well but struggled a little more as the match goes on.
Back Maia around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

25th June

WTA Bad Homburg

Noskova 1.57 v Tomova

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Noskova 1-0 (June 2022, clay, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are a little better for Tomova.
Noskova reached the 2nd round last season. She beat Townsend in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2nd round in Berlin last week and took Jabeur to 3 sets.
Tomova lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win over Maria in the 1st round. 2nd round at Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats favour Noskova on serve but strongly favour Tomova on return. Hard stats in 2024 favour Noskova on serve. Good chance of 3 sets. Recent performances are better for Noskova.
Back Noskova around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA Eastbourne

Boulter 1.45 v Martic

Due to start at 2:15 pm

Martic 1-0 (June 2023, grass, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Boulter.
Boulter lost to Martic in the 1st round last year. Title in Nottingham. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Martic reached the q finals as lucky loser last season. She lost in the qual rounds this week. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats are better for Martic but she only played 2 matches. Hard stats in 2024 are stronger for Boulter.
Back Boulter around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

24th June

WTA Eastbourne

Linette v Pavlyuchenkova 1.78

Due to start at 11 am

3-0. Most recent May 2023, clay, 2 sets. Pavlyuchenkova in 2. She won indoors in 2019 and on hard in 2016. Grass win %'s are better for Linette.
Linette has come through the qual rounds. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Pavlyuchenkova reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon in 2021. She has not played on grass since.
Hard stats in 2024 are better for Pavlyuchenkova.
Lay Pavlyuchenkova around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets.

WTA Bad Homburg

Andreescu 1.32 v Blinkova

Due to start at 3 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Andreescu.
Andreescu reached the 2nd round last year. She reached the final in Hertogenbosch 2 weeks ago. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Blinkova reached the q finals last season. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats are stronger for Andreescu.
Back Andreescu around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.

23rd June

ATP Halle

Sinner 1.36 v Hurkacz

Due to start at 1 pm

H2H 2-2. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Sinner in 3. Hurkacz won on hard in Feb 2022, 2 sets. Grass win %'s are pretty even.
Sinner reached the q finals last year. This week he lost the 1st set to Griekspoor. He needed 3 sets against Marozsan in the 2nd round. He beat Struff in a 3rd set tie break in the q final. 2 sets win over Zhang in the semis. Both sets were really close. He reached the semis at Wimbledon, losing to Djokovic.
Hurkacz reached the semis last year. Straight sets win over Cobolli in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Duckworth. He beat Giron in 2 close sets in the q final. 2 sets win over Zverev in the semis. 4th round at Wimbledon. Semis in Stuttgart. He won this title in 2022.
12 month grass stats are fairly even on serve but strongly favour Sinner on return.
Lay Sinner around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Sinner above 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.

WTA Challenger Gaiba

Parks v Pera 1.78

Due to start at 2:45 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Parks.
Parks needed a 3rd set tie break in the qual round as strong pre match favourite. Easy win over Todoni in the 2nd round as underdog. She beat Montgomery in 3 sets as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win in the semi final. 2nd round at Wimbledon. 2nd round in Berlin as qualifier in 2022.
Pera had not lost a set this week. She was also moderate favourite in each round. She needed 3 sets against Errani in the semi final. 2nd round in Birmingham 2023.
Grass stats on all tours in the last year favour Parks on serve. Stats for the tournament also favour her on serve.
Lay Pera around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10. Fair chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Parks to win.

22nd June

WTA Birmingham

Cocciaretto v Putintseva 1.81

Due to start at 11 am

Putintseva 1-0 (Jan 2024, hard, 3rd set tie break). Grass win %'s are better for Cocciaretto.
Cocciaretto beat defending champ Ostapenko in 2 sets. 2 sets win over Stephens in the 2nd round. I had expected Stephens to have low motivation in her first round match. For some reason she saved the tank for the 2nd round. Cocciaretto beat Shnaider in 3 sets in the q final. Both players had MTO's. Cocciaretto reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Putintseva's last decent result on grass was a q final at this tournament in 2019. She beat Burel in 2 sets in the 1st round this week. Very easy win over Kalinina in the 2nd round. She needed 3 sets against Dolehide in the q final. She was a set and a break ahead and served for the match in the 2nd set.
12 month grass stats are better for Putintseva on serve. Hard stats in 2024 also favour Putintseva.
Back Putintseva around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Good chance of 3 sets.

WTA Birmingham 

Tomljanovic v Potapova 1.56

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Tomljanovic 2-1. Most recent Oct 2021, indoor, Tomljanovic in 3. She won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. Potapova won indoors in 2020, 2 sets. Long term grass win %'s are better for Potapova. They are quite even in the last year. Tomljanovic has 1 less loss.
Tomljanovic had an easy win over Blinkova in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Zhu in the 2nd round. She beat Fernandez in 3 sets as underdog in the q final. Fernandez was a set and a break ahead but pretty much fell apart. She reached an ITF q final this month. Q finals at Wimbledon 2022. She has had some injury issues in the last 12 months.
Potapova reached the semis last year. Straight sets win over Avanesyan in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bronzetti in the 2nd round. Easy win over Krejcikova who won 8 points on serve in the 1st set. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
This Tomljanovic's only grass tournament in the last 12 months. Hard stats in 2024 are much better for Potapova.
Back Potapova around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

21st June

WTA Birmingham

Putintseva 1.38 v Dolehide

Due to start at 2 pm

Putintseva 1-0 (Apr 2024, clay, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are close but favour Putintseva.
Putintseva's last decent result on grass was a q final at this tournament in 2019. She beat Burel in 2 sets in the 1st round this week. Very easy win over Kalinina in the 2nd round.
Dolehide lost in the qual rounds last season. She lost in the qual rounds again this week. She beat Pliskova in a 3rd set tie break. In the 2nd round, Mertens retired.
Back Putintseva around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.

WTA Birmingham

Fernandez 1.64 v Tomljanovic

Due to start at 3:30 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Tomljanovic.
Fernandez had an easy win over Sorribes Tormo in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Golubic in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon. 2nd round in Bad Homburg.
Tomljanovic had an easy win over Blinkova in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Zhu in the 2nd round. She reached an ITF q final this month. Q finals at Wimbledon 2022. She has had some injury issues in the last 12 months.
12 month grass stats are better for Tomljanovic overall. Hard stats in 2024 are stronger for Fernandez.
Back Fernandez around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability round 1.70.

20th June

WTA Berlin

Vondrousova 1.59 v Kalinskaya

Due to start at 10 am

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are fairly even.
Vondrousova reached the q finals last year. 2 sets win over Masarova in the 1st round. She won the Wimbledon title.
Kalinskaya had not played on grass since June 2022. She beat Hibino in 3 sets in the 1st round.
Back Vondrousova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Berlin

Pegula 1.68 v Vekic

Due to start at 1 pm

Pegula 1-0 (June 2022, grass, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are fairly even.
Pegula reached the 2nd round last week. Q finals at Wimbledon. Q finals in Eastbourne.
Vekic reached the final last year. 3 sets win over Niemeier in the 1st round. 2nd round in Hertogenbosch last week. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Vekic has lost the opening set in her last 2 matches 6-1. Pegula was poor last week against Krunic. 12 month grass stats are better for Pegula.
Back Pegula around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

ATP Queens Club

Mpetshi Perricard 1.62 v Harris

Due to start at 3 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are a little better for Perricard.
Perricard has come through the qual rounds. He beat Shelton in 2 sets in the 1st round. He lost to Musetti in 2 tie breaks in the 1st round in Stuttgart after getting through the qual rounds.
Harris lost in the qual rounds last season. This week he beat Etcheverry in 3 sets as slight underdog. 2 CH semis this month.
Harris has more grass experience but almost all his matches were in Challengers or ITF's. Recent performances are better for Perricard.
Back Perricard around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Chance of 3 sets.

19th June

WTA Berlin

Vondrousova 1.63 v Kalinskaya

Due to start at 2:30 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are fairly even.
Vondrousova reached the q finals last year. 2 sets win over Masarova in the 1st round. She won the Wimbledon title.
Kalinskaya had not played on grass since June 2022. She beat Hibino in 3 sets in the 1st round.
Back Vondrousova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

ATP Queens Club

Raonic v Fritz 1.72

Due to start at 4:30 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Raonic.
Raonic beat Norrie in a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round. He reached the q finals last week. 2nd round at Wimbledon.
Fritz reached the 2nd round last season. Easy win over Daniel in the 1st round. 2nd round at Wimbledon.
Recent performances are better for Raonic.
Lay Fritz around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.00. Chance of 3 sets.

18th June

WTA Birmingham

Uchijima v Dart 1.71

Due to start at 12:30 pm

1st meeting. Dart has more grass experience.
Uchijima has come through the qual rounds. She never won a main draw grass match on any tour.
Dart reached the q finals last season. She took Boulter to 3 sets last week. 2nd round in Eastbourne.
12 month grass stats are better for Dart on serve.
Back Dart around 2.20 to 2.30.

WTA Birmingham

Shnaider 1.31 v Rajecki

Due to start at 2 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Rajecki.
Shnaider doesn't have a good record on grass. She won 1 of her 5 matches. She started well in her match last week against Yuan but lost in 3 sets.
Rajecki has come through the qual rounds. She has not won a main draw grass match on any tour.
Back Shnaider around 1.80 to 1.90.

17th June

WTA Birmingham

Bronzetti v Frech 1.46

Due to start at 11 am

Bronzetti 1-0 (Mar 2024, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are even.
Bronzetti reached the final in Bad Homburg.
Frech reached the q finals as qualifier last season. Q finals in Nottingham last week, losing to eventual champ Boulter.
12 month grass stats are better for Frech. Hard stats in 2024 favour Frech.
Back Frech around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Birmingham

Ostapenko 1.38 v Cocciaretto

Due to start at 12:30 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Ostapenko.
Ostapenko won the title last year. 2nd round at Wimbledon. Q finals in Eastbourne.
Cocciaretto reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats are better for Ostapenko. Hard stats in 2024 also favour her.
Back Ostapenko around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.45.

16th June

WTA Nottingham

Pliskova 1.53 v Parry

Due to start at 11 am

1st meeting. Long term grass win %'s are even.
Pliskova beat Parks in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round over Watson. She beat Jabeur in 3 tight sets in the q final. She reached the 2nd round in Eastbourne.
Parry beat Bucsa in 2 sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Saville in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Birrell in the q final. She reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon. 3rd round at Wimbledon 2022.
Pliskova served well against Jabeur and was broken once in 3 sets. Parry has served well this week. Broken 4 times in 3 matches.
12 month grass stats are a little better for Pliskova on serve and favour Parry on return.
Back Pliskova around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Challenger Valencia

Tomova 1.52 v Li

Due to start at 3:30pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are even.
Tomova needed 3 sets in the 1st and 2nd rounds but has a very easy win in the q final. She was favourite in the first 3 rounds. She needed 3 sets in the semis. 2nd round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat. Most of her best results on clay are in Challengers.
Li reached the q finals as qualifier last year. She beat Trevisan in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. Very easy win in the q final. She beat Maneiro as underdog in 3 sets in the semi final. Her best results in the last 12 months were in ITF's.
12 month clay stats on all tours are better for Li on serve. Return stats favour Tomova. Very good chance of 3 sets.
Back Tomova above 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

15th June

ATP Stuttgart

Nakashima v Draper 1.51

Due to start at 11 am

H2H 1-1. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Draper in 3. Nakashima won indoors in Nov 2022, 4 sets. Long term grass win %'s are better for Nakashima.
Nakashima beat Eubanks in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Gasquet in the 2nd round. Walkover in the q final. He reached a CH semi last week. 4th round at Wimbledon 2022.
Draper beat Ofner in 2 tie breaks in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Giron in the 2nd round. 3rd set tie break win over Tiafoe in the q final. He reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon 2022 and the semis in Eastbourne in 2022. He did not play on grass in 2023. He has had some tough draws in 2024 but reached a final and a semi on hard.
12 month grass stats favour Draper on serve. Hard stats in 2024 favour Draper overall. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Draper around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Nottingham  (from yesterday)

Parry 1.60 v Birrell

Due to start at 11 am

1st meeting. 12 month grass win %'s are better for Birrell.
Parry beat Bucsa in 2 sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Saville in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon. 3rd round at Wimbledon 2022.
Birrell has come through the qual rounds. 2 sets win over Appleton in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Stefanini despite having an MTO for her left knee. ITF q final in June. 2nd round in Hertogenbosch.
12 month grass stats are better for Birrell. Parry has the better ROI on grass. Hard stats in 2024 are better for Parry.
Back Parry around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Hertogenbosch

Galfi v Andreescu 1.46

Due to start at 2 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Galfi in the last 12 months.
Galfi lost in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds this week. Easy win over Rus in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Kudermetova as underdog. 2 sets win over Krunic in the q final. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Andreescu reached the 2nd round last year. She needed 3 sets as 1.18 favourite in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Yuan in the 2nd round. 3rd set tie break win over Osaka in the q final. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Galfi had strapping on her knee in the 2nd round and added strapping to her thigh in the q final.
Back Andreescu around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

14th June

WTA Nottingham

Frech vs Boulter 1.57

Due to start at 11:30

H2H 1-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Boulter in 3. Frech won indoors in 2017, 3 sets. Grass win %'s are better for Boulter.
Frech reached the q finals last year. 2 sets win over Hibino. 3 sets win over Maria in the 2nd round. Q finals in Birmingham. 3rd round at Wimbledon 2022.
Boulter won the title last season. 3 sets win over Dart in the 1st round. She beat Marino in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 3rd round in Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats are better for Frech on serve and favour Boulter on return. Hard stats in 2024 favour Boulter. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Boulter around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA Nottingham

Parry 1.60 v Birrell

Due to start at 4 pm

1st meeting. 12 month grass win %'s are better for Birrell.
Parry beat Bucsa in 2 sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Saville in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon. 3rd round at Wimbledon 2022.
Birrell has come through the qual rounds. 2 sets win over Appleton in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Stefanini despite having an MTO for her left knee. ITF q final in June. 2nd round in Hertogenbosch.
12 month grass stats are better for Birrell. Parry has the better ROI on grass. Hard stats in 2024 are better for Parry.
Back Parry around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.

13th June

WTA Nottingham

Jones v Krueger 1.43

Due to start at 1pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Krueger.
Jones had lost 10 of her 11 grass matches before this week. Her win was in the Wimbledon juniors in 2016. Her best results are on clay which is as different to grass as you can get. So, it was a surprise that she beat Dolehide in 2 sets in the 1st round.
Krueger beat Yafan Wang in the 1st round. She won a CH title in June 2023. Q final in Hertogenbosch.
Back Krueger around 1.80 to 1.95.

WTA Hertogenbosch

Montgomery v Niemeier 1.89

Due to start at 3:30 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Montgomery.
Montgomery has come through the qual rounds. She beat Linette in 3 sets in the 1st round. She faced 14 bp's but was not broken. CH semi in June 2023.
Niemeier Served really well in her 3 sets win over Tauson in the 1st round. She was broken 3 times from 4 bp's. She reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon and Berlin. Q finals at Wimbledon 2022.
12 month WTA stats are better for Montgomery on serve. I traded both matches and was more impressed by Niemeier.
Lay Montgomery around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

12th June

WTA Hertogenbosch

Vekic 1.49 v Minnen

Due to start at 11:30 am

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Vekic.
Vekic had an easy win over Korpatsch in the 1st round. She reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon. Final in Berlin in June 2023.
Minnen reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Masarova in 2 sets in the 1st round. Lost in the 1st round of Wimbledon as qualifier.
12 month grass stats are better for Vekic on serve.
Back Vekic around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA Nottingham

Marino v Boulter 1.39

Due to start at 2:30 pm

Boulter 1-0 (Aug 2023, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Boulter.
Marino lost in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds this week. She has a straight sets win over Golubic in the 1st round. Q finals in Birmingham.
Boulter won the title last season. 3 sets win over Dart in the 1st round. 3rd round in Wimbledon.
Back Boulter around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.

11th June

ATP Hertogenbosch     (from yesterday)

Napolitano v Mannarino 1.48

Due to start at 10 am

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Mannarino.
Napolitano has come through the qual rounds. He never won a main draw ATP grass match.
Mannarino reached the q finals last season. Title in Newport in July. 2nd round at Wimbledon. Final in Mallorca in June 2023. Q finals at Queens Club.
Back Mannarino around 1.90 to 2.00.

WTA Nottingham

Golubic v Marino 1.93

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Golubic 1-0 (Sep 2023, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Golubic.
Golubic reached the q final last season. 2nd round at Wimbledon as qualifier.
Marino last in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds this week. Q finals in Birmingham.
12 month stats are better for Golubic. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Golubic.
Lay Marino around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets.

WTA Hertogenbosch

Tauson v Niemeier

Due to start at 3:30 pm

Tauson 1-0 (Feb 2021, indoor, 2 sets). Long term grass win %'s are better for Niemeier.
Tauson has played 8 grass matches. Only 1 was not at Wimbledon.
Niemeier reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon and Berlin. Q finals at Wimbledon 2022.
12 month WTA stats are better for Tauson. She only played 3 matches which were in the Wimbledon qual rounds. 3 month stats on hard are better for Tauson. recent performances on all surfaces are better for Tauson.
Back Tauson around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

10th June

ATP Hertogenbosch

Napolitano v Mannarino 1.48

Due to start at 1:30 pm

1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Mannarino.
Napolitano has come through the qual rounds. He never won a main draw ATP grass match.
Mannarino reached the q finals last season. Title in Newport in July. 2nd round at Wimbledon. Final in Mallorca in June 2023. Q finals at Queens Club.
Back Mannarino around 1.90 to 2.00.

WTA Nottingham

Miyazaki v Fruhvirtova 1.60

Due to start at 3:30 pm

Fruhvirtova 1-0 (May 2024, clay, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Fruhvirtova.
Miyazaki reached the 2nd round in 2022.
Fruhvirtova has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Birmingham.
Most of Miyazaki's matches were in ITF's.
Back Fruhvirtova around 2.00 to 2.20.

9th June

ATP French Open

Zverev v Alcaraz 1.39

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Zverev 5-4. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Alcaraz in 2. Zverev won on hard in Jan 2024, 4 sets. Alcaraz won on clay in May 2023, 2 sets. Zverev won on clay at the French Open in 2022, 4 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Zverev.
Zverev reached the semis last season. He beat Nadal in straight sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Goffin in the 2nd round. He beat Griekspoor in a 5th set tie break in the 3rd round. Another 5 setter against Rune in the 4th round. Straight sets win over De Minaur in the q final and 4 sets win over Ruud in the semis. Title in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Title in Hamburg in July.
Alcaraz reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 1st round. 4 sets win over De Jong in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Korda in the 3rd round. Easy win over Aliassime in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Tsitsipas in the q final and a 5 sets win over Sinner in the semi final. Q finals in Madrid. Semis in Buenos Aires.
12 month stats are better for Zverev on serve and favour Alcaraz on return. Same pattern in the last 3 months and predicted holds favour Alcaraz. Zverev has spent 3 hours more on court in the tournament. Recent performances are a little better for Alcaraz. 4 or 5 sets.
Lay Alcaraz around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Challenger, Bari

Todoni 1.68 v Udvardy

Due to start at 7pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Todoni.
Todoni beat Ferro as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kalieva in the 2nd round. 2 sets win as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over Podoroska as underdog in the semi final. She reached the 2nd round in Bogota as qualifier in April. CH q final in Nov. CH q final in Sep.
Udvardy needed 3 sets in the 1st round. Lost just 1 game in the 2nd round. 2 tie breaks win over Zarazua as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over defending champion Zidansek. She reached an ITF final in April. ITF zemi in April. CH q final in Nov. 2nd round in Hamburg and 2 CH 2nd rounds in July.
3 month stats on all tours are very even. Stats for the tournament are better for Todoni.
Back Todoni around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.65. Decent chance of 3 sets.

Todoni in 3 sets.

8th June

WTA Challenger, Makarska

Volynets 1.75 v Wang

Due to start at 4 pm

Volynets 1-0 (Apr 2022, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Volynets.
Volynets had an easy win in the 1st round. Another 2 sets win in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Jeanjean in the q final. 2nd round at the French Open as qualifier. 2nd round in Rome. CH q final in May.
Wang needed 3 sets in the 1st round as 1.03 favourite. 2 sets win over Bagaric in the 2nd round. She came through the q final when Fruhvirtova retired in set 1. She reached the 2nd round at the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rabat and Madrid.
3 month stats are better for Volynets. Recent performances are better for Volynets.
Back Volynets around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

WTA Challenger, Bari

Zidansek 1.74 v Udvardy

Due to start at 7 pm

Zidansek 2-1. Most recent July 2023, clay, Zidansek in 2. Udvardy's win was on grass in 2022, 2 sets. Zidansek won on clay in 2017. Clay win %'s are better for Zidansek.
Zidansek won the title last year. Very easy win in the 1st round. She beat Oz in 2 tight sets in the 2nd round. 3rd set tie break win over Trevisan as slight underdog in the q final. 2nd round at the French Open as qualifier. CH semis in Sep.
Udvardy needed 3 sets in the 1st round. Lost just 1 game in the 2nd round. 2 tie breaks win over Zarazua as underdog in the q final. She reached an ITF final in April. ITF zemi in April. CH q final in Nov. 2nd round in Hamburg and 2 CH 2nd rounds in July.
3 month stats favour Zidansek on serve.
Back Zidansek around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

7th June

ATP French Open

Alcaraz 1.68 v Sinner

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Alcaraz 5-4. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Alcaraz in 3. Sinner won on hard in Oct and March 2023, 2 and 3 sets. Sinner won their last match on clay in 2022, 3 sets. Alcaraz won on clay in 2019, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Sinner.
Alcaraz reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 1st round. 4 sets win over De Jong in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Korda in the 3rd round. Easy win over Aliassime in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Tsitsipas in the q final. Q finals in Madrid. Semis in Buenos Aires.
Sinner reached the 2nd round last season. Straight sets win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Gasquet in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Kotov in the 3rd round. He dropped the first set to Moutet in the 4th round. 3 sets win over Dimitrov in the q final. Q finals in Madrid. Semis in Monte Carlo.
12 month stats are better for Sinner on serve and favour Alcaraz on return. Same pattern in the last 3 months. Predicted holds are a little better for Sinner. This should be a long match. 4 or 5 sets.
Lay Alcaraz around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.

ATP French Open

Ruud v Zverev 1.88

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Zverev 3-2. Most recent June 2023, French Open, clay, Ruud in straight sets. He won on hard in March 2022, 3 sets. All Zverev's wins were in 2021. 2 were in 2 sets and the other was by walkover. Clay win %'s are even.
Ruud reached the final last season. Easy win in the 1st round. He needed 5 sets against Fokina in the 2nd round. 4 sets win over Etcheverry in the 3rd round. He beat Fritz in 4 sets in the 4th round and had a walkover in the q final when Djokovic pulled out. Title in Geneva. 4th round in Madrid. Title in Barcelona. Final in Monte Carlo. Semis in Estoril. Final in Bastad in July.
Zverev reached the semis last season. He beat Nadal in straight sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Goffin in the 2nd round. He beat Griekspoor in a 5th set tie break in the 3rd round. Another 5 setter against Rune in the 4th round. Straight sets win over De Minaur in the q final. Title in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Title in Hamburg in July.
12 month stats favour Zverev on serve and favour Ruud on return. 3 month stats also favour Zverev on serve and favour Ruud on return. Predicted holds are pretty even.
This looks really tight. I give a slight edge to Zverev.
Lay Ruud around 1.65 and remove liability around 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

6th June

WTA Challenger, Makarska

Joint v Schmiedlova 1.64

Due to start at 12:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Joint.
Joint came through the qual round. Easy win over Ruzic in the 1st round. ITF final, semi and q final in May. 3 ITF semis in April.
Schmiedlova had an easy win over Hercog in the 1st round. She won a CH title in May. 2nd rounds in Madrid and Rouen. CH final in Sep. Q finals in Budapest in July.
12 month stats on all tours are better for Joint. Recent performances are better for Schmiedlova.
Back Schmiedlova around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA French Open

Paolini v Andreeva 1.74

Due to start at 4 pm

Andreeva 1-0 (Apr 2024, clay, 2 close sets). Clay win %'s are close but favour Andreeva.
Paolini reached the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Saville in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Baptiste in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Andreescu in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Avanesyan in the 4th round. She beat Rybakina in 3 sets in the q final. She served well but Rybakina was well below her best. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Final in Palermo in July. CH final in June.
Andreeva reached the 3rd round as qualifier last year. Straight sets win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Azarenka in the 2nd round. She only held serve once in the 2nd set. In the 3rd set she went a break ahead 3 times but was broken back. She took the lead a fourth time and this time held on. Very easy win over Stearns in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Gracheva in the 4th round. In the q final, Sabalenka was sick but still took the first set and kept the next 2 sets close. Sabalenka was a break up in the 3rd set. Q finals in Madrid. Q finals in Rouen.
3 month stats favour Paolini. Rybakina was sick in Rome and looked sick in the last round. She admitted as much in her press conference. Andreeva has pulled out of the doubles tournament. At 17 she is unlikely to have done that due to fatigue so perhaps she is carrying an injury.
Lay Andreeva around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.

5th June

WTA French Open

Paolini v Rybakina 1.29

Due to start at 1:15 pm

H2H 2-2. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Rybakina in 3. Paolini "won" in Feb 2024 when Rybakina withdrew. Her other win was by retirement. Clay win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Paolini reached the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Saville in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Baptiste in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Andreescu in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Avanesyan in the 4th round. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Final in Palermo in July. CH final in June.
Rybakina reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win over Minnen in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Rus in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Mertens in the 3rd round. Another 2 sets win over Svitolina in the 4th round. She was broken in her first 2 service games. Semis in Madrid. Title in Stuttgart.
3 month stats are better for Rybakina on serve.
Back Rybakina around 1.85 to 1.95.

ATP French Open

Zverev 1.45 v De Minaur

Due to start at 7:15 pm

Zverev 7-2. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Zverev in 3. De Minaur won in Jan 2024, 3 sets. Zverev won on clay in May 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Zverev.
Zverev reached the semis last season. He beat Nadal in straight sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Goffin in the 2nd round. He beat Griekspoor in a 5th set tie break in the 3rd round. Another 5 setter against Rune in the 4th round. Title in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Title in Hamburg in July.
De Minaur reached the 2nd round last year. Very easy win over Michelsen in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Munar. 4 sets win over Struff in the 3rd round. He beat Medvedev in 4 sets in the 4th round. Medvedev had a blisters problem. 4th round in Rome. Q finals in Monte Carlo.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Zverev on serve and favour De Minaur on return. Stats for the tournament are better for De Minaur overall.
4 or 5 sets. Lay Zverev around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

4th June

WTA French Open

Gauff 1.27 v Jabeur

Due to start at 10 am

Gauff 4-2. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Gauff in 2. Jabeur won on grass in 2022, 2 sets. Gauff leads 2-1 on clay. Clay win %'s are better for Gauff.
Gauff reached the q finals last year. Easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Zidansek in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. Easy win over Cocciaretto in the 4th round. Semis in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart.
Jabeur reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Vickery in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets in the 2nd round against Osorio. She beat Fernandez in 2 tight sets in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Tauson in the 4th round. Q finals in Madrid.
12 month clay stats are better for Gauff overall. 3 month stats favour Jabeur on serve and strongly favour Gauff on return.
Lay Gauff around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.50. Back Gauff around 1.85 to 2.00.

ATP French Open

Dimitrov v Sinner 1.23

Due to start at 1 pm

Sinner 3-1. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Sinner in 2. He won their last 3 matches, all on hard. Dimitrov won on clay in 2020, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Sinner.
Dimitrov reached the 4th round last season. Straight sets win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Marozsan in the 2nd round. 4 sets win over Bergs in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Hurkacz in the 4th round. 4th round in Rome. 3rd round in Monte Carlo.
Sinner reached the 2nd round last season. Straight sets win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Gasquet in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Kotov in the 3rd round. He dropped the first set to Moutet in the 4th round. Q finals in Madrid. Semis in Monte Carlo.
12 and 3 month stats strongly favour Sinner.
Lay Sinner and remove liability at 1.50. Back Sinner around 1.85 to 1.95.

3rd June

WTA French Open

Navarro v Sabalenka 1.32

Due to start at 11:30 am

Navarro 1-0 (Mar 2024, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Sabalenka.
Noskova lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. She beat Dart in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Errani in the 2nd round. She beat in form Keys in 2 tie breaks in the 3rd round. 3rd round in Rome. 2nd round in Stuttgart. CH q final in June.
Sabalenka reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 1st and 2nd rounds. In the 3rd round she struggled on serve in the 1st set against Badosa but won in 2 sets with a 6-0 2nd set. Final in Rome. Final in Madrid.
12 month stats are better for Sabalenka. Return stats are much better for Navarro. Same pattern in the last 3 months.
Lay Sabalenka around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back Sabalenka around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55. Lay set 1 winner. Slight edge to Sabalenka.

ATP French Open

Zverev 1.44 v Rune

Due to start at 7:15 pm

Rune 1-0 (Apr 2022, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Zverev.
Zverev reached the semis last season. He beat Nadal in straight sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Goffin in the 2nd round. He beat Griekspoor in a 5th set tie break in the 3rd round. Title in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Title in Hamburg in July.
Rune reached the q finals last season. Straight sets win over Evans in the 1st round. 5th set tie break win over Cobolli in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Kovalik in the 3rd round. Semis in Munich. Q finals in Monte Carlo.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Zverev.
Back Zverev around 2.10 to 2.202 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner. 4 sets

2nd June

WTA French Open

Danilovic v Vondrousova 1.38

Due to start at 10 am

Vondrousova 2-0. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets. She won on clay in 2016, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are fairly even.
Danilovic reached the 3rd round as qualifier last year. She made it through qualifying again this time. Very easy win over Trevisan in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Collins as huge underdog in the 2nd round. 3rd set tie break win over Vekic in the 3rd round. 2nd round in Madrid as qualifier. CH semi in April. CH title in July.
Vondrousova reached the 2nd round last season. Easy win over Masarova. 3 sets win over Volynets in the 2nd round. Easy win over Paquet in the 3rd round. Semis in Stuttgart.
12 month stats are better for Vondrousova overall. 3 month stats are stronger for Danilovic. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Vondrousova around 1.25 and remove liability around 1.65. Back Vondrousova around 2.00 to 2.20.

WTA French Open

Tauson v Jabeur 1.61

Due to start at 1:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Tauson.
Tauson reached the 3rd round as qualifier last season. 2 sets win over Maria in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Ostapenko as underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kenin in the 3rd round. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier. CH final in April.
Jabeur reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Vickery in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets in the 2nd round against Osorio. She beat Fernandez in 2 tight sets in the 3rd round. Q finals in Madrid.
12 month stats are a little better for Jabeur on serve. return stats and predicted holds favour Tauson. 3 month stats are a little better for Tauson overall. Stats for the tournament favour Tauson. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Jabeur around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.90. Lay set 1 winner.

Tauson has a great chance.

1st June

WTA French Open

Badosa v Sabalenka 1.27

Due to start at 12:30

Sabalenka 4-2. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Badosa retired in set 3. Sabalenka won on clay in 2023 and 2022, 3 and 3=2 sets. Their 3 clay matches have been very tight. Clay win %'s are better for Sabalenka.
Badosa needed 3 sets against Boulter in the 1st round. She beat Putintseva in 3 tight sets in the 2nd round. She reached the 4th round in Rome. She has had a lot of injury issues in the last year.
Sabalenka reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 1st and 2nd rounds. Final in Rome. Final in Madrid.
3 month stats are better for Sabalenka.
Lay Sabalenka around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45 to 1.55. Back Sabalenka around 1.90 to 2.00.

WTA French Open

Keys 1.59 v Navarro

Due to start at 3 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Navarro in 2. keys won on clay in Apr 2023, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Keys.
Keys reached the 2nd round last year. Easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Sherif in the 2nd round. Title in Strasbourg. Q finals in Rome. Semis in Madrid.
Noskova lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. She beat Dart in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Errani in the 2nd round. 3rd round in Rome. 2nd round in Stuttgart. CH q final in June.
12 month stats favour Keys. 3 month stats favour Keys on serve. Return stats are quite even with a slight edge to Navarro. Predicted holds are even in the 3 month stats. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Keys around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

31st May

WTA French Open

Potapova 1.47 v Wang

Due to start at 11:30 am

Potapova 1-0 (July 2022, hard, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are a little better for Wang.
Potapova reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Rakhimova in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Golubic in the 2nd round. 2nd rounds in Rome, Madrid and Stuttgart.
Wang reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Niemeier in 3 sets as underdog. 3 sets win over Tomova in the 2nd round. 2nd rounds in Rome, Madrid and Strasbourg.
12 month stats are better for Potapova. 3 month stats also favour her.
Back Potapova above 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA French Open

Fernandez v Jabeur 1.71

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Jabeur 3-0. Most recent April 2024, clay, 3 sets. All their matches went to 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Jabeur.
Fernandez reached the 2nd round last year. Easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round. 2nd round in Strasbourg and 3rd round in Madrid.
Jabeur reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Vickery in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets in the 2nd round against Osorio. Q finals in Madrid.
12 and 3 month stats favour Jabeur overall. Good chance of 3 sets. Stats for the tournament are better for Fernandez.
Lay Jabeur if she gets an early break and remove liability if Fernandez then gets a bp. Back Jabeur around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

30th May

WTA French Open 

Samsonova 1.59 v Anisimova

Due to start at 11:30 am

Anisimova 2-0. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Samsonova.
Samsonova reached the 2nd round last year. Very easy win over Linette in the 1st round. Semis in Strasbourg. 3rd round in Madrid.
Anisimova reached the 4th round in 2022. She has played very few clay matches since. She beat Sramkova in 2 close sets in the 1st round. 2nd round in Charleston.
12 month stats favour Anisimova. 3 month stats are close but favour Samsonova on serve. Chance of 3 sets. Recent performances are better for Samsonova.
Back Samsonova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

WTA French Open

Begu v Noskova 1.86

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Noskova 1-0 (Mar 2023, hard, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are better for Begu.
Begu reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win over Riera in the 1st round. 4th round in Rome. CH final in March. CH final in July.
Noskova lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. She beat Dart in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 3rd round in Rome. 2nd round in Stuttgart. CH q final in June.
Stats in 2024 are stronger for Begu. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Noskova around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10.

29th May

WTA French Open

Ostapenko 1.62 v Tauson

Due to start at 12:15

H2H 1-1. Most recent Feb 2024, indoor, Ostapenko in 3rd set tie break. Tauson won indoors in 2021, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Tauson.
Ostapenko reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Cristian in the 1st round. Q final in Rome. 4th round in Madrid.
Tauson reached the 3rd round as qualifier last season. 2 sets win over maria in the 1st round. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier. CH final in April.
12 month stats favour Tauson on serve. 3 month stats also favour her.
Chance of 3 sets. Lay Ostapenko around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA French Open

Bucsa v Cocciaretto 1.53

Due to start at 3:40 pm

Cocciaretto 1-0 (Nov 2018, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Cocciaretto.
Bucsa lost to Swiatek in the 1st round last season. 2 sets win in the 1st round. Q final in Bogota. CH q final in July.
Cocciaretto reached the 3rd round last year. 3 sets win over Haddad Maia in the 1st round. Q finals in Rabat. CH semi in March. Title in Lausanne.
12 and 3 month stats favour Cocciaretto on serve.
Back Cocciaretto around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.60.

28th May

WTA French Open

Bagaric v Stearns 1.48

Due to start at 1:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Bagaric.
Bagaric has come through the qual rounds. She plays mostly ITF's and has had a lot of success. 3 ITF titles in Feb/March. 2 ITF titles in Aug.
Stearns reached the 3rd round last year. She won the title in Rabat last week. 2 CH q finals in May.
Bagaric can be competitive.
Lay Stearns around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Back Stearns around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA French Open

Errani v Schmiedlova 1.82

Due to start at 3 pm

Schmiedlova 2-1. Most recent Oct 2022, hard, Schmiedlova in 2. She won on clay in 2015. Errani won on clay in 2015. Clay win %'s in the last 12 months favour Schmiedlova. Errani leads in 2024.
Errani reached the 2nd round last year. She made it through the qual rounds this year. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid. Semis in Bogota. CH final in Sep.
Schmiedlova reached the 4th round last season. CH title in May. 2nd rounds in Madrid and Rouen. CH final in Sep. Q finals in Budapest.
3 month WTA stats are better for Errani. Very good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Schmiedlova around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

There should be quite a few breaks of serve.  Slight edge to Errani and her experience. 

27th May

WTA French Open

Kalinina 1.58 v Osorio

Due to start at 12:15

Kalinina 2-0. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets. She won on clay in 2019, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Osorio.
Kalinina lost in the 1st round last year. Q finals in Strasbourg. Semis in Rouen.
Osorio reached the 2nd round as lucky loser last season. 2nd rounds in Rabat and Rome. CH semi in May. Title in Bogota in April. Q finals in Palermo.
3 month stats favour Kalinina on serve. return stats are quite even. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Kalinina around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA French Open

Riera v Begu 1.59

Due to start at 3:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are close but favour Begu.
Riera has come through the qual rounds. ITF titles in May and April. CH semi in March. CH semi and q final in Dec.
Begu reached the 3rd round last season. 4th round in Rome. CH final in March. CH final in July.
12 month stats on all tours favour Riera on serve. Return stats are quite even. Recent performances are better for Begu. She has come back from injury and has done well.
Chance of 3 sets. Back Begu around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

26th May

WTA French Open

Siegemund 1.67 v Kenin

Due to start at 12:00

Kenin 2-0. Most recent Sep 2019, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2019, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Siegemund.
Siegemund reached the q finals in Rabat. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier. Q finals in Bogota.
Kenin lost in the qual rounds last season. 3rd round in Rome.
12 month WTA stats favour Kenin on serve despite a much worse win %. 3 month stats favour her on serve but strongly favour Siegemund on return. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Siegemund around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA French Open

Sramkova v Anisimova 1.71

Due to start at 1:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Sramkova.
Sramkova has come through the qual rounds. 4th round in Rome as qualifier. CH final in Sep.
Anisimova reached the 4th round in 2022. She has played very few clay matches since. 2nd round in Charleston.
Lay Anisimova around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets.

25th May

WTA Rabat

Sherif 1.40 v Stearns

Due to start at 12:00

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Sherif.
Sherif reached the 2nd round last season. She has not lost a set this week and beat Carla in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the q final. She lost just 1 game to Rakhimova in the semis. CH final last week. 3rd round in Rome. CH final in May. 3rd round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo in July. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open.
Stearns reached the q finals last season. She needed 3 sets against Krunic in the 1st round. Easy win over Xiyu Wang in the 2nd round. In the q final she was 0-5 down in the 3rd set against Bronzetti but won the next 7 games. She beat Tomova in a 3rd set tie break in the semi final. CH q final last week. CH q final in May. 3rd round at the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats favour Sherif and her stats for the tournament are stronger.
Back Sherif around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability around 1.55.

WTA Strasbourg

Collins 1.67 v Keys

Due to start at 2 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2020, hard, Keys in 2. Collins won on hard in March 2018, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are close but favour Collins.
Collins had an easy win over Siniakova in the 1st round. Easy win over Burel in the q final. 2 sets win over Kalinina in the semis. She reached the semis in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Title in Charleston
Keys beat Xinyu Wang in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Linette in the q final. Very easy win over Samsonova in the semis. She reached the q finals in Rome and semis in Madrid. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 and 3 month WTA stats are better for Collins. neither player has lost a set this week. It should be close. Some value on Keys as underdog.
Lay Collins around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.90. Lay set 1 winner.

24th May

WTA Rabat

Stearns 1.75 v Tomova

Due to start at 12:00

Stearns 1-0 (Aug 2023, hard, 2 sets). Clay win %'s in the last year are clo0se but favour Stearns.
Stearns reached the q finals last season. She needed 3 sets against Krunic in the 1st round. Easy win over Xiyu Wang in the 2nd round. In the q final she was 0-5 down in the 3rd set against Bronzetti but won the next 7 games. CH q final last week. CH q final in May. 3rd round at the French Open.
Tomova had an easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Yafan Wang in the 2nd round. She beat Siegemund in 2 sets in the q final. Siegemund had an awful match. She reached a CH 2nd round last week. 2nd round in Charleston. CH q final in Sep and July. 2nd round in Strasbourg last season.
12 month stats favour Tomova on serve and Stearns on return. 3 month stats are close. Stats for the tournament favour Tomova.
Back Stearns around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.

WTA Rabat

Rakhimova v Sherif 1.35

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Sherif 1-0 (May 2024, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Sherif.
Rakhimova reached the 2nd round last year. Her opponent retired after 2 games in the 1st round. her 2nd round opponent also retired in the 1st set! She beat Cocciaretto in 2 sets in the q final. CH q final last week. Semis in Bogota in April. 3rd round at the French Open.
Sherif reached the 2nd round last season. She has not lost a set this week and beat Carla in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the q final. CH final last week. 3rd round in Rome. CH final in May. 3rd round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo in July. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month, 3 month and stats for the tournament favour Sherif.
Back Sherif around 1.85 to 2.00.

23rd May

ATP Lyon

Darderi 1.63 v Rinderknech

Due to start at 11:30 am

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Darderi.
Darderi beat Daniel in 2 close sets. He beat Mannarino in 2 tight sets. He reached the 3rd round in Rome. Semis in Houston. Q finals in Santiago. Title in Cordoba. He had a lot of Challenger success in the last year.
Rinderknech reached the 2nd round last season. He beat Evans in a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Tiafoe as underdog in 2 sets. Q finals in Kitzbuhel in Aug. CH title in July. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month stats are a little better for Rinderknech on serve but strongly favour Darderi on return. 3 month stats are quite close overall.
Back Darderi around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Rabat

Sorribes Tormo 1.75 v Sherif

Due to start at 2 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Sherif.
Tormo had a very easy win over Dart in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Podoroska in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd round in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo. 4th round at the French Open.
Sherif reached the 2nd round last season. She has not lost a set this week and beat Carla in the 2nd round. CH final last week. 3rd round in Rome. CH final in May. 3rd round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo in July. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month stats are better for Sherif on serve and favour Tormo on return. Same pattern in the 3 month stats and predicted holds favour Tormo. Good chance of 3 sets. Recent performances are better for Tormo.
Back Tormo around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

22nd May

WTA Rabat

Sherif 1.70 v Carle

Due to start at 2 pm

Sherif 1-0 (June 2023, clay, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are even.
Sherif reached the 2nd round last season. Easy win in the 1st round. CH final last week. 3rd round in Rome. CH final in May. 3rd round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo in July. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open.
Carle beat Rus in 2 sets as slight favourite in the 1st round. She reached the 3rd round in Madrid as qualifier. CH final in April. CH final and semi in Dec. CH q final in Sep.
12 month stats are better for Sherif on serve but strongly favour Carle on return. 3 month and 1 month stats favour Carle.
Lay Sherif around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95. Lay set 1 winner.

ATP Lyon

Gaston v Cerundolo 1.41

Due to start at 4:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are a little better for Gaston.
Gaston has come through the qual rounds. He was underdog in the 2nd qual round. He beat Galan in 2 tie breaks in the 1st round. 2 CH titles in July.
Cerundolo reached the final last season. Q finals in Madrid. Semis in Rio. Semis in Bastad. 4th round at the French Open.
12 month stats are better for Cerundolo overall. 3 month stats also favour him.
Back Cerundolo around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

21st May

WTA Strasbourg

Collins 1.44 v Siniakova

Due to start at 1:45 pm

Collins 2-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Collins in 2. She won indoors in Nov 2023, 2 sets. Siniakova won on hard in 2019, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Collins.
Collins reached the semis in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Title in Charleston.
Siniakova beat a terrible Putintseva in the 1st round. She won a CH title in May.
3 month WTA stats are stronger for Collins on serve.
Back Collins around 1.90 to 2.10.

WTA Strasbourg

Ferro v Kalinina 1.37

Due to start at 5 pm

1st meeting. 12 month clay win %'s are even.
Ferro beat Andreeva in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She reached a CH q final last week. CH semi in July.
Kalinina beat Pavlyuchenkova in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She reached the semis in Rouen. She reached the final in Rome in 2023.
12 and 3 month WTA stats are better for Ferro. Recent performances are better for ferro. She should be competitive.
Lay Kalinina around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.

20th May

WTA Strasbourg

Stephens 1.53 v Frech

Due to start at 12:00

Stephens 3-0. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, 2 sets. All their matches were on clay. Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Stephens reached the 3rd round in Madrid. Title in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open.
Frech has come through the qual rounds. CH q final in May. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats favour Stephens.
Back Stephens around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Rabat

Siegemund 1.46 v Blinkova

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Blinkova 1-0- (June 2023, grass, 3 sets). Clay win %'s favour Siegemund.
Siegemund reached the 2nd round in Rome as qualifier. Q finals in Bogota.
Blinkova retired from the 2nd round in Rome. 3rd round at the French Open.
12 month clay stats favour Blinkova on serve. 3 month stats favour Siegemund overall.
Back Siegemund above 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

19th May

WTA Strasbourg

Fernandez v Potapova 1.78

Due to start at 11 am

Fernandez 3-0. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, 2 sets. She won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Potapova.
Fernandez reached the 3rd round in Madrid. 2nd round at the French Open.
Potapova reached 2nd rounds in Rome, Madrid and Stuttgart. 3rd round at the French Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Potapova. 3 month stats favour her. decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Potapova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Challenger, Paris

Navarro 1.51 v Shnaider

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Navarro 1-0 (July 2019, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are better for Navarro. They are even in 2024.
Navarro has not lost a set. She didn't lose a game in the 1st round and lost 3 in the 2nd round. Another easy win in the q final over Ferro. She lost just 2 games to Ruse in the semis. CH q final in May. Q finals in Palermo. CH final in July. 2nd round of the French Open.
Shnaider had a straight sets win in the 1st round. She needed a 3rd set tie break against Jacquemot as strong favourite in the 2nd round. Easy win over Andreeva in the q final. 2 sets win over Gracheva in the semis. 3rd round in Rome. Semis in Hamburg in July. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month stats favour Navarro. 3 month stats favour Navarro on serve and favour Shnaider on return.
Back Navarro around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

18th May

WTA Challenger, Paris

Shnaider 1.47 v Gracheva

Due to start at 11:30 am

1st meeting. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Gracheva.
Shnaider had a straight sets win in the 1st round. She needed a 3rd set tie break against Jacquemot as strong favourite in the 2nd round. Easy win over Andreeva in the q final. 3rd round in Rome. Semis in Hamburg in July. 2nd round at the French Open.
Gracheva reached the semis last season. In the 1st round, Bogdan retired. She beat Volynets in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Boulter in the q final. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Gracheva. 3 month WTA stats are better for Gracheva.
Lay Shnaider around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Rome

Swiatek 1.31 v Sabalenka

Due to start at 4 pm

Swiatek 7-3. Most recent May 2024, clay, 3rd set tie break. She won on hard in Nov 2023, 2 sets. Sabalenka won on clay in May 2023, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Swiatek.
Swiatek reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Pera in the 2nd round. She went behind in set 2 against Putintseva in the 3rd round but won in 2 sets. She won a tough 2 sets match with Kerber in the 4th round. Easy win over Keys in the q final. Gauff kept the sets close in the semi final but Swiatek was broken once from 2 bp's. She won the title in Madrid. Semis in Stuttgart. Title at the French Open.
Sabalenka lost in the 2nd round last season. she needed 3 sets against Volynets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. She beat Svitolina in a 3rd set tie break in the 4th round. She lost the first set. 2 sets win over Ostapenko in the q final. 2 sets win over Collins in the semis. Final in Madrid. Semis of the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Swiatek. Their last 2 matches on clay went to 3 sets. They met in the Madrid final 2 weeks ago and they went to a 3rd set tie break. Sabalenka really should have won.
Lay Swiatek around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.50. Lay set 1 winner.

17th May

ATP Rome

Tabilo v Zverev 1.28

Due to start at 2:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Zverev.
Tabilo has not lost a set so far. He was underdog against Djokovic and Khachanov. CH title in May. Semis in Bucharest. Final in Santiago.
Zverev reached the 4th round last season. He has not lost a set so far. he was favourite in every round. 4th round in Madrid. Title in Hamburg in July. Q finals in Bastad. Semis at the French Open.
12 month and 3 month ATP stats are better for Zverev.
Back Zverev around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45. I don't think Tabilo will go quietly today.

ATP Rome

Jarry v Paul 1.90

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Paul 2-1. Most recent June 2023, clay, Jarry in 4 sets. Paul won on hard in 2020, 2 sets and on clay in 2014, 3 sets. 12 month clay win %'s are even. Paul leads in 2024.
Jarry lost in the 1st round last year. He dropped a set in the 3rd round and beat Tsitsipas in the q final as huge underdog. Final in Buenos Aires. 4th round at the French Open. Title in Geneva in May 2023.
Paul lost in the 2nd round last season. He didn't lose a set in his 1st 3 matches, including against Medvedev in the 4th round. He beat Hurkacz in 3 sets in the q final as underdog. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month ATP stats are better for Jarry on serve. Return stats favour Paul. 3 month stats favour Jarry on serve and Paul on return. Very good chance of 3 sets. I give a slight edge to Jarry.
Lay Paul around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

16th May

ATP Rome

Hurkacz 1.70 v Paul

Due to start at 12:00

H2H 1-1. Most recent Mar 2023, hard, Paul in 3. Hurkacz won indoors in Nov 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Hurkacz.
Hurkacz lost in the 2nd round last season. Very easy win over Nadal in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Etcheverry. 3 sets win over Baez in the 4th round. 4th round in Madrid. 3rd round in Monte Carlo. Title in Estoril. 3rd round at the French Open.
Paul lost in the 2nd round last year. He beat Karatsev in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Koepfer in the 3rd round. Easy win over Medvedev in the 4th round. 3rd round in Madrid and 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month stats are better for Hurkacz on serve and favour Paul on return. Same pattern in the last 3 months. This could be tight. Medvedev was really poor in the last round against Paul.
Back Hurkacz around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Rome

Collins v Sabalenka 1.67

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Sabalenka 5-0. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, 3 sets. She won on hard in Sep 2022, hard, 3 sets. Collins won the 1st set in their last 2 matches.
Collins came through the 1st round when Blinkova retired after set 1. Straight sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. Easy win over Begu in the 4th round. 2 sets win over Azarenka in the q final. She reached the 4th round in Madrid. Title in Charleston.
Sabalenka lost in the 2nd round last season. she needed 3 sets against Volynets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. She beat Svitolina in a 3rd set tie break in the 4th round. She lost the first set. 2 sets win over Ostapenko in the q final. Final in Madrid. Semis of the French Open.
12 month stats are quite even. Slight edge to Collins overall. 3 month stats are better for Collins. Collins has the higher ROI in the last 12 months and also in 2024.
Lay Sabalenka around 1.40 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner. Some value on Collins.

15th May

WTA Rome

Ostapenko v Sabalenka 1.33

Due to start at 12:00

Sabalenka 2--0. Most recent Feb 2023, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2019, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Sabalenka.
Ostapenko reached the semis last season. She beat Potapova in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the 3rd round. She beat Sramkova in a 3rd set tie break. 4th round in Madrid. 2nd round of the French Open.
Sabalenka lost in the 2nd round last season. she needed 3 sets against Volynets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. She beat Svitolina in a 3rd set tie break in the 4th round. She lost the first set. Final in Madrid. Semis of the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Sabalenka.
Back Sabalenka around 1.85 to 2.00.

WTA Rome

Azarenka v Collins 1.51

Due to start at 6 pm

 Collins 2-1. Most recent June 2020, clay, Collins in 2. Azarenka won on hard in 2019, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Collins.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last year. 3 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Sherif in the 3rd round. She beat Sakkari in 2 sets in the 4th round. 3rd round in Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
Collins came through the 1st round when Blinkova retired after set 1. Straight sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. Easy win over Begu in the 4th round. She reached the 4th round in Madrid. Title in Charleston.
12 and 3 month stats favour Collins on serve and favour Azarenka on return. Stats for the tournament favour Collins on serve.
Back Collins around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

14th May

ATP Rome

Paul v Medvedev 1.53

Due to start at 3 pm

Medvedev 3-0. Most recent March 2024, hard, 3 sets. He won on clay in 2021, 4 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Medvedev.
Paul lost in the 2nd round last year. He beat Karatsev in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Koepfer in the 3rd round. 3rd round in Madrid and 2nd round at the French Open.
Medvedev won the title last season. 2 sets win over Draper in the 2nd round. Tough 3 sets win over Medjedovic in the 3rd round. Q finals in Madrid.
12 month stats are close on serve but favour Medvedev on return. 3 month stats favour Paul. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Medvedev around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Rome

Gauff 1.70 v Zheng

Due to start at 7:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are quite even.
Gauff reached the 3rd round last season. Straight sets win over Frech in the 2nd round but she didn't serve well. Broken 4 times. In the 3rd round, Gauff didn't win a game in the 2nd set. She was a set and a break behind to Badosa in the 4th round and was also a break down in the 3rd set before she won 6 games in a row. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals at the French Open.
Zheng reached the q finals last season. Very easy win over Rogers in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Noskova in the 3rd round. She beat Osaka in 2 sets in the 4th round. She retired from Madrid. Title in Palermo in July. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Zheng on serve. Stats for the tournament also favour her.
Lay Gauff around 1.45 and remove liability around 2.00. Chance of 3 sets.

13th May

WTA Rome

Gauff 1.53 v Badosa

Due to start at 12:00

Badosa 3-1. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Badosa in 2. She won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Gauff won on hard in Feb 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Gauff.
Gauff reached the 3rd round last season. Straight sets win over Frech in the 2nd round but she didn't serve well. Broken 4 times. In the 3rd round, Gauff didn't win a game in the 2nd set. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals at the French Open.
Badosa reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Andreeva in the 1st round. She beat Navarro in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Shnaider in the 3rd round.
3 month stats are quite even on serve but strongly favour Gauff on return. I think we will see a lot of swings in this match. Neither player is at their best.
Lay Gauff if she gets an early break and remove liability if Badosa then gets a bp. Back Gauff around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Rome

Sakkari 1.65 v Azarenka

Due to start at 5 pm

Azarenka 2-0. Most recent Aug 2021, hard, 3rd set tie break. . She won indoors in Oct 2020, 2 sets. 12 month clay win %'s are even.
Sakkari reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Gracheva in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kalinina in the 3rd round. 4th round in Madrid. Semis in Charleston.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last year. 3 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Sherif in the 3rd round. 3rd round in Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
12 month stats are better for Sakkari on serve. Return stats are better for Azarenka. Predicted holds are quite even. 3 month stats favour Sakkari on serve. The sets should be close.
Back Sakkari around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets but I favour Sakkari.

12th May

WTA Rome

Azarenka 1.57 v Sherif

Due to start at 2:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Sherif.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last year. 3 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. 3rd round in Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
Sherif lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Martic in 2 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win as underdog over Paolini in the 2nd round. CH final last week. 3rd round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid 2023.
12 and 3 month stats favour Azarenka overall. Sherif's match with Paolini was a bit of a mess. 13 breaks of serve and both struggled on 1st serve. Azarenka also has problems on serve in the last round. 12 d faults and a low 1st serve %.
Back Azarenka around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA Rome

Svitolina 1.74 v Kalinskaya

Due to start at 6 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Svitolina.
Svitolina lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win over Errani in the 2nd round. Q finals of the French Open. Title in Strasbourg.
Kalinskaya reached the 3rd round last season. She easily beat a very poor Tauson in the 2nd round.
12 month stats favour Svitolina overall. 3 month stats are close but favour Kalinskaya. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Svitolina around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

11th May

WTA Rome

Haddad Maia v Keys 1.85

Due to start at 1 pm

Maia 1-0 (Oct 2023, indoor, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Maia.
Maia reached the q finals last year. She needed 3 sets against Xinyu Wang in the 2nd round. Q finals in Madrid. Semis at the French Open.
Keys reached the 4th round last season. 3 sets win over Osorio in the 2nd round. Semis in Madrid. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 month clay stats favour Maia overall. Their win %'s in the last 3 months are the same but stats favour Maia.
Lay Keys around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10. Good chance of 3 sets.

WTA Rome

Cirstea v Vondrousova 1.41

Due to start at 3 pm

Cirstea 3-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Cirstea in 3. She won their last 3 matches. They never met on clay. Clay win %'s are better for Vondrousova.
Cirstea reached the 2nd round last year. She beat a disappointing Fruhvirtova in the 2nd round and didn't serve well herself. 3rd round in Madrid.
Vondrousova reached the 4th round last season. 3 sets win over Bogdan in the 2nd round. Semis in Stuttgart. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month stats favour Vondrousova and 3 month stats favour her on serve.
Back Vondrousova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

10th May

WTA Rome

Azarenka 1.48 v Linette

Due to start at 1 pm

Azarenka 3-2. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Linette in 3. Azarenka won on hard in Aug 2023, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Linette.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last year. 3rd round in Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
Linette reached the 3rd round last season. 2 sets win over Zhu in the 1st round. Final in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston.
12 month stats are better for Linette on serve. 3 month stats also favour Linette on serve. Return stats are better for Azarenka. Recent performances on clay are better for Linette.
Lay Azarenka around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Rome

Sherif v Paolini 1.45

Due to start at 7 pm

Sherif 1-0 (June 2023, clay, Sherif in 3). Clay win %'s are even.
Sherif lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Martic in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH final last week. 3rd round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid 2023.
Paolini reached the 2nd round last season, losing to eventual champion, Rybakina. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Final in Palermo. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats favour Paolini. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Paolini around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

9th May

WTA Rome

Avanesyan v Cristian 1.77

Due to start at 1.45 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Cristian.
Avanesyan beat Bucsa in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached the q finals in Lausanne. Q finals in Budapest and 4th round at the French Open.
Cristian lost in the qual rounds. She reached the 3rd round in Madrid as qualifier. Q final in Charleston. CH semi and 2 q finals in Sep.
12 month WTA stats are better for Cristian on serve.
Back Cristian around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA Rome

Navarro 1.96 v Badosa

Due to start at 5 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are a little better for Navarro.
Navarro reached a CH q final last week. 3rd round in Madrid. Q final in Palermo. CH final in July. 2nd round of the French Open. Q final in Strasbourg.
Badosa reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Andreeva in the 1st round.
12 month and 3 month stats are better for Navarro.
Back Navarro around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

8th May

WTA Rome

Carle v Siegemund 1.65

Due to start at 1 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are fairly even.
Carle has come through the qual rounds. 3rd round in Madrid as qualifier. CH title in April. CH final and semi in Dec.
Siegemund has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Bogota.
12 month WTA stats are close on serve but slightly favour Siegemund. Return stats and predicted holds favour Carle. 3 month stats favour Carle.
Lay Siegemund around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.95. Chance of 3 sets.

WTA Rome

Saville v Tauson 1.60

Due to start at 4 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Tauson.
Saville reached the 2nd round in Madrid as lucky loser. Semis in Hamburg in July.
Tauson has come through the qual rounds. CH final in April. 3rd round at the French Open as qualifier.
12 month WTA stats are better for Tauson. 3 month stats favour her.
Back Tauson around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

7th May

WTA Rome

Trevisan v Putintseva 1.51

Due to start at 1 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Trevisan in 3rd set tie break. Putintseva won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Putintseva.
Trevisan lost in the 2nd round last year. Q finals in Hamburg in July. Q final in Rabat in May.
Putintseva reached the 2nd round last year. Q finals in Madrid. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rabat.
12 month WTA stats are better for Putintseva. 3 month stats also favour her.
Back Putintseva around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60. Trevisan is a very capable clay player but seems to have lost her way this season.

WTA Rome

Bogdan v Fernandez 1.59

Due to start at 2:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Bogdan.
Bogdan lost to Garcia in the 2nd round last year. CH title in Sep. Q finals in Lausanne. CH title in July.
Fernandez lost in the 1st round last season. 3rd round in Madrid. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Fernandez on serve. Return stats favour Bogdan. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Fernandez.
Back Fernandez around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

6th May

The main draw matches in Rome start tomorrow. I have selected 2 matches from the qualifying rounds.

WTA Rome, qualifying

Cristian 1.48 v Baptiste

Due to start at 12:00

Baptiste 1-0 (June 2021, grass, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Cristian.
Cristian reached the 3rd round in Madrid as qualifier. Q final in Charleston. CH semi and 2 q finals in Sep.
Baptiste reached the 2nd round in Bogota. Her best results were in ITF's.
Back Cristian around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.40.

I favour Cristian to win in 2 sets.

Update: There were no bp's until Cristian served at 4-5. She faced 2 bp's and was broken. I laid Baptiste before the start of set 2. 

Baptiste took a 3-0 lead in set 2. I added to my lay of her at 2-0. Cristian broke back. I removed some of my liability. I wanted to try to give Cristian the chance to get another break.

When the score reached 4-4, I hedged for a small profit. 

Baptiste was broken when serving at 5-5. When she served for the set, Cristian faced 3 bp's but held to take the set. I stayed away from set 3. Cristian took a 5-2 lead. She was broken when serving for the match but immediately broke again to win.

Cristian won 4-6, 7-5,  6-3.

WTA Rome, qualifying

Danilovic 1.41 v Rakhimova

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Rakhimova 4-1. Most recent Oct 2022, indoor, Rakhimova in 2. Danilovic won on clay in July 2021, 3 sets. Rakhimova won on clay in May 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Danilovic.
Danilovic lost in the qual rounds last year. 2nd round in Madrid as qualifier. CH semi in Apr. CH q final in March. CH title in July. 3rd round at the French Open as qualifier.
Rakhimova lost in the 1st round as lucky loser last season. Semis in Bogota in April. 3rd round at the French Open.
WTA stats in the last year are better for Danilovic. 3 month stats favour her.
Back Danilovic around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

I favour Danilovic to win in 3 sets

Update: Danilovic broke first to lead 3-2. I laid her but kept stake small as she had not faced a bp. She held to lead 4-2. When Rakhimova faced a bp in the next game, I hedged for a small loss. She was not performing well. 

Danilovic broke to lead 5-2 and easily served out the set. 

Rakhimova manged to perform worse in set 2.

Danilovic won 6-2, 6-0.

5th May

WTA Challenger Saint Malo

Paquet v Boisson 1.43

Due to start at 2 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Boisson in 3. Paquet won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Boisson.
Paquet lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Zarazua in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round as slight favourite. She beat Stearns in 3 sets as huge underdog in the q final. She beat poorly serving Naef in 2 sets in the semis. She reached 2 ITF semis in April.
Boisson beat Gracheva in 2 sets in the 1st round. She lost just 1 game to Sierra in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Volynets as slight underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over Cornet in the semi final. ITF title and semi in April. 2 ITF titles in March.
12 month CH stats and also stats on all tours favour Boisson. Stats for the tournament favour her on serve.
Back Boisson around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.

ATP Madrid

Aliassime v Rublev 1.42

Due to start at 5:30 pm

Rublev 4-1. Most recent Feb 2024, indoor, Rublev in 3. Aliassime won indoors in Feb 2022, 2 sets. Rublev won their only match on clay in 2018, 3 sets.
Aliassime lost in the 2nd round last season. He needed 3 sets against Nishioka in the 1st round. Easy win over Mannarino in the 2nd round. He beat Mensik who retired in the 3rd round. He beat Ruud in straight sets as underdog. Sinner withdrew before their q final. Lehecka retired in the first set in the semis. Q finals in Munich.
Rublev reached the 4th round last year. Easy win over Bagnis in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Fokina in the 3rd round. Easy win over Griekspoor in the 4th round. He beat Alcaraz in 3 sets as huge underdog in the q final. 2 sets win over Fritz in the semis. Title in Bastad in July. 3rd round of the French Open. 4th round in Rome. Final in Banja Luka in Apr 2023.
12 month stats are better for Rublev. 3 month stats are a little better for Aliassime.
Aliassime has had 2 opponents retire and another withdraw. Maybe its his lucky tournament!
Back Rublev around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

4th May

WTA Saint Malo Challenger

Naef 1.34 v Paquet

Due to start at 11:30 am

1st meeting. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Paquet.
Naef had an easy win over Zakharova in the 1st round. Another easy win over Saville as underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Burel in the q final. CH 2nd round as qualifier in March.
Paquet lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Zarazua in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round as slight favourite. She beat Stearns in 3 sets as huge underdog in the q final. She reached 2 ITF semis in April.
12 month stats on all tours favour Naef overall.
Back Naef around 1.85 to 1.95.

WTA Madrid

Swiatek 1.34 v Sabalenka

Due to start at 5:30 pm

Swiatek 6-3. Most recent Nov 2023, hard, Swiatek in 2. Sabalenka won on clay in May 203, 3 sets. Swiatek won on clay in Apr 2023, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are a little better for Swiatek.
Swiatek reached the final last season. Easy win over Wang in the 2nd round. Another easy win over Cirstea in the 3rd round. She lost 1 game to Sorribes Tormo in the 4th round. She lost the 1st set to Haddad Maia in the q final but lost just 2 games in the next 2 sets. Easy win over Keys in the semis. Semis in Stuttgart. Title at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Sabalenka won the title last season. She needed 3 sets against Linette in the 2nd round. She also needed 3 sets against Montgomery. Another 3 set match with Collins in the 4th round. In the q final, she did not face a bp against Andreeva. 3rd set tie break win over Rybakina in the semi final. Semis at the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Swiatek. Stats for the tournament are better for Swiatek.
Lay Swiatek around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Swiatek around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

3rd May

ATP Madrid

Fritz v Rublev 1.74

Due to start at 3 pm

Fritz 5-4. Most recent Sep 2023, indoor, Fritz in 2. Rublev won on clay in April 2023, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Rublev.
Fritz reached the 4th round last year. He beat Darderi in 2 close sets in the 2nd round. Surprisingly easy win over Baez in the 3rd round. He didn't face a bp against Hurkacz in the 4th round. He beat Cerundolo in the q final. Final in Munich last week. 3rd round at the French Open. Semis in Geneva in May.
Rublev reached the 4th round last year. Easy win over Bagnis in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Fokina in the 3rd round. Easy win over Griekspoor in the 4th round. He beat Alcaraz in 3 sets as huge underdog in the q final. Title in Bastad in July. 3rd round of the French Open. 4th round in Rome. Final in Banja Luka in Apr 2023.
12 and 3 month stats are pretty even. Stats for the tournament are better for Fritz on serve and favour Rublev on return. This will be very close. Return stats could be the difference today.
Back Rublev around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

ATP Madrid

Aliassime v Lehecka 1.75

Due to start at 7 pm

Lehecka 1-0 (Jan 2023, hard, 4 sets). 12 month win %'s are quite even.
Aliassime lost in the 2nd round last season. He needed 3 sets against Nishioka in the 1st round. Easy win over Mannarino in the 2nd round. He beat Mensik who retired in the 3rd round. He beat Ruus in straight sets as underdog. Sinner withdrew before their q final. Q finals in Munich.
Lehecka lost in the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Medjedovic in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Monteiro in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Nadal in the 4th round. He beat Medvedev in the q final. Medvedev retired after losing set 1. Q finals in Umag in July. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 month stats are pretty even on serve and favour Aliassime on return. 3 month stats favour Lehecka on serve.
Back Lehecka around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

2nd May

ATP Madrid

Medvedev 1.60 v Lehecka

Due to start at 7 pm

Medvedev 1-0 (July 2023, grass, Lehecka retired). Clay win %'s are better for Medvedev.
Medvedev reached the 4th round last year. He needed 3 sets against Arnaldi in the 2nd round. He was close to losing to Korda in the 3rd round. He lost the first set. 2 sets win over Bublik in the 4th round. Title in Rome.
Lehecka lost in the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Medjedovic in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Monteiro in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Nadal in the 4th round. Q finals in Umag in July. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 month stats favour Medvedev. Stats for the tournament are better for Lehecka.
Lay Medvedev if he gets an early break of serve and remove liability if Lehecka then gets a bp. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Madrid

Rybakina 1.99 v Sabalenka

Due to start at 8:30 pm

Sabalenka 5-3. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Rybakina in 2. Sabalenka won on hard in Nov 2023, 3 sets. 7 of their matches were on hard. Clay win %'s are pretty even. Rybakina is unbeaten in the last 12 months.
Rybakina lost in the 2nd round last year. Straight sets wins over Bronzetti and Sherif. She beat Bejlek in 2 sets in the 4th round. She saved 2 match points against Putintseva in the q final. Title in Stuttgart last week. 3rd round at the French Open. Title in Rome.
Sabalenka won the title last season. She needed 3 sets against Linette in the 2nd round. She also needed 3 sets against Montgomery. Another 3 set match with Collins in the 4th round. In the q final, she did not face a bp against Andreeva. Semis at the French Open.
Rybakina was not great in the last round. Her second serve was poor. She faced 10 bp's but was only broken 3 times in 3 sets. Perhaps she is ready for a rest.
12 month stats are better for Rybakina. 3 month stats also favour her. She got out of jail in the previous round. I give Sabalenka the edge today.
Lay Rybakina around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

1st May

ATP Madrid

Rublev v Alcaraz 1.25

Due to start at 3 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Alcaraz in 2. Rublev won on hard in Dec 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Alcaraz.
Rublev reached the 4th round last year. Easy win over Bagnis in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Fokina in the 3rd round. Easy win over Griekspoor in the 4th round. Title in Bastad in July. 3rd round of the French Open. 4th round in Rome. Final in Banja Luka in Apr 2023.
Alcaraz won the title last season. Easy win over Shevchenko in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Wild in the 3rd round. He needed a 3rd set tie break against Struff. Semis in Buenos Aires. Semis at the French Open.
12 month stats are fairly even on serve and strongly favour Alcaraz on return. 3 month stats favour Rublev on serve and strongly favour Alcaraz on return.
Alcaraz has been broken 5 times. Rublev was broken twice.
Lay Alcaraz and remove liability at 1.55. Back Alcaraz around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.

WTA Madrid

Andreeva v Sabalenka 1.57

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Sabalenka 1-0 (May 2023, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Sabalenka.
Andreeva reached the 4th round last year. She needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Noskova in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Vondrousova in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Paolini in the 4th round. Q finals in Rouen last week. 3rd round of the French Open.
Sabalenka won the title last season. She needed 3 sets against Linette in the 2nd round. She also needed 3 sets against Montgomery. Another 3 set match with Collins in the 4th round. Semis at the French Open.
12 month clay stats are better for Sabalenka on serve. Return stats are much stronger for Andreeva. Stats for the tournament show the same pattern. Sabalenka has been more solid on serve. Andreeva has been broken 17 times in 4 matches. Sabalenka was broken 6 times in 3 matches with 4 of those coming against Collins in the last round.
Back Sabalenka around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

30th April

ATP Madrid

Hurkacz v Fritz 1.85

Due to start at 11:30 am

Fritz 3-2. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Fritz retired. Fritz won on hard in Jan 2023, 2 tie breaks. All their sets were tight. Clay win %'s are better for Hurkacz.
Hurkacz reached the 3rd round last year. 2 sets win over Draper in the 2nd round. He beat Altmaier in 2 close sets in the 3rd round. 3rd round in Monte Carlo. Title in Estoril. 3rd round at the French Open.
Fritz reached the 4th round last year. He beat Darderi in 2 close sets in the 2nd round. Surprisingly easy win over Baez in the 3rd round. Final in Munich last week. 3rd round at the French Open. Semis in Geneva in May.
12 month stats are better for Hurkacz on serve. Return stats were much better for Fritz. 3 month stats are quite even.
Hurkacz has raised his clay level in 2024. He has a good chance today.
Lay Fritz around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: There were no bp's in the first set. The set went to a tie break that Fritz won comfortably. I laid Fritz. 

Humbert was broken in the first game of the 2ndd set! As he had not had a bp in the match to that point, I exited for the red. Humbert would not have a single bp in the match.

Fritz won 7-6, 6-4.

WTA Madrid

Keys v Jabeur 1.77

Due to start at 7 pm

Jabeur 2-0. Most recent Aug 2022, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2020, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are a little better for Jabeur.
Keys beat Begu in 2 tie breaks in the 2nd round. She beat Samsonova in 2 sets in the 3rd round. In the 4th round she beat Gauff as huge underdog in 3 sets. She reached the 2nd round of the French Open and 4th round in Rome.
Jabeur beat Schmiedlova in 3 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Fernandez in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Ostapenko in the 4th round. She reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Stuttgart. Title in Charleston in 2023.
12 month clay stats are better for Jabeur. 3 month stats also favour her. Stats for the tournament are close but favour Jabeur overall.
Back Jabeur around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Sakkari was broken in the 1st game of the match. I laid Jabeur. In the next game, Jabeur went 15-40 behind and I removed some of the liability. Jabeur recovered to hold.

In the next game, Sakkari was broken again and I hedged for around zero. Jabeur took the set 6-0. 

In set 2, Sakkari was broken in the first game. Jabeur was now a set and a break ahead and I laid her. 3 games later, Sakkari broke back to get to 2-2. I removed most of my liability as Sakkari had only held once in the match. Sakkari took a late break of serve to take the set 7-5. I hedged. I dd not enter in set 3. Sakkari won it 6-1.

Sakkari won 0-6, 7-5, 6-1.

29th April

WTA Madrid

Andreeva 1.93 v Paolini

Due to start at 1:30 pm

1st meeting. 12 month clay win %'s are even.
Andreeva reached the 4th round last year. She needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Noskova in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Vondrousova in the 3rd round. Q finals in Rouen last week. 3rd round of the French Open.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. She lost 1 game in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. Q finals in Stuttgart this month. Final in Palermo. CH final in June and CH title in May. 2nd round in Rome.
12 month stats are better for Paolini on serve. Andreeva leads on return. In the last 3 months, Paolini leads on serve and return stats are even.
Lay Andreeva around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets.

WTA Madrid

Putintseva v Kasatkina 1.71

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Kasatkina 1-0 (July 2018, grass, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Kasatkina.
Putintseva reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Yuan in the 1st round. She came through the 2nd round when Zheng retired. 2 sets win over Dolehide in the 3rd round. CH semi in July. 3rd round of the French Open. Q finals in Rabat.
Kasatkina reached the 4th round last season. She needed 3 sets against Bucsa in the 2nd round. It was her first match on red clay since July. 2 sets win over Pavlyuchenkova in the 3rd round. Final in Charleston. Q finals in Palermo and 4th round at the French Open. 4th round in Rome.
12 month stats are better for Putintseva on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Kasatkina. Recent performances are better for Kasatkina. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Kasatkina around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

28th April

ATP Madrid

Rublev 1.55 v Davidovich Fokina

Due to start at 11:30 am

Rublev 3-0. Most recent May 2023, clay, 2 sets. He won on clay in Oct 2020, 4 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Rublev.
Rublev reached the 4th round last year. Easy win over Bagnis in the 2nd round. Title in Bastad in July. 3rd round of the French Open. 4th round in Rome. Final in Banja Luka in Apr 2023.
Fokina reached the 4th round last season. He beat Shang in 2 close sets in the 2nd round. 3rd round at the French Open. 3rd round in Rome.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Rublev.
Back Rublev around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Madrid

Garcia v Paolini 1.74

Due to start at 3 pm

Garcia 5-2. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Garcia in 3. Paolini won indoors in Nov 2023, 3 sets. Garcia won both their clay matches (both in 2022). Clay win %'s are better for Paolini.
Garcia reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Wang in the 2nd round. Semis in Rouen last week. 2nd round of the French Open. 3rd round in Rome.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. She lost 1 game in the 2nd round. Q finals in Stuttgart this month. Final in Palermo. CH final in June and CH title in May. 2nd round in Rome.
12 month stats favour Garcia on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Paolini. Its the same pattern in the last 3 months. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Paolini.
Back Paolini around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

27th April

WTA Madrid

Stephens v Sakkari 1.76

Due to start at 12:00

Sakkari 1-0 (Aug 2022, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Stephens lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Trevisan in 3 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Mertens in the 2nd round. She won the title last week in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat.
Sakkari reached the semis last season. Easy win over Vekic in the 2nd round. Semis in Charleston. 3rd round in Rome.
12 month stats are better for Sakkari on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Stephens. 3 month stats favour Sakkari on serve and predicted holds favour her.
Back Sakkari around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 165. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Sakkari broke first to lead 3-1. I laid her. 2 games later, Sakkari broke again and I hedged for the loss. 

Stephens served first in set 2 so I waited for her to have her service game before laying Sakkari. She was broken. I laid Sakkari who was now a set and a break ahead. 

In the next game, Stephens broke back. I was not hopeful that Stephens would hold serve in the next game as she had been broken in her last 3 service games. I hedged and accepted the reduced red. Stephens would be broke twice more in the set.

Sakkari won 6-1, 6-3.

WTA Madrid

Fernandez v Jabeur 1.85

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Jabeur 2-0. Most recent June 2021, grass, 3rd set tie break. She won on hard in Aug 2020, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Jabeur.
Fernandez lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Potapova in the 1st round. 2nd round at the French Open.
Jabeur beat Schmiedlova in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Stuttgart. Title in Charleston in 2023.
12 month clay stats favour Jabeur overall. 3 month stats also favour her.
Back Jabeur around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Fernandez broke serve to lead 2-0. I backed Jabeur. 3 games later, Jabeur broke back to 15. I removed most of my liability. 

Jabeur's serve came under pressure in 2 of her next 3 service games but she was not broken. Fernandez was broken when serving at 5-5. I removed my remaining liability. Jabeur successfully served for the set.

Fernandez served first in set 2. She had decent serve stats in the 1st set despite being broken twice. I laid Jabeur after the first set. 

There were no bp's in the first 5 games. Fernandez then broke to 30 and I hedged.  Fernandez broke again to take the set. 

In set 3, Fernandez took a 2-0 lead and I backed Jabeur. Jabeur immediately broke back and I hedged. I did not enter again. Fernandez faced bp's in every service game in the 3rd set.

Fernandez broke to lead 4-2 but Jabeur won the next 4 games.

Jabeur won 7-5, 2-6, 6-4.

26th April

WTA Madrid

Alexandrova 1.50 v Krueger

Due to start at 11:30 am

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Krueger.
Alexandrova reached the 4th round last year. 3rd round at the French Open.
Krueger beat Hibino in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 2nd round in Charleston. Most of her clay matches have been in ITF's.
12 month stats are better for Alexandrova on serve. Recent performances are better for Alexandrova.
Back Alexandrova around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability 1.50.

Update: Alexandrova was broken in the first game. I backed her. There were no bp's in the next 3 games. Alexandrova served at 1-3 and faced 2 bp's but held. Had she been broken, I would have added a little to my back of her. In the next game, Kruger faced a bp and I remove some of the liability. Krueger held. 

In Alexandrova's next service game, she again faced a bp and I hedged for a small red.  

Alexandrova was broken again to lose the set. 

My reason for favouring Alexandrova was her serving ability but she was not serving well. She had only managed to earn 1 bp on the Krueger serve. I stayed away from set 2. 

In set 2, Alexandrova did not have a single bp and was broken once.

Krueger won 6-3, 6-3.

WTA Madrid

Kostyuk 1.22 v Sherif

Due to start at 1 pm

Kostyuk 2-1. Most recent Jan 2023, hard, Kostyuk in 2. She won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Sherif won on clay in 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Sherif.
Kostyuk lost in the 2nd round last year. She reached the final in Stuttgart last week. 3rd round in Rome.
Sherif reached the q finals last season. She beat Davis in 3 sets in the 1st round. Semis in Palermo. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 months stats are better for Sherif overall. Recent performances are better for Kostyuk.
Lay Kostyuk around 1.15 and remove liability at 1.40. Back Kostyuk around 1.85 to 2.00. Chance of 3 sets.

Update: Even though I was wanting 1.15 before laying Kostyuk, I place a small lay at the start as she was serving first. She saved 3 bp's in that first game but was broken. I removed a little of the liability. Sherif faced a bp in the next game but held. Kostyuk was broken in the next game and Sherif led 3-0. I hedged. 

I laid Sherif. 2 games later, Sherif was broken. I hedged. Kostyuk was then broken for a third time and Sherif easily served for the set, holding to 15. 

So, Kostyuk was broken 3 times in the set. She won less than half her service points. 

At the start of set 2, Kostyuk served first and was broken to 30. She was clearly not performing as I had expected and I stayed out. Sherif held serve and then broke Kostyuk again. As Kostyuk had her only break of the 1st set when Sherif was a double break ahead (and because the price was low), I laid Sherif. 

Sherif was broken in the next game! I hedged as I was not confident that Kostyuk would be able to hold. She faced a bp but did hold and actually broke Sherif again to get to 4-4. 

Kostyuk was broken when serving at 5-5 and Sherif successfully served for the match. 

Sherif won 6-2, 7-5.

25th April

WTA Madrid

Podoroska v Navarro 1.41

Due to start at 11:30 am

Navarro 1-0 (June 2023, grass, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Navarro.
Podoroska lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Siniakova in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH title in March. 2 CH semis in Nov. Semis in Budapest. CH semi in June. 2nd round of the French Open.
Navarro won an ITF title in Nov. Q finals in Palermo. CH final in July. 2nd round of the French Open. Q finals in Strasbourg in May.
12 month WTA stats are better for Navarro. Podoroska will be competitive. Navarro may start slowly as hasn't played on red clay for a while.
Lay Navarro around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Navarro around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Madrid

Mertens v Stephens 1.70

Due to start at 2:30 pm

H2H 2-2. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Mertens in 3. Stephens won on hard in Sep 2023, 2 sets. All their matches were on hard. Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Mertens reached the 4th round last year. Q finals in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open.
Stephens lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Trevisan in 3 sets in the 1st round. She won the title last week in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat.
12 month WTA stats are better for Stephens overall. 3 month stats also favour her. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Stephens around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

24th April

WTA Madrid

Linette v Cocciaretto 1.57

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Cocciaretto 1-0 (Oct 2022, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are a little better for Cocciaretto in the last year.
Linette reached the 3rd round last year. Reached the final in Rouen last week. 3rd round in Charleston. 3rd round in Rome.
Cocciaretto reached the 2nd round last season. CH semi in March. Title in Lausanne in July. 3rd round at the French Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Linette on serve. 3 month stats favour her. She could be tired after last week.
Lay Cocciaretto around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.

There's a chance Linette tired if it's a long match. Slight edge to Cocciaretto.

WTA Madrid

Frech v Cristian 1.66

Due to start at 3:30 pm

Frech 1-0 (Aug 2017, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s favour Cristian.
Frech reached the 2nd round as qualifier last year. 2nd round at the French Open. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier.
Cristian reached the 2nd round last season. She has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Charleston. CH semi and 2 q finals in Sep.
12 month clay stats on all tours are fairly even on serve and favour Cristian on return. 3 month stats are better for Cristian. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Cristian.
Back Cristian around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.

23rd April

WTA Madrid

Begu 1.45 v L. Fruhvirtova

Due to start at 1 pm

Begu 1-0 (Feb 2020, hard, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are much better for Begu.
Begu reached the q finals last season. CH final in March. CH final in July. 3rd round at the French Open.
Fruhvirtova reached the 2nd round last year. CH 2nd round in March.
Back Begu around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

WTA Madrid

Kenin 1.84 v Schmiedlova

Due to start at 2:30 pm

Kenin 2-0. Most recent Jan 2019, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in Aug 2018, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Schmiedlova.
Kenin lost in the 1st round last season. 3rd round in Rome.
Schmiedlova lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. Final in Parma in Sep. Q finals in Budapest in July. 4th round at the French Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Schmiedlova.
Lay Kenin around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10. I favour Schmiedlova to win.

22nd April

WTA Madrid

Osorio 1.43 v Danilovic

Due to start at 10:30 am

Osorio 1-0 (May 2021, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s favour Osorio.
Osorio reached the 3rd round last year. She won the title in Bogota this month. Q finals in Palermo. 2nd round of the French Open as lucky loser. 4th round in Rome.
Danilovic lost in the qual rounds last season. CH semi this month. CH q final in March. CH title in July. 3rd round of the French Open as qualifier.
12 month WTA stats are better for Danilovic on serve. Return stats favour Osorio. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Osorio around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Madrid

Cristian 1.32 v Kessler

Due to start at 12:00

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Cristian.
Cristian reached the 2nd round last year. Q finals in Charleston. Q finals in Parma in Sep. CH semi and q final in Sep.
Kessler reached an ITF q final in May. Most of her clay matches were in ITF or below.
12 month clay stats are stronger for Cristian.
Back Cristian around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.

21st April

WTA Stuttgart

Rybakina 1.41 v Kostyuk

Due to start at 12:00

Kostyuk 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Rybakina in 2. Kostyuk won on hard in 2023 (3 sets) and in 2017 (2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the 2nd round last season. She had a very tight 3 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. Another tight 3 setter with Paolini in the q final. Yet another 3 setter against Swiatek. 3rd round at the French Open. Title in Rome.
Kostyuk beat Siegemund in 3 sets. She faced 20 bp's and was broken 7 times. She hit FIFTEEN d faults. She played better in the 2nd round against Zheng, who was terrible. Kostyuk still hit 8 d faults. Another poor match on serve in the q final with Gauff. Both players struggled and Kostyuk hit another 10 d faults. She won in a 3rd set tie break. She actually served pretty well in the semi final and beat Vondrousova in 2 sets. She reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2021 but has played very few clay matches since and had little success.
12 month stats are better for Rybakina on serve and favour Kostyuk on return. predicted holds favour Rybakina. Stats for the tournament are better for Rybakina on serve but Kostyuk has been much better on return.
Most players have struggled with serve this week (more than usual).
Back Rybakina around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.

ATP Barcelona

Tsitsipas v Ruud 1.97

Due to start at 3 pm

Tsitsipas 4-2. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Tsitsipas in 2. Ruud won on hard in Feb 2024, 2 sets. He won on clay in May 2021, 2 sets. Only their first meeting which was in 2016 went to 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Tsitsipas.
Tsitsipas reached the final last season. He beat Ofner in 2 sets in the 2nd round. He beat Baena in 2 close sets in the 3rd round. He needed a 3rd set tie break against Acosta in the q final. Also needed 3 sets against Lajovic in the semi final. He won the title in Monte Carlo last week. Q finals at the French Open. Semis in Rome and q finals in Madrid.
Ruud reached the 3rd round last season. He beat Muller in 2 sets in the 2nd round. Easy win over Thompson in the 3rd round. He beat Arnaldi in 2 sets in the q final. He beat Etcheverry in 2 close sets in the semis. He reached the final in Monte Carlo. Semis in Estoril. Final in Bastad and final of the French Open. Semis in Rome.
12 month stats favour Tsitsipas on serve and return stats favour Ruud. Predicted holds are close but favour Tsitsipas. Stats for the tournament are close on serve but strongly favour Ruud on return. In their final last week, Ruud made an awful start but was more competitive in the 2nd set. Ruud has not lost a set this week. Tsitsipas needed 3 sets in the last 2 rounds. He has been on court 73 minutes more this week. This final will be more competitive.
Lay Tsitsipas around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

20th April

WTA Stuttgart

Swiatek 1.24 v Rybakina

Due to start at 1 pm

Rybakina 3-2. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Swiatek in 2. Rybakina won on clay in 2023, Swiatek retired. She won on hard twice in 2023, 2 sets each time. Clay win %'s are a little better for Swiatek.
Swiatek won the title last year. Fairly comfortable win over Mertens in the 2nd round. She was broken twice. Close opening set with Raducanu in the q final. She won in 2 sets. Title at the French Open. Q finals in Rome and final in Madrid.
Rybakina reached the 2nd round last season. She had a very tight 3 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. Another tight 3 setter with Paolini in the q final. She was a break behind in set 3. 3rd round at the French Open. Title in Rome.
Rybakina is not at her best but is fighting hard. Swiatek should have too much variety and consistency for her. If Rybakina can make a decent start, she can keep it close.
Lay Swiatek around 1.15 and remove liability around 1.30. Back Swiatek above 1.85.

WTA Stuttgart

Kostyuk v Vondrousova 1.48

Due to start at 2:30 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Kostyuk by walkover. Vondrousova won on clay in April 2023, 2 sets. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Vondrousova.
Kostyuk beat Siegemund in 3 sets. She faced 20 bp's and was broken 7 times. She hit FIFTEEN d faults. She played better in the 2nd round against Zheng, who was terrible. Kostyuk still hit 8 d faults. Another poor match on serve in the q final with Gauff. Both players struggled and Kostyuk hit another 10 d faults. She won in a 3rd set tie break. She reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2021 but has played very few clay matches since and had little success.
Vondrousova beat Vekic in 2 sets in the 1st round. IN the 2nd round she started poorly on serve but improved after being broken back in set 1. Easily took the 2nd set from Potapova. She beat Sabalenka in 3 close sets in the q final. Both struggled on serve but at the end it was Vondrousova who served better. She reached the 2nd round of the French Open. 4th round in Rome.
12 month and tournament stats favour Vondrousova.
Back Vondrousova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

19th April

WTA Stuttgart

Rybakina 1.55 v Paolini

Due to start at 11:30 am

Paolini 2-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Paolini by walkover. She won on hard in Aug 2023 when Rybakina retired! Rybakina won on clay in Rome 2023, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the 2nd round last season. She had a very tight 3 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. 3rd round at the French Open. Title in Rome.
Paolini lost just 1 game to Errani in the 1st round. She beat Jabeur in 2 sets. She reached the final in Palermo in July. CH final in June. 2nd round of the French Open. CH title in May.
12 month stats favour Rybakina on serve. return stats favour Paolini and predicted holds favour Rybakina.
Back Rybakina above 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Stuttgart

Kostyuk v Gauff 1.51

Due to start at 5:30 pm

Gauff 2-0. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in Jan 2022, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Gauff.
Kostyuk beat Siegemund in 3 sets. She faced 20 bp's and was broken 7 times. She hit FIFTEEN d faults. She played better in the 2nd round against Zheng, who was terrible. Kostyuk still hit 8 d faults. She reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2021 but has played very few clay matches since and had little success.
Gauff lost in the 2nd round last season. She hit FIFTEEN d faults in her 2=3 sets win over Vickery in the 2nd round. Q finals of the French Open.
12 month clay stats are better for Gauff on serve. She hadn't played on clay for a while so that could explain the poor performance in the last round. Back Gauff around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

18th April

WTA Rouen

Burel 1.72 v Ruse

Due to start at 1:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are even.
Burel needed 3 sets in the 1st round as 1.30 favourite. reached the final in Lausanne in July. Q finals in Palermo in July. Semis in Strasbourg.
Ruse has come through the qual rounds. Easy win over Hibino in the 1st round. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier.
12 month stats are better for Ruse. Stats in 2024 on all tours are better for Ruse. 1 month stats on all surfaces are stronger for Ruse. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Burel around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Stuttgart

Zheng 1.42 v Kostyuk

Due to start at 7pm

Zheng 1-0 (Aug 2023, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Zheng.
Zheng lost to Swiatek in the 2nd round last year. She beat Cirstea in 2 sets in the 1st round. Title in Palermo in July. 2nd round of the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Kostyuk beat Siegemund in 3 sets. She faced 20 bp's and was broken 7 times. She hit FIFTEEN d faults. She reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2021 but has played very few clay matches since and had little success.
12 month WTA stats are better for Zheng.
Back Zheng around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

17th April

WTA Rouen

Schmiedlova v Parry 1.36

Due to start at 1:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Parry.
Schmiedlova reached a CH final in Sep. Q finals in Budapest. 4th round at the French Open.
Parry reached a CH final in Dec. CH q final in Dec. CH final in Nov. Semis in Lausanne in July. CH title in May and CH semi in June.
12 month stats on all tours favour Parry overall. Recent performances on all surfaces favour Parry.
Back Parry around 1.85 to 2.00. Remove liability at 1.45.

WTA Rouen

Stephens 1.50 v Pliskova 

Due to start at 6:30 pm

Stephens 6-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Stephens in 2. She won on clay in June 2021, 2 sets. Pliskova won on clay in 2018, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Stephens made a slow start in the 1st round against Stearns but won in 3. She reached the 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open and semis in Rabat.
Pliskova needed 3 sets against Polona Kudermetova in the 1st round. She reached the q finals in Stuttgart.
12 month clay stats are better for Pliskova on serve but favour Stephens overall. Stephens has the better ROI in the last year.
Back Stephens around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

16th April

WTA Rouen

Montgomery v Rus 1.55

Due to start at 12:00

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Rus.
Montgomery has come through the qual rounds. CH q final in March. CH semi in Dec.
Rus won the title in Hamburg in July. CH title in July. CH title in June. 2nd round in Madrid.
12 month WTA stats are a little better for Rus overall. Stats in Challengers/ITF's also favour Rus overall.
Back Rus around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA Rouen

Cocciaretto v Garcia 1.94

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Garcia 3-0. Most recent July 2022, clay, 2 sets. All their matches were on clay. Cocciaretto took one of them to 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Cocciaretto.
Cocciaretto reached a CH semi in March. CH title in July. 3rd round of the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid.
Garcia reached the 2nd round of the French Open. 3rd rounds in Rome and Madrid.
12 month WTA stats are better for Garcia on serve. I don't expect Garcia to have an easy match. Cocciaretto has been winning matches as strong favourite but has not done so well against stronger opponents.
Lay Cocciaretto around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20.

15th April

WTA Stuttgart

Vickery v Sasnovich 1.91

Due to start at 2 :30 pm

Vickery 1-0 (Jan 2017, hard, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are better for Vickery.
Vickery has come through the qual rounds. Most of her clay matches were in ITF's.
Sasnovich has come through the qual rounds. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid.
12 month WTA stats are better for Vickery. recent performances also favour her.
Lay Sasnovich around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets but I favour Vickery to win.

WTA Rouen

Stephens 1.50 v Stearns

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Stephens 1-0 (May 2023, clay, 3rd set tie break). Clay win %'s are better for Stephens in the last year.
Stephens reached the 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open and semis in Rabat.
Stearns reached the 3rd round of the French Open. Q finals in Rabat. Final in Bogota in April 2023.
12 month WTA stats are better for Stephens on serve. Return stats are a little better for Stearns.
Back Stephens around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

14th April

ATP Challenger, Madrid

Riedi 1.69 v Napolitano

Due to start at 10 am

Riedi 1-0 (June 2021, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Napolitano.
Riedi did not lose a set in the first 3 rounds. Good win over Fonseca in the q final. He beat Rodionov in a 3rd set tie break in the semi final. CH q final in July.
Stats for the tournament favour Riedi on serve and favour Rodionov on return.
Napolitano has not lost a set. 2 tight sets win over Kopriva in the 2nd round. Beat Huesler in the q final as slight underdog. Kukushkin retired in the 2nd set in the semis. CH semi and q final in Sep. 2 CH q finals in July.
12 month CH stats are better for Napolitano overall. Stats for the tournament favour Riedi on serve. Return stats are much better for Napolitano. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Riedi around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00.

ATP Monte Carlo

Ruud v Tsitsipas 1.72

Due to start at 2 pm

Tsitsipas 3-2. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Ruud in 2. Tsitsipas won on hard in Dec 2022, 2 sets (exhibition). Ruud won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Tsitsipas won on clay in 2016. Clay win %'s are a little better for Tsitsipas.
Ruud reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He did not face a bp against Hurkacz in the 3rd round. He needed 3 sets against Humbert but easily won set 3. He had never taken a set from Djokovic in previous matches but beat him in 3 sets in the semis. He reached the semis in Estoril. Q final in Hamburg. Final in Bastad. Final of the French Open. Semis in Rome.
Tsitsipas reached the q finals last season. He beat Djere who retired in the 1st round. He lost just 1 game to Etcheverry in the 2nd round. He took a tight first set against Zverev and was 5-0 up in the 2nd set. He had 2 match points in the next game but ended up needing a tie break to take the set. Straight sets win over Khachanov in the q final. He beat Sinner in 3 sets. Sinner suffered from cramp (and a bad line call ) towards the end. He reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Rome. Q finals in Madrid and final in Barcelona.
12 month clay stats are pretty even. Slight edge to Tsitsipas. Stats for the tournament are also very even. Both players raised their levels yesterday. Players often suffer a "let down" after beating Djokovic. I think the fact that Ruud had never even taken a set from him before will make Ruud's win even more significant to Ruud.
Back Tsitsipas around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

13th April

Tsitsipas 5-3. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Sinner in 2. He won indoors in Feb 2023, 2 sets. Tsitsipas won on hard in Jan 2023, 5 sets. Tsitsipas won on clay in May 2022, 5 sets. Clay win %'s are fairly even.
Tsitsipas reached the q finals last season. He beat Djere who retired in the 1st round. He lost just 1 game to Etcheverry in the 2nd round. He took a tight first set against Zverev and was 5-0 up in the 2nd set. He had 2 match points in the next game but ended up needing a tie break to take the set. Straight sets win over Khachanov in the q final. He reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Rome. Q finals in Madrid and final in Barcelona.
Sinner reached the semis last season. He lost 3 games to Korda in the 2nd round. Beat Struff in 2 sets in the 3rd round. In the q final, I expected Rune to be tired after playing 2 matches the previous day. Sinner seemed to be the stronger player but Rune was keeping the sets close. After some drama involving the crowd and a couple of violations for Rune, supervisor called ETC , Sinner seemed distracted and Rune played well to take the 2nd set. 4th round in Rome. Q finals in Barcelona.
12 month clay stats are better for Sinner. Stats for the tournament favour Sinner on serve and Tsitsipas on return. Sinner has been broken just once this week. Tsitsipas won 3 of their 4 clay matches but they have not met on this surface since Sinner's improvement in the last year.
Lay Sinner around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Sinner around 1.90 to 2.00.

Update: Tsitsipas broke first to lead 2-1. I laid him. There were no bp's in the next 4 games and I reduce my position. If Tsitsipas held on for the set, I would be laying him again. There were no more bp's in the set which Tsitsipas won 6-4. I laid Tsitsipas.

In set 2, Sinner held easily and then broke Tsitsipas to 15. I took some of my liability out. When Tsitsipas served at 1-4, Sinner had a bp and I hedged evenly. 

Sinner served for the set at 5-3 and saved 5 bp's before holding. 

In set 3, Sinner broke in the first game. He had 2 bp's for a double break lead but he couldn't take them. Strictly speaking he DID take one of them but a bad call from the umpire gave the point to Tsitsipas. Sinner was cramping towards the end of the match. 

Tsitsipas did break back to 4-4 and then broke again to take the match.

ATP Monte Carlo

Djokovic 1.44 v Ruud

Due to start at 2:30 pm

Djokovic 5-0. Most recent June 2023, clay, straight sets. Ruud has not taken a set from Djokovic. They met 3 times on clay. Clay win %'s are better for Djokovic.
Djokovic reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Safiullin in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round, he was behind for most of the 1st set against Musetti. He won in 2 sets. Straight sets win over De Minaur. Title at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Ruud reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He did not face a bp against Hurkacz in the 3rd round. He needed 3 sets against Humbert but easily won set 3. He reached the semis in Estoril. Q final in Hamburg. Final in Bastad. Final of the French Open. Semis in Rome.
Stats for the tournament are better for Ruud on serve. 12 month stats are pretty even on serve and favour Djokovic on return.
Back Djokovic around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

Update: Djokovic was broken in the first game. He did not reach the target price but I placed a small back on him. 4 games later, he was broken again and I added to my position on him. he got one of the breaks back in the very next game and I remove some of my liability. There were no more bp's in the set which Ruud took 6-4. 

I added to be back of Djokovic at the start of set 2. He held, boke and held again for a 3-0 lead. I removed my liability. He would break again to easily take the set 6-1.

In set 3 it was Ruud's turn to hold, break and hold for a 3-0 lead. After his break, I added a little to my position on Djokovic. Djokovic broke serve and then held to get back to 4-4 and I hedged. Surprisingly, Ruud won the next 2 games to take the match. 

Ruud won 6-4, 1-6, 6-4.

12th April

ATP Monte Carlo

Djokovic 1.28 v De Minaur

Due to start at 1:30 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, De Minaur in 2. Djokovic won on hard in Jan 2023, straight sets. Clay win %'s are better for Djokovic.
Djokovic reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Safiullin in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round, he was behind for most of the 1st set against Musetti. He won in 2 sets. Title at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
De Minaur reached the 2nd round last year. Surprisingly easy win over Wawrinka in the 1st round. He struggled against Griekspoor in the 2nd round and won in 3 sets. 2 sets win over Popyrin in the 3rd round. Q finals in Barcelona.
Djokovic has not won this tournament since 2015 and has not gone past the q finals since then. 12 month clay stats are better for Djokovic and stats for the tournament also favour him. De Minaur 1st round performance will have dragged his stats down.
Lay Djokovic around 1.15 to 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back Djokovic above 1.80.

ATP Monte Carlo

Humbert v Ruud 1.35

Due to start at 3 pm

Humbert 3-1. Most recent June 2022, grass, 4 sets. He won indoors in Nov 2020, 3rd set tie break. Ruud won on clay in Sep 2020, 3 sets. 12 month clay win %'s are a little better for Humbert.
Humbert lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. He beat Coria in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Zhang in the 2nd round. He beat Sonego in 3 sets in the 3rd round. 2nd round at the French Open. 2 CH titles in May.
Ruud reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He did not face a bp against Hurkacz in the 3rd round. He reached the semis in Estoril. Q final in Hamburg. Final in Bastad. Final of the French Open. Semis in Rome.
12 month clay stats are quite even on serve. Return stats favour Ruud. Tournament stats are better for Ruud.
Back Ruud around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.

11th April

ATP Monte Carlo

Zverev 1.86 v Tsitsipas

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Tsitsipas 9-5. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Zverev in 2. Tsitsipas won indoors in Nov 2023, 2 sets. He won on clay in May 2022, 3 sets. Zverev won on clay in May 2022, 3 sets. Tsitsipas leads 4-1 on clay. Clay win %'s are close but favour Tsitsipas.
Zverev reached the 3rd round last year. 2 sets win over Ofner in the 2nd round. Title in Hamburg. Q finals in Bastad in July. Semis of the French Open. Semis in Geneva. 4th rounds in Rome and Madrid.
Tsitsipas reached the q finals last season. He beat Djere who retired in the 1st round. He lost just 1 game to Etcheverry in the 2nd round. He reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Rome. Q finals in Madrid and final in Barcelona.
12 month stats are better for Tsitsipas. Return stats are very even. Results in the last month are better for Zverev. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Tsitsipas around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

ATP Monte Carlo

Sonego v Humbert 1.53

Due to start at 3:30 pm

H2H 2-2. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Humbert in 3. Sonego won both their clay matches in 2023. Straight sets at the French Open and 3 sets in Monte Carlo. Clay win %'s are better for Humbert.
Sonego reached the 2nd round last season. He lost in the qual rounds this week. He beat Aliassime as underdog in the 2nd round. Semis in Umag in July. 4th round at the French Open. 3rd round in Rome.
Humbert lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. He beat Coria in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Zhang in the 2nd round. 2nd round at the French Open. 2 CH titles in May.
12 month stats are better for Humbert. Stats for the tournament are better for Humbert. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Humbert around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

10th April

ATP Monte Carlo

Hurkacz 1.48 v Bautista Agut

Due to start at 12:00

Bautista Agut 3-2. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Hurkacz in 2. He won indoors in Feb 2023, 3 tight sets. Bautista Agut won on hard in Jan 2022, 3rd set tie break. Clay win %'s are better for Hurkacz.
Hurkacz reached the 3rd round last season. He beat Draper in a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round. Title in Estoril last week. 3rd round of the French Open.
Bautista Agut reached the 2nd round last season. He has come through the qual rounds. He beat Acosta in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH final in Nov. 2nd round of the French Open. 3rd rounds in Madrid and Barcelona.
12 month clay stats are better for Hurk on serve and strongly favour Agut on return. Recent performances on all surfaces favour Agut. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Hurkacz around 1.25 to 1.30 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner. Agut has been in poor form for a while but more recently has shown an improvement. This should be a very tight match.

ATP Monte Carlo

Monfils v Medvedev 1.43

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Monfils 2-1. Most recent Mar 2022, hard, Monfils in 3. He won indoors in 2019, 3 sets. Medvedev won indoors in Feb 2019, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Medvedev.
Monfils beat lucky loser Vukic in 3 sets in the 1st round. He hasn't had a massive amount of clay success. He reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2019!
Medvedev reached the q final last season. Title in Rome. 4th round in Madrid.
12 month clay stats are better for Medvedev. Monfils will cause him a few problems.
Lay Medvedev around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Medvedev around 1.90 to 2.10.

9th April

ATP Monte Carlo

Hurkacz 1.77 v Draper

Due to start at 12:00

Hurkacz 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Draper in straight sets. Hurkacz won on clay in Apr 2023(Monte Carlo), 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Hurkacz.
Hurkacz reached the 3rd round last season. Title in Estoril last week. 3rd round of the French Open.
Draper reached the 2nd round last season. Q finals in Lyon.
12 month stats are better for Hurkacz on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Draper. Recent performances are better for Hurkacz.
Back Hurkacz around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

ATP Monte Carlo

Coric v Struff 1.93

Due to start at 3 pm

Struff 4-2. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Struff in 3rd set tie break. He won on clay in 2019, 5 sets. Clay win %'s are quite even.
Coric lost in the 1st round last year. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rome. Semis in Madrid.
Struff reached the q finals as qualifier last season. He beat Baez in the 1st round as underdog. Final in Madrid as qualifier.
12 month clay stats are almost identical. Struff seems to like conditions inn MC. Slight edge to him.
Lay Coric around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

8th April

ATP Monte Carlo

Cerundolo 1.65 v Altmaier

Due to start at 11:30 am

H2H 1-1. Most recent July 2022, clay, Cerundolo in 3. Altmaier won on clay in 2019, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are a little better for Altmaier.
Cerundolo reached the 2nd round last year, losing in 3 sets to Berrettini. Semis in Rio. Semis in Bastad. 4th round at the French Open. Final in Lyon. Q finals in Rome and Barcelona.
Altmaier lost in the qual rounds. Q finals in Hamburg. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid.
12 month ATP stats are fairly even. recent performances are better for Cerundolo.
Back Cerundolo around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Update: Cerundolo served first and went 15:40 behind. I was expecting him to win in 2 sets so I place a small back on him. he recovered to hold serve. There were no more break points until Altmaier served at 2-3. he was broken to 15. I removed the liability to leave a free bet on Cerundolo. Cerundolo faced a break point in the next game but held. He then broke serve to take the set.

I left the small free bet to run.

In the second set, Altmaier went a break ahead but Cerundolo broke back. Cerundolo took the set in a tie break. 

Cerundolo won 6-2, 7-6.

ATP Monte Carlo

Tabilo 1.63 v O'Connell

Due to start at 1 pm

Tabilo 1-0 (Mar 2023, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Tabilo.
Tabilo reached the final in Santiago last month. Most of his tennis is played in Challengers. CH title and semi final in Nov.
O'Connell has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Geneva. Semis in Munich in April. Q finals in Marrakech in 2023.
12 month ATP stats are quite even on serve. Return stats are stronger for Tabilo.
Back Tabilo around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Update: There was just 1 break in the first set and went to Tabilo. In set 2, he went a break ahead. O'Connell broke back to get to 4-4 but was immediately broken again. 

We never got near my target price. No trade.

Tabilo won 6-3, 6-4. 

7th April

ATP Marrakech

Carballes Baena v Berrettini 1.44

Due to start at 3 pm

Berrettini 2-1. Most recent Oct 2022, hard, Berrettini in 2. Baena won indoors in 2022, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Berrettini.
Baena won the title last season. He had an easy win in the 1st round. He beat Evans in 2 close sets in the 2nd round. He beat De Alboran in 3 sets in the q final. 2 sets win over Kotov. 2nd round in Cordoba. CH title in Sep. 3rd round in Rome.
Berrettini lost just 3 games in the 1st round. He beat Munar in 3 sets in the 2nd round. He beat Sonego in 2 close sets in the q final. He needed 3 sets against in form Navone in the semis. He reached the 3rd round in Monte Carlo in April 2023. He has had injury issues for months. He reached a CH final on hard in March.
12 month clay state are better for Berrettini. Stats for the tournament favour him on serve.
Back Berrettini around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.

Update: Baena broke first to lead 3-1. We didn't quite get the target price but I backed Berrettini. I often back after a break of serve but if I don't get my target entry price, I reduce my stake a little. Berrettini broke back in the next game (this is why I back after the break!).

I removed some of the liability. Berrettini broke to lead 6-5 and I removed the remaining liability. He went 0-40 behind when serving for the set but recovered to hold. 

I left the free bet to run. In set 2, Berrettini faced 3 break points in his 1st service game but recovered to hold. He won the next 4 games to lead 5-1 and held the lead to the end.

Berrettini won 7-5, 6-2.

WTA Charleston

Kasatkina v Collins 1.40

Due to start at 6 pm

Kasatkina 2-1. Most recent Aug 2021, hard, Collins in 3. Kasatkina won on hard in Feb 2021, 3 sets. She won on clay in May 2018, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Collins.
Kasatkina reached the semis last season. 3 sets win over Kessler in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kalinina in the 2nd round but she did not serve well, winning less than half her serve points. She beat Cristian in 3 sets in the q final. 3rd set tie break win over Pegula in the semis. Q finals in Palermo. 4th round at the French Open. 4th rounds in Rome and Madrid.
Collins lost in the 1st round last year. She had some strong results on clay in 2021 but has had little clay success since. She won the title in Miami last week and I thought she might not care about this week but she proved me wrong. Perhaps as this is her last season before she retires, she is trying to get the most from it. Easy win over Badosa in the 1st round. She beat Jabeur in 3 sets and Stephens in 2 sets yesterday. 2 sets win over Mertens in the q final. 2 sets win over a poor Sakkari in the semis.
Stats for the tournament are better for Collins on serve. She has lost just 1 set. With the exception of her match with Jabeur when she faced 12 bp's and was broken 4 times, she has been really hard to break. She was broken a total of 5 times in the other 4 matches. Kasatkina's return game has been strong this week.
It's hard to go against Collins. Back Collins around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Update: Collins took a 2-0 lead after Kasatkina saved 3 bp's. She broke again at the end of the set. Even though Collins had a really low 1st serve percentage of 36% in the set she looked the stronger player. I did not lay in the 2nd set. She easily took the set 6-1.

Collins won 6-2, 6-1. No trade

6th April

WTA Charleston

Pegula 1.56 v Kasatkina

Due to start at 5:30 pm

Pegula 2-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Kasatkina by walkover. Pegula won on hard in Sep 2023, 2 easy sets. She won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are even.
Pegula reached the semis last season. She needed a 3rd set tie break against Anisimova in the 1st round. Easy win over Linette in the 3rd round. She beat Azarenka in a 3rd set tie break. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid.
Kasatkina reached the semis last season. 3 sets win over Kessler in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kalinina in the 2nd round but she did not serve well, winning less than half her serve points. She beat Cristian in 3 sets in the q final. Q finals in Palermo. 4th round at the French Open. 4th rounds in Rome and Madrid.
12 month clay stats favour Pegula on serve. Return stats are better for Kasatkina. Stats for the tournament favour Pegula on serve. I'm not sure what happened to her in the 2nd set against Azarenka but she bounced back well.
Back Pegula around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Charleston

Sakkari v Collins 1.78

Due to start at 7pm

Sakkari 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Collins in 2. Sakkari won on hard I Oct 2022, 3 sets. She won on hard in Aug 2018, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Collins.
Sakkari had a straight sets win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sharma in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Kudermetova in the q final. She reached the semis in Madrid.
Collins lost in the 1st round last year. She had some strong results on clay in 2021 but has had little clay success since. She won the title in Miami last week and I thought she might not care about this week but she proved me wrong. Perhaps as this is her last season before she retires, she is trying to get the most from it. Easy win over Badosa in the 1st round. She beat Jabeur in 3 sets and Stephens in 2 sets yesterday. 2 sets win over Mertens in the q final.
12 month clay stats are better for Sakkari on serve and favour Collins on return. Stats for the tournament are stronger for Sakkari. Collins has faced tougher opponents.
Lay Collins around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

5th April

WTA Charleston

Kudermetova v Sakkari 1.55

Due to start at 8:30 pm

Sakkari 3-1. Most recent Oct 2022, hard, Sakkari in 3. She won on hard in Jan 2022 and Aug 2021. Kudermetova won on hard in 2019. Clay win %'s are close but favour Kudermetova in the last 12 months.
Kudermetova lost in the 2nd round last season. She beat Rogers in 2 close sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Haddad Maia in the 3rd round. Semis in Rome and Madrid.
Sakkari had a straight sets win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sharma in the 3rd round. She reached the semis in Madrid.
Stats for the tournament are better for Sakkari. recent performances on all surfaces are better for Sakkari. Kudermetova has been in poor form for a while but has raised her level this week. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Sakkari around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Bogota

Osorio Serrano 1.74 v Maria

Due to start at 10:30 pm

Maria 1-0 (Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Osorio.
Osorio had a 2 sets win in the 1st round but was broken 5 times. Straight sets win over Todoni. She reached the q finals in Palermo in July. 2nd round at the French Open. 4th round in Rome. 3rd round in Madrid.
Maria won the title last season. Straight sets win over Bondar in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets against Riera in the 2nd round. She has reached 4 x WTA 2nd rounds since then.
12 month clay stats are better for Maria on serve. Return stats and predicted holds are better for Osorio. Maria has faced tougher opponents. Recent performances are better for Maria.
Lay Osorio around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

4th April

WTA Charleston

Collins 1.44 v Jabeur

Due to start at 4 pm

Collins 2-1. Most recent Mar 2022, hard, Collins in 2. Jabeur won on hard in Oct 2021, 2 sets. Collins won on clay in 2020, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Jabeur.
Collins lost in the 1st round last year. She had some strong results on clay in 2021 but has had little clay success since. She won the title in Miami last week and I thought she might not care about this week but she proved me wrong. Perhaps as this is her last season before she retires, she is trying to get the most from it. Easy win over Badosa in the 1st round.
Jabeur won the title last season. Q finals at the French Open. Semis in Stuttgart. Her form this season has been poor.
Back Collins around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

WTA Charleston

Svitolina 1.40 v Saville

Due to start at 5:30 pm

Svitolina 7-3. Most recent July 2019, grass, Svitolina in 2. She won their last 6 matches. Saville won their only clay meeting in 2016. Clay win %'s favour Saville.
Svitolina lost in the 1st round last year. Q finals at the French Open. Title in Strasbourg. CH semi in May.
Saville has come through the qual rounds. She beat Korpatsch in 3 sets in the 1st round. Semis in Hamburg in July as qualifier. 3rd round at the French Open.
Back Svitolina around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability around 1.50.

3rd April

WTA Charleston

Kasatkina 1.40 v Krueger

Due to start at 5:30 pm

Kasatkina 1-0 (Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Kasatkina.
Kasatkina reached the semis last season. Q finals in Palermo. 4th round at the French Open. 4th rounds in Rome and Madrid.
Krueger lost in the qual rounds last year. She beat Lee in 2 close sets in the 1st round. ITF final in April 2023.
12 month WTA stats are a little better for Krueger on serve. Kasatkina leads on return and predicted holds favour her. Recent performances are better for Kasatkina.
Back Kasatkina around 1.90 to 2.00.

WTA Bogota

Pigossi 1.51 v Bara

Due to start at 7:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Bara.
Pigossi reached the q finals last season. She beat Podoroska in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH q final last week. CH title in Dec. CH q final in July.
Bara lost in the qual rounds last season. She beat Zavatska in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. ITF title in Oct. ITF semi in Oct. ITF semis in Sep. ITF title in April.
12 month WTA stats are stronger for Pigossi. 3 month stats on all tours also favour Pigossi on serve.
Back Pigossi around 1.95 to 2.10,

2nd April

Something I should have posted yesterday is that we need to note that most of the players this week are playing their first clay matches for a while. Most are making the switch from hard courts. We may get a few odd results in the first rounds.

WTA Charleston

Frech v Stephens 1.52

Due to start at 4 pm

Stephens 2-0. Most recent Sep 2022, clay, 3 sets. Both matches were on clay. Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Frech lost in the qual rounds last year. 2nd round at the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid as qualifier.
Stephens reached the 2nd round last season. 4th round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat. CH title in May.
12 month WTA stats are a little better for Frech on serve. Return stats favour Stephens. Recent performances on all surfaces favour Stephens.
Back Stephens around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.

Update: Stephens took the first set 6-0 and went a break up in the 2nd set. Frech did break straight back but was broken in her next 2 service games.

Stephens won 6-0, 6-2. No trade.

WTA Charleston

Cocciaretto 1.64 v Bogdan

Due to start at 5:30 pm

Bogdan 1-0 (May 2021, clay, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are even.
Cocciaretto reached a CH semi last week. Title in Lausanne in July. 3rd round at the French Open. CH title in April 2023.
Bogdan won a CH title in Sep. Q finals in Lausanne. CH title in July.
12 month WTA stats are better for Bogdan on serve. Return stats are much better for Cocciaretto. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Cocciaretto.
Back Cocciaretto around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.

Update: Bogdan broke to lead 3-1. There were no more breaks in the next 3 games. Before Cocciaretto served at 2-5, I hedged for a loss. I intended to lay in set 2 but just in case she was broken again, I got out. She was broken again. Note, I use this tactic quite often near the end of a set. 

Bogdan was serving first in the 2nd set and I laid her. She was broken. I took some liability out. Cocciaretto held easily and broke again to lead 3-0. I hedged for a small profit. She would break again to take the set.

In the 3rd set, Bogdan broke in the 1st game. I like to lay a player when they're a break ahead in the deciding set but as it was so early in the set, I stayed out. Cocciaretto broke back to get to 3-3. She was broken in the next game and I laid Bogdan. I kept the liability quite low. 

Bogdan was broken when she serve w=for the match. I hedged. Cocciaretto took the set in a tie break.

Cocciaretto won 2-6, 6-1, 7-6.

1st April

WTA Charleston

Linette v Martic 1.80

Due to start at 4 pm

Linette 3-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Martic in 2. Linette won on hard in 2021, 2 sets and in 2019, 3rd set tie break. Clay win %'s are better for Martic.
Linette reached the 3rd round last year. 3rd round in Rome and Madrid.
Martic reached the 2nd round of the French Open. Q finals in Madrid. She did not play many clay events in 2023.
12 month clay stats are quite close on serve. Return stats are a little better for Martic on return. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Martic around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

Update: Linette served at 1-1 and went 15-40 behind. I placed a small back on Linette (I favoured Martic to win but thought it would be close).  Linette recovered to hold. My main target was to lay Linette. If I can build up some profit before I get my target entry price it will keep the liability lower. 

3 games later, Martic was broken to 0. I hedged and laid Linette. There were no more breaks in the set which Linette took.

I already had a lay of Linette so did not add to the lay in set 2. 

Martic served first and went 0-40 behind. She was not playing well and I hedged for a small loss. Martic recovered to hold but was broken in her next service game. There were no more break points in the match.

Linette won 6-3, 6-4.

WTA Charleston

Liu 1.68 v Rogers

Due to start at 8:30 pm

Rogers 2-0. Most recent Feb 2023, hard, 2 sets. She won on clay in this tournament in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Liu.
Liu lost in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds. Semis in Budapest in July. CH q final in July. 2nd round at the French Open.
Rogers reached the 3rd round last season. She doesn't play many clay events.
12 month clay stats are better for Rogers on serve. She has had some injury issues. Liu has been in decent form in the last month.
Back Liu around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Update: I expected a lot more from Liu but she had a terrible match. 

Liu was broken in the 3rd game. I backed her. Rogers held easily and then broke Liu again in the next game. I hedged for the loss. She would be broken again to lose the set 6-1. 

I tried a small lay in set 1. Rogers was broken and I hedged. I had a small red overall. Rogers won the next 6 games!

Rogers won 6-1, 6-1.

31st March

WTA Challenger, Antalya

Maneiro v Begu 1.59

Due to start at 11 am

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Begu.
Maneiro has been favourite in every round. In the last year she reached 2 CH q finals. Most of her best results are in ITF's.
Begu has not lost a set this week. She reached a CH final in July. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid. 3rd round in Charleston.
Stats for the tournament are better for Begu overall. This is her first tournament since Aug.
Back Begu around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Update: Begu was broken in the 1st game. I placed a small back on Begu. In the next game, Maneiro faced a bp and I removed some liability. She recovered to hold for a 2-0 lead. In the next game, Begu was broken to 0. 

I backed Begu again. In Maneiro's next service game she went 15-40 behind and I removed some liability. When Begu completed the break, I removed most of my liability. Begu was broken again to trail 2-5. 

Maneiro had faced bp's in 2 of her 3 service games but as I already had virtually a free bet on Begu. Maneiro served for the set and saved 3 bp's before she took the game and the set. 

Begu served first in set 2, so I let her have her service game. She held to 30 and I laid Maneiro (adding to my position on Begu). The next 2 games were easy holds. In the next game, Maneiro faced bp. I removed some liability. Begu missed 3 bp's in the game but took the 4th. I hedged.

Begu was broken back 3 games later. She broke again to take the set.  I did not trade the 3rd set. 

Begu was poor in the 3rd set.

Maneiro won 6-2, 4-6, 6-2.

ATP Miami

Dimitrov v Sinner 1.28

Due to start at 7 pm

Sinner 2-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Sinner in 3. he won on hard in Miami 2023, 2 sets. Dimitrov won on clay in 2020. Hard win %'s are better for Sinner.
Dimitrov reached the 3rd round last year. Tough 3 sets win over Tabilo in the 2nd round. He lost just 1 game to Hanfmann in the 3rd round. He beat Hurkacz in a 3rd set tie break. Straight sets win over Alcaraz in the q final. 3 sets win over Zverev in the semis. 4th round in Indian Wells and 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Shanghai. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Chengdu and 3rd round at the US Open.
Sinner reached the final last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He needed 3 sets to beat Griekspoor in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over O'Connell in the 4th round. Comfortable 2 sets win over Machac in the q final. He lost just 3 games to Medvedev in the semis. Semis in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. 4th round in Shanghai. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open and title in Toronto.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Sinner overall. 1 month stats are pretty even on serve but favour Sinner on return. Predicted holds favour Sinner. Stats for the tournament are better for Sinner overall. Dimitrov has been in strong form this season but raised his level even more this week.
Lay Sinner around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back sinner around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.50. 3 sets.

Update: Dimitrov's bubble was well and truly burst. Sinner broke to leads 3-2, I laid him. Sinner then held easily and in the next game Dimitrov faced bp. I hedged for a loss. For Dimitrov to have any chance, he was going to have to serve well. And he wasn't serving well. 

Sinner broke again to take the set.

3 sets did not look likely at all. Not that is is always easy to predict that the second set will be the same as the first. In fact, second sets are often totally different. I just didn't want to lay Sinner so stayed out. Sinner took the 2nd set easily. 

Sinner won 6-3, 6-1.

30th March

WTA Miami

Collins v Rybakina 1.63

Due to start at 6 pm

Rybakina 3-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Rybakina in 3. She won twice in Jan 2023 on hard in 3 sets. Collins won in 2021 on hard in 2 tie breaks.
Collins reached the 3rd round last season. She started slowly against Pera in the 1st round but easily took sets 2 and 3. Easy wins over Potapova and Avanesyan. 2 sets win over Cirstea in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the q final. Another straight sets win over Alexandrova in the semis. Q finals in Austin. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal.
Rybakina reached the final last season. She needed 3 sets against Tauson which was a surprise. She also needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Keys in the 4th round. In the q final she beat Sakkari in 3 close sets. The semi final with Azarenka was a little odd. Rybakina took a tight 1st set before losing the next set 0-6. She took the 3rd set in a tie break after being broken when serving for the match. Final in Doha and title in Abu Dhabi. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing and 3rd round at the US Open.
12 and 3 month stats re better for Rybakina on serve. return stats are close and predicted holds favour her. In the last month, Rybakina leads on serve but return stats and predicted holds favour Collins. Decent chance of 3 sets. Collins has won her last 12 sets in the tournament. She has been favourite in every round. Rybakina has needed 3 sets in 4 of her 5 matches. She won the 1st set in the last 4 rounds. All their previous meetings were very close. Stats for the tournament are better for Collins.
Lay Rybakina around 1.40 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.

Collins has a decent chance to take the title.

WTA Challenger San Luis Potosi

Potapova v Cocciaretto 1.40

Due to start at 11 pm

Cocciaretto 3-2. Most recent Mar 2023, clay, Cocciaretto in 2. She won on hard in Mar 2021, 2 sets. She won on clay in Sep 2020, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Cocciaretto.
Podoroska reached the 2nd round last season. She beat Kessler in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Stakusic in the 2nd round. Easy win in the q final. 2 CH semis in Nov. 2nd round in Hamburg in July. CH semi and q final in June and 2nd round at the French Open.
Cocciaretto won the title last season. Easy win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Zidansek in the 2nd round. Easy win in the q final. Title in Lausanne in July. 3rd round at the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid.
12 month CH stats favour Cocciaretto. Stats for the tournament favour Cocciaretto.
Back Cocciaretto above 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.

29th March

ATP Miami

Medvedev v Sinner 1.59

Due to start at 7 pm

Medvedev 6-4. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Sinner in 5. he won indoors in Nov 2023 and Oct 2023, 3 sets. He won their last 4 matches. Hard win %'s are a little better for Sinner.
Medvedev won the title last season. 2 sets win over Fucsovics in the 2nd round. He beat Norrie in straight sets in the 3rd round and Koepfer in 2 sets in the 4th round. another 2 sets win in the q final over Jarry. Final in Indian Wells. Semis in Dubai. Final of the Aus Open. Final in Beijing. Final at the US Open.
Sinner reached the final last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He needed 3 sets to beat Griekspoor in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over O'Connell in the 4th round. Comfortable 2 sets win over Machac in the q final. Semis in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. 4th round in Shanghai. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open and title in Toronto.
12, 3 and 1 month hard stats are better for Sinner on serve. Slight edge to Medvedev on return. Medvedev has not lost a set.
Lay Sinner around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.85. Back Sinner around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

ATP Miami

Dimitrov v Zverev 1.69

Due to start at 11 pm

Zverev 7-1. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Zverev in 2. He won their last 7 matches. Hard win %'s are even.
Dimitrov reached the 3rd round last year. Tough 3 sets win over Tabilo in the 2nd round. He lost just 1 game to Hanfmann in the 3rd round. He beat Hurkacz in a 3rd set tie break. Straight sets win over Alcaraz in the q final4th round in Indian Wells and 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Shanghai. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Chengdu and 3rd round at the US Open.
Zverev lost in the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Aliassime in the 2nd round. He beat Eubanks in 2 close sets in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Khachanov in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Marozsan in the q final. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in Los Cabos. Semis at the Aus Open. Semis in Beijing. Title in Chengdu. Q finals at the US Open and Semis in Cinci.
1 month and 3 month stats favour Dimitrov on serve. He played one of the matches of his career in the last round. It will be very hard to repeat that level today.
Back Zverev around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.

28th March

WTA Miami

Rybakina 1.36 v Azarenka

Due to start at 7 pm

Rybakina 3-0. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Azarenka retired in set 3. Rybakina won on hard in 2023 and 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the final last season. She needed 3 sets against Tauson which was a surprise. She also needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Keys in the 4th round. In the q final she beat Sakkari in 3 close sets. Final in Doha and title in Abu Dhabi. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing and 3rd round at the US Open.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Stearns in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Zheng as underdog in the 3rd round. She beat in form Boulter in 2 sets in the 4th round. She needed 3 sets against Putintseva in the q final. Poor loss to Dolehide in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha and 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month hard stats favour Rybakina on serve and favour Azarenka on return. 3 month stats are stronger for Rybakina. 1 month stats are better for Rybakina on serve and better for Azarenka on return. In all 3 time periods, predicted holds favour Rybakina. Rybakina has better stats on serve in the tournament.
Lay Rybakina around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Rybakina around 2.10 to 2.20.

WTA Miami

Alexandrova v Collins 1.60

Due to start at 00:30 am

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Collins.
Alexandrova reached the q finals last season. Straight sets win over Vekic in the 2nd round. She beat Pavlyuchenkova in 3 sets as underdog in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Swiatek in the 4th round. She beat Pegula in 3 sets as underdog in the q final. 3rd round in Doha and semis in Adelaide. Q finals in Tokyo. 3rd round at the US Open.
Collins reached the 3rd round last season. She started slowly against Pera in the 1st round but easily took sets 2 and 3. Easy wins over Potapova and Avanesyan. 2 sets win over Cirstea in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the q final. Q finals in Austin. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Collins. 1 month stats are pretty even on serve and strongly favour Collins on return. Stats for the tournament favour Collins. Alexandrova has really raised her level in this tournament and this can easily go to 3 sets.
Lay Collins around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.80. Back Collins around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

27th March

WTA Miami

Garcia v Collins 1.51

Due to start at 5 pm

Collins 3-0. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2022 and 2019 in 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Collins.
Garcia lost in the 2nd round last year. She came through the 2nd round this week when Tomova retired shortly before the end of set 2. She beat Osaka in 2 sets in a rain delayed match. 3 sets win over Gauff in the 4th round. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Guadalajara.
Collins reached the 3rd round last season. She started slowly against Pera in the 1st round but easily took sets 2 and 3. Easy wins over Potapova and Avanesyan. 2 sets win over Cirstea in the 4th round. Q finals in Austin. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal.
12, 3 and 1 month stats favour Garcia on serve and Collins on return. Stats for the tournament are close on serve but favour Collins. her return stats are much stronger. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Collins around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Miami

Alexandrova v Pegula 1.65

Due to start at 11 pm

Pegula 1-0 (May 2021, clay, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are stronger for Pegula.
Alexandrova reached the q finals last season. Straight sets win over Vekic in the 2nd round. She beat Pavlyuchenkova in 3 sets as underdog in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Swiatek in the 4th round. 3rd round in Doha and semis in Adelaide. Q finals in Tokyo. 3rd round at the US Open.
Pegula reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 2nd round when Zhu retired in set 2. 2 sets win over Fernandez in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Navarro in the 4th round. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide. Title in Seoul. Final in Tokyo. 4th round at the US Open. Title in Montreal.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Pegula. 1 month stats are a little better for Alexandrova. 1 month return stats and predicted holds favour Pegula. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Pegula if she gets an early break of serve. Remove liability if Alexandrova then gets a bp. Back Pegula around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

26th March

WTA Miami

Azarenka 1.41 v Putintseva

Due to start at 6 pm

Azarenka 2-0. Most recent Feb 2022, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in Feb 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %'s in the last year are pretty even.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Stearns in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Zheng as underdog in the 3rd round. She beat in form Boulter in 2 sets in the 4th round. Poor loss to Dolehide in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha and 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
Putintseva lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Bucsa in 3 sets in the 1st round. Beat Samsonova in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Minnen in the 3rd round. Beat Kalinina in 2 close sets in the 4th round. 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Hua Hin. Q finals in Hobart as qualifier. Semis in Guangzhou and Q finals in Osaka.
12 month and 3 month stats are a little better for Azarenka. 1 month stats favour Putintseva overall.
Lay Azarenka around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Azarenka around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Miami

Sakkari v Rybakina 1.40

Due to start at 11 pm

Rybakina 2-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Rybakina in a 3rd set tie break. Sakkari won on hard in Mar 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Sakkari lost in the 2nd round last year. Easy win over Yuan in the 2nd round. She beat Yastremska in 2 sets in the 3rd round. Walkover in the 4th round when Kalinskaya pulled out. She reached the final in Indian Wells. Q final in Beijing. Title in Guadalajara. Final in Washington.
Rybakina reached the final last season. She has not played for a month after withdrawing from the Dubai q finals. She needed 3 sets against Tauson which was a surprise. She also needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Keys in the 4th round. She didn't serve well. Final in Doha and title in Abu Dhabi. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing and 3rd round at the US Open.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Rybakina. 1 month stats are more even.
Lay Rybakina around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.65. Back Rybakina around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

25th March

WTA Miami

Azarenka 1.79 v Boulter

Due to start at 6 pm

1sqt meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Boulter.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Stearns in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Zheng as underdog in the 3rd round. Poor loss to Dolehide in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha and 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
Boulter Came through the 2nd round when her opponent retired in set 2. Straight sets win over Haddad Maia in the 3rd round as slight underdog. She won the title in San Diego this month. 2nd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month stats are very even on serve. return stats favour Boulter. 3 month stats favour Boulter. 1 month stats favour her on serve.
Lay Azarenka around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10. Strong chance of 3 sets.

Update: In her second service game, Boulter went 0-40 behind. I laid Azarenka. Boulter recovered to hold. She was broken in her next service game and Azarenka led 4-2. I added to my lay of Azarenka.

Azarenka came under pressure in her next service game but held. In the next game, Boulter again faced 3 bp but recovered to hold. She broke Azarenka in the next game and I hedged. I left the match alone after that. I was favouring Boulter pre match but her serve is a huge weapon when playing well and she was facing bp's in every service game other than her first service game of the match. 

Boulter did have a bp for a 6-5 lead but didn't take it and was broken in the next game which gave the set to Azarenka. 

Boulter's issues on serve continued into set 2 and Azarenka took a 5-0 lead and took the set 6-1. 

Azarenka won 7-5, 6-1.

WTA Miami

Navarro v Pegula 1.66

Due to start at 11 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Navarro lost in the qual rounds last season. Easy win over Hunter in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Paolini in the 3rd round. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in San Diego and 3rd rounds in Doha and the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
Pegula reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 2nd round when Zhu retired in set 2. 2 sets win over Fernandez in the 3rd round. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide. Title in Seoul. Final in Tokyo. 4th round at the US Open. Title in Montreal.
12 month stats favour Pegula. 3 month stats are better for Pegula on serve and favour Navarro on return. 1 month stats favour Pegula on serve and Navarro on return. Predicted holds are better for Navarro. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Pegula around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.65.

Update: Navarro broke to lead 3-1. I backed Pegula. In the next game, Pegula had a bp but I did not remove any liability. She did not take the break chance and Navarro led 4-1. 

Pegula held easily and then broke Navarro in the next game. I removed the liability to leave all my profit on Pegula. She broke again to lead 6-5 but was broken when serving for the set. She easily won the tie break. 

I left my free bet on Pegula to run. There was only 1 break in the second set, although Pegula faced 5 bp's in her first 2 service games.

Pegula won 7-6, 6-3.  

24th March

WTA Miami

Paolini v Navarro 1.64

Due to start at 3 pm

Navarro 2-0. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in Sep 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s favour Navarro.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Volynets in 2 tight sets in the 2nd round. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title in Dubai. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir, semis in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing. Q finals in Cinci.
Navarro lost in the qual rounds last season. Easy win over Hunter in the 2nd round. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in San Diego and 3rd rounds in Doha and the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
12 month hard stats are better for Navarro. 3 month and 1 month stats are better for Paolini on serve. Predicted holds also favour Paolini.
Recent performances are better for Paolini. Lay Navarro around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.95. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Navarro broke to lead 2-1. I had laid when Paolini was 15-40 down. She saved one of the bp's but Navarro took the second one. 

Navarro broke again and took the set. As I already had a lay on Navarro and Paolini had not had a good opening set, I did not add to the position at the start of set 2.

In set 2, Paolini served first and faced 2 bp but recovered to hold. She was broken in her next service game and I added to my lay of Navarro who was now a set and a break ahead. Paolini immediately broke back. I did not remove any liability and wanted to give her a chance to hold serve. She again faced bp's but held. In the next game she broke Navarro to lead 4-2 and I hedged. 

the rest of the set was a mess with 2 more breaks. Paolini held serve after facing a bp and took the set.

I stayed away from the 3rd set which Navarro won 6-0.

Navarro won 6-2, 3-6, 6-0.

WTA Miami

Garcia v Osaka 1.46

Due to start at 7 pm

Osaka 2-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Osaka in 2. Garcia won on hard in Jan 2024, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Osaka.
Garcia lost in the 2nd round last year. She came through the 2nd round this week when Tomova retired shortly before the end of set 2. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Guadalajara.
Osaka had an easy win over Cocciaretto in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Svitolina in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha. She reached the final in Miami in 2022.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Osaka. Their 2 matches in 2024 were really tight. Osaka's level since those matches has improved.
Lay Osaka if she gets an early break of serve. Remove liability if Garcia then gets a bp. Back Osaka round 2.10 to 2.20.

Update: I started to trade this match but when it was delayed by rain in the 1st set, I left it.

There were a few bp's but no breaks in the first set. Garcia took the set in a tie break. If I was trading it, I would have laid Garcia after the set. She was broken in the 6th game of the set and I would either have hedged or left a free bet  on Osaka to give her chance to take the set. The second option would not have been good as Osaka was broken back straight away and would be broken again to lose the set and the match.

Garcia won 7-6, 7-5. 

23rd March

WTA Miami

Zheng 1.69 v Azarenka 

Due to start at 6 pm

Azarenka 1-0 (Jan 2023, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s favour Zheng in the last 12 months. They are even in 2024.
Zheng reached the 4th round last year. She came through the 2nd round when Siniakova retired in set 3. Q finals in Dubai. Final at the Aus Open. Title in Zhengzhou and q finals at the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Stearns in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Poor loss to Dolehide in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha and 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month and 3 month stats favour Zheng on serve. return stats and predicted holds favour Azarenka. Same pattern in the last month. Recent performances are better for Azarenka. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Zheng around 1.40 and remove liability around 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Azarenka got the first break of serve to lead 4-2.  As I expected 3 sets, I laid Azarenka. There were no breaks until Azarenka served for the set at 5-3. She was broken after wasting 3 set points and saving 4 break points. I hedged. 

Azarenka broke again in the next game to take the set.

Azarenka served first in set 2 so I laid her using the profit to keep the liability low. Azarenka was broken in the first game. I removed liability and shifted most of the profit to Azarenka as I favoured her to win. She broke back in the next game. A late break gave the set to Azarenka.

She won 6-4, 7-5.

WTA Miami

Putintseva 1.77 v Minnen

Due to start at 9 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are quite even.
Putintseva lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Bucsa in 3 sets in the 1st round. Beat Samsonova in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Hua Hin. Q finals in Hobart as qualifier. Semis in Guangzhou and Q finals in Osaka.
Minnen lost in the qual rounds. I expected her to beat Liu but perhaps she knew she had a lucky loser place. She beat Tsurenko in 2 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. CH semi in March. Semis in Guangzhou and 3rd round at the US Open. CH final in Aug.
12 and 3 month stats favour Putintseva overall but Minnen leads in service games won % and 1st serve points won %.
Back Putintseva around 2.30 and remove liability around 1.70. Sets should be close.

Update: Putintseva took a 4-0 lead in set 1. She did not face a bp in the set. I was expecting 3 sets so I let Minnen have her serve at the start of set 2. She held to 15 and I laid Putintseva. Minnen broke to lead 3-1. I removed some of the liability. She held for a 4-1 lead and I hedged.

I did not get involved in the 3rd set. A late break gave Putintseva the chance to serve for the match and she did so successfully. 

Putintseva won 6-2, 2-6, 6-4.

22nd March

WTA Miami

Paolini 1.57 v Volynets

Due to start at 3 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title in Dubai. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir, semis in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing. Q finals in Cinci.
Volynets lost in the qual rounds last year. She made it through the qual rounds this week. 3 sets win over Kenin in the 1st round. 3rd round in Indian Wells. CH semis in Feb. Q finals in Hua Hin. CH semi in Jan.
12 month serve stats are pretty even. Slight edge to Volynets on return. 3 month stats are better for Paolini on serve. 1 min the stats are much stronger for Paolini. recent performances are better for her. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Paolini around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

Update: Paolini broke first to lead 2-0. I expected a close match so I laid her. Volynets immediately broke back and I removed most of the liability. The score reached 4-4 which is often an exit point for me. As my green was not on the player that I favoured to win, I hedged. The set went to a tie break which Paolini won 10-8. Volynets had 2 sets points in the tie break.

Volynets was serving first in set 2 and i let her have her service game before laying. She was broken so I was laying Paolini with a set and a break lead. 

Paolini was broken in the very next game and I removed the liability. The green was on Volynets. Unfortunately she was broken again in the next game. I held my position hoping for another "set and a break" recovery. Paolini held her next 2 service games without facing a bp so I hedged.

Volynets broke 2 games later to get back to 4-4! She would be broken again and Paolini served for the match at 6-5 and held to 15.

Paolini won 7-6, 7-5.

WTA Miami

Potapova v Collins 1.60

Due to start at 6 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Collins.
Potapova reached the q finals last year. Q finals in Indian Wells. 3rd round in Dubai. Q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego.
Collins reached the 3rd round last season. She started slowly against Pera in the 1st round but easily took sets 2 and 3. Q finals in Austin. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Collins. 1 month stats favour her on serve.
Back Collins around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Update: Collins was broken in the first game. I backed her. The next 2 games were easy holds but Collins broke back to get to 2-2. I removed some of the liability. Potapova did not win another game in the set. As she had been broken in her last 3 service games, I did not back Potapova in set 2.

Collins took a 3-0 lead in the 2nd set and I hedged. Collins won 6-2, 6-2.

21st March

WTA Miami

Parry v Haddad Maia 1.63

Due to start at 3 pm

Parry 2-1. Most recent Nov 2021, clay, Parry in 2. All their matches were on clay. Maia's win was by walkover. Hard win %'s are quite even. Parry has the better ROI in the last year and also in 2024.
Parry beat Cristian in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Austin. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
Maia reached the 3rd round last season. Semis in Abu Dhabi. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in San Diego and 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month stats favour Parry on serve. 3 month and 1 month stats favour Parry overall. Recent performances are better for Parry.
Lay Maia around 1.40 and remove liability at 2.00. Good chance of 3 sets.

Update: Parry took a 2-0 lead in set 1. I backed Maia. Maia broke in the very next game and I hedged. As I now had some profit, I could lay Maia and my break even price was around 1.45. 

Parry broke again to lead 4-2 and I removed some of my liability. This time she kept the lead and took the set.

Maia's stats in the first set weren't great so I let her have her service game before laying. She faced 2 bp's during that game but held. I laid Parry. 

Maia broke to lead 3-1 and I removed almost all liability. Maia would break again to take a 5-1 lead and I hedged. 

I did not trade the 3rd set. There was only 1 break in it and went to Maia.

Haddad Maia won 3-6, 6-1, 6-4.

WTA Miami

Zheng 1.54 v Siniakova

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Siniakova 1-0 (July 2023, grass, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Zheng.
Zheng reached the 4th round last year. Q finals in Dubai. Final at the Aus Open. Title in Zhengzhou and q finals at the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci.
Siniakova retired from the 1st round last season. She beat Bogdan in 2 sets in the 1st round. She took Svitolina to 3 sets in Indian Wells. Took Navarro to 3 sets in San Diego. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Title in Nanchang. Final in Hong Kong. Q finals in Ningbo.
12, 3 and 1 month stats are better for Zheng on serve.
Back Zheng around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.

Update: Siniakova got the first break of serve to lead 3-2. I backed Zheng. Zheng broke back straight asway and  removed most of my liability. 

Siniakova broke again in the next game. I backed Zheng again. In Siniakova's next service game, she faced a bp and I hedged. I favoured Zheng to win comfortably but she was struggling. Siniakova held on to take the set.

I laid Siniakova. The existing profit kept the liability lower. Zheng made a much better start and took a 2-0 lead. I removed the liability to leave a free bet on Zheng. She broke again for a 4-0 lead and I hedged evenly. 

Siniakova got one of the breaks back but Zheng took the set. 

In set 3, Siniakova was broken in the first game and she retired. 

Zheng won 4-6, 6-3, 1-0(ret)

20th March

WTA Miami

Liu v Martic 1.61

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Martic 1-0 (July 2018, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Liu.
Liu reached the 3rd round last year. She has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Seoul. Most of her WTA hard wins were in qual rounds in the last year.
Martic reached the 3rd round last season. Q finals in Auckland. 2nd round of the US Open. She had a good record in 1st rounds in the last year but only once won 2 matches in a week.
12 and 3 month WTA stats are better for Martic on serve.
Back Martic above 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60. Liu can keep it close.

WTA Miami

Hunter 1.62 v Trevisan

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Hunter 1-0 (Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Hunter.
Hunter lost in the 1st round as qualifier last year. She has come through the qual rounds this week. CH final in Feb. 3rd round at the Aus Open as qualifier.
Trevisan reached the q finals last season. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in Hong Kong. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are fairly even. 3 month and 1 month stats are better for Hunter.
Back Hunter around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

19th March

WTA Miami

Bogdan v Siniakova 1.56

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Bogdan 2-1. Most recent Jan 2023, hard, Siniakova in 3. Bogdan's wins were on clay in 2022 and 2021. Hard win %'s are better for Siniakova.
Bogdan lost in the 1st round last year. 3rd round in Dubai as qualifier.
Siniakova retired from the 1st round last season. She took Svitolina to 3 sets in Indian Wells. Took Navarro to 3 sets in San Diego. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Title in Nanchang. Final in Hong Kong. Q finals in Ningbo.
3 month stats on hard re better for Bogdan on serve but strongly favour Siniakova on return. Predicted holds strongly favour Siniakova.
Back Siniakova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Update: Siniakova was broken in the first game. I backed her. She immediately broke back and I removed some of my liability. I let that position run which worked out well as Bogdan would be broken twice more. After the set I removed the remaining liability.

Siniakova won the 2nd set with a late break.

Siniakova won 6-2, 6-4.

WTA Miami

Cristian v Parry 1.59

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Cristian 2-0. Most recent Jan 2021, indoor, 3 sets. She won on clay in 2019, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Parry.
Cristian reached the semis in Prague in July.
Parry reached the 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Austin. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
12, 3 and 1 month stats are stronger for Parry.
Back Parry around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Update: There were no breaks in the 1st set. When Parry served at 5-5, she went 15-40 behind. I chose not to enter on Parry as it was so close to the end of the set and the value on her was not as good as the same would have been early in the set. Parry saved the bp's and took the set in a tie break. 

In set 2, Cristian served first and was broken. Laying a player when they are a set and a break ahead is usually a good entry so I laid Parry. Cristian broke back straight away and I moved the green to Parry for a small free bet. Cristian only won 1 more game in the match.

Parry won 7-6, 6-2. Small profit.

18th March

The Miami main draw matches start on Tuesday. I will include two qualifying matches for today's suggested trades.

WTA Miami, qualifying

Korpatsch v Timofeeva 1.74

Due to start at 3 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Timofeeva.
Korpatsch lost in the 1st round last year. Straight sets win in the previous round as underdog. 2nd round at the Aus Open. 2nd round at the US Open.
Timofeeva had an easy win in the previous round. 4th round at the Aus Open as qualifier. Most of her matches were in ITF's.
3 month WTA stats are better for Timofeeva.
Back Timofeeva around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.

Timofeeva to win in 3 sets.

Update: Timofeeva broke to lead 2-1. As I expected a close match, I placed a small lay on her. Timofeeva had 2 holds to 15 after that so I hedged for a small loss and waited for set 2. That proved to be a good plan as Korpatsch was broken again. Timofeeva took the set 6-2. 

In set 2, Korpatsch was broken in the first game. I laid Timofeeva as she was a set and a break ahead. Korpatsch immediately broke back and I hedged for a small profit. I did not trust Korpatsch on serve. Korpatsch was broken in every service game in the set.

Timofeeva won 6-2, 6-1.

WTA Miami, qualifying

Minnen 1.71 v Liu

Due to start at 6 pm

Minnen 1-0 (May 2023, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Minnen.
Minnen had a straight sets win in the previous qual round. CH semi last week. 2nd round in Doha as qualifier. Semis in Guadalajara and 3rd round at the US Open. CH final in Aug.
Liu reached the 3rd round last season. 3rd set tie break win in the previous qual round as favourite. Q finals in Seoul. CH final in Aug.
12 and 3 month stats favour Minnen. Recent performances are better for Minnen.
Back Minnen around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

I'm favouring Minnen to win.

Update: Minnen was broken in her first service game to trail 0-2. I back ed her. 3 games later, she broken back and I removed most of the liability. She was broken in the next game and Liu took the set 6-3. 

Minnen's stats, especially on 2nd serve, were poor in the first set so I did not add to my position on her in set 2. She was obviously below par and was broken first in set 2. I hedged for a small red. 

Liu won 6-3, 6-2.

17th March

WTA Indian Wells

Swiatek 1.17 v Sakkari

Due to start at 6 pm

Sakkari 3-2. Most recent Mar 2022, hard, Swiatek in 2. She won on hard in Feb 2022, 2 sets. Sakkari won on hard in Nov 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Swiatek.
Swiatek reached the semis last year. She beat Collins in 2 sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Noskova in the 3rd round. Easy win over Putintseva in the 4th round. In the q final she went behind in the 1st set but Wozniacki retired early in set 2. She lost 3 games to Kostyuk in the semi. Semis in Dubai. Title in Doha. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open.
Sakkari reached the semis last season. She beat Shnaider in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. She needed 3 sets against Parry in the 4th round. 3 sets win over Navarro as slight underdog in the q final. She beat Gauff as underdog in the semi final. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Tokyo and title in Guadalajara. Final in Washington.
12, 3 and 1 month stats are better for Swiatek.
Sakkari has served well this week but Swiatek has served better. We may get a slow start from Swiatek.
Lay Swiatek and remove liability at 1.35. Back Swiatek above 1.75.

Update: I laid Swiatek at the start. She held serve to 30 and then broke Sakkari. I added a little extra to my lay at the new lower price. Sakkari broke back 3 games later and I reduced the liability. The next 3 games were holds of serve. At 4-4 I hedged for a small profit. Swiatek got a late break to take the set 6-4. As I was expecting the match to end in 2 sets, I did not lay in the 2nd set. 

Swiatek won 6-4, 6-0.

ATP Indian Wells

Medvedev v Alcaraz 1.45

Due to start at 9 pm

Alcaraz 3-2. Most recent Nov 2023, indoors, Alcaraz in 2. Medvedev won on hard in 2023, 4 sets. Alcaraz won in last year's final in straight sets. Hard win %'s are pretty even.
Medvedev reached the final last year. Easy win in the 2nd round. He needed 3 sets against Korda in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Dimitrov in the 4th round. Another straight sets win in the q final over Rune. He beat Paul in 3 sets in the semi final. Semis in Dubai. Final at the Aus Open. Final in Beijing. US Open Final. Title in Miami.
Alcaraz won the title last season. He needed 3 sets against Arnaldi in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Aliassime in the 3rd round. Comfortable win in the 4th round over Marozsan. Easy win over Zverev in the q final. 3 sets win over Sinner in the simi final. Q finals at the Aus Open. 4th round in Shanghai. Semis in Beijing and the US Open. Final in Cinci.
12 month stats favour Alcaraz overall. 3 month and 1 month stats favour him. He has better serve stats in the tournament.
Back Alcaraz around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Update: Medvedev held in the first game and broke Alcaraz to lead 2-0. I didn't quite get my entry price but place part stake on Alcaraz after the break. When Medvedev held to lead 3-0, I entered the 2nd part of my stake on Alcaraz. 

Alcaraz held serve and broke Medvedev in the next game. I removed most of my liability. The set went to a tie break. I left my green on Alcaraz. he won a close tie break. 

After the set, I removed the rest of my liability to leave a free bet on Alcaraz. He easily took the second set.

Alcaraz won 7-6, 6-1.

16th March

WTA Challenger, Charleston

Shnaider v Cocciaretto 1.92

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Cocciaretto 1-0 (Mar 2022, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Shnaider.
Shnaider played really well in Indian Wells. She does have a lot of strapping on her left leg. She had a straight sets win in the 1st round. She beat Cristian in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Dodin in the q final. 3 sets win over Yafan Wang in the semis. She won the title in Hua Hin in Feb. Semis in Nanchang. Final in Ningbo.
Cocciaretto beat Rodionova in 2 sets in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round. 2 sets wins over Kessler and Minnen. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Monterrey and Merida. Final in Hobart in Jan 2023.
12 month WTA stats are much better for Shnaider. Stats on all tours are better for her on serve. 3 month stats on all tours are better for Shnaider on serve. I have gone against Cocciaretto in 3 of her 4 matches this week. She is performing above her average level. Good chance of 3 sets. I feel this one is Shnaider's to win or lose.
Lay Cocciaretto around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. lay set 1 winner.

ATP Indian Wells

Sinner 1.85 v Alcaraz

Due to start at 8:30 pm

H2H 4-4. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Sinner in 2. He won on hard in Mar 2023, 3 sets. Alcaraz won on hard in Mar 2023 (Indian Wells), 2 sets. Hard win %'s are close but favour Sinner.
Sinner reached the semis last season. Easy win over Kokkinakis in the 2nd round. He beat Struff in 2 sets in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Shelton in the 4th round. Comfortable win over Lehecka in the q final. He won the title at the Aus Open. 4th round in Shanghai. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open. Title in Toronto and final in Miami.
Alcaraz won the title last season. He needed 3 sets against Arnaldi in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Aliassime in the 3rd round. Comfortable win in the 4th round over Marozsan. Easy win over Zverev in the q final. Q finals at the Aus Open. 4th round in Shanghai. Semis in Beijing and the US Open. Final in Cinci.
12 month stats are better for Sinner on serve and favour Alcaraz on return. 3 month and 1 month stats favour Alcaraz. This should be tight.
Lay Sinner around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner. Tough to pick a winner but Sinner's mental strength this year has been impressive.

15th March

WTA Challenger, Charleston

Cocciaretto 1.45 v Minnen

Due to start at 3 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s in the last 12 months are better for Minnen. They are even in 2024.
Cocciaretto beat Rodionova in 2 sets in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kessler in the q final. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Monterrey and Merida. Final in Hobart in Jan 2023.
Minnen beat Korpatsch in 2 sets in the 1st round. She lost just 3 games to Sasnovich in the 2nd round. In the q final she beat Masarova in 3 sets. 2nd round in Doha as qualifier. Semis in Guangzhou. 3rd round at the US Open. CH final in Aug.
12 month stats on all tours are better for Minnen. WTA stats also favour her. 3 month stats (WTA) also favour Minnen on serve.
Lay Cocciaretto around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.80. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Indian Wells

Gauff 1.36 v Sakkari

Due to start at 1 am

Sakkari 4-3. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Gauff in 2. She won on hard in Aug 2023, 2 sets. Sakkari won on clay in 2022, 2 sets. Only one of their matches went to 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Gauff.
Gauff reached the q finals last season. She was not impressive in the 2nd round and needed a 3rd set tie break against Burel. In the 3rd round she faced 11 bp's but was broken just once by Bronzetti. She lost just 2 games to Mertens in the 4th round. Another straight sets win in the q final over Yuan. Q finals in Dubai, semis at the Aus Open and title in Auckland. Semis in Beijing and titles at the US Open and Cinci.
Sakkari reached the semis last season. She beat Shnaider in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. She needed 3 sets against Parry in the 4th round. 3 sets win over Navarro as slight underdog in the q final. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Tokyo and title in Guadalajara. Final in Washington.
12 month hard stats are better for Gauff. 3 month stats are close on serve but favour Sakkari. 1 month stats are better for Sakkari on serve.
Gauff hit 17 d faults in the last round. 39 d faults in 4 matches. 21 more than Sakkari.
Lay Gauff around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.50. Lay set 1 winner.

14th March

WTA Indian Wells

Potapova v Kostyuk 1.75

Due to start at 6 pm

Potapova 2-0. Most recent June 2023, grass, 3 sets. She won on hard in Mar 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Kostyuk.
Potapova reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Bouzkova in 2 sets in the 2nd round. Easy win over Podoroska in the 3rd round. She beat Paolini in 3 sets in the 4th round. 3rd round in Dubai. Q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego. Q finals in Miami.
Kostyuk lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win in the 1st round and a walkover in the 2nd round. She had a walkover in the 3rd round and beat Pavlyuchenkova in the 4th round. She reached the final in San Diego. Q finals at the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. 3rd round in Beijing.
12 month WTA stats are better for Kostyuk overall. 3 month stats are quite even. 1 month stats are also pretty even but favour Kostyuk on serve. Stats for the tournament are better for Kostyuk. Recent performances are better for Kostyuk. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Kostyuk around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA Indian Wells

Sakkari v Navarro 1.94

Due to start at 1 am

H2H 1-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Sakkari in 2. Navarro won on hard in Sep 2023, 3rd set tie break. Hard win %'s are better for Navarro.
Sakkari reached the semis last season. She beat Shnaider in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. She needed 3 sets against Parry in the 4th round. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Tokyo and title in Guadalajara. Final in Washington.
Navarro reached the 2nd round last season. She needed 3 sets to beat Tsurenko in the 2nd round. She beat Svitolina in 3 sets as underdog in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Sabalenka as huge underdog in the 4th round. Semis in San Diego. 3rd round in Doha. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
12 month stats are fairly close. Slight edge to Sakkari on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Navarro. 3 month stats also favour Sakkari on serve and Navarro on return but this time, predicted holds favour Sakkari. Navarro has a much higher ROI this season. She has raised her level this week.
Lay Sakkari around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Navarro.

13th March

WTA Indian Wells

Mertens v Gauff 1.28

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Gauff 3-0. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, 3 sets. 2 of their 3 matches went to 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Gauff.
Mertens lost to Wang in the 1st round last season. She had an easy win over Xinyu Wang in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Osaka in the 3rd round. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Final in Hobart. Title in Monastir. Q finals in Hong Kong.
Gauff reached the q finals last season. She was not impressive in the 2nd round and needed a 3rd set tie break against Burel. In the 3rd round she faced 11 bp's but was broken just once by Bronzetti. Q finals in Dubai, semis at the Aus Open and title in Auckland. Semis in Beijing and titles at the US Open and Cinci.
12 month and 3 month stats are better for Gauff. 1 month stats are better for Mertens on serve.
Lay Gauff around 1.15 and remove liability around 1.50. Back Gauff above 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Indian Wells

Parry v Sakkari 1.44

Due to start at 10 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Sakkari.
Parry lost in the qual rounds last year. She beat Trevisan in 2 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Fernandez in the 2nd round. She beat Blinkova in 2 sets as underdog in the 3rd round. Q finals in Austin. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
Sakkari reached the semis last season. She beat Shnaider in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Tokyo and title in Guadalajara. Final in Washington.
12 month and 3 month stats are better for Parry on serve.
Parry will be competitive. Sakkari has a new coach (who used to coach Pegula until recently)
Back Sakkari around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.

12th March

WTA Indian Wells

Potapova v Paolini 1.78

Due to start at 6 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Paolini.
Potapova reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Bouzkova in 2 sets in the 2nd round. Easy win over Podoroska in the 3rd round. 3rd round in Dubai. Q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego. Q finals in Miami.
Paolini lost to Maria in the 1st round last year. She beat Maria this week in 2 sets. 3 sets win over Kalinskaya as underdog in the 3rd round. She won the title in Dubai in Feb. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir in Oct. Semis in Zhengzhou. 3rd round in Beijing.
12 month stats are better for Paolini. 3 month stats are pretty even. 1 month stats are a little better on serve for Paolini and a little better on return for Potapova. Recent performances are better for Paolini.
Back Paolini around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA Indian Wells

Pavlyuchenkova 1.76 v Kostyuk

Due to start at 8 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Kostyuk in 3. Pavlyuchenkova won in 2024 when Kostyuk retired in set 1.
Pavlyuchenkova had an easy win in the 2nd round. She reached the semis in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. Q finals in Hong Kong. Semis in Tokyo. 2nd round at the US Open.
Kostyuk lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win in the 1st round and a walkover in the 2nd round. She reached the final in San Diego. Q finals at the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. 3rd round in Beijing.
12 month and 3 month stats are better for Pavlyuchenkova on serve. 1 month stats are close but favour Kostyuk overall.
Good chance of 3 sets. lay Pavlyuchenkova around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10.

11th March

WTA Indian Wells

Yuan 1.56 v Dolehide

Due to start at 6 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Yuan.
Yuan beat Gracheva in 2 sets in the 1st round. She beat Zheng in 2 sets as huge underdog in the 2nd round. She won the title in Austin. Semis in Hobart. Final in Seoul in Oct.
Dolehide lost in the qual rounds last season. She easily beat Bucsa in the 1st round. Beat Azarenka in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Final in Guadalajara.
12 month stats are very even on serve. Return stats and predicted holds are much better for Yuan. 3 month stats are better for Yuan. 1 month stats are better for year.
Back Yuan around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Indian Wells

Blinkova 1.74 v Parry

Due to start at 9 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Blinkova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Pliskova in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Pegula in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Q finals in San Diego. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Semis in Hong Kong.
Parry lost in the qual rounds last year. She beat Trevisan in 2 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Fernandez in the 2nd round. Q finals in Austin. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
12 month hard stats are better for Parry on serve. Return stats favour Blinkova. 3 month stats are stronger for Parry.
Good chance of 3 sets. Some value on Parry. Lay Blinkova around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

10th March

WTA Indian Wells

Kalinskaya 1.73 v Paolini

Due to start at 8:30 pm

Paolini 2-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Paolini in 3. Kalinskaya won on hard in Jan 2024, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are pretty even.
Kalinskaya reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Townsend in 3 sets. She reached the final in Dubai as qualifier. Q finals at the Aus Open. Q finals in Osaka. 2nd round at the US Open.
Paolini lost to Maria in the 1st round last year. She beat Maria this week in 2 sets. She won the title in Dubai in Feb. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir in Oct. Semis in Zhengzhou. 3rd round in Beijing.
12 month and 3 month hard stats are better for Kalinskaya on serve. She hit 10 d faults in the last round.
Lay Kalinskaya around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Indian Wells

Wozniacki 1.66 v Volynets

Due to start at 1 am

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Volynets.
Wozniacki beat Zhu in 2 sets in the 1st round and beat Vekic in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round at the Aus Open. 4th round at the US Open.
Volynets lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Andreeva in 2 sets as huge underdog. She beat Jabeur in 2 sets as underdog. Q finals in Hua Hin. CH semis in Jan and Feb.
Stats for the tournament favour Wozniacki on serve. 3 month stats are better for Volynets. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Wozniacki around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. I give an edge to Wozniacki to win.

9th March

WTA Indian Wells

Yastremska v Raducanu 1.73

Due to start at 7 pm

Raducanu 1-0 (Sep 2022, hard, Yastremska retired just before the end of the match). Hard win %'s are better for Yastremska.
Yastremska reached the 2nd round last year. She reached the semis at the Aus Open.
Raducanu reached the 4th round last year. She played well to beat Masarova in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2nd round at the Aus Open.
12 month stats are better for Yastremska overall. 3 month stats also favour Yastremska. Everything fell into place for Yastremska at the Aus Open. her form since that tournament has been poor. This could be really close.
Back Raducanu around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Indian Wells

Garcia 1.52 v Tomova

Due to start at 8:30 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Tomova.
Garcia reached the 4th round last year. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Beijing and semis in Guadalajara.
Tomova beat Kenin in the 1st round. She reached the 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Hobart as lucky loser. CH title in Aug.
12 month stats are better for Garcia on serve. 3 month stats are better for her on serve.
Garcia's recent form has been a little erratic. Generally she served well.
Back Garcia around 2.10 to 2.20.

8th March

WTA Indian Wells

Ostapenko 1.27 v Kerber

Due to start at 7 pm

Kerber 2-1. Most recent Aug 2021, hard, Kerber in 3. Ostapenko won on clay in 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Ostapenko.
Ostapenko reached the 3rd round last year. 3rd round in Dubai. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Adelaide. Q final in Brisbane. Q finals in Beijing. Q finals at the US Open.
Kerber Beat Martic in 2 sets in the 1st round. She took Collins to 3 sets at the Aus Open. She missed the whole 2023 season to have a baby.
Lay Ostapenko around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Ostapenko around 1.90 to 2.00.

WTA Indian Wells

Maria v Paolini 1.39

Due to start at 11:30 pm

H2H 2-2. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Paolini in 2. Maria won on hard in Mar 2023 at this event, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Paolini.
Maria reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Rus in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached 4 WTA hard 2nd rounds this season. Q finals in Guangzhou in Sep. Semis in Cleveland.
Paolini ,lost to Maria in the 1st round last year. She won the title in Dubai in Feb. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir in Oct. Semis in Zhengzhou. 3rd round in Beijing.
3 month and 1 month stats are stronger for Paolini.
Back Paolini around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

7th March

WTA Indian Wells

Wang 1.74 v Burel

Due to start at 7 pm

Wang 1-0 (Sep 2018, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s favour Burel.
Wang reached the 2nd round last year. Reached the final in Austin last week. Semis in Auckland. Title in Guangzhou. 2nd round of the US Open.
Burel reached the 3rd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round in Brisbane. Semis in Monastir and 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Wang on serve. Return stats favour Burel. 3 month stats also favour Wang and predicted holds favour her.
Back Wang around 2.20 to 2.30.

WTA Indian Wells

Blinkova v Pliskova 1.43

Due to start at 10 pm

Pliskova 2-0. Most recent Sep 2020, clay, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2017, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Pliskova.
Blinkova reached the 2nd round last year. Q finals in San Diego. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Semis in Hong Kong.
Pliskova reached the 4th round last season. 3rd round in Dubai. Semis in Doha. 2nd round of the US Open.
12 month and 3 month stats are better for Pliskova on serve.
Lay Pliskova around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Pliskova above 2.10.

6th March

WTA Indian Wells

Pera 1.91 v Saville

Due to start at 8:30 pm

Saville 1-0 (May 2018, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are close but favour Saville.
Pera reached the 3rd round last year. She has come through the qual rounds. 3rd round at the US Open.
Saville reached the q finals last week. Semis in Hobart. 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month hard stats are pretty even. Slight edge to Saville. 3 month and 1 month stats are fairly even. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Saville around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20.

WTA Indian Wells

Korpatsch v Putintseva 1.41

Due to start at 10 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Putintseva.
Korpatsch reached the 2nd round at the Aus Open. 2nd round at the US Open. Semis in Prague in Aug.
Putintseva lost in the 1st round last season. Q finals in Hua Hin. Q finals in Hobart as qualifier. Semis in Guangzhou. Q finals in Osaka.
12 month WTA stats are stronger for Putintseva. Return stats are close with a slight edge to Korpatsch. 3 month stats favour Putintseva.
Back Putintseva around 1.90 to 2.10.

5th March

WTA Indian Wells qualifying

Pera 1.84 v Osorio

Due to start at 8 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Pera reached the 3rd round last year. IN the last round she needed a 3rd set tie break as 1.01 favourite. 2nd round in Adelaide as lucky loser. 3rd round at the US Open.
Osorio beat Pigossi in 3 sets in the last round. 2nd round in Austin. Q finals in Nanchang.
12 month hard stats are better for Pera on serve. Return stats favour Osorio. 3 month stats are better for Osorio. 1 month stats are quite even but favour Pera.
Lay Osorio around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets.

I favour Pera to win.

WTA Indian Wells qualifying

Hunter 1.55 v Montgomery

Due to start at 10 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Hunter.
Hunter beat Cristian in the previous round. CH final in Feb. 3rd round at the Aus Open as qualifier.
Montgomery lost in the qual rounds. CH q final in Feb as qualifier. 2nd round in Miami in March 2023.
12 month WTA stats are much better for Hunter. Recent performances are better for Hunter.
Back Hunter around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.60.

4th March

Indian Wells starts on Wednesday and runs to the end of next week. There are no main draw matches until Wednesday so I'll look at the qualifying matches today and tomorrow. 

WTA Indian Wells Qualifying

Bejlek 1.94 v Baptiste

Due to start at 9 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Bejlek.
All Bejlek's WTA hard wins in the last year were in qual rounds. She reached an ITF q final in Feb.
Baptiste reached a CH semi last month. She also reached an ITF final in Feb. She reached the 3rd round in Guadalajara in Sep. 2nd round in Washington as qualifier in Aug.
12 month hard stats on all tours are better for Baptiste on serve. 3 month stats favour her on serve.
Lay Bejlek around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets but I give Baptiste the edge.

WTA Indian Wells Qualifying

Dart 1.60 v Semenistaja

Due to start at 10:30 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Dart lost in the qual rounds last year. She reached a CH final in Jan. 2nd round in Guangzhou as qualifier in Sep. ITF title in May.
Semenistaja reached the 2nd round last week and won a CH title in Feb. ITF title and semi in Jan.
12 month WTA stats are better for Dart. 3 month stats also favour her.
Back Dart around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

I favour Dart to win.

3rd March

WTA Austin

Wang 1.61 v Yuan

Due to start at 8 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Yuan.
Wang beat Podoroska in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round. She took the first set from Collins and then Collins retired. She beat Kalinina in 2 sets in the semis. She reached the semis in Auckland. Title in Guangzhou in Sep. 2nd round at the US Open.
Yuan beat Rodionova in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Townsend as underdog in the 2nd round. She beat Yafan Wang in 2 sets as underdog in the q final. Easy win over Schmiedlova in the semi final. She reached the semis in Hobart as qualifier. ITF title and final in Nov. Final in Seoul. CH semi in Aug.
12 month and 3 month hard stats are better for Wang on serve. Stats for the tournament are better for Wang on serve.
Back Wang around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

WTA San Diego

Kostyuk 1.75 v Boulter

Due to start at 11 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Boulter.
Kostyuk Struggled against Li but won in 3 sets in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Preston in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Pavlyuchenkova in the q final. In the semis she was 1-5 down to Pegula but won 12 of the next 14 games. Pegula is in the doubles final today and probably just ran out of energy having not played for a few weeks. Kostyuk reached the q finals of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide and 3rd round in Beijing. 2nd round of this event in Sep. Title in Austin in 2023.
Boulter beat Tsurenko in 2 sets in the 1st round and Haddad Maia in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Vekic in the q final. Easy win over Navarro in the semis. She reached the 2nd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the US Open.
Stats for the tournament are better for Boulter. 3 month and 12 month hard stats also favour Boulter.
Lay Kostyuk around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.95. Lay set 1 winner.

2nd March

WTA Austin

Kalinina v Wang 1.92

Due to start at 8 pm

Wang 1-0 (Feb 2020, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Wang.
Kalinina beat Bejlek. She lost just 3 games to Osorio as underdog. She started her match with Parry really badly on serve but recovered from being a set and a break behind twice. She reached the q finals in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing.
Wang beat Podoroska in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round. She took the first set from Collins and then Collins retired. She reached the semis in Auckland. Title in Guangzhou in Sep. 2nd round at the US Open.
Stats for the tournament are better for Wang on serve. 12 month and 3 month stats favour Wang on serve.
Lay Kalinina around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20.

WTA San Diego

Navarro 1.62 v Boulter

Due to start at 9:30 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Navarro.
Navarro reached the semis last season. She beat Siniakova in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Saville in the q final. 3rd round in Doha. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
Boulter beat Tsurenko in 2 sets in the 1st round and Haddad Maia in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Vekic in the q final. She reached the 2nd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month hard win %'s are better for Boulter on serve. Return stats are very even. 3 month stats favour Boulter. Recent performances are better for Boulter. Decent chance of 3 sets. Navarro has not served well this week. Boulter took a while to find her serve in the q final but ended the match well from the service line.
Lay Navarro around 1.35 to 1.40 and remove liability around 1.90. Lay set 1 winner.

1st March

WTA San Diego

Vekic 1.86 v Boulter

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Boulter 1-0 (Aug 2018, hard, walkover). Hard win %'s are better for Boulter.
Vekic beat Hui in 2 sets in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets against Stakusic in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd round in Dubai. 3rd round in Cinci. Title in Monterrey.
Boulter beat Tsurenko in 2 sets in the 1st round and Haddad Maia in 3 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month hard stats are better for Boulter. 3 month stats favour her. Vekic has not served well this week. Its possible she came into each match under prepared as she took the wins for granted.
Lay Vekic around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets.

WTA Austin

Schmiedlova v Sevastova 1.45

Due to start at 10:30 pm

Sevastova 4-0. Most recent Feb 2019, 2 sets. She won on clay in 2018, 3 sets.
Schmiedlova beat Stearns in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She beat Vickery in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd rounds. She reached 3 WTA 2nd rounds in 2024. 3rd round at the US Open. CH semi in Aug. Q finals in Prague.
Sevastova had not played on hard (before this week) since Jan 2022. She returned to the tour on Nov 2023 and reached a q final in Cluj Napoca in Feb and 2 CH q finals in Nov/Dec. In the 1st round she beat Riera in 2 sets. She beat Stephens in 2 sets as underdog.
Back Sevastova around 2.00 to 2.20.

29th February

WTA Austin

Sevastova v Stephens 1.54

Due to start at 9:30 pm

H2h 2-2. Most recent Sep 2018, hard, Sevastova in 2. Stephens won on hard in Aug 2018, 2 sets. Long term hard win %'s are better for Stephens.
Sevastova had not played on hard (before this week) since Jan 2022. She returned to the tour on Nov 2023 and reached a q final in Cluj Napoca in Feb and 2 CH q finals in Nov/Dec. In the 1st round she beat Riera in 2 sets.
Stephens reached the q finals last season. She beat Martincova in 2 sets in the 1st round. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Cleveland and 3rd rounds in Cinci and Washington.
Back Stephens around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Austin

Schmiedlova v Vickery 1.76

Due to start at 11 pm

Vickery 1-0 (Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Vickery.
Schmiedlova beat Stearns in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She reached 3 WTA 2nd rounds in 2024. 3rd round at the US Open. CH semi in Aug. Q finals in Prague.
Vickery has come through the qual rounds. She beat Marino in 2 sets as slight underdog. ITF semi in Feb. 2nd round at the US Open as qualifier.
12 month WTA stats are very even on serve. Return stats are much better for Vickery. Same pattern in the last 3 months.
Back Vickery around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

28th February

ATP Dubai

Mensik v Fokina 1.70

Due to start at 3:30 pm

Mensik 1-0 (Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Mensik.
Mensik reached the final last week. He beat Coric in a 3rd set tie break as underdog in the 1st round. 2nd round at the Aus Open as qualifier. 3rd round at the US Open.
Fokina reached the 2nd round last season. He needed 3 sets in the 1st round this week. 2nd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the US Open. Semis in Toronto. Q finals in Indian Wells.
12 month hard stats are better for Mensik on serve. 3 month stats are closer on serve and return stats are much better for Fokina. The sets should be close.
Lay Fokina around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Austin

Yuan v Townsend 1.84

Due to start at 6:30 pm

Townsend 1-0 (Oct 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are even.
Yuan beat Rodionova in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached the semis in Hobart as qualifier. ITF title and final in Nov. Final in Seoul. CH semi in Aug.
Townsend lost to Stephens in the 1st round last year. She needed 3 sets in the 1st round this week as 1.12 favourite). 2 ITF titles in Oct. 3rd round in Guadalajara. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Townsend on serve. 3 month stats are better for Yuan. recent performances are better for Yuan.
Lay Townsend around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.20.

27th February

WTA Austin

Rakhimova 1.66 v Wickmayer

Due to start at 4:30 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Rakhimova reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. CH semis in Sep. CH final and q final in Aug.
Wickmayer reached the semis in Seoul. 2nd round of the US Open as lucky loser. Semis in Warsaw in July.
12 month WTA stats are better for Wickmayer. 3 month stats are better for Rakhimova on serve.
Lay Rakhimova around 1.40 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner. Wickmayer has a decent chance to win.

WTA Austin

Volynets 1.48 v Zarazua

Due to start at 8 pm

Volynets 3-2. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Volynets in 2. Zarazua won on hard in Sep 2023, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are even.
Volynets reached the semis last year. She reached a CH semi this month. Q finals in Hua Hin. CH semi in Jan.
Most of Zarazua's hard matches are in ITF's.
12 month WTA stats are better for Volynets.
Back Volynets around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

26th February

WTA Austin

Yuan 1.42 v Rodionova

Due to start at 5 pm

Rodionova 1-0 (Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are a little better for Rodionova.
Yuan reached the semis in Hobart as qualifier. ITF title and final in Nov. Final in Seoul. CH semi in Aug.
Rodionova reached the q finals in Hua Hin in Jan. 3rd round in Brisbane. Most of her matches in the last year were in ITF's.
12 month WTA stats are better for Yuan. 3 month stats also favour her.
Decent chance of 3 sets. Back Yuan around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Austin

Ponchet v Parry 1.53

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Ponchet 2-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Ponchet in 2. Parry won indoors in 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Ponchet.
Ponchet has come through the qual rounds. She had an ITF final and semi final in 2023.
Parry reached the 3rd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
12 month WTA stats are better for Ponchet. 3 month stats are stronger for Parry. Recent performances are better for Parry.
Back Parry around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

25th February

ATP Rio de Janeiro

Baez 1.45 v Navone

Due to start at 8:30 pm

1st meeting. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Navone.
Baez reached the q finals last season. He beat Moutet in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Acosta in the 2nd round. He beat Monteiro in 3 sets in the q final. Straight sets win over Cerundolo in the semis. Q finals last week. Semis in Cordoba. Title in Kitzbuhel in Aug. Q finals in Lyon.
Navone has come through the qual rounds. He beat Coria in 3 sets in the 1st round. Very easy win over Hanfmann in the 2nd round. He beat Fonseca in 3 sets as slight underdog. 2 sets win over Norrie in the semi final. CH final in Jan. CH final in Nov. 2 CH titles in Oct. CH title in Sep. CH title in July.
Stats for the tournament favour Baez on serve. 12 month ATP stats are better for Baez on serve. return stats and predicted holds favour Navone. Norrie struggled with the heat in the semis. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Baez around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Puerto Vallarta Challenger

Preston v Kessler 1.61

Due to start at 11:30 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Preston.
Preston has dropped just 1 set this week. She was underdog in 3 of her 4 matches. ITF title in Nov. ITF title in Oct. ITF title in Sep.
Kessler lost in the qual round. She has not lost a set in the main draw. She was underdog against Liu in the 2nd round. 2nd round at the Aus Open, beating Ferro in the 1st round.
3 month stats on all tours are better for Kessler on serve. Return stats are better for Preston. Recent performances are better for Preston. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Kessler if she gets an early break of serve and remove liability if Preston then gets a bp. Back Kessler around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.70.

24th February

WTA Dubai

Kalinskaya 1.44 v Paolini

Due to start at 2:30 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Kalinskaya in 2. Paolini won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Kalinskaya.
Kalinskaya lost in the qual rounds last year. She made it through the qual rounds this time. She beat Hunter in 2 easy sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bucsa in the 2nd round and a 2 sets win over Ostapenko in the 3rd round. She beat Gauff in 3 sets in the q final. Straight sets win over Swiatek in the semis. Q finals at the Aus Open. CH final in Oct. Q finals in Osaka. Q finals in Austin.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year as qualifier. She beat Haddad Maia in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Sakkari in 2 sets. She beat Fernandez in 2 sets. 4th round at the Aus Open. She had a walkover in the q final when Rybakina pulled out. Straight sets win over Cirstea who almost staged yet another comeback in the 2nd set and had set points. Final in Monastir. Semis in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing. Q final in Cinci.
Stats for the tournament favour Kalinskaya. 12 month stats favour her on serve. If Kalinskaya plays as she has in previous rounds, there won't be a lot that Paolini can do about it
Back Kalinskaya above 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

ATP Rio de Janeiro

Baez 1.68 v Cerundolo

Due to start at 8 pm

H2H 2-2. Most recent July 2022, clay, Cerundolo in 2. Baez won on clay in Nov 2021, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are close.
Baez reached the q finals last season. He beat Moutet in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Acosta in the 2nd round. He beat Monteiro in 3 sets in the q final. Q finals last week. Semis in Cordoba. Title in Kitzbuhel in Aug. Q finals in Lyon.
Cerundolo reached the 2nd round last year. He beat Comesana in 3 sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Ramos in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Lajovic in the q final. Semis in Bastad in July. 4th round at the French Open. Final in Lyon and q finals in Rome in May. Q finals in Barcelona.
12 month clay stats are better for Cerundolo. 3 month stats are stronger for Baez. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Baez around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

23rd February

WTA Dubai

Paolini v Cirstea 1.83

Due to start at 1 pm

Paolini 2-0. Most recent May 2023, clay, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are close but favour Cirstea.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year as qualifier. She beat Haddad Maia in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Sakkari in 2 sets. She beat Fernandez in 2 sets. 4th round at the Aus Open. She had a walkover in the q final when Rybakina pulled out. Final in Monastir. Semis in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing. Q final in Cinci.
Cirstea reached the 2nd round last season. She beat Kenin in 2 close sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. She started really poorly against Vekic in the 3rd round but won in 3. Cirstea saved 6 match points in the 2nd set after she went behind 1-5. Q finals in Abu Dhabi. Q finals at the US Open. Semis in Miami and q finals in Indian Wells.
12 month hard stats are better for Cirstea on serve. 3 month stats also favour her on serve. Recent performances are better for Cirstea. She made a slow start in the last 2 rounds. Good chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Cirstea.
Lay Paolini around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

ATP Rio de Janeiro

Wild v Norrie 1.40

Due to start at 9 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Wild.
Wild beat Tabilo0 in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. He beat Munar in 3 sets as underdog. He won 2 CH titles in Sep. 3rd round at the French Open. CH title in April. CH title in March.
Norrie won the title last season. Easy win over Dellien in the 1st round. Faced just 1 bp and was not broken. Very easy win over Barrios in the 2nd round. Poor loss last week when defending final ranking points in Buenos Aires. 3rd round at the French Open. Semis in Lyon. 4th round in Rome. Form this season has not been great and he has had injury issues. Withdrew from Auckland. There is a chance that his loss last week was to give himself time to be fitter for this week.
12 month stats favour Norrie overall. 3 month stats favour him on serve.
Back Norrie around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

22nd February

WTA Dubai

Paolini v Rybakina 1.21

Due to start at 11:30 am

H2H 1-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Rybakina retired. Rybakina won on clay in 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year as qualifier. She beat Haddad Maia in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Sakkari in 2 sets. She beat Fernandez in 2 sets. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir. Semis in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing. Q final in Cinci.
Rybakina reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Azarenka in the 2nd round. Azarenka retired before set 3. Rybakina struggled against Frech in the 3rd round and was close to losing. She reached the final in Doha last week and won the title in Abu Dhabi the week before that. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open. Final in Miami and title in Indian Wells.
Rybakina has played a lot of tennis in the last 2 weeks. She has been well below her best this week.
12 month hard stats are much better for Rybakina. 3 month stats are also much better. However, her fatigue gives Paolini a chance today.
Lay Rybakina and remove liability at 1.45. Chance of 3 sets.

WTA Dubai

Gauff 1.36 v Kalinskaya

Due to start at 4:30 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Gauff.
Gauff reached the semis last year. She beat Cocciaretto in 2 sets in the 2nd round but was broken 5 times. She struggled against Pliskova in the 3rd round but won in 3. Poor loss last week to Siniakova in 2 sets. Semis at the Aus Open. Title in Auckland. Semis in Beijing. Title at the US Open.
Kalinskaya lost in the qual rounds last year. She made it through the qual rounds this time. She beat Hunter in 2 easy sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bucsa in the 2nd round and a 2 sets win over Ostapenko in the 3rd round. Q finals at the Aus Open. CH final in oct. Q finals in Osaka. Q finals in Austin.
12 month hard stats are quite even on serve. Return stats favour Gauff. 1 month stats are better for Kalinskaya on serve.
Gauff has been well below her best in Feb.
Lay Gauff around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Chance of 3 sets.

21st February

WTA Dubai

Cirstea 1.93 v Vekic

Due to start at 11 am

Cirstea 3-2. Most recent June 2022, grass, Cirstea in 3. Vekic won indoors in Apr 2017, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are close but favour Cirstea.
Cirstea reached the 2nd round last season. She beat Kenin in 2 close sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. Q finals in Abu Dhabi. Q finals at the US Open. Semis in Miami and q finals in Indian Wells.
Vekic beat Wang in 2 sets in the 1st round. She beat Sabalenka in 3 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd round in Cinci. Title in Monterrey in March.
12 month stats are better for Cirstea on serve. Return stats are quite even but favour Vekic. 3 month stats show a similar patter but Vekic is much better on return.
Lay Vekic around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Cirstea had an awful opening set. She was broken in her second service game. She did not have a single break point in the set and was broken again to lose the set 6-2. I had laid Vekic after the first break of serve. I hedged for a small loss when Cirstea was not able to put any pressure on the Vekic serve. I was out before the last game of the set which was a little fortunate. 

Vekic was priced at 1.34 after the set.  As my pre match assessment gave Cirstea the edge, I laid Vekic. She was broken in the first game of set 2.  Vekic immediately broken back.

I stayed with the lay of Vekic and she was broken again 3 games later. Cirstea was serving much better now and I gave her a chance to take the set. She would break again to take the set 6-3.

I removed most of my liability and left my profit on Cirstea for set 3. She took a 3-0 lead and her price dropped to 1.22. I hedged. 

Vekic staged a come back and served for the match at 5-4 but was broken. Cirstea took the set.

Cirstea won 3-6, 6-3, 7-5.

WTA Dubai

Potapova v Zheng 1.51

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Zheng 2-1. Most recent Mar 2023, hard, Potapova in 2. Zheng won on hard in Jan 2023, 3rd set tie break. Zheng won on hard in 2022, 2 tie breaks.
Potapova beat Zhu in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Bronzetti in 2 sets in the 2nd round. Bronzetti was awful on serve. She reached the q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego and Miami in 2023.
Zheng reached the 2nd round last season. She needed 3 sets against Hibino in the 2nd round. Final of the Aus Open. Title in Zhengzhou. Q finals of the US Open.
12 month stats are better for Zheng on serve. return stats are close but favour Potapova. Potapova looked sick during her 1st round match but there were no signs of that in the 2nd round. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Zheng around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.80. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Zheng broke to lead 3-2. I laid her. Potapova immediately broke back. I removed some of the liability after the break back.  Potapova was then broken to 15 in the next game. As I had removed some liability, this allowed me to exit with a tiny profit. Potapova would be broken again to lose the set 6-3. 

As Potapova had been broken in her previous 3 service games, I decided not to lay in set 2. Zheng took the set with a double break.

Zheng won 6-3, 6-2.

20th February

WTA Dubai

Bronzetti v Potapova 1.52

Due to start at 11 am

Potapova 2-0. Most recent Feb 2023, indoor, 3 sets. She won on clay in 2022, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are pretty even.
Bronzetti lost in the qual rounds. She beat Kasatkina in 3 sets in the 1st round. Q finals in Monastir. Q finals in Ningbo and Guangzhou in Sep. 3rd round of the US Open.
Potapova beat Zhu in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached the q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego and Miami in 2023.
12 month hard stats are better for Bronzetti on serve. Return stats and predicated holds favour Potapova. Potapova seemed sick in the last round. She really should have lost but Zhu choked a 4-2 lead in the 3rd set.
Lay Potapova around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.80. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Dubai

Pliskova 1.70 v Krueger

Due to start at 2 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Pliskova reached the q finals last year. She struggled against a rusty Zhang in the 1st round but won in 2 sets. She reached the semis in Doha after winning the indoor title in Cluj the week before. 4th round in Indian Wells.
Krueger beat Garcia in 3 sets in the 1st round. She won the title in Osaka in Sep. Most of her other WTA hard wins were in qual rounds.
12 month hard stats are better for Pliskova on serve. 3 months stats favour Krueger. Pliskova has a title and a semi in the last 2 weeks. her energy levels will be low.
Lay Pliskova around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95. Chance of 3 sets.

19th February

WTA Dubai

Zhu v Potapova 1.77

Due to start at 8:30 am

Potapova 1-0 (July 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Zhu.
Zhu reached the final in Hua Hin. Q finals in Hobart. Final in Osaka in Sep. 3rd round of the US Open. Semis in Cleveland. Semis in Monterrey.
Potapova reached the q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego and Miami in 2023.
12 month hard stats are better for Zhu on serve. Return stats are quite even but favour Potapova. 3 month stats favour Zhu. Recent performances are a little better for Potapova.
Back Potapova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.

WTA Dubai

Kalinina v Svitolina 1.45

Due to start at 3 pm

Svitolina 1-0 (Oct 2011, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Svitolina.
Kalinina reached the 3rd round last year. Q finals in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing in Oct. 3rd round in Dubai in Feb 2023.
Svitolina reached the 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Auckland. 3rd round at the US Open. Q finals in Washington and Monterrey.
12 month hard stats are better for Svitolina.
Back Svitolina around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

18th February

WTA Dubai

Kalinskaya 1.36 v Hunter

Due to start at 10 am

1st meeting. 12 month hard win %'s are even.
Kalinskaya lost in the qual rounds last year. She made it through the qual rounds this time. Q finals at the Aus Open. CH final in oct. Q finals in Osaka. Q finals in Austin.
Hunter has come through the qual rounds. She reached a CH final this month. 3rd round at the Aus Open as qualifier.
3 month and 12 month hard stats are better for Kalinskaya.
Back Kalinskaya around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.

WTA Dubai

Krueger v Garcia 1.80

Due to start at 11:30 am

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Krueger won the title in Osaka in Sep. Most of her other WTA hard wins were in qual rounds.
Garcia lost in the 2nd round last year. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Guadalajara and Cleveland. 4th round in Indian Wells and final in Monterrey.
12 month and 3 month hard stats are better for Garcia on serve.
Back Garcia around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.60.

17th February

WTA Doha

Swiatek 1.53 v Rybakina

Due to start at 3 pm

Rybakina 3-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Swiatek retired in the 3rd set. Rybakina won on hard in Jan and March 2023, 2 sets. Swiatek won indoors in 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Swiatek.
Swiatek won the title last season. Easy wins over Cirstea in the 2nd round and Alexandrova in the 3rd round. Easy win over Azarenka in the q final. She had a walkover in the semis when Pliskova withdrew. 3rd round at the Aus Open. She won the WTA Finals in Nov. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open. Semis in Cinci and Montreal. Title in Warsaw. She reached the final in Dubai.
Rybakina had an easy win in the 2nd round. She beat Fernandez in 2 sets in the q final. Straight sets win over Pavlyuchenkova in the semis. She won the title last week, playing the final just 2 days ago. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month hard stats are pretty even on serve. Return stats are stronger for Swiatek and predicted holds favour her. Rybakina won the title last week so tiredness could be an issue for her today. Stats for the tournament are better for Swiatek.
Back Swiatek around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Decent chance of 3 sets.

ATP Buenos Aires

Diaz Acosta 1.94 v Coria

Due to start at 7 pm

Coria 2-1. Most recent Oct 2023, clay, Coria in 2. Acosta won on clay in Feb. 2023, 2 sets and on clay in 2022, 3rd set tie break. Clay win %'s are better for Acosta.
Acosta reached the 2nd round last year. This week he had straight sets win over Altmaier and Cerundolo as underdog. He beat Lajovic in 2 sets as slight underdog in the q final. Q finals in Cordoba last week. CH title in Nov. Most of his best results are in Challengers.
Coria beat Ofner and Norris in 3 sets as underdog this week. He beat Baez in 2 sets as underdog in the q final. He reached the semis last week. CH final the week before that. Q finals in Bastad.
12 month clay stats are better for Acosta. 3 month stats also favour him. Good chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Acosta
Lay Coria around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

16th February

WTA Doha

Rybakina 1.30 v Pavlyuchenkova

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Pavlyuchenkova 1-0 (June 2021, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina had an easy win in the 2nd round. She beat Fernandez in 2 sets in the q final. She won the title last week, playing the final just 2 days ago. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open.
Pavlyuchenkova beat Kasatkina in 2 sets. In the 2nd set, Kostyuk retired after 3 games. In the 3rd round she beat Vondrousova in 2 sets. 2 sets win over Collins in the q final. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. Q finals in Hong Kong and semis in Tokyo. 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month hard stats are better for Rybakina. Stats for the tournament favour Rybakina.
Lay Rybakina around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back Rybakina around 1.90 to 2.00.

ATP Buenos Aires

Lajovic 1.92 v Diaz Acosta

Due to start at 4:30 pm

1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Acosta.
Lajovic reached the q finals last year. Straight sets win over Fils in the 1st round. He beat Tabilo in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 3rd round in Madrid. Title in Banja Luka in April. Q finals in Santiago.
Acosta reached the 2nd round last year. This week he had straight sets win over Altmaier and Cerundolo as underdog. Q finals in Cordoba last week. CH title in Nov. Most of his best results are in Challengers.
12 month serve stats are quite even but return stats strongly favour Acosta. Predicted holds are much better for Acosta. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Lajovic around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

15th February

WTA Doha

Pavlyuchenkova v Collins 1.81

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Collins 3-0. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, 2 sets. She won indoors in Nov 2021, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2019, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are close in the last year.
Pavlyuchenkova beat Kasatkina in 2 sets. In the 2nd set, Kostyuk retired after 3 games. In the 3rd round she beat Vondrousova in 2 sets. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. Q finals in Hong Kong and semis in Tokyo. 2nd round at the US Open.
Collins reached the 2nd round last season. She has come through the qual rounds. She beat Kudermetova in 2 sets in the 1st round. She beat Bouzkova in the 2nd round in 2 sets but didn't serve well. In the 3rd round she beat Siniakova in 2 sets but was broken 5 times. She lost to Rybakina in 3 sets last week. Semis in San Diego in Sep. 2nd round of the US Open. Q finals in Montreal. Semis in Austin.
12 month hard stats are close with a very slight edge to Collins. 3 month stats are better for Pavlyuchenkova. Stats for the tournament are better for Pavlyuchenkova overall. Collins struggled on serve in the last 2 rounds.
Lay Collins around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10.

WTA Doha

Osaka 1.86 v Pliskova

Due to start at 5 pm

Pliskova 4-2. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Pliskova in 3. She won on hard in 2020, 3 sets. Osaka won in 2019, hard, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are fairly even this week.
Osaka has won 2 of her 5 matches this season. She played well against Garcia in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Martic in the 2nd round. Walkover in the 3rd round when Tsurenko pulled out. She won in straight sets. She did not play last season. In her match with Garcia she was hitting the ball pretty well and with a lot of power. Her first serve % was low.
Pliskova lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. She played the final in Cluj on Sunday. 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Dubai. (Dubai is next week). I thought she would not be interested in this tournament (and would also be tired) but has won 3x 3 setters this week. Having lost the 1st set to Kalinskaya she came through in 3 sets. In the 2nd round she looked really tired after taking the first set from Potapova and went a double break up in set 2. Potapova recovered to take the 2nd set and was twice a break ahead in set 3. Pliskova looked really tired at the end. In the 3rd round she was a set and a break behind against Noskova but recovered to take set 2 and ran away with the deciding set.
3 month stats are better for Osaka on serve. Predicted holds favour her. Pliskova leads on return. I have said this all week but SURELY Pliskova will be too tired to compete. Osaka will be fresher.
Lay Pliskova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20.

14th February

WTA Doha

Tsurenko v Osaka 1.48

Due to start at 2:30 pm

Osaka 2-1. Most recent Jan 2019, hard, Tsurenko in 2. Osaka won on hard in 2018, 2012, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Tsurenko.
Tsurenko came through the 1st round in 2 close sets. She beat Jabeur in the 2nd round. Jabeur started well but fell apart. She reached the 3rd round at the Aus Open. Semis in Monastir in Oct. Q finals in Zhengzhou. 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Indian Wells. Final in Hua Hin.
Osaka has won 2 of her 5 matches this season. She played well against Garcia in the last round. She won in straight sets. She did not play last season. In her match with Garcia she was hitting the ball pretty well and with a lot of power. Her first serve % was low. She came through the 2nd round against Martic in 2 tight sets.
Back Osaka around 2.10 to 2.20. Remove liability at 1.60.

WTA Doha

Azarenka v Ostapenko 1.63

Due to start at 5 pm

Azarenka 4-0. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, 2 sets. She won in Jan 2024, 3 sets. 12 month hard win %'s are better for Ostapenko.
Azarenka reached the 2nd round last season. She needed 3 sets against qualifier Frech in the 1st round. She beat Wang in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Dubai.
Ostapenko reached the 2nd round last year. Very easy win over Kalinina in the 2nd round. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Adelaide. Q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in Beijing and the US Open.
3 month and 12 month stats are better for Ostapenko.
12 month hard stats are better for Azarenka on serve. Return stats are pretty even. 3 month stats are very even.
Lay Ostapenko around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.90. Lay set 1 winner.

13th February

WTA Doha

Navarro v Mertens 1.87

Due to start at 12:00

Navarro 1-0 (Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Navarro.
Navarro beat Paolini in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 3rd round of the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland. 3rd round in Guadalajara. Semis in San Diego.
Mertens lost in the 1st round as qualifier last year. Easy win over Stearns in the 1st round this week. Final in Hobart. Title in Monastir in Oct. Q finals in Hong Kong in Oct.
12 month stats are better for Navarro. 3 month stats are a little better for Mertens on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Mertens around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Doha

Collins 1.54 v Bouzkova

Due to start at 2 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent June 2022, grass, Bouzkova in 3. Collins won on hard in 2018, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Collins.
Collins reached the 2nd round last season. She has come through the qual rounds. She beat Kudermetova in 2 sets in the 1st round. She lost to Rybakina in 3 sets last week. Semis in San Diego in Sep. 2nd round of the US Open. Q finals in Montreal. Semis in Austin.
Bouzkova lost in the qual rounds last year. She beat Kenin in 3 sets in the 1st round. Q finals in Auckland. Final in Nanchang and q finals in Seoul in Oct. 3rd round of the US Open. Q finals in Cinci and 3rd round in Montreal.
12 month hard stats are better for Collins. Predicted holds also favour her. 3 month stats favour Collins.
Back Collins around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

12th February

WTA Doha

Fernandez v Samsonova 1.52

Due to start at 10 am

Samsonova 1-0 (Aug 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are close but favour Fernandez.
Fernandez lost in the qual rounds last year. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in Nanchang. Title in Hong Kong. Q finals in Guadalajara. Q finals in Cleveland. 3rd round in Montreal.
Samsonova reached the semis last week. Final in Beijing in Oct. 3rd round of the US Open. Final in Montreal and semis in Washington in Aug.
12 month hard stats are better for Samsonova on serve. Return stats favour Fernandez. Recent performances are better for Samsonova.
Back Samsonova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60

WTA Doha

Osaka v Garcia 1.84

Dur to start at 12:30 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Garcia in 2. Osaka won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. 12 month hard win %'s are better for Garcia.
Osaka has won 1 of her 4 matches in 2024. She did not play last season.
Garcia reached the q finals last season. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Beijing and semis in Guadalajara.
Since Garcia beat Osaka at the Aus Open she has 2 poor losses as favourite. Osaka served well in her match with Garcia and in the first set against Collins last week before she fell apart in set 2. I'm not convinced how motivated Osaka is on her return to the tour.
Back Garcia around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.

11th February

WTA Abu Dhabi

Rybakina 1.31 v Kasatkina

Due to start at 1 pm

H2H 2-2. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Rybakina in 3rd set tie break. Kasatkina won on hard in Aug 2022, 3 sets. Rybakina won on hard in Jan 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the q finals last season. She came through a tough 3 sets match with Collins in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Bucsa in the q final. She beat Samsonova in 3 sets in the semis. She won the title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open. Semis in Montreal, final in Miami and title in Indian Wells.
Kasatkina reached the q finals last year. She had a tough 3 sets win over Parry in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Krueger in the 2nd round. She lost just 2 games to Cirstea in the q final. She came through against Haddad Maia in a 3rd set tie break. Maia was a break up in the 3rd set twice and had 4 bp's in Kasatkina's last 2 service games. Final in Adelaide. Q final in Brisbane. Semis in Zhengzhou. Q finals in Tokyo. 4th round of the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci and q finals in Montreal.
12 month hard stats are better for Rybakina on serve. Predicted holds also favour her. 3 month stats favour her.
Back Rybakina around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50. Chance of 3 sets.

WTA Cluj

Bogdan v Pliskova 1.51

Due to start at 3:30 pm

Pliskova 3-0. Most recent Feb 2023, hard, 3 sets. Long term hard win %'s are better for Bogdan.
Bogdan beat Parks in 2 sets in the 1st round and Andreeva in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She beat Rus in a 3rd set tie break in the q final. Came through the semi final in 3 sets over Cristian. She reached the q finals last year. She has not played indoors since.
Pliskova did not play indoors last year. She beat Kraus in 2 sets in the 1st round. Her stats were decent but she was not comfortable. Easy win over Osorio in the 2nd round. She lost just 2 games to Errani in the q final. Easy win over Dart in the semis. She has had some good results indoors in previous seasons.
Stats for the tournament favour Pliskova. She has seemed focused this week. Bogdan will have the crowd's support.
Lay Pliskova if she gets an early break of serve. remove liability if Bogdan then gets a bp. Back Pliskova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

10th February

WTA Abu Dhabi

Kasatkina v Haddad Maia 1.91

Due to start at 11 am

Maia 2-0. Most recent Oct 2023, indoor, 2 sets. She won on hard in Feb 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Kasatkina.
Kasatkina reached the q finals last year. She had a tough 3 sets win over Parry in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Krueger in the 2nd round. She lost just 2 games to Cirstea in the q final. Final in Adelaide. Q final in Brisbane. Semis in Zhengzhou. Q finals in Tokyo. 4th round of the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci and q finals in Montreal.
Maia reached the semis last year. She beat Wang in 2 sets in the 1st round. In the 2nd round she needed 3 sets against Linette. She beat Jabeur in 2 sets in the q final. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in San Diego in Sep. 2nd round of the US Open and q finals in Doha.
12 month hard stats are better for Maia. Return stats favour Kasatkina and predicted holds slightly favour her. Tournament stats are better for Maia on serve and Kasatkina on return.
Lay Kasatkina around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets.

WTA Cluj

Bogdan v Cristian 1.95

Due to start at 1 pm

Bogdan 2-0. Most recent Sep 2023, clay, 3rd set tie break. She won on hard in 2011. Indoor win %'s are a little better for Bogdan.
Bogdan beat Parks in 2 sets in the 1st round and Andreeva in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She beat Rus in a 3rd set tie break in the q final. She reached the q finals last year. She has not played indoors since.
Cristian reached the 2nd round last year. Easy win over Bassols in the 1st round. She beat an injured Tauson in the 2nd round. She beat Sevastova in 2 close sets in the q final. 2nd round last week as lucky loser. CH semi in Oct.
Indoor stats in the last year are better for Cristian on serve. Return stats are close but favour Bogdan. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Bogdan. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Cristian around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20.

9th February

WTA Cluj

Cristian 1.74 v Sevastova

Due to start at 1:30 pm

1st meeting. Indoor win %'s are even.
Cristian reached the 2nd round last year. Easy win over Bassols in the 1st round. She beat an injured Tauson in the 2nd round. 2nd round last week as lucky loser. CH semi in Oct.
Sevastova had an easy win over Mitu in the 1st round. In the 2nd round she came through a low quality match with Avanesyan who retired in set 3. She reached 2 CH q finals in Dec. She missed most of the 2022 and 2023 seasons. She was ranked 11th in 2019.
3 month indoor stats are better for Cristian on serve.
Back Cristian around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

WTA Cluj

Rus v Bogdan 1.74

Due to start at 3 pm

Bogdan 3-0. Most recent June 2022, grass, 2 sets. She won indoors in 2019, 2 sets. Long term indoor win %'s are even. Slight lead for Bogdan in the last year.
Rus beat Minnen in 2 sets in the 1st round. She beat Cornet in 3 sets in the 2nd round. She reached a CH 2nd round in Dec.
Bogdan beat Parks in 2 sets in the 1st round and Andreeva in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals last year. She has not played indoors since.
12 month indoor stats favour Bogdan overall. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Bogdan around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

8th February

WTA Abu Dhabi

Rybakina 1.40 v Collins

Due to start at 1 pm

Rybakina 2-1. Most recent Jan 2023, hard, Rybakina in 3. She won on hard in Jan 2023, 3 sets. Collins won on hard in 2021, 2 tie breaks. Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the q finals last season. She won the title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open. Semis in Montreal, final in Miami and title in Indian Wells.
Collins has come through the qual rounds. She beat Osaka in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round of the US Open. Q finals in Montreal. Semis in Austin.
12 month hard stats are better for Rybakina on serve. Her form in the last 2 tournaments was poor. Collins served really well against Osaka.
Lay Rybakina around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

ATP Marseille

Lehecka 1.62 v Rinderknech

Due to start at 6:30 pm

Lehecka 1-0 (Mar 2023, hard, 2 sets). Indoor win %'s are better for Lehecka.
Lehecka beat Goffin in 3 sets in the 1st round. He reached the 2nd round in Vienna and q final in Astana last year.
Rinderknech lost in the 1st round last season. This week he beat Cressy in 3 sets as slight underdog. CH q final last week. He had some excellent indoor results in 2022 but did not find that same form in 2023.
12 month indoor stats are better for Lehecka overall. Serve stats are fairly even. Recent performances are better for Lehecka.
Chance of 3 sets. Back Lehecka around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

7th February

WTA Cluj

Parrizas Diaz v Blinkova 1.50

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Diaz 1-0 (Apr 2023, clay, 2 sets). Indoor win %'s are better for Blinkova.
Diaz beat Siegemund in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached a CH q final in Oct. She reached the q finals in 2022.
Blinkova had an easy win in the 1st round. She reached a CH semi in Dec.
Neither player has played many indoor matches in the last 12 months. (Diaz 4 matches and Blinkova 3). 12 month hard stats are better for Blinkova on serve.
Back Blinkova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.

WTA Cluj

Andreeva 1.56 v Bogdan

Due to start at 5:30 pm

Bogdan 1-0 (Jan 2022, indoor, 2 sets). Indoor win %'s are close but favour Andreeva.
Andreeva has come through the qual rounds. Straight sets win in the 1st round. CH final, semi and q final in Dec. CH final in Oct. 2nd round in Lyon as qualifier.
Bogdan beat Parks in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the q finals last year. She has not played indoors since.
12 month indoor stats on all tours favour Andreeva overall. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Andreeva around 1.35 and remove liability around 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.

6th February

WTA Abu Dhabi

Osaka v Collins 1.76

Due to start at 10:45

Osaka 3-1. Most recent Aug 2022, hard, Collins in 2. Osaka won on hard in 2022, 2019, 2018, 2 sets. Long term hard win %'s are better for Osaka.
Osaka had played 3 matches in 2024 and did not play a match last season.
Collins has come through the qual rounds. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round of the US Open. Q finals in Montreal. Semis in Austin.
Chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Collins. Back Collins around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.65.

WTA Abu Dhabi

Kalinina v Bronzetti 1.89

Due to start at 12:00

Kalinina 1-0 (Feb 2014, clay, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Kalinina reached the q finals in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing.
Bronzetti lost in the qual rounds. Q finals in Monastir. Q finals in Ningbo and Guangzhou. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are quite even but favour Kalinina on serve. 3 month stats favour Bronzetti. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Bronzetti.
Lay Kalinina around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets but I give Bronzetti the edge.

5th February

WTA Abu Dhabi

Kasatkina 1.38 v Parry

Due to start at 12:00

Kasatkina 1-0 (Aug 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Kasatkina
Kasatkina reached the q finals last year. Final in Adelaide. Q final in Brisbane. Semis in Zhengzhou. Q finals in Tokyo. 4th round of the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci and q finals in Montreal.
Parry has come through the qual rounds. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
12 month WTA stats are better for Parry on serve. Stats in the last month also favour Parry. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Kasatkina around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Kasatkina above 2.00.

WTA Cluj

Parks 1.80 v Bogdan

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Bogdan 1-0 (July 2023, grass, 3 sets). Long term indoor win %'s are better for Parks.
Parks lost in the 1st round last season. CH semi in Nov. Title in Lyon in Feb 2023. Poor loss in Linz.
Bogdan reached the q finals last year. She has not played indoors since.
Recent performances on all surfaces are quite even. I give a slight edge to Parks.
Back Parks around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.65.

4th February

WTA Hua Hin

Shnaider 1.97 v Zhu 

Due to start at 9:30 am

Shnaider 1-0 (Oct 2023, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are a little better for Zhu.
Shnaider beat Linette in 3 sets in the 1st round. In the 2nd round, Badosa retired in the 2nd set. She beat Galfi easily in the q final. She played well but Galfi was awful. In the semi final she beat Xinyu Wang as slight underdog. She reached the semis in Nanchang in Oct. Final in Ningbo in Sep.
Zhu won the title last season. She struggled a little in the 1st round but won in straight sets. She was comfortable in the 2nd round against a disappointing Fruhvirtova. Another straight sets win in the q final over Rodionova. In the semis She beat Yafan Wang in straight sets. Q finals in Hobart and 3rd round in Brisbane this month. Final in Osaka. 3rd round at the US Open. Semis in Cleveland. Semis in Monterrey.
12 month WTA stats are better for Shnaider on serve. predicted holds also favour her. Return stats are very even. Stats for the tournament are better for Shnaider on serve. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Zhu.
Good chance of 3 sets. Lay Zhu around 1.60 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner. This should be really close. Slight edge to Shnaider.

WTA Linz

Ostapenko 1.62 v Alexandrova

Due to start at 1 pm

Alexandrova 5-4. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Ostapenko in 2. She won on hard in Sep 2023, 3 sets. Alexandrova won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. indoor win %'s are quite close.
Ostapenko has only played 2 indoor matches in the last year. She has had some excellent results in previous seasons. She made a really slow start in the 2nd round and beat Tauson in a 3rd set tie break. Very easy win over Burrage in the q final. Beat Pavlyuchenkova in 2 sets in the semis.
Alexandrova lost in the 1st round last year. That was her only indoor match in 2023. Easy win over Niemeier in the 2nd round. Straight sets win in the q final over Potapova. In the semi final she came through in a 3rd set tie break against Vekic. Vekic led 5-1 in that tie break. She reached the semis in 2020. her form in 2023 was strong in the first half of the year but she was inconsistent towards the end. She reached the semis in Adelaide this month on hard.
Stats for the tournament are a little better for Alexandrova on serve and favour Ostapenko on return. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Ostapenko.
Lay Ostapenko if she gets an early break of serve. Remove liability if Alexandrova then gets a bp. Back Ostapenko around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.70.

3rd February

WTA Linz

Vekic v Alexandrova 1.52

Due to start at 12:00

Vekic 2-1. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Vekic in 2 tie breaks. Alexandrova won indoors in 2020, 2 sets. Vekic won indoors in 2017, 2 sets. Indoor win %'s are better for Alexandrova.
Vekic reached the q finals last season. She easily beat Yastremska in the 2nd round, losing 2 games. Yastremska was as bad as I had expected her to be in the 1st round. Vekic beat Burel in 2 sets in the q final.
Alexandrova lost in the 1st round last year. That was her only indoor match in 2023. Easy win over Niemeier in the 2nd round. Straight sets win in the q final over Potapova. She reached the semis in 2020. her form in 2023 was strong in the first half of the year but she was inconsistent towards the end. She reached the semis in Adelaide this month on hard.
Stats for the tournament are a little better for Alexandrova on serve and favour Vekic on return. They have not played many indoor matches in the last year but serve stats favour Alexandrova. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Alexandrova. Chance of 3 sets but I favour Alexandrova to win.

WTA Linz

Ostapenko 1.98 v Pavlyuchenkova

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Ostapenko 5-1. Most recent June 2021, grass, Ostapenko in 2. She won on hard in 2019 and on clay in 2019. Pavlyuchenkova won indoors in 2019, 2 sets. Indoor win %'s are even.
Ostapenko has only played 2 indoor matches in the last year. She has had some excellent results in previous seasons. She made a really slow start in the 1st round and beat Tauson in a 3rd set tie break. Very easy win over Burrage in the 2nd round.
Pavlyuchenkova plays very few indoor matches. She lost in the qual rounds last year. This week she beat Trevisan and Boulter in straight sets. She beat Mertens in 2 sets in the q final. She has had some WTA success indoors but not recently. A q final in 2021. Final in Moscow in 2019. Q finals in Linz in 2018 and several other q finals.
Stats for the tournament are better for Pavlyuchenkova on serve. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Ostapenko. Good chance of 3 sets. Ostapenko is most likely to have a slow start (although may be more focused as she is up against a strong opponent). Lay Pavlyuchenkova around 1.60 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

2nd February

WTA Linz

Potapova v Alexandrova 1.57

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Potapova 1-0 (Sep 2021, indoor, Alexandrova retired). Indoor win %'s are better for Potapova.
Potapova won the title last year. She beat Errani in 2 sets in the 1st round but wasn't very convincing. Needed 3 sets against Cocciaretto in the 2nd round. She faced 16 bp's and was broken 4 times. Q finals in Lyon in Feb.
Alexandrova lost in the 1st round last year. That was her only indoor match in 2023. Easy win over Niemeier in the 2nd round. She reached the semis in 2020. her form in 2023 was strong in the first half of the year but was inconsistent towards the end. She reached the semis in Adelaide this month on hard.
Recent performances on all surfaces are a little better for Alexandrova.
Back Alexandrova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liab at 1.60.

WTA Linz

Mertens v Pavlyuchenkova 1.84

Due to start at 5:30 pm

Pavlyuchenkova 2-1. Most recent June 2023, clay, Pavlyuchenkova in 3. She won on grass in 2017, 3 sets. Mertens won on clay in 2017, 2 sets. Indoor win %'s are quite even.
Mertens had not played indoors in the last 12 months. She easily beat Bronzetti in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the final in his tournament in 2020.
Pavlyuchenkova plays very few indoor matches. She lost in the qual rounds last year. This week she beat Trevisan and Boulter in straight sets. She has had some WTA success indoors but not recently. A q final in 2021. Final in Moscow in 2019. Q finals in Linz in 2018 and several other q finals.
Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Pavlyuchenkova. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Lay Mertens around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

1st February

WTA Linz

Potapova 1.65 v Cocciaretto

Due to start at 5:30 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Potapova in 2. Cocciaretto won on hard in 2022. Indoor win %'s are better for Potapova.
Potapova won the title last year. She beat Errani in 2 sets in the 1st round but wasn't very convincing. Q finals in Lyon in Feb.
Cocciaretto had an easy win in the 1st round. She reached 2 CH q finals in Dec.
Fair chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Potapova.
Back Potapova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liab at 1.60.

WTA Linz

Ostapenko 1.78 v Tauson

Due to start at 7 pm

Tauson 1-0 (Sep 2021, indoor, 3 sets). Indoor win %'s are better for Tauson.
Ostapenko has only played 2 indoor matches in the last year. She has had some excellent results in previous seasons.
Tauson has come through the qual rounds. She beat Giorgi in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached the q finals last year as lucky loser. CH q final in Dec.
12 month indoor stats are better for Tauson. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Ostapenko.
Lay Ostapenko if she gets an early break of serve and remove liab if Tauson then gets a bp. Back Ostapenko around 2.30 and remove liab at 1.70.

31st January

WTA Linz

Cristian v Burrage 1.88

Due to start at 11 am

1st meeting. Indoor win %'s are close but favour Burrage.
Cristian lost to Giorgi in the 1st round last season. She lost in the qual rounds this week. She beat Podoroska in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH semi in Oct. ITF title in March.
Burrage has come through the qual rounds. She beat Gracheva in straight sets in the 1st round as underdog. 2nd round in Cluj in Oct. CH q final in Oct. ITF title in April.
12 month indoor stats are better for Burrage overall. Recent performances are close but favour Burrage. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Cristian around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.10.

WTA Linz

Martic v Siniakova 1.83

Due to start at 2 pm

Siniakova 2-0. Most recent May 2022, clay, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2019, 2 sets. Indoor win %'s are better for Martic.
Martic reached the final last season. 2nd round in Lyon in Feb.
Siniakova has won 2 of her last 10 indoor matches.
Indoor stats are not going to help us. 12 month hard stats are better for Martic on serve. She reached the q finals in Adelaide this month. Siniakova reached the 2nd round as qualifier in Adelaide.
Lay Siniakova around 1.55 and remove liab at 2.20.

30th January

WTA Hua Hin

Bai 1.65 v Paquet

Due to start at 8:30 am

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Bai.
Most of Bai's matches were in ITF's in the last year. ITF titles in Nov and Oct. CH q final in Aug. 2 WTA 2nd rounds in 2023.
Paquet has come through the qual rounds. Very little hard court success in the last 12 months. An ITF q final in Jan was her best effort. Recent performances are better for Bai.
Back Bai around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65.

WTA Hua Hin

Korneeva 1.69 v Wang

Due to start at 10 am

1st meeting. Hard win %'s are a little better for Korneeva.
Korneeva has come through the qual rounds. 2nd round of the Aus Open as qualifier. Most of her matches in 2023 were in ITF's. She won the Aus Open junior title in 2023.
Wang reached the 3rd round at the Aus Open. 2nd round at the US Open as qualifier. CH title in Aug.
12 month WTA stats are better for Wang. Return stats and predicted holds are pretty even. 3 month stats slightly favour Korneeva overall. Recent performances are better for Wang. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Korneeva around 1.40 and remove liab at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.

29 January

WTA Linz

Boulter 1.96 v Paolini

Due to start at 2:30 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Mar 2022, hard, Paolini in 2. Boulter won indoors in 2012, 2 sets. Indoor win %'s favour Boulter.
Boulter reached an ITF final in May. 2 WTA 2nd round in 2022 as qualifier. Her best results have come in ITF's.
Paolini had some wins at the BJK Cup in Nov, beating Garcia. Q finals in Lyon in Feb. Final in Cluj in Oct 2022. 2 WTA q finals in 2022, 2021 (including in Linz) and a semi in 2021.
12 month indoor stats on all tours are better for Boulter on serve and favour Paolini on return. Paolini has the better ROI in the last year. WTA hard stats in the last year slightly favour Boulter. More recent performances are better for Paolini who reached the 4th round of the Aus Open.
Decent chance of 3 sets. Lay Boulter around 1.60 and remove liab at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

ATP Montpellier

Murray 1.29 v Paire

Due to start at 6 pm