2024 Trade Archive
5th October
Predictions:
WTA Beijing
Badosa in 3 sets
Muchova in 2 sets
WTA Beijing
Gauff 1.98 v Badosa
Due to start at 8 am
Badosa 3-2. Most recent May 2024, clay, Gauff in 3. Badosa won on clay in Apr 2023, 2 sets. Badosa won on hard in Aug 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are a little better for Gauff.
Gauff reached the semis last season. 2 sets win over Burel in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Boulter in the 3rd round. In the 4th round she beat Osaka who retired after the 2nd set. 3 sets win over Starodubtseva in the q final. 4th round at the US Open. 4th round in Miami. Semis in Indian Wells. Q final in Dubai. Semis at the Aus Open. Title in Auckland.
Badosa beat Tomova in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She beat Sramkova in 2 tight sets in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Pegula in the 4th round. 2 sets win over Zhang in the q final. She reached the q finals at the US Open. Semis in Cinci. Title in Washington. 3rd round at the Aus Open.
12 month and 2024 stats are better for Badosa on serve. Badosa has the better ROI.
Lay Gauff around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10. Decent chance of 3 sets.
WTA Beijing
Muchova 1.71 v Zheng
Due to start at 11 am
H2H 1-1. Most recent July 2024, clay, Zheng in 3. Muchova won on clay in 2022, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Muchova.
Muchova had an easy win over Blinkova in the 1st round. Another easy win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Cristian in the 3rd round. She lost 2 games to Bucsa in the 4th round. 3 sets win over Sabalenka in the q final. She won 4 games in a row to take the 3rd set. She reached the semis of the US Open.
Zheng lost in the 1st round last season. Very easy win in the 2nd round over Rakhimova. 2 sets win over Podoroska in the 3rd round. She started slowly against Anisimova in the 4th round but was the stronger player in sets 2 and 3. another slow start in the q final but beat Andreeva in 3 sets. Q finals of the US Open. Q finals in Dubai. Final of the Aus Open. Title in Zhengzhou in Oct.
12 month and 2024 stats are stronger for Muchova.
Back Muchova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Back Muchova if she loses set 1.
4th October
Predictions:
WTA Beijing
Sabalenka in 3 sets
Zheng in 3 sets
WTA Beijing
Sabalenka 1.53 v Muchova
Due to start at 7:30 am
Muchova 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Muchova in 3. She won on clay in 2023, 3 sets. Sabalenka won on hard in Oct 2019, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are even.
Sabalenka reached the q finals last year. 2 sets win in the 2nd round but she was far from convincing in the 1st set. Easy win in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Keys in the 4th round. Title at the US Open. Title in Cinci. Q finals in Toronto. Semis in Washington. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. Final in Brisbane.
Muchova had an easy win over Blinkova in the 1st round. Another easy win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Cristian in the 3rd round. She lost 2 games to Bucsa in the 4th round. She reached the semis of the US Open.
2024 WTA stats are stronger for Muchova overall. She has only played 12 matches compared to Sabalenka's 39 matches.
This should be very tight. Lay Sabalenka if she breaks first and remove liability if Muchova then gets a bp. Back Sabalenka around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Beijing
Andreeva v Zheng 1.74
Due to start at 9 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Zheng.
Andreeva reached the 3rd round last year. 3 sets win over Begu in the 2nd round. She struggled against Vekic in the 3rd round. She easily beat a poor Linette in the 4th round. Her own serve was average at best. 2nd round of the US Open. Q finals in Cinci. 4th round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Brisbane.
Zheng lost in the 1st round last season. Very easy win in the 2nd round over Rakhimova. 2 sets win over Podoroska in the 3rd round. She started slowly against Anisimova in the 4th round but was the stronger player in sets 2 and 3. Q finals of the US Open. Q finals in Dubai. Final of the Aus Open. Title in Zhengzhou in Oct.
12 month stats favour Zheng overall. 2024 stats are much more even. Slight edge to Andreeva overall.
Andreeva has not been impressive so far. Stats for the tournament are better for Zheng.
Back Zheng around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
3rd October
Predictions:
WTA Beijing
Badosa in 2 sets
Gauff in 2 sets
ATP Shanghai
Bellucci 1.45 v Harris
Due to start at 10 am
Harris 2-0. Most recent March 2024, indoor, 3 sets. He won on hard in Feb 2020, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Bellucci.
Bellucci has come through the qual rounds. 2nd round at the US Open. CH final in Aug. Q finals in Atlanta.
Harris lost in the qual rounds. Most of his hard matches in 2024 were in ATP or Challenger qual rounds. He reached a CH q final in Feb.
2024 ATP stats are stronger for Bellucci on serve. Return stats are close but favour Harris.
Back Bellucci around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
ATP Shanghai
Zhang 1.76 v Bergs
Due to start at 11:30 am
H2H 1-1. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Bergs in 2. Zhang won on hard in Aug 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Bergs.
Zhang reached the 4th round last year. Final in Hangzhou in Sep. 2nd round of the Aus Open. 3 ATP 2nd rounds in 2024.
Bergs reached the 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Winston Salem.
12 month and 2024 stats are stronger for Zhang on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Zhang around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
2nd October
Predictions:
ATP Beijing
Sinner in 3 sets
WTA Beijing
Linette v Andreeva 1.29
Due to start at 9 am
H2H 1-1. Most recent July 2024, clay, Linette in 2. Andreeva won on clay in April 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Andreeva.
Linette reached the 3rd round last season. She needed 3 sets against Uchijima in the 2nd round.2 sets win over Paolini in the 3rd round. 6 WTA 2nd rounds in 2024.
Andreeva reached the 3rd round last year. 3 sets win over Begu in the 2nd round. She struggled against Vekic in the 3rd round. 2nd round of the US Open. Q finals in Cinci. 4th round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Brisbane.
12 month and 2024 stats are stronger for Andreeva. She will need to serve better than she did in the previous round.
Lay Andreeva around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.55. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Beijing
Anisimova v Zheng 1.34
Due to start at 1 pm
Zheng 1-0 (Aug 2024, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are even.
Anisimova needed 3 sets in the 2nd round win over Osorio. She was 0-4 down in the 3rd set. 2 sets win over Kasatkina in the 3rd round. She reached the final in Toronto. Q finals in Washington. 4th round of the Aus Open.
Zheng lost in the 1st round last season. Very easy win in the 2nd round over Rakhimova. 2 sets win over Podoroska in the 3rd round. Q finals of the US Open. Q finals in Dubai. Final of the Aus Open. Title in Zhengzhou in Oct.
12 month and 2024 stats are better for Zheng on serve and favour Anisimova on return. Zheng has not been tested so far. I think she will be today.
Lay Zheng around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Zheng around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.
1st October
Predictions:
ATP Tokyo
Humbert in 3 sets
ATP Beijing
Alcaraz in 3 sets
Sinner in 2 sets
WTA Beijing
Starodubtseva v Kalinskaya 1.57
Due to start at 9 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Starodubtseva has come through the qualifying rounds. She beat Siegemund in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Siniakova as underdog. Easy win over Avanesyan in the 3rd round. Q finals in Monastir in Sep.
Kalinskaya lost in the qual rounds last season. 3rd set tie break win over Baptiste in the 2nd round. She struggled on serve. She beat an injured Stearns in the 3rd round. Stearns retired. 3rd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Toronto. 4th round in Miami. Final in Dubai. Q finals of the Aus Open.
12 month hard stats are better for Kalinskaya on serve. Stats in 2024 also favour her on serve but strongly favour Starodubtseva on return. Starodubtseva has the better ROI in her last 10 matches. Stats for the tournament favour Starodubtseva.
Lay Kalinskaya around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.80.
WTA Beijing
Osaka v Gauff 1.58
Due to start at 10:30 am
H2H 2-2. Most recent Aug 2022, hard, Gauff in 2. Osaka won on hard in Aug 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Gauff.
Osaka had a 2 sets win in the 1st round over Bronzetti. 3 sets win over Putintseva in the 2nd round. Easy win over Volynets in the 3rd round. She reached the 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Miami. Q finals in Doha.
Gauff reached the semis last season. 2 sets win over Burel in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Boulter in the 3rd round. 4th round at the US Open. 4th round in Miami. Semis in Indian Wells. Q final in Dubai. Semis at the Aus Open. Title in Auckland.
12 month stats and stats in 2024 favour Osaka on serve. Return stats strongly favour Gauff. Very good chance of 3 sets.
Back Gauff around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.
30th September
Predictions:
ATP Tokyo
Humbert in 3 sets
Fils in 3 sets
WTA Beijing
Andreeva 1.58 v Vekic
Due to start at 9 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Andreeva.
Andreeva reached the 3rd round last year. 3 sets win over Begu in the 2nd round. 2nd round of the US Open. Q finals in Cinci. 4th round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Brisbane.
Vekic lost in the 1st round last season. 3 sets win over Golubic in the 2nd round. 4th round of the US Open. Q finals in San Diego.
12 month stats are stronger for Andreeva. 2024 stats also favour her overall. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Andreeva around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
Andreeva to win in 3 sets.
WTA Beijing
Kasatkina 1.81 v Anisimova
Due to start at 10:30 am
Anisimova 4-0. Most recent Aug 2024, hard, 2 sets. All their matches were on hard and she won in straight sets. Hard win %'s are better for Anisimova.
Kasatkina reached the 2nd round last year. Easy win over Fett in the 2nd round. Final in Seoul. 2nd round of the US Open. 4th round in Indian Wells. Final in Abu Dhabi. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Final in Adelaide. Q finals in Brisbane. Semis in Zhengzhou in Oct.
Anisimova needed 3 sets in the 2nd round win over Osorio. She was 0-4 down in the 3rd set. She reached the final in Toronto. Q finals in Washington. 4th round of the Aus Open.
12 month and 2024 stats are better for Anisimova on serve. She has the better ROI in her last 10 hard matches. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Kasatkina around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10.
Anisimova to win in 3 sets.
29th September
WTA Beijing
Kudermetova v Pegula 1.34
Due to start at 6 am
Kudermetova 2-0. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, 2 sets. She won on clay in May 2023, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Pegula.
Kudermetova lost in the 1st round last year. 3 sets win over Wang in the 2nd round. Semis in Seoul.
Pegula reached the 3rd round last season. 2 sets win over Parry in the 2nd round. She needed a tie break in the 2nd set. Reached the US Open final. Final in Cinci. Title in Toronto. Q finals in Miami. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide.
2024 stats are stronger for Pegula. Kudermetova's form in the last year has been inconsistent but she seems to be improving recently.
Lay Pegula if she gets an early break of serve and remove liability if Kudermetova then gets a bp. Back Pegula around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
WTA Beijing
Zhang v Minnen 1.73
Due to start at 7:30 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Minnen.
Zhang broke her 24 match losing streak with a win over Kessler in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Navarro as huge underdog in the 2nd round. Her more recent performances have shown improvement.
Minnen had a straight sets win over Andreeva as slight underdog in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Potapova as underdog in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Miami. CH semi in March. 4 other WTA 2nd rounds in 2024.
Stats don't mean much for this one. Zhang played really well in the last round.
Lay Minnen around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95. Some value on Zhang as slight underdog.
28th September
WTA Beijing
Krueger 1.60 v Sun
Due to start at 7:30 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Sun.
Krueger lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. 3 sets win over Yafan Wang in the 1st round. 3rd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Toronto. 4 WTA 2nd rounds in 2024.
Sun reached the final in Monterrey. 3 WTA 2nd rounds in 2024.
12 month WTA stats are better for Sun on serve. 2024 stats also favour Si on serve but strongly favour Krueger on return. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Sun has not played since retired from the US Open in Aug.
Back Krueger around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
ATP Tokyo
Nishioka v Rune 1.65
Due to start at 10 am
H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Rune in 4. Nishioka won on hard in Jan 2023, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Rune.
Nishioka lost in the 1st round last season. 3rd set tie break win over Aliassime in the 1st round. Title in Atlanta in July.
Rune needed 3 sets against Tabilo in the 1st round. He reached the semis in Cinci. 3rd round in Montreal. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in Acapulco. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Final in Brisbane.
12 month and 2024 stats are stronger for Rune on serve. Predicted holds also favour him.
Back Rune around 2.00 to 2.20. Remove liability at 1.55.
27th September
WTA Beijing
Kudermetova 2.00 v Wang 2.00
Due to start at 6 am
Wang 1-0 (March 2024, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Wang.
Kudermetova lost in the 1st round last year. Semis in Seoul.
Wang reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win in the 1st round. 2nd round at the US Open. 3rd round in Miami. Semis in Hua Hin in Feb. 7 other WTA 2nd rounds in 2024.
12 month hard stats are better for Wang on serve. Return stats are a little better for Kudermetova. Stats in 2024 are very even.
Lay Kudermetova around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10. Fair chance of 3 sets.
WTA Beijing
Fernandez 1.65 v Stearns
Due to start at 8:30 am
H2H 1-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Fernandez in 2. Stearns won on clay in May 2023, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Fernandez.
Fernandez lost in the qual rounds last year. Q finals in Cinci. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in Nanchang and title in Hong Kong in Oct 2023.
Stearns lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. 3rd round at the US Open. Q finals in Cleveland. Q finals in Toronto.
12 month stats favour Fernandez on serve. Return stats are pretty even. In 2024, Fernandez leads on serve but Stearns leads on return. Good chance of 3 sets. 3 month stats favour Stearns.
Lay Fernandez around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.85.
26th September
ATP Tokyo
Tabilo v Rune 1.60
Due to start at 7:30 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Tabilo.
Tabilo reached the 3rd round in Montreal. Title in Auckland in Jan.
Rune reached the semis in Cinci. 3rd round in Montreal. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in Acapulco. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Final in Brisbane.
12 month hard stats are better for Tabilo. 2024 stats also favour him overall. 3 month stats favour Rune overall. Tabilo won 2 of his last 10 on all surfaces. Rune had a poor loss last week but it was only an ATO 250 event.
Back Rune around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Beijing
Wang v Krueger 1.74
Due to start at 12:00
Krueger 109 (June 2024, grass, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Wang.
Wang reached the 4th round of the US Open. CH semi in March. Q finals in Austin. Semis in Hua Hin1 in Feb. 3rd round of the Aus Open.
Krueger lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. 3rd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Toronto. 4 WTA 2nd rounds in 2024.
12 month WTA stats are better for Wang on serve. Return stats are even. Stats in 2024 are stronger for Krueger. 3 month stats favour Wang.
Very good chance of 3 sets. Lay Krueger around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00.
I give Wang a slight edge to win.
25th September
WTA Beijing
Volynets 1.54 v Galfi
Due to start at 7 am
Galfi 1-0 (June 2022, grass, 3rd set tie break). Hard win %'s are better for Volynets.
Volynets reached the 3rd round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Hua Hin in Feb. 2 CH semis in 2024.
Galfi has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Hua Hin in Feb.
12 month WTA stats are better for Galfi on serve. Volynets is much stronger on return. Recent form is better for Volynets.
Lay Volynets around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.85.
WTA Beijing
Gracheva v Baptiste 1.87
Due to start at 9 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Baptiste.
Gracheva reached the 2nd round last year. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland. 3 other WTA 2nd rounds.
Baptiste has come through the qualifying rounds. CH semi in Feb. 2nd round in Seoul.
12 month and 2024 stats are stronger for Baptiste.
Lay Gracheva around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Back Baptiste if she loses set 1.
24th September
Predictions:
ATP Chengdu
Shang in 3 sets
ATP Hangzhou
Cilic in 3 sets
ATP Hangzhou
Cilic v Zhang 1.76
Due to start at 12:30pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Cilic.
Cilic has been trying to come back from injury. 3 sets win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Nishioka as underdog in the 2nd round. 3rd set tie break win over Uchiyama in the q final. 2 tight sets win over Nakashima. CH q final in Sep. He has been as high as 3 in the world in 2018.
Zhang had a 3 sets win as strong favourite in the 1st round. Easy win as underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Baena in the q final. 2 tight sets win over Bu in the semis. He reached the 2nd round in Cinci. 2nd round in Indian Wells and Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. 2nd round in Tokyo in Oct.
After a shaky first round win over Svajda who broke him 4 times, Cilic has found his serve. Broken twice in the last 3 matches and was not broken at all in the semi final.
2024 stats favour Cilic overall.
Lay Zhang around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.00. Good chance of 3 sets and/or tie breaks.
Antofagasta Challenger
Collarini v Meligeni Alves 1.66
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Alves 2-1. Most recent April 2022, clay, Collarini in 3. Alves won on clay in March 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are close but favour Alves.
Collarini lost in the 1st round last year. CH title and semi in Sep. CH semi in July and CH title in June. CH title in April.
Alves reached a CH q final in Aug. CH q final in May and March. 2nd round in Rio as qualifier.
12 month CH stats are close but favour Collarini overall. Same pattern in the 2024 stats.
Fair chance of 3 sets. Lay Alves around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00.
23rd September
Predictions:
ATP Chengdu
Kachmazov in 3 sets
Shang in 2 sets
ATP Hangzhou
Nakashima in 3 sets
Bu in 3 sets
ATP Chengdu
Musetti 1.28 v Kachmazov
Due to start at 10 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are a little better for Kachmazov.
Musetti beat O'Connell in a 3rd set tie break in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Mannarino in the q final. He reached the 3rd round at the US Open. 4th round in Miami. 2nd round at the Aus Open. 2nd round in Beijing.
Kachmazov lost in the 1st round as qualifier last year. This year, he made it through qualifying again. 2 sets win as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win as underdog over Daniel in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Jarry in the q final. Almost all his matches in 2024 were in Challengers. He reached a CH semi and 3 q finals.
Kachmazov has served well. He was broken twice in 5 matches this week. The sets are going to be tight.
Hard stats in 2024 are better for Kachmazov though this is his only ATP tournament.
Lay Musetti and remove liability at 1.55. Chance of 3 sets. Some value on Kachmazov.
ATP Chengdu
Hanfmann v Shang 1.34
Due to start at 12:00
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Shang.
Hanfmann won in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Perricard as slight underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Martinez in the q final. He reached the 3rd round in Miami. 2 ATP 2nd rounds in 2024.
Shang beat Nishikori in 2 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Safiullin in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Bublik in the q final. He reached the 3rd round at the US Open. 3rd round in Winston Salem. Semis in Atlanta. 3rd round of the Aus Open. Semis in Hong Kong.
12 month ATP stats are quite close but favour Shang. Stats in 2024 are stronger for Shang.
Back Shang around 1.80 to 1.90 and remove liability at 1.45.
22nd September
WTA Seoul
Kasatkina v Haddad Maia 1.84
Due to start at 8 am
Maia 2-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Kasatkina in 3rd set tie break. Maia won indoors in Oct 2023, 2 sets. Maia won on hard in Feb 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Kasatkina beat Baptiste in 2 sets in the 2nd round. In the q final, Raducanu retired after set 1. 2 sets win over Shnaider in the semis. She reached the 2nd round of the US Open. 4th round in Indian Wells. Final in Abu Dhabi. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Final in Adelaide. Q finals in Brisbane. Semis in Zhengzhou in Oct.
Maia had a 2 sets win over Tomljanovic in the 2nd round. Easy win over P Kudermetova in the q final. 2 sets win over V Kudermetova in the semi final. She reached the q finals of the US Open. Final in Cleveland. Semis in Abu Dhabi in Feb. 3rd round at the Aus Open.
12 month hard stats are better for Maia on serve. Kasatkina leads on return. Same pattern in 2024.
Lay Kasatkina around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Back Maia if she loses set 1.
WTA Hua Hin
Siegemund 1.81 v Sramkova
Due to start at 10 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Siegemund.
Siegemund came through a messy match with Parks in the 1st round. 3rd set tie break win over Xiyu Wang s underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Masarova in the q final. Easy win in the semis over Hartono. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide.
Sramkova had a 3 sets win as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Linette as huge underdog in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Fett in the q final. 2 sets win over Zidansek in the semi final. She reached the final in Monastir last week. 2nd round in Indian Wells.
Sramkova has the better ROI in 2024. 12 month WTA stats favour Sramkova on serve. 2024 stats favour her on serve. Siegemund leads on return and predicted holds favour Siegemund.
Good chance of 3 sets. Lay Siegemund around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
21st September
Yesterday's suggested trades were both in Seoul. Those were not played yesterday so can be used today.
WTA Hua Hin
Sramkova 1.65 v Zidansek
Due to start at 10 am
Zidansek 3-0. Most recent Sep 2023, clay, 3 sets. She won on hard in Aug 2023, 3 sets. She won on clay in 2016, 3 sets. She lost the 1st set every time. Hard win %'s are better for Sramkova.
Sramkova had a 3 sets win as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Linette as huge underdog in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Fett in the q final. She reached the final in Monastir last week. 2nd round in Indian Wells.
Zidansek reached the q finals in Hua Hin in Feb 2023. She had played 6 matches on hard this season and lost them all. 3 sets win in the 1st round as underdog. Another 3 sets win as huge underdog in the 2nd round. 3rd set tie break win over Podoroska as underdog in the q final.
12 month and 2024 stats are stronger for Sramkova. She reached the final last week so may be tired. Zidansek has raised her level this week. She did not serve well in the q final.
Back Sramkova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Hua Hin
Hartono v Siegemund 1.45
Due to start at 11:30 am
1st meeting. 12 month hard win %'s are better for Siegemund. They are even in 2024.
Hartono has come through the qual rounds. Very easy win in the 1st round as underdog. 3 sets win over Gao as underdog in a match badly delayed by rain. 3 sets win as slight underdog in the q final. CH semi in Feb. Lost in the 1st round of Hua Hin 1 in Jan as qualifier.
Siegemund came through a messy match with Parks in the 1st round. 3rd set tie break win over Xiyu Wang s underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Masarova in the q final. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide.
12 month stats are better for Siegemund overall. 2024 stats are better for Hartono. Most of her matches were in qual rounds.
Back Siegemund around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
20th September
WTA Seoul
Kasatkina v Raducanu 1.83
Due to start at 9 am
Kasatkina 2-0. Most recent June 2024, grass, 2 sets. She won indoors in Oct 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are even.
Kasatkina beat Baptiste in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round of the US Open. 4th round in Indian Wells. Final in Abu Dhabi. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Final in Adelaide. Q finals in Brisbane. Semis in Zhengzhou in Oct.
Raducanu beat Stearns in 2 tie breaks in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round over Yuan. She had an MTO for a foot issue in the 1st set. She reached the q finals in Washington. 3rd round in Indian Wells. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
12 month and 2024 stats are stronger for Raducanu on serve and favour Kasatkina on return.
If Raducanu's foot injury isn't an issue, She has a great chance. Back Raducanu around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Seoul
Shnaider Kostyuk 1.79
Due to start at 10:30 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Shnaider had a straight sets win over Zhao in the 2nd round. She reached the 4th round at the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci. Semis in Toronto. Title in Hua Hin1 in Feb. Semis in Nanchang in Oct.
Kostyuk had an easy win over Rus in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Watson in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Cincinnati. 3rd round in Toronto. Semis in Indian Wells. Final in San Diego. Q finals of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. She reached the 3rd round in Beijing last year.
12 month and 2024 stats are better for Shnaider on serve and favour Kostyuk on return.
Lay Kostyuk around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10.
19th September
WTA Hua Hin
Wang 1.40 v Masarova
Due to start at 6:30 am
Masarova 1-0 (Jan 2017, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Wang.
Wang had a straight sets win over Sherif in the 1st round. She reached the 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Miami. Semis in Hua Hin1 in Feb. 6 other WTA 2nd rounds in 2024.
Masarova beat Bondar as slight favourite in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached a CH q final in March. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
12 month WTA stats are a little better for Wang overall. 2024 stats are better for Wang.
Back Wang around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.45.
WTA Seoul
Raducanu 1.37 v Yuan
Due to start at 9 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Yuan.
Raducanu beat Stearns in 2 tie breaks in the 1st round. She reached the q finals in Washington. 3rd round in Indian Wells. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
Yuan beat Ruse in 3 sets as slight underdog. She reached the q finals in Monterrey. Q finals in Indian Wells. Title in Austin. Semis in Hobart.
12 month and 2024 stats are better for Yuan. She has the better ROI on hard.
Lay Raducanu around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Lay set 1 winner. Value is on Yuan.
18th September
WTA Hua Hin
Siegemund v Wang 1.43
Due to start at 5 am
Siegemund 1-0 (May 2022, clay, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Siegemund.
Siegemund came through a messy match with Parks in the 1st round. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide.
Hard stats in 2024 are stronger for Siegemund. She has the better ROI on hard.
Wang beat Golubic in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the final in Austin. Semis in Auckland. 3 WTA 2nd rounds in 2024 including in Hua Hin in Jan.
12 month and 2024 stats are better for Wang on serve. Return stats are better for Siegemund. Predicted holds favour Siegemund. Recent performances are better for Wang.
Back Wang around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.
WTA Hua Hin
Podoroska v Siniakova 1.40
Due to start at 8 am
Podoroska 2-0. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, 2 sets. She won on hard in Sep 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are a little better for Siniakova.
Podoroska had a very easy win in the 1st round. She won a CH title in Aug. 2nd round in Miami as qualifier. 3rd round in Indian Wells. 2nd round at the Aus Open.
Siniakova had a 2 sets win in the 1st round. She reached the semis in Cleveland. 3rd round in Doha. In October she reached finals in Nanchang and Hong Kong.
2024 stats are better for Podoroska on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Siniakova. Recent performances are better for Siniakova. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Siniakova around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Siniakova around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
17th September
WTA Seoul
Stearns v Raducanu 1.54
Due to start at 7 am
Raducanu 1-0 (July 2024, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are close but favour Raducanu.
Stearns reached the 3rd round at the US Open. Q finals in Cleveland. Q finals in Toronto.
Raducanu reached the q finals in Washington. 3rd round in Indian Wells. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
12 month and 2024 WTA stats are better for Raducanu on serve and favour Stearns on return. Stearns has the better ROI on hard in 2024. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Raducanu around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Seoul
Tomljanovic 1.65 v Jang
Due to start at 8:30 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Jang.
Tomljanovic reached the 2nd round of the US Open. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
Jang plays mostly ITF's. She reached the 2nd round last season. Her 5 WTA hard matches since then were all in qual rounds.
Tomljanovic is still trying to regain form after injury. She shows decent form in the grass season, reaching the final in Birmingham. She is hard to predict. Jang will have the crowd's support.
Back Tomljanovic around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.50.
16th September
I have gone for matches that aren't crazily early!
WTA Seoul
Rus v Kostyuk 1.26
Due to start at 8:30 am
H2H 1-1. Most recent Sep 2019, clay, Kostyuk in 3. Rus won on hard in Sep 2018, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Kostyuk.
Rus reached the 2nd round of the US Open. Q finals in Cleveland. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Hobart.
Kostyuk reached the 3rd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Cincinnati. 3rd round in Toronto. Semis in Indian Wells. Final in San Diego. Q finals of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. She reached the 3rd round in Beijing last year.
12 month and 2024 stats are stronger for Kostyuk.
Back Kostyuk around 1.70 to 1.85. Remove liability at 1.40.
WTA Hua Hin
Rodionova v Siniakova 1.21
Due to start at 10:30 am
Siniakova 1-0 (Oct 2014, indoor, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Siniakova.
Rodionova reached an ITF final in May. Q finals in Hua Hin in Feb. 3rd round in Brisbane.
Siniakova reached the semis in Cleveland. 3rd round in Doha. In October she reached finals in Nanchang and Hong Kong.
12 month WTA stats are a little better for Rodionova on serve. Return stats and predicted holds are much better for Siniakova. 2024 stats are even on serve and favour Siniakova on return.
Rodionova can be a tough opponent on her day. Lay Siniakova and remove liability at 1.40. Back Siniakova around 1.75 to 1.85 and remove liability at 1.40.
15th September
Predictions:
WTA Guadalajara
Frech in 3 sets
WTA Monastir
Kartal in 3 sets
Ljubljana Challenger
Teichmann v Parrizas Diaz 1.80
Due to start at 11 am
Teichmann 2-1. Most recent Sep 2024, clay, Diaz in 3. Teichmann won on clay in July 2024, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Teichmann.
Teichmann needed a 3rd set tie break as strong favourite in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round as slight underdog. 3rd set tie break win in the q final as favourite. 3 sets win over Jones in the semis. Not sure what happened to Jones but she did not hold serve in the 3rd set. CH q final last week. 2nd round in Palermo as qualifier. ITF title in May.
Diaz had a 2 sets win in the 1st round. Very easy win over Oz in the 2nd round. Another 2 sets win in the q final. She beat Danilovic in the semis in 2 sets. Danilovic had an MTO after set 1. CH semi in Sep. ITF title in Aug. CH semi in July.
12 month CH stats are better for Teichmann on serve. Return stats favour Diaz. Diaz has not lost a set and has better stats this week. Teichmann needed 3 sets in 3 of her 4 matches.
Back Diaz around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Very good chance of 3 sets.
WTA Monastir
Kartal 1.53 v Sramkova
Due to start at 4 pm
Sramkova 1-0 (Feb 2023, indoor, 3rd set tie break). Hard win %'s are better for Kartal.
Kartal has come through the qual rounds. She beat Cristian in 3 tight sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Hontama in the 2nd round. 2 sets win in the q finals. In the semis, Lys retired in set 1. 2 ITF titles in Aug. 2 ITF titles in May.
Sramkova had a 3 sets win as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win as underdog in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Tormo as underdog in the q final. 2 sets win over Bronzetti in the semis as underdog. She reached the 2nd round in Indian Wells as qualifier.
12 month and 2024 WTA stats are stronger for Kartal. Sramkova has raised her level this week and has faced tougher opponents. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Kartal around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.80. Lay set 1 winner.
14th September
Predictions:
WTA Guadalajara
Gadecki in 3 sets
Frech in 3 sets
WTA Monastir
Bronzetti in 3 sets
Kartal in 3 sets
WTA Monastir
Bronzetti 1.36 v Sramkova
Due to start at 4 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Sramkova.
Bronzetti reached the q finals last year. Easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Li in the 2nd round. Easy win in the q final. 2nd round at the US Open. 3rd round in Indian Wells.
Sramkova had a 3 sets win as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win as underdog in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Tormo as underdog in the q final. She reached the 2nd round in Indian Wells as qualifier.
12 month WTA stats are better for Bronzetti on serve and favour Sramkova on return. Stats in 2024 are quite even with a slight edge to Sramkova.
Chance of 3 sets. Back Bronzetti around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.
WTA Monastir
Lys v Kartal 1.81
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Kartal 1-0 (Feb 2022, indoor, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Kartal.
Lys beat Tsurenko in 2 sets as favourite. She beat defending champion Mertens in a 3rd set tie break. 2 sets win in the q final. She lost in the 1st round of the US Open as qualifier. 8 of her 9 matches in 2024 were in qual rounds.
Kartal has come through the qual rounds. She beat Cristian in 3 tight sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Hontama in the 2nd round. 2 sets win in the q finals. 2 ITF titles in Aug. 2 ITF titles in May.
WTA stats in the last 12 months are better for Kartal on serve. Predicted holds also favour her.
Back Kartal around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.
13th September
WTA Monastir
Bronzetti 1.61 v Ruzic
Due to start at 5:30 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Ruzic.
Bronzetti reached the q finals last year. Easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Li in the 2nd round. 2nd round at the US Open. 3rd round in Indian Wells.
Ruzic has com through the qual rounds. 3 sets win over Podoroska as underdog in the 1st round. Easy win over Miyazaki in the 2nd round. CH semi in Aug. ITF title and ITF final in Jan.
WTA hard stats in the last year favour Ruzic. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Bronzetti around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Monastir
Starodubtseva v Kartal 1.66
Due to start at 8:30 pm
Starodubtseva 1-0 (Aug 2024, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Kartal.
Starodubtseva has come through the qual rounds. She needed 3 sets as favourite in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Parry as underdog in the 2nd round. CH q final in Feb.
Kartal has come through the qual rounds. She beat Cristian in 3 tight sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Hontama in the 2nd round. 2 ITF titles in Aug. 2 ITF titles in May.
WTA stats in 2024 are stronger for Kartal. Stats on all tours are also stronger for her.
Back Kartal around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.
12th September
WTA Monastir
Miyazaki v Ruzic 1.61
Due to start at 4 pm
Miyazaki 1-0 (Mar 2024, indoor, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Ruzic.
Miyazaki had won 5 of 12 matches on hard this season. She beat Parks in 3 sets as slight underdog in the 1st round.
Ruzic has com through the qual rounds. 3 sets win over Podoroska as underdog in the 1st round. CH semi in Aug. ITF title and ITF final in Jan.
12 month WTA stats are better for Ruzic. Stats on all tours are much better for Ruzic.
Back Ruzic around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Guadalajara
Krueger 1.55 v Frech
Due to start at 00:30 am
H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2024, clay, Frech in 2. Krueger won on hard in March 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s favour Frech.
Krueger beat Maria in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 3rd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Toronto. 3 WTA 2nd rounds in 2024.
Frech reached the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Bektas in the 1st round. Q finals in Monterrey. 3rd round in Dubai. 4th round at the Aus Open.
12 month stats are a little better for Krueger overall. Stats in 2024 are better for Krueger.
Back Krueger around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.
11th September
WTA Monastir
Sorribes Tormo 1.59 v Fett
Due to start at 4 pm
Tormo 2-0. Most recent Sep 2013, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in Dec 2012, 2 sets.
Tormo had a 2 sets win in the 1st round. She reached the 2nd round of the US Open. 2 other WTA 2nd rounds in 2024.
Fett beat Sherif in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. has only played 2 matches on hard in 2024.
12 month CH stats are better for Tormo.
Back Tormo around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
WTA Monastir
Parry 1.80 v Starodubtseva
Due to start at 5:30 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Starodubtseva.
Parry had an easy win in the 1st round. She reached the 2nd round at the US Open. 2nd round in Miami and 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Austin. 3rd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland in Jan.
Starodubtseva has come through the qual rounds. She needed 3 sets as favourite in the 1st round. CH q final in Feb.
12 month and 2024 stats are better for Parry on serve. Return stats and predicted holds are better for Starodubtseva. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Parry around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
10th September
WTA Monastir
Ruzic v Podoroska 1.81
Due to start at 4 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Ruzic.
Ruzic has com through the qual rounds. CH semi in Aug. ITF title and ITF final in Jan.
Podoroska reached the 2nd round last season. CH title in Aug. 2nd round in Miami. 3rd round in Indian Wells. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Ruzic but she only played 3 matches, all in qual rounds. Stats in CH/ITF matches favour Podoroska on serve.
Back Podoroska around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.70.
WTA Monastir
Bronzetti 1.62 v Galfi
Due to start at 7 pm
Galfi 3-2. Most recent Oct 2022 indoor, Galfi in 3. She won on hard in Mar 2022, 2 sets. Their other matches were on clay. Hard win %'s are close but favour Galfi.
Bronzetti reached the q finals last year. 2nd round at the US Open. 3rd round in Indian Wells.
Galfi reached the q finals in Hua Hin as qualifier in Jan.
12 month WTA stats are better for Galfi on serve and favour Bronzetti on return. Same pattern in 2024. Galfi has the better ROI on hard. Recent performances are better for Bronzetti.
Back Bronzetti around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.
9th September
WTA Monastir
Tsurenko v Lys 1.61
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Tsurenko 1-0 (Jan 2023, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Lys.
Tsurenko reached the semis last year. 3rd round in Doha. 3rd round at the Aus Open. 4 WTA 2nd rounds in 2024.
Lys lost in the 1st round of the US Open as qualifier. 8 of her 9 matches in 2024 were in qual rounds.
WTA hard stats in the last 12 months are stronger for Lys. Stats in 2024 also strongly favour her. ROI's favour Lys.
Back Lys around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Guadalajara
Krunic v Rakhimova 1.45
Due to start at 11 pm
Rakhimova 3-2. Most recent May 2022, clay, Krunic in 2. Rakhimova won on clay in April 2022, 3 sets. Rakhimova won on hard in Jan 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Rakhimova has come through the qual rounds. CH 2nd round (also in Guadalajara) last week.
Rakhimova won the Guadalajara CH last week. 2nd round in Washington. 2nd rounds in Austin and the Aus Open.
WTA stats in 2024 are better for Rakhimova on serve.
Back Rakhimova around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.
8th September
Prediction:
ATP US Open
Sinner in 4 sets
ATP US Open Final
Sinner 1.26 v Fritz
Due to start at 7 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent March 2023, hard, 3 sets. Fritz won on hard in Oct 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Sinner.
Sinner reached the 4th round last season. 4 sets win over McDonald in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Michelsen in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over O'Connell in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Paul in the 4th round. 4 sets win over Medvedev in the q final. 3 sets win over Draper in the semis. Title in Cincinnati. Q finals in Montreal. Title in Miami. Semis in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. Title in Beijing in Oct.
Fritz reached the q finals last season. 3 sets win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Berrettini in the 2nd round. Another 3 sets win in the 3rd round. 4 sets win over Ruud in the 4th round. 4 sets win over Zverev in the q final. 5 sets win over Tiafoe in the semi final. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title in Delray Beach. Q finals of the Aus Open.
12 month and 2024 stats are much better for Sinner. One doubt over Sinner is that he fell in the semi final and hurt his wrist.
Lay Sinner around 1.15 to 1.20 and remove liability at 1.35. Lay set 1 winner. 4 sets if Sinner's wrist holds up.
Cassis Challenger
Rodionov v Gasquet 1.66
Due to start at 12:00
1st meeting. Hard win %'s favour Gasquet.
Rodionov did not lose a set in the first 3 rounds. He was underdog in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Rocha as underdog in the semis. Very little hard success in the last year.
Gasquet had straight sets win in the 1st and 2nd rounds. He won in 3 sets in the q final. 2 sets win in the semi final. 2nd round in Doha. CH final in Feb. CH q final in Jan.
12 month and 2024 CH stats are better for Gasquet on serve and are fairly even on return.
Back Gasquet around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.55.
Gasquet in 2 sets.
7th September
Predictions:
WTA US Open
Sabalenka in 3 sets
WTA Montreax Challenger
Parrizas Diaz 1.71 v Marcinko
Due to start at 3:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Diaz.
Diaz had a very easy win in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Teichmann in the q final. She won an ITF title in Aug. CH semi in July.
Marcinko beat Chirico in 2 sets in the 1st round. Very easy win in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Wurth in the q final. She reached an ITF semi in July.
12 month clay stats on all tours are better for Diaz. Stats in 2024 are fairly even. Very slight edge to Diaz. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Diaz around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA US Open Final
Pegula v Sabalenka 1.34
Due to start at 9 pm
Sabalenka 5-2. Most recent Aug 2024, hard, Sabalenka in 2. Pegula won on hard in Oct 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are even.
Pegula reached the 4th round last season. 2 sets win over Rogers in the 1st round. 2 tight sets win over Kenin in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Maneiro in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Shnaider in the 4th round. 2 sets win over Swiatek in the q final. 3 sets win over Muchova in the semis. Final in Cincinnati. Title in Toronto. Q finals in Miami. Semis in San Diego and Adelaide.
Sabalenka reached the final last season. 2 sets win over Hon in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round over Bronzetti. She started slowly against Alexandrova in the 3rd round but recovered to win in 3. 2 sets win over Mertens in the 4th round. Very easy win over Zheng in the q final. 2 sets win in the semis over Navarro. Title in Cincinnati. Q finals in Toronto. Semis in Washington. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. Final in Brisbane.
12 month and 2024 stats are better for Sabalenka. Stats for the tournament are stronger for Sabalenka.
Pegula started her semi final with Muchova really poorly. When Muchova's level dropped when she was a set and a break up, Pegula was able to fight back.
Sabalenka got tight when serving for the match in the semis. If she gets tight again, Pegula can take a set.
Lay Sabalenka if she gets an early break of serve and remove liability if Pegula then gets a bp. Back Sabalenka around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.45.
6th September
Predictions:
ATP US Open
Sinner in 4 sets
Fritz in 4 sets
ATP US Open
Sinner 1.18 v Draper
Due to start at 8 pm
Draper 1-0 (June 2021, grass, 2 tie breaks). Hard win %'s are better for Sinner.
Sinner reached the 4th round last season. 4 sets win over McDonald in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Michelsen in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over O'Connell in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Paul in the 4th round. 4 sets win over Medvedev in the q final. Title in Cincinnati. Q finals in Montreal. Title in Miami. Semis in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. Title in Beijing in Oct.
Draper reached the 4th round last season. Easy win in the 1st round when Zhang retired. Easy win in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Zandschulp in the 3rd round. Easy win over Machac in the 4th round. 3 sets win over De Minaur in the q final. Q finals in Cincinnati. Semis in Acapulco. Final in Adelaide.
12 month and 2024 stats are much better for Sinner. De Minaur was not 100% fit in the q final with Draper. Draper has had a superb tournament. Playing his doubles partner could be interesting. Often the underdog in a doubles partnership can get better than expected results against their stronger partner.
Lay Sinner and remove liability at 1.35. Back Sinner around 1.70 to 1.85 and remove liability at 1.35. Draper can take a set.
ATP US Open
Fritz 1.39 v Tiafoe
Due to start at midnight
Fritz 6-1. Most recent Mar 2023, hard, Fritz in 2. He won their last 6 matches. 5 of them were on hard. Hard win %'s are better for Fritz.
Fritz reached the q finals last season. 3 sets win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Berrettini in the 2nd round. Another 3 sets win in the 3rd round. 4 sets win over Ruud in the 4th round. 4 sets win over Zverev in the q final. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title in Delray Beach. Q finals of the Aus Open.
Tiafoe reached the q finals last season. 4 sets win in the 1st round. His opponent retired in the 3rd set in the 2nd round. 5 sets win over Shelton in the 3rd round. 4 sets win over Popyrin in the 4th round. 4 sets win over an injured Dimitrov in the q final. Dimitrov retired. Final in Cincinnati. Semis in Washington. Semis in Delray Beach.
12 month and 2024 stats are stronger for Fritz. 4 sets.
Back Fritz around 1.90 to 2.00 or if he loses set 1.
5th September
Predictions:
WTA US Open
Sabalenka in 2 sets
Pegula in 3 sets
WTA US Open
Navarro v Sabalenka 1.26
Due to start at midnight
H2H 1-1. Most recent June 2024, clay, Sabalenka in 2. Navarro won on hard in March 2024, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are pretty even. Sabalenka leads in 2024.
Navarro lost in the 1st round last year. Very easy win over Blinkova in the 1st round. Easy win over Rus in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Kostyuk in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Gauff as underdog in the 4th round. She beat Badosa in 2 sets. She was 1-5 down in the 2nd set before Badosa completely fell apart. Semis in Monterrey. Semis in Toronto. 4th round in Miami. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in San Diego. 3rd round in Doha. 3rd round of the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
Sabalenka reached the final last season. 2 sets win over Hon in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round over Bronzetti. She started slowly against Alexandrova in the 3rd round but recovered to win in 3. 2 sets win over Mertens in the 4th round. Very easy win over Zheng in the q final. Title in Cincinnati. Q finals in Toronto. Semis in Washington. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. Final in Brisbane.
12 month hard stats are better for Sabalenka on serve. 2024 stats are stronger for Sabalenka.
Lay Sabalenka around 1.15 and remove liability at 1.40. Back Sabalenka around 1.75 and remove liability at 1.35.
WTA US Open
Pegula 1.67 v Muchova
Due to start at 1:30 am
Pegula 2-0. Most recent Aug 2024, hard, 3 sets. Her other win was by walkover. Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Pegula reached the 4th round last season. 2 sets win over Rogers in the 1st round. 2 tight sets win over Kenin in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Maneiro in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Shnaider in the 4th round. 2 sets win over Swiatek in the q final. Final in Cincinnati. Title in Toronto. Q finals in Miami. Semis in San Diego and Adelaide.
Muchova reached the semis last year. She has not played many tournaments since then but has performed well on all surfaces. 2 sets win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Osaka in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Potapova in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Paolini in the 4th round. Another 2 sets win in the q final over Haddad Maia.
12 month stats favour Muchova on serve. Return stats are close but favour Pegula. 2024 stats also favour Muchova though she has only played 7 matches. Good chance of 3 sets. Pegula has looked very strong this season. I am giving her a slight edge to win.
Lay Pegula if she gets an early break of serve and remove liability if Muchova then has a bp. Back Pegula around 2.20 to 2.30.
4th September
Predictions:
WTA US Open
Muchova in 3 sets
Swiatek in 3 sets
ATP US Open
De Minaur in 5 sets
Sinner in 4 sets
WTA US Open
Haddad Maia v Muchova 1.40
Due to start at 5 pm
Muchova 3-0. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Muchova.
Maia reached the 2nd round last year. 3 sets win over Avanesyan in the 1st round. Easy win over Sorribes Tormo in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over a weak Kalinskaya in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Wozniacki in the 4th round. Final in Cleveland. Semis in Abu Dhabi. 3rd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the Aus Open.
Muchova reached the semis last year. She has not played many tournaments since then but has performed well on all surfaces. 2 sets win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Osaka in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Potapova in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Paolini in the 4th round.
2024 stats are stronger for Muchova. Stats for the tournament favour Muchova on serve and strongly favour Maia on return. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Muchova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.50.
ATP US Open
Draper v De Minaur 1.86
Due to start at 6:30 pm
De Minaur 3-0. Most recent March 2024, hard, Draper retired. He won on hard in Oct 2023, 3rd set tie break. He won on grass in June 2022, 4 sets. Hard win %'s are better for De Minaur.
Draper reached the 4th round last season. Easy win in the 1st round when Zhang retired. Easy win in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Zandschulp in the 3rd round. Easy win over Machac in the 4th round. Q finals in Cincinnati. Semis in Acapulco. Final in Adelaide.
De Minaur reached the 4th round last year. 4 sets win over Giron in the 1st round. 3 sets win in the 2nd round. 4 sets win in the 3rd round over Evans. 4 sets win over Thompson in the 4th round. 4th round in Miami. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title in Acapulco. 4th round of the Aus Open.
12 month ATP stats are pretty even. Very slight edge to Draper. Stats this season favour De Minaur. 4 or 5 sets.
Back De Minaur around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
3rd September
Predictions:
WTA US Open
Badosa in 3 sets
Sabalenka in 2 sets
ATP US Open
Fritz in 5 sets
Dimitrov in 5 sets
WTA US Open
Badosa 1.84 v Navarro
Due to start at 5 pm
Badosa 1-0 (May 2024, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Navarro.
Badosa had an easy win over Golubic in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round. 3rd set tie break win over Ruse in the 3rd round. Easy win over Wang in the 4th round. She reached the semis in Cinci. Title in Washington. 3rd round at the Aus Open.
Navarro lost in the 1st round last year. Very easy win over Blinkova in the 1st round. Easy win over Rus in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Kostyuk in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Gauff as underdog in the 4th round. Semis in Monterrey. Semis in Toronto. 4th round in Miami. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in San Diego. 3rd round in Doha. 3rd round of the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
12 month and 2024 stats are better for Badosa on serve. Looking at performances in the last month, I favour Badosa to win.
Back Badosa around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
ATP US Open
Fritz v Zverev 1.61
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Zverev 6-4. Most recent July 2024, grass, Fritz in 5. Zverev won on clay in May 2024. Fritz won on hard in Jan 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Fritz.
Fritz reached the q finals last season. 3 sets win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Berrettini in the 2nd round. Another 3 sets win in the 3rd round. 4 sets win over Ruud in the 4th round. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title in Delray Beach. Q finals of the Aus Open.
Zverev reached the q finals last season. 4 sets win over Marterer in the 1st round. 3 sets win in the 2nd round. 4 sets win over Etcheverry in the 3rd round. He beat Nakashima in 4 sets in the 4th round. Semis in Cincinnati. Q finals in Montreal. Semis in Miami. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in Los Cabos and semis at the Aus Open.
12 month ATP stats are close but favour Fritz overall. 2024 stats are close but favour Fritz on serve. 4 or 5 sets.
Lay Zverev around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.
2nd September
WTA US Open
Muchova 1.67 v Paolini
Due to start at 4 pm
Muchova 3-0. Most recent Feb 2021, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2018, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are slightly better for Muchova.
Muchova reached the semis last year. She has not played many tournaments since then but has performed well on all surfaces. 2 sets win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Osaka in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Potapova in the 3rd round.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 3 sets win over Andreescu in the 1st round. In the 2nd round, her opponent, Pliskova, retired after 3 points. 2 sets win over Putintseva in the 4th round. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title in Dubai. 4th round of the Aus Open. She reached the French Open and Wimbledon finals in 2024.
12 month stats and 2024 stats are stronger for Muchova on serve. Predicted holds are better for Muchova. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Muchova around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA US Open
Wozniacki 1.94 v Haddad Maia
Due to start at 7:30 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are a little better for Wozniacki.
Wozniacki reached the 4th round last year. Easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Zarazua in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Ponchet in the 3rd round. Q finals in Indian Wells. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
Maia reached the 2nd round last year. 3 sets win over Avanesyan in the 1st round. Easy win over Sorribes Tormo in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over a weak Kalinskaya in the 3rd round. Final in Cleveland. Semis in Abu Dhabi. 3rd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the Aus Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Wozniacki. Stats in 2024 are better for Maia on serve. Return stats and predicted holds are better for Wozniacki. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Maia around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
1st September
ATP US Open
Rublev 2.00 v Dimitrov 2.00
Due to start at 5 pm
Rublev 4-3. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Rublev in 2. Dimitrov won indoors in 2022, 2 sets. Rublev won on hard in March 2022, 2 sets.
Rublev reached the q final last year. Easy win over Wild in the 1st round. He was 2 sets down to Rinderknech in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Lehecka in the 3rd round. Q finals in Cinci. Final in Montreal. Q finals in Washington. Semis in Dubai. Q finals of the Aus Open. Final in Shanghai.
Dimitrov reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win in the 1st round. Another 3 sets win in the 2nd round. Easy win over Griekspoor in the 3rd round. Final in Miami. 4th round in Indian Wells. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Shanghai. Semis in Chengdu.
12 month stats are very even. Stats in 2024 are stronger for Dimitrov. 1 month stats favour Dimitrov on serve. He has the better ROI on hard. 4 or 5 sets.
Lay Rublev around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA US Open
Navarro v Gauff 1.51
Due to start at 7:30 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent July 2024, grass, Navarro in 2. Gauff won on hard in Jan 2024, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are even.
Navarro lost in the 1st round last year. Very easy win over Blinkova in the 1st round. Easy win over Rus in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Kostyuk in the 3rd round. Semis in Monterrey. Semis in Toronto. 4th round in Miami. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in San Diego. 3rd round in Doha. 3rd round of the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
Gauff won the title last season. Very easy win over Gracheva in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Svitolina in the 3rd round. 4th round in Miami. Semis in Indian Wells. Q finals in Dubai. Semis of the Aus Open. Title in Auckland. Semis in Beijing.
12 month and 2024 stats favour Gauff. Stats for the tournament favour Gauff on serve and Navarro on return. Navarro has the better ROI on hard.
In the last 3 months, Navarro has been broken in her 1st service game 54% of the time.
Lay Gauff if she gets an early break of serve. Remove liability if Navarro then gets a bp. Back Gauff around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.
31st August
WTA US Open
Putintseva v Paolini 1.81
Due to start at 4 pm
Paolini 1-0 (Sep 2021, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are fairly even. Slight edge to Paolini.
Putintseva lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Noskova in the 1st round as slight favourite. 2 sets win over Wang in the 2nd round. 3rd round in Cinci. Q finals in Miami. 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Hua Hin. Q finals in Hobart.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 3 sets win over Andreescu in the 1st round. In the 2nd round, her opponent, Pliskova, retired after 3 points. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title in Dubai. 4th round of the Aus Open. She reached the French Open and Wimbledon finals in 2024.
Paolini has the better ROI on hard. 12 month stats are stronger for Putintseva. 2024 stats favour Paolini on serve and Putintseva on return. Predicted holds are slightly better for Paolini. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Paolini around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
ATP US Open
Borges 1.60 v Mensik
Due to start at 9 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Mensik.
Borges lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Kokkinakis in the 2nd round. 3rd round in Montreal. CH title in March. Q finals in Los Cabos. 4th round of the Aus Open.
Mensik reached the 3rd round as qualifier last year. 3 sets win over Aliassime in the 1st round. 5th set tie break win as strong favourite in the 2nd round. Final in Doha. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
12 month stats and 2024 stats are better for Mensik on serve. Return stats are close but favour Borges. Predicted holds favour Mensik. 4 or 5 sets.
Lay Borges around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.
30th August
WTA US Open
Navarro 1.67 v Kostyuk
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Navarro 1-0 (Aug 2024, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Navarro.
Navarro lost in the 1st round last year. Very easy win over Blinkova in the 1st round. Easy win over Rus in the 2nd round. Semis in Monterrey. Semis in Toronto. 4th round in Miami. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in San Diego. 3rd round in Doha. 3rd round of the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
Kostyuk lost in the 1st round last season. 2 sets win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Dart in the 2nd round. 3rd round in Cinci. 3rd round in Toronto. Semis in Indian Wells. Final in San Diego. Q finals at the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. 3rd round in Beijing.
12 month stats strongly favour Navarro on serve. in the 2024 stats she still leads on serve but its much closer. Recent performances are better for Kostyuk. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Navarro around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA US Open
Keys 1.43 v Mertens
Due to start at midnight
Keys 3-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Mertens in 3. keys won on grass in July 2021, 2 sets. Keys won on hard in 2019 and 2017, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Keys.
Keys reached the semis last year. 2 sets win over Siniakova in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round over Joint. 4th round in Miami.
Mertens reached the 3rd round last season. 3 sets win over Kudermetova in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Tomljanovic in the 2nd round. 3rd round in Toronto. 4th round in Indian Wells. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Final in Hobart. Title in Monastir in Oct. Q finals in Hong Kong.
12 month stats are better for Keys on serve. Stats in 2024 are better for Keys on serve and favour Mertens on return. Decent chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Keys.
Back Keys around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
29th August
WTA US Open
Putintseva 1.63 v Wang
Due to start at 4 pm
Wang 3-0. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, 3 sets. All their matches were on hard. 2 went to 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Putintseva.
Putintseva lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Noskova in the 1st round as slight favourite. 3rd round in Cinci. Q finals in Miami. 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Hua Hin. Q finals in Hobart.
Wang reached the 4th round last year. She needed 3 sets in the 1st round as strong favourite. 3rd round in Miami. Semis in Hua Hin. 3rd round in Beijing and semis in Osaka.
12 month stats favour Putintseva overall. IN 2024 Wang leads on service holds and first serve points won but stats overall favour Putintseva. Recent performances are better for Putintseva.
Back Putintseva around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.
WTA US Open
Cocciaretto v Pavlyuchenkova 1.55
Due to start at 7:30 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Pavlyuchenkova.
Cocciaretto lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win in the 1st round. CH title in March. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
Pavlyuchenkova reached the 2nd round last season. Easy win in the 1st round. Q finals in Cincinnati. 4th round in Indian Wells. Semis in Doha. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
12 month and 2024 stats are stronger for Pavlyuchenkova.
Back Pavlyuchenkova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
28th August
WTA US Open
Tomljanovic v Mertens 1.46
Due to start at 4 pm
Tomljanovic 2-1. Most recent Nov 2022, indoor, Mertens retired. Tomljanovic won on grass in 2021, 3 tie breaks. Mertens won on clay in 2018, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Mertens.
Tomljanovic withdrew from the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Li in the 1st round. 2nd round of the Aus Open
Mertens reached the 3rd round last season. 3 sets win over Kudermetova in the 1st round. 3rd round in Toronto. 4th round in Indian Wells. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Final in Hobart. Title in Monastir in Oct. Q finals in Hong Kong.
12 month and 2024 stats are stronger for Mertens.
Back Mertens around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.
WTA US Open
Parry v Wang 1.87
Due to start at 7 pm
1st meeting. 12 month hard win %'s favour Wang. They are even in 2024.
Parry lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Xiyu Wang in 2 tie breaks in the 1st round. 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Austin. 3rd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Austin.
Wang reached the 2nd round as qualifier last year. She beat Sakkari in the 1st round when Sakkari retired after set 1. Q finals in Austin. Semis in Hua Hin. 3rd round at the Aus Open.
2024 stats are better for Parry on serve and predicted holds also favour her.
Lay Wang around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10.
Decent chance of 3 sets. Parry has the edge.
27th August
WTA US Open
Boulter 1.60 v Sasnovich
Due to start at 4 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s favour Boulter.
Boulter reached the 3rd round last year. 3rd round in Toronto. 4th round in Miami. Title in San Diego. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
Sasnovich lost in the 1st round last season. She has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Nanchang in Oct.
12 month stats and stats in 2024 are stronger for Boulter on serve. Predicted holds also favour her.
Back Boulter around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA US Open
Lys v Bouzkova 1.44
Due to start at 9:30 pm
Bouzkova 1-0 (Oct 2023, hard, Lys retired). Hard win %'s are better for Lys.
Lys reached the 2nd round as qualifier last year. She made it through the qual rounds again this time.
Bouzkova reached the 3rd round last year. Final in Washington. Q finals in Auckland. 3 other WTA 2nd rounds in 2024.
2024 stats are stronger on sere for Bouzkova.
Back Bouzkova around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
26th August
WTA US Open
Zheng 1.73 v Anisimova
Due to start at 4 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are a little better for Anisimova.
Zheng reached the q finals last year. Q finals in Dubai. Final of the Aus Open. Title in Zhengzhou in Oct.
Anisimova reached the final in Toronto. Q finals in Washington. 4th round of the Aus Open.
12 month stats favour Zheng on serve and Anisimova on return. Same pattern in 2024. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Zheng around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA US Open
Kudermetova v Mertens 1.83
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Mertens 4-2. Most recent Feb 2023, hard, Kudermetova in 2. She won on clay in May 2021, 3 sets. Mertens won on clay in April 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Mertens.
Kudermetova lost in the 1st round last year. On hard, she won her first match of a tournament just 4 times in 2024. She won the title in Tokyo in Oct.
Mertens reached the 3rd round last season. 3rd round in Toronto. 4th round in Indian Wells. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Final in Hobart. Title in Monastir in Oct. Q finals in Hong Kong.
12 month stats are a little better for Kudermetova overall. 2024 stats are stronger for Mertens.
Back Mertens around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Chance of 3 sets but I have to favour Mertens to win.
24th August
WTA Cleveland
Haddad Maia 1.46 v Kessler
Due to start at 7:30 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Kessler. Hard win %'s are better for Kessler.
Maia had a 2 sets win over Golubic in the 1st round. Easy win over Bucsa in the 2nd round. Easy win over a poor Burel in the q final. 3 sets win over Siniakova in the semis. She reached the semis in Abu Dhabi. 3rd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in San Diego. 2nd round of the US Open.
Kessler beat Scott in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Wang in 3 sets as underdog. 2 sets win over Rus in the q final. 3 sets win over Potapova as underdog in the semi final. She won an ITF title in Aug. CH title in Feb. 2nd round at the Aus Open. She lost in the qual rounds of the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Kessler. Stats in 2024 are better for Maia on serve. Return stats are quite even.
Chance of 3 sets. Back Maia around 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50. Lay set 1 winner.
ATP Winston Salem
Sonego v Michelsen 1.75
Due to start at 10 pm
Sonego 1-0 (May 2024, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Michelsen.
Sonego had a walkover in the 3rd round and beat Stricker in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kotov in the q final. 2 sets win over a poor Goffin in the semi final. He reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. 4 other ATP 2nd rounds in 2024. 3rd round in Shanghai. 2nd round of the US Open.
Michelsen reached the 3rd round last season. 2 sets win over Fucsovics in the 2nd round. Easy win over Bergs in the 3rd round. 3rd set tie break win over Eubanks. Michelsen was a double break down to Carreno Busta in the semi final. He recovered to take the set in a tie break. Carreno Busta retired early in set 2. Q finals in Washington. Q final in Los Cabos. 3rd round at the Aus Open. 2nd round of the US Open.
12 month ATP stats are better for Michelsen overall. 2024 stats also favour Michelsen overall. Recent performances favour Michelsen.
Back Michelsen around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Back Michelsen if he loses set 1.
23rd August
WTA Cleveland
Kessler v Potapova 1.62
Due to start at 10:30 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Kessler.
Kessler beat Scott in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Wang in 3 sets as underdog. 2 sets win over Rus in the q final. She won an ITF title in Aug. CH title in Feb. 2nd round at the Aus Open. She lost in the qual rounds of the US Open.
Potapova had an easy win over Parry in the 1st round. Easy win over Tauson in the 2nd round. Another easy win over Bogdan in the q final. She reached the q finals in Indian Wells. 3rd round in Dubai. Q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego.
12 month WTA stats are better for Kessler on serve. She also leads on serve in 2024. Decent chance of 3 sets. Kessler has the better ROI in the last year.
Lay Potapova around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Cleveland
Haddad Maia 1.58 v Siniakova
Due to start at midnight
H2H 1-1. Most recent March 2023, hard, Maia in 3. Siniakova won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Siniakova.
Maia had a 2 sets win over Golubic in the 1st round. Easy win over Bucsa in the 2nd round. Easy win over a poor Burel in the q final. She reached the semis in Abu Dhabi. 3rd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in San Diego. 2nd round of the US Open.
Siniakova lost in the 1st round last year. She needed a 3rd set tie break as 1.17 favourite in the 1st round. Another 3rd set tie break win as favourite in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Stearns as underdog in the q final. 3rd round in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. 4 other WTA 2nd rounds in 2024. Title in Nanchang and final in Hong Kong in Oct. Q final in Ningbo.
12 month WTA stats are stronger for Maia on serve. Return stats favour Siniakova. Same pattern in 2024. Stats for the tournament favour Maia. Siniakova has the better ROI.
Siniakova's match with Stearns was a bit of a mess. Both players were broken 7 times.
Back Maia around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
22nd August
WTA Cleveland
Potapova 1.51 v Bogdan
Due to start at 4 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Potapova had an easy win over Parry in the 1st round. Easy win over Tauson in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals in Indian Wells. 3rd round in Dubai. Q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego.
Bogdan lost in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds. 3 sets win over Fernandez in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Minnen. 2nd round in Adelaide.
12 month WTA stats are better for Bogdan. Return stats favour Potapova. Stats in 2024 are fairly even. Stats this week favour Potapova overall.
Back Potapova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.
WTA Monterrey
Andreeva v Sun 1.84
Due to start at 10:30 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Andreeva beat Kalinina in 2 sets as underdog. She beat Collins in 3 sets as underdog. She reached a CH q final in March. 2nd round in Doha as qualifier.
Sun beat Paquet in 2 sets in the 1st round. She needed a 3rd set tie break against Carle in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round in Cinci as qualifier. 2nd round in Dubai. 2nd round in Auckland as qualifier. ITF final in Oct.
12 month WTA stats are better for Sun on serve. 2024 stats also favour her on serve. Decent chance of 3 sets. Sun has the better ROI on hard.
Back Sun around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
21st August
WTA Cleveland
Kessler v Wang 1.51
Due to start at 4 pm
Wang 1-0 (Aug 2023, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Kessler.
Kessler beat Scott in 3 sets in the 1st round. She won an ITF title in Aug. CH title in Feb. 2nd round at the Aus Open. She lost in the qual rounds of the US Open.
Wang reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Blinkova in the 1st round. 3rd round in Miami. Semis in Hua Hin. 3rd round in Beijing, semis in Osaka and reached the 4th round of the US Open.
12 month stats favour Kessler on serve. Return stats are fairly even. In 2024, serve stats are even but Wang leads on return.
Back Wang around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
Chance of 3 sets.
WTA Cleveland
Minnen v Bogdan 1.79
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Bogdan 3-0. Most recent Aug 2024, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in Dec 2019, 3 sets. 12 month hard win %'s are better for Minnen.
Minnen lost in the qual rounds. 2 sets win over Cristian in the 1st round. 3rd round in Miami. CH semi in March. Semis in Guangzhou in Sep. 3rd round at the US Open.
Bogdan lost in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds. 3 sets win over Fernandez in the 1st round. 2nd round in Adelaide.
12 month WTA stats are better for Minnen. 2024 stats favour Minnen overall.
Bogdan beat Minnen in the qual rounds She had a lot of help from Fernandez in the previous round.
Lay Bogdan around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
Chance of 3 sets.
20th August
WTA Cleveland
Sorribes Tormo v Wang 1.50
Due to start at 4 pm
Tormo 2-1. Most recent Jan 2020, hard, Wang in 3. Tormo won on clay in 2018, 3 sets, She won on hard in 2017, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Wang.
Tormo won the title last season. A 2nd round in Abu Dhabi in Feb is her best result in 2024. Q finals in Hong Kong in Oct. 2nd round at the US Open.
Wang reached the q finals in Austin and semis in Hua Hin. 3rd round at the Aus Open. 2nd round of the US Open.
12 month stats favour Wang on serve and favour Tormo on return. 2024 stats favour Wang.
Back Wang around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.45.
Update: Wang got the first break of serve to lead 3-1. She was immediately broken back. Wang broke again in the next game. She had been broken easily in her previous service game so I laid her. She faced a bp and I removed most of my liability. She saved that bp but faced another and was broken.
I removed the rest of my liability . Sorribes Tormo broke again to lead 5-4 and I hedged evenly. She easily served out the set.
Wang's serve stats in the first set were terrible. She had no ranking points to defend and Tormo was defending Title ranking points. I did not enter in the 2nd set. Wang's stats were a little worse in set 2 and she was broken twice.
Sorribes Tormo won 6-4, 6-1.
WTA Cleveland
Minnen 1.97 v Cristian
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Cristian 2-0. Most recent Oct 2023, indoor, 2 sets. She won on hard in Jan 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Minnen.
Minnen lost in the qual rounds. 3rd round in Miami. CH semi in March. Semis in Guangzhou in Sep. 3rd round at the US Open.
Cristian won 1 hard court match in 2024. That was in a Challenger in March. She reached the semis in Prague in Aug 2023 which was a rare good result on hard courts. She won 1 of her last 10.
12 month stats and 2024 stats favour Minnen.
Lay Cristian around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.
Update: Minnen broke first to lead 2-1. A late break gave her the set.
Cristian did have 2 bp's in the first set but I didn't give her much chance to recover. I did not lay Minnen who served first in set 2.
I wish I had laid as Cristian broke her! Minnen broke straight back. I tried a small lay of Minnen who was broken in the next game. I removed liability, leaving the green on Minnen.
Minnen broke back to 4-4. I left the free bet on her. She was immediately broken again in the next game!
Minnen broke back to 5-5 and they ended up in a tie break. Minnen won a close tie break.
Minnen won 6-3, 7-6.
19th August
WTA Cincinnati
Sabalenka 1.41 v Pegula
Due to start at 8 pm
Sabalenka 4-2. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Pegula in 2. Sabalenka won on hard in Nov 2022, 2 sets. Only one of their matches went to 3 sets which was their first meeting in 2020. Pegula won. Hard win %'s are slightly better for Pegula.
Sabalenka reached the semis last year. 2 sets win over Cocciaretto in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Svitolina. 2 sets win over Samsonova in the q final. 2 sets win over Swiatek in the semi final. Q finals in Toronto. Semis in Washington. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. Final in Brisbane. Q finals in Beijing. Final of the US Open.
Pegula reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Muchova in 3 sets in the 2nd round and had a straight sets win over Townsend in the 3rd round. 3rd set tie break win over Fernandez in the q final. 3 sets win over Badosa in the semi final. Title in Toronto. Q finals in Miami. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide. Title in Seoul. Final in Tokyo. 4th round of the US Open.
12 month hard stats are better for Sabalenka on serve and favour Pegula on return. 2024 stats favour Sabalenka.
Back Sabalenka around 1.90 to 2.10. Remove liability at 1.55.
WTA Cleveland
Volynets v Kenin 1.96
Due to start at 10 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent March 2024, hard, Volynets in 3. Kenin won on hard in Sep 2023, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Volynets.
Volynets reached the 3rd round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Hua Hin. 2 CH semis in 2024.
Kenin reached the q finals in Guadalajara in Sep. Final in San Diego in Sep. 2nd round of the US Open. She has been in poor form since Sep. She won 1 of her last 10 on hard.
Lay Kenin around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets.
18th August
WTA Cincinnati
Swiatek 1.65 v Sabalenka
Due to start at 4 pm
Swiatek 8-3. Most recent May 2024, clay, Swiatek in 2. She won 4 of their last 5 meetings which were all in the last 2 seasons. She won on hard in Nov 2023, 2 sets. Sabalenka won on clay in May 2023 and on hard in Nov 2022, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Swiatek.
Swiatek reached the semis last year. She needed 3 sets against Gracheva in the 2nd round. Easy win over Kostyuk in the 3rd round. Tight 3 sets win over Andreeva in the q final. 4th round in Miami. Title in Indian Wells. Semis in Dubai. Title in Doha. 3rd round of the Aus Open. Title in Beijing. 4th round of the US Open.
Sabalenka reached the semis last year. 2 sets win over Cocciaretto in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Svitolina. 2 sets win over Samsonova in the q final. Q finals in Toronto. Semis in Washington. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. Final in Brisbane. Q finals in Beijing. Final of the US Open.
12 month stats and stats in 2024 are stronger for Swiatek. Stats for the tournament are better for Sabalenka on serve. Swiatek needed 3 sets in 2 of her 3 matches.
Lay Swiatek around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.90. Decent chance of 3 sets.
WTA Cincinnati
Pegula 1.86 v Badosa
Due to start at 6 pm
Pegula 2-0. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, 2 sets. She won on hard in March 2022, Badosa retired. Hard win %'s are better for Pegula.
Pegula reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Muchova in 3 sets in the 2nd round and had a straight sets win over Townsend in the 3rd round. 3rd set tie break win over Fernandez in the q final. Title in Toronto. Q finals in Miami. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide. Title in Seoul. Final in Tokyo. 4th round of the US Open.
Badosa beat Stearns in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets wins over Kalinskaya and Putintseva. Another straight sets win over Pavlyuchenkova in the q final. She won the title in Washington in Aug. 3rd round of the Aus Open.
12 month stats and stats in 2024 are better for Badosa overall. Stats for the tournament are better for Pavlyuchenkova on serve.
12 month stats favour Badosa on serve. Pegula leads on return. Same pattern in 2024.
Pegula played 2 matches on Friday and looked very tired against Fernandez. Fernandez helped her a lot by hitting the ball straight to her. A player with a brain would have made Pegula run from side to side to tire her out more.
Lay Pegula around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.00. Chance of 3 sets.
17th August
WTA Cincinnati
Sabalenka 1.35 v Samsonova
Due to start at 6 pm
Samsonova 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Samsonova in 3. Sabalenka won in 2 tie breaks in Jan 2023. Samsonova won on hard in Oct 2022, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Sabalenka.
Sabalenka reached the semis last year. 2 sets win over Cocciaretto in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Svitolina. Q finals in Toronto. Semis in Washington. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. Final in Brisbane. Q finals in Beijing. Final of the US Open.
Samsonova lost in the 1st round last season. 2 sets win over Wang in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. She needed 3 sets against Avanesyan in the 3rd round. Q finals in Toronto. 3rd round in Dubai. Semis in Abu Dhabi. Final in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month stats and 2024 stats are stronger for Sabalenka.
Back Sabalenka around 1.85 to 2.00. Remove liability at 1.45.
WTA Cincinnati
Pegula 1.50 v Fernandez
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Pegula 1-0 (March 2024, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Pegula.
Pegula reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Muchova in 3 sets in the 2nd round and had a straight sets win over Townend in the 3rd round. Title in Toronto. Q finals in Miami. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide. Title in Seoul. Final in Tokyo. 4th round of the US Open.
Fernandez lost in the qual round last year. 3 sets win over Yuan in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Rybakina and 2 sets win over Shnaider. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Semis in Nanchang and title in Hong Kong in Oct. Q finals in Guadalajara. Q finals in Cleveland.
2024 stats are stronger for Pegula.
Back Pegula round 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
16th August
WTA Cincinnati
Samsonova 1.44 v Avanesyan
Due to start at 4 pm
Samsonova 1-0 (July 2024, grass, 2 sets). 12 month hard win %'s are better for Samsonova but Avanesyan leads in 2024.
Samsonova lost in the 1st round last season. 2 sets win over Wang in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. Q finals in Toronto. 3rd round in Dubai. Semis in Abu Dhabi. Final in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open.
Avanesyan lost in the qual rounds. 2 sets win over Andreescu as underdog in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Ostapenko in the 3rd round. 3rd round in Madrid. 3rd round of the Aus Open. 2nd round of the US Open.
12 month stats favour Samsonova on serve. 2024 stats favour her on serve and favour Avanesyan on return. Predicted holds favour Avanesyan.
Avanesyan struggled in the 1st set on serve and was broken 4 times. Back Samsonova around 1.90 and remove liability at 1.45.
WTA Cincinnati
Shnaider 1.79 v Fernandez
Due to start at 8:30 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s favour Shnaider.
Shnaider beat Zhang in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Krueger in the 2nd round. She reached the semis in Toronto. Title in Hua Hin in Feb. Semis in Nanchang. Final in Ningbo in Sep.
Fernandez lost in the qual round last year. 3 sets win over Yuan in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Rybakina in the 2nd round. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Semis in Nanchang and title in Hong Kong in Oct. Q finals in Guadalajara. Q finals in Cleveland.
Fernandez saved 2 match points against Rybakina. She hit 13 d faults in the last round. Shnaider struggled on serve in her first set with Krueger and was broken 3 times. She didn't loses a game in set 2.
12 month stats are better for Shnaider.
Back Shnaider around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.
15th August
WTA Cincinnati
Samsonova 1.54 v Linette
Due to start at 6 pm
Samsonova 2-0. Most recent May 2024, clay, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Samsonova.
Samsonova lost in the 1st round last season. 2 sets win over Wang in the 1st round. Q finals in Toronto. 3rd round in Dubai. Semis in Abu Dhabi. Final in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open.
Linette lost in the 1st round last season. 3 sets win over Boulter as underdog in the 1st round. 4 WTA 2nd rounds in 2024. 3rd round in Beijing in Oct. Final in Guangzhou in Sep. 2nd round of the US Open.
12 month stats are better for Samsonova on serve. 2024 stats also favour her on serve. Return stats are pretty even.
Back Samsonova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.
WTA Cincinnati
Andreeva 1.44 v Pliskova
Due to start at 7:30 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Andreeva.
Andreeva beat Navarro in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 4th round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Brisbane. 3rd round in Beijing. 2nd round at the US Open. 2nd round in Cleveland.
Pliskova lost in the 1st round last year. She needed 2 tie breaks against Tomova in the 1st round. 3rd round in Dubai. Semis in Doha. 2nd round of the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Andreeva. 2024 stats are a little better for Pliskova on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Andreeva.
Lay Andreeva around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.
14th August
WTA Cincinnati
Fernandez 1.37 v Yuan
Due to start at 5:30 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Yuan.
Fernandez lost in the qual round last year. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Semis in Nanchang and title in Hong Kong in Oct. Q finals in Guadalajara. Q finals in Cleveland.
Yuan reached the q finals in Indian Wells. Title in Austin. Semis in Hobart. Final in Seoul in Oct.
12 month WTA stats are very even. Slight edge to Fernandez. 2024 stats favour Yuan.
Chance of 3 sets. Lay Fernandez around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Cincinnati
Pavlyuchenkova 1.76 v Haddad Maia
Due to start at 10 pm
Pavlyuchenkova 3-0. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, 3 sets. All their matches were on hard. 2 went to 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Pavlyuchenkova.
Pavlyuchenkova lost in the 1st round last year. 4th round in Indian Wells. Semi in Doha. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. Q finals in Hong Kong. Semis in Tokyo. 2nd round of the US Open.
Maia lost in the 1st round last year. Semis in Abu Dhabi. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in San Diego. 2nd round of the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are stronger for Pavlyuchenkova. 2024 stats are closer but favour Pavlyuchenkova overall.
13th August
ATP Cincinnati
Tabilo 1.42 v Darderi
Due to start at 4 pm
Tabilo 2-1. Most recent Mar 2024, clay, Tabilo in 2. Darderi won on clay in Nov 2023, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Tabilo.
Tabilo reached the 3rd round in Montreal. Title in Auckland. CH title in Nov.
Darderi has not won a main draw ATP hard match. He kept the sets close with Tommy Paul in Montreal and took Shapovalov to 3 sets in Miami.
Back Tabilo around 1.75.
Update: Matches like these are frustrating. Tabilo wasn't interested but still had 11 break chances in the match. He took one of them. He was broken twice from the 5 bp's faced.
Tabilo was broken in the second game and I backed him. The next 2 games were easy holds. Darderi served at 3-2 and faced a bp. I reduced liability. He saved the bp and also saved another in the same game.
Darderi served for the set at 5-3. He went 0-40 down and I hedged for a small profit. Darderi saved 4 bp in that game but held to take the set.
I Laid Darderi at the start of set 2. When he served at 2-3, he was broken. I hedged evenly and did not intend entering again.
Tabilo was immediately broken back and the set ended in a tie break that Darderi won 7-5.
Darderi won 6-3, 7-6.
WTA Cincinnati
Mertens v Kostyuk 1.64
Due to start at 5:30 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Kostyuk in 3rd set tie break. Mertens won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s in the last year give a slight edge to Kostyuk. She has a bigger lead in 2024.
Mertens reached the 2nd round last year. 3rd round in Toronto. 4th round in Indian Wells. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Final in Hobart. Title in Monastir. Q finals in Hong Kong. 3rd round of the US Open.
Kostyuk lost in the 1st round last season. 3rd round in Toronto. Semis in Indian Wells. Final in San Diego. Q finals of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. 3rd round in Beijing.
12 month WTA stats are better for Mertens on serve. 2024 stats are better for Mertens on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Kostyuk. Kostyuk has the better ROI this year and also much better results. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Kostyuk around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
12th August
WTA Cincinnati qualifying round
Volynets v Townsend 1.65
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Townsend 3-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Townsend in 2 sets. Their other matches were on clay. 12 month hard win %'s are a little better for Townsend. Volynets leads in 2024.
Volynets had a straight sets win in the previous qual round. She reached the 3rd round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Hua Hin in Feb.
Townsend lost in the qual rounds last year. She had a straight sets win in the previous qual round. Q finals in Toronto. 3rd round in Miami. 3rd round in Guadalajara. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month and 2024 WTA stats are better for Townsend on serve. Volynets leads on return. Fait chance of 3 sets.
Back Townsend around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
WTA Toronto
Pegula 1.51 v Anisimova
Due to start at 11 pm
Pegula 2-0. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, 3rd set tie break. She won on hard in 2020, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are a little better for Anisimova.
Pegula won the title last season. 2 sets win over Pliskova in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Krueger in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Stearns in the q final. 2 sets win over Shnaider in the semis. Q finals in Miami. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide. Title in Seoul. Final in Tokyo. 4th round at the US Open.
Anisimova beat Dolehide in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kasatkina in the 2nd round. Kalinskaya retired after the 1st set in the 3rd round. In the q final, Sabalenka had some issues with her serve and often took a long time to serve. How she wasn't called for a time violation, I don't know. 3 sets win over Navarro in the semi final. She reached the q finals last week. 4th round of the Aus Open.
12 month WTA stats favour Pegula overall. 2024 stats are VERY even. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Lay Pegula if she gets an early break of serve. Remove liability if Anisimova then gets a bp. Back Pegula around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
11th August
WTA Toronto
Navarro 1.65 v Anisimova
Due to start at 6 pm
Anisimova 1-0 (Mar 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are close but favour Anisimova.
Navarro had a straight sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kostyuk in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Townsend in the q final. She reached the 4th round in Miami. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in San Diego. 3rd round in Doha. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland. Semis in San Diego.
Anisimova beat Dolehide in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kasatkina in the 2nd round. Kalinskaya retired after the 1st set in the 3rd round. IN the q final, Sabalenka had some issues with her serve and often took a long time to serve. How she wasn't called for a time violation, I don't know. She reached the q finals last week. 4th round of the Aus Open.
12 month and 2024 hard stats are better for Anisimova. Return stats are even. Stats for the tournament also favour Anisimova.
Lay Navarro around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.95.
WTA Toronto
Shnaider v Pegula 1.50
Due to start at 11 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Pegula.
Shnaider beat Dart in a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round. She also needed a 3rd set tie break in the 2nd round. She made an awful start to the match. She easily beat Gauff in 2 sets in the 3rd round. Gauff either didn't want to be there or had a complete nightmare match. 3 sets win over Samsonova in the q final. She reached a CH final in March. Title in Hua Hin in Feb. Semis in Nanchang and final in Ningbo.
Pegula won the title last season. 2 sets win over Pliskova in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Krueger in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Stearns in the q final. Q finals in Miami. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide. Title in Seoul. Final in Tokyo. 4th round at the US Open.
Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara in Sep. 2nd round of the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Pegula. 2024 stats are better for Shnaider on serve. Return stats and predicted holds are better for Pegula.
Lay Pegula around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.75. Back Pegula around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
10th August
The Montreal tournament has been badly affected this week by rain. Some of the players have shown that they aren't interested in this tournament and the prospect of playing more than 1 match a day could mean they just want to put this week behind them. Please be careful!
WTA Toronto
Navarro 1.53 v Townsend
Due to start at 3 pm
Townsend 1-0 (May 2019, clay, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Navarro.
Navarro had a straight sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kostyuk in the 3rd round. She reached the 4th round in Miami. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in San Diego. 3rd round in Doha. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland. Semis in San Diego.
Townsend lost in the qual rounds. As lucky loser, she beat Yastremska who retired in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round over Stakusic. She lost 3 games to Ostapenko in the 3rd round. 3rd round in Miami. 3rd round in Guadalajara.
12 month WTA hard stats are better for Townsend on serve. 2024 stats also favour her on serve. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Navarro. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Navarro around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Toronto
Pegula 1.33 v Stearns
Due to start at midnight
Pegula 1-0 (Aug 2023, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are stronger for Pegula.
Pegula won the title last season. 2 sets win over Pliskova in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Krueger in the 3rd round. Q finals in Miami. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide. Title in Seoul. Final in Tokyo. 4th round at the US Open.
Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara in Sep. 2nd round of the US Open.
Stearns beat Blinkova in 2 sets in the 1st round. In the 2nd round, Keys retired. She reached 4 WTA 2nd rounds this season. 4th round at the US Open.
12 and 2024 WTA stats are stronger for Pegula.
Back Pegula above 1.85 and remove liability at 1.40.
9th August
We saw yesterday that it isn't easy to assess a player's motivation in this tournament. We never know which tournaments they are favouring to finish their preparation for the US Open. Many have not played on hard since March.
Be careful with stake size.
WTA Toronto
Anisimova v Kalinskaya 1.88
Due to start at 5:30 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Anisimova in the last year but they are even in 2024.
Anisimova beat Dolehide in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kasatkina in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals last week. 4th round of the Aus Open.
Kalinskaya had a 2 sets win in the 1st round. has an easy win over Tsurenko in the 2nd round. She reached the 4th round in Miami. Final in Dubai. Q finals of the Aus Open. Q finals in Osaka and 2nd round of the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Kalinskaya on serve. Return stats are pretty even with a slight edge to Anisimova. Stats in 2024 are better for Kalinskaya overall.
Lay Anisimova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Good chance of 3 sets.
WTA Toronto
Mertens v Samsonova 1.79
Due to start at 10 pm
Samsonova 1-0 (Aug 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Mertens.
Mertens lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win over Volynets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Osaka in the 2nd round. 4th round in Indian Wells. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Final in Hobart. Title in Monastir in Oct. 3rd round at the US Open.
Samsonova reached the final last season. She struggled against Uchijima in the early part of their 2nd round match but avoided being broken and controlled the match after that. She retired from Washington last week. 3rd round in Dubai. Semis in Abu Dhabi. Final in Beijing in Oct. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Samsonova on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Mertens. WTA stats in 2024 and stronger for Mertens overall.
Lay Samsonova around 1.50 and remove liability at 1.90. Lay set 1 winner.
8th August
WTA Toronto
Tsurenko v Kalinskaya 1.32
Due to start at 4 pm
Tsurenko 1-0 (Feb 2023, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Kalinskaya.
Tsurenko beat Andreescu in 3 sets as underdog. She reached the 3rd round in Doha. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Semis in Monastir and q finals in Zhengzhou in Oct. 2nd round of the US Open.
Kalinskaya had a 2 sets win in the 1st round. She reached the 4th round in Miami. Final in Dubai. Q finals of the Aus Open. Q finals in Osaka and 2nd round of the US Open.
2024 stats are better for Kalinskaya.
Back Kalinskaya around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.45.
WTA Toronto
Badosa 1.61 v Ostapenko
Due to start at 10 pm
H2H 2-2. Most recent May 2023, clay, Ostapenko. Badosa won on hard in Jan 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are even.
Badosa had an easy win over Tauson in the 1st round. She won the title in Washington last week. 3rd round at the Aus Open.
Ostapenko lost in the 1st round last season. 3rd round in Dubai. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Adelaide. Q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in Beijing. Q finals of the US Open.
12 month and 2024 stats are better for Badosa. Ostapenko is hard to predict recently.
Back Badosa around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.55.
7th August
WTA Toronto
Haddad Maia v Bouzkova 1.77
Due to start at 4 pm
Maia 3-0. Most recent June 2023, grass, 3rd set tie break. She won on hard in 2023 and 2022 and won in 3 sets. She lost the 1st set in all their matches. Hard win %'s in the last 12 months are better for Bouzkova.
Maia reached the 2nd round last season. Semis in Abu Dhabi. 3rd round at the Aus Open.
Bouzkova reached the 3rd round last year. She reached the final in Washington last week. Q finals in Auckland in Jan. Final in Nanchang in Oct. She reached the q finals in Cinci in 2023 (Cinci is played next week).
It is very possible that Bouzkova will want some rest before Cinci and she picked up a lot of ranking points last week.
WTA stats in 2024 are better for Maia on serve and predicted holds favour her.
Lay Bouzkova around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.00.
WTA Toronto
Dolehide v Anisimova 1.62
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Anisimova 2-1. Most recent Aug 2024, hard, Dolehide in 2. Anisimova won on clay in 2020, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Anisimova.
Dolehide reached the semis last week. 3rd round in Indian Wells. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Final in Guadalajara in Sep.
Anisimova reached the q finals last week. 4th round of the Aus Open.
WTA stats in 2024 are stronger for Anisimova. Good chance of 3 sets. Recent performances are a little better for Dolehide.
Lay Anisimova around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.
6th August
WTA Toronto
Wang 1.83 v Kenin
Due to start at 5:30 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent Mar 2019, hard, Kenin in 3 sets. Wang won on hard in 2019, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Wang.
Wang has come through the qual rounds without losing a set. CH semi in March. Q finals in Austin. Semis in Hua Hin. 3rd round of the Aus Open. 2nd round of the US Open.
Kenin has won 1 of 10 matches on hard in 2024. Semis in Guadalajara and final in San Diego in Sep.
Back Wang around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
WTA Toronto
Azarenka 1.44 v Pavlyuchenkova
Due to start at 7 pm
Azarenka 6-3. Most recent Feb 2023, hard, Azarenka in 2. Pavlyuchenkova won on clay in June 2021, 3 sets. 2 of Pavlyuchenkova's wins were by retirement and walkover. Hard win %'s are close but favour Azarenka.
Azarenka reached the 2nd round last year. Q finals in Washington. Semis in Miami. Q finals in Doha. 4th round of the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara in Sep. 2nd round of the US Open.
Pavlyuchenkova reached the 4th round in Indian Wells. Semis in Doha. Q finals in Adelaide. Q finals in Hong Kong and Semis in Tokyo.
WTA hard stats in 2024 are stronger for Azarenka.
Back Azarenka around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Azarenka if she loses set 1.
5th August
The ATP and WTA tournaments in Canada start on Tuesday. Today's suggested trades will be from the final rounds of qualifying for those tournaments. Those matches start at 4 pm.
WTA Toronto qualifying
Pera 1.57 v Hibino
Due to start at 4 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2024, clay, Pera in 2. Hibino won on grass in 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are quite even.
Pera needed 3 sets in the previous qual round as 1.20 favourite. 2nd round in Indian Wells as qualifier. 2nd round in Adelaide as lucky loser. 3rd round at the US Open.
Hibino needed 3 sets as favourite in the previous qual round. 2nd round in Indian Wells as qualifier. 2nd round in Dubai as qualifier. 2nd round in Hua Hin. CH q final in Jan. Q finals in Nanchang in Oct. Title in Prague in Aug 2023.
Hard stats in 2024 on all tours favour Hibino overall. 12 month stats also favour her. 12 month WTA stats are stronger for Hibino.
Lay Pera around 1.35 to 1.40 and remove liability at 1.85. Good chance of 3 sets.
WTA Toronto qualifying
Dart 1.44 v Chirico
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Chirico 1-0 (Sep 2013, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for dart.
Dart beat Montgomery in 2 sets in the previous qual round. She reached a CH final in Jan. ITF finals in Nov and Oct.
Chirico beat Rodionova in 2 sets as underdog in the previous qual round. ITF q final in Oct.
Hard stats in 2024 on all tours are stronger for Dart overall.
Back Dart around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.
4th August
ATP Paris Olympics
Djokovic v Alcaraz 1.41
Due to start at 1 pm
H2H 3-3. Most recent July 2024, grass, Alcaraz in straight sets. Djokovic won indoors in Nov 2023, 2 sets. Djokovic won on clay at the French Open in 2023, 4 sets. Alcaraz won on clay in May 2022, 3rd set tie break. Clay win %'s are even.
Djokovic lost just 1 game in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Nadal in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Koepfer in the 3rd round. He beat Tsitsipas in 2 close sets in the q final. 2 sets win over Musetti in the semi final. He reached the q finals of the French Open. Semis in Geneva. Semis in Monte Carlo. He won the French Open title in 2023.
Alcaraz had an easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Griekspoor in the 2nd round. Easy win over Safiullin in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Paul in the q final. Very easy win over Aliassime in the semis. He won the title at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid. Semis in Buenos Aires.
ATP stats in the last 3 months are better for Alcaraz.
Back Alcaraz around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Alcaraz if he loses set 1.
WTA Washington
Bouzkova v Badosa 1.58
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Badosa 2-0. Most recent March 2022, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2017. Hard win %'s are even.
Bouzkova beat Kessler in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Townsend in 2 tight sets in the 2nd round. Easy win over Montgomery in the q final. 3 sets win over Sabalenka in the semi final. She reached the 2nd rounds in Indian Wells, Doha and Hobart. Q finals in Auckland. Final in Nanchang and q finals in Seoul in Oct. 3rd round at the US Open.
Badosa beat Kenin in 2 sets in the 1st round. In the 2nd round, Samsonova retired after set 1. 3 sets win over Raducanu in the q final. 2 sets win over Dolehide in the semi final. She reached the 3rd round at the Aus Open. She reached 3 WTA hard 2nd rounds in 2024.
WTA stats in 2024 favour Badosa on serve. Return stats are quite even.
Back Badosa around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
3rd August
WTA Paris Olympics
Zheng 1.49 v Vekic
Due to start at 2:30pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent Oct 2023, indoor, Zheng in 3. Vekic won indoors in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Zheng.
Zheng didn't lose a game to Errani in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Rus in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round against Navarro, she was 3 times down by a set and a break but recovered to take set 2 in a tie break. She easily won set 3. 3rd set tie break win over Kerber in the q final. 2 sets win over Swiatek in the semis. She won the title in Palermo. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Vekic beat Bronzetti in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Andreescu in the 2nd round. She beat Gauff in 2 sets as huge underdog in the 3rd round. She beat Kostyuk in a 3rd set tie break in the q final. 2 sets win over Schmiedlova in the semi final. She reached the 3rd round at the French Open.
3 month stats and stats in 2024 are stronger for Zheng.
Back Zheng around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Zheng if she loses set 1.
WTA Washington
Badosa 1.35 v Dolehide
Due to start at 7:30 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Badosa beat Kenin in 2 sets in the 1st round. In the 2nd round, Samsonova retired after set 1. 3 sets win over Raducanu in the q final. She reached the 3rd round at the Aus Open. She reached 3 WTA hard 2nd rounds in 2024.
Dolehide beat Tsurenko in 3 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Kasatkina in the 2nd round. Kasatkina hit 14 d faults and was broken 8 times. Dolehide didn't serve well either. She beat an injured Anisimova in the q final. She reached the 3rd round in Indian Wells. 2nd round of the Aus Open. Final in Guadalajara in Sep.
WTA stats in 2024 are stronger for Badosa on serve. Return stats are even. Stats fir the tournament favour Badosa on serve.
Back Badosa around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.
2nd August
ATP Paris Olympics
Djokovic 1.48 v Musetti
Due to start at 6 pm
Djokovic 6-1. Most recent July 2024, grass, Djokovic in straight sets. He won their last 2 on clay. At the French Open he won in 5 sets. Musetti won on clay in Apr 2023, 3 sets. Their other match at the French Open was in 2021 and Musetti retired in the 5th set. Clay win %'s are better for Djokovic.
Djokovic lost just 1 game in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Nadal in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Koepfer in the 3rd round. He beat Tsitsipas in 2 close sets in the q final. He reached the q finals of the French Open. Semis in Geneva. Semis in Monte Carlo. He won the French Open title in 2023.
Musetti beat Monfils in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Navone in the 2nd round. He beat a tired Fritz in the 3rd round in 2 sets. 2 sets win over Zverev as huge underdog in the q final. He reached the final in Umag this month. 3rd round of the French Open. 2 CH finals in May. 3rd round in Monte Carlo.
3 month and 2024 stats are better for Djokovic overall. Musetti has taken Djokovic to a 5th set both times that they met at Roland Garros.
Back Djokovic around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50. Back Djokovic if he loses set 1.
WTA Washington
Montgomery v Bouzkova 1.54
Due to start at 9 pm
1st meeting. 12 month hard win %'s are even. Montgomery leads in 2024.
Montgomery beat Rogers in 2 sets in the 1st round. She had a walkover in the 2nd round with Jabeur withdrew. She reached a CH q final in Feb.
Bouzkova beat Kessler in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Townsend in 2 tight sets in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd rounds in Indian Wells, Doha and Hobart. Q finals in Auckland. Final in Nanchang and q finals in Seoul in Oct. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are stronger for Bouzkova. Stats in 2024 favour Montgomery on serve. Bouzkova was much better on return and predicted holds favour her.
Back Bouzkova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
1st August
WTA Washington
Wang v Azarenka 1.28
Due to start at 6 pm
1st meeting. 12 month hard win %'s are even.
Wang beat Pliskova in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She reached the q finals in Austin in March. Semis in Hua Hin. 3rd round at the Aus Open. 2nd round at the US Open.
Azarenka lost in the 1st round to Svitolina last season. 2 tie breaks win over Baptiste in the 1st round. Semis in Miami. Q finals in Doha. 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara in Sep.
12 month WTA stats are better for Azarenka. 2024 stats favour Azarenka.
Lay Azarenka around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.50. Back Azarenka around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.50.
WTA Paris Olympics
Schmiedlova v Vekic 1.53
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Vekic 1-0 (Oct 2018, indoor, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are close but favour Schmiedlova.
Schmiedlova had an easy win over Boulter in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Haddad Maia in the 2nd round. She beat Paolini in 3 sets in the 3rd round. Paolini was a break ahead in the 3rd set 3 times and served for the match. 2 sets win over Krejcikova as huge underdog. She reached the semis in Budapest in July. CH title in May.
Vekic beat Bronzetti in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Andreescu in the 2nd round. She beat Gauff in 2 sets as huge underdog in the 3rd round. She beat Kostyuk in a 3rd set tie break in the q final. She reached the 3rd round at the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats favour Vekic on serve. Return stats are close but favour Schmiedlova. In the last 3 months predicted holds favour Vekic.
Schmiedlova is having an amazing tournament. Paolini and Krejcikova are top 10 players. Vekic took out the 2nd ranked player in the world, Cori Gauff in straight sets.
Lay Vekic around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner. Slight edge to Vekic.
31st July
ATP Paris Olympics
Ruud 1.55 v Cerundolo
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Cerundolo 3-2. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Cerundolo in 2. Ruud won on clay in May 2023, 2 sets. Cerundolo won on clay in Apr 2023 and July 2022, 2 and 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Ruud.
Ruud had a 2 sets win in the 1st round. He needed 3 sets in the 2nd round as 1.08 favourite. He reached the semis at the French Open. Title in Geneva. 4th round in Madrid. Title in Barcelona. Final in Monte Carlo. Semis in Estoril.
Cerundolo had an easy win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Humbert in the 2nd round. He won the title last week. Q finals in Hamburg. 4th round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid. Semis in Rio.
2024 ATP stats are better for Ruud on serve. Predicted holds favour him. 3 month stats favour him on serve but predicted holds favour Cerundolo.
This should be really close. Lay Ruud around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Washington
Raducanu 1.38 v Stearns
Due to start at 7 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Raducanu.
Raducanu beat Mertens in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 3rd round in Indian Wells. 2nd round at the Aus Open.
Stearns reached the 2nd round as lucky loser last season. 2 sets win in the 1st round as favourite. She faced 1 bp and was broken. 2nd round in Miami, Indian Wells and Dubai. 4th round at the US Open.
2024 hard stats are stronger for Raducanu.
Back Raducanu around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
30th July
WTA Paris Olympics
Navarro v Zheng 1.62
Due to start at 11 am
H2H 1-1. Most recent July 2023, clay, Zheng in 2. Navarro won on clay in June 2019, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Zheng.
Navarro had a very easy win in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets against Tomova in the 2nd round. She reached the 4th round at the French Open. CH final and q final in May.
Zheng didn't lose a game to Errani in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Rus in the 2nd round. She won the title in Palermo. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
12 month WTA stats are better for Zheng. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Zheng around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
ATP Paris Olympics
Struff 1.49 v Moutet
Due to start at 2 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Struff in 2. Moutet won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Struff.
Struff had an easy win over Cabral in the 1st round. He reached the semis in Gstaad this month. 3rd round at the French Open. 4th round in Madrid. Title in Munich. 3rd round in Monte Carlo.
Moutet beat Nagal in 3 sets in the 1st round. He reached the 4th round at the French Open. Q finals in Bucharest. Semis in Santiago.
12 and 3 month stats favour Struff on serve. Predicted holds also favour him.
Back Struff around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
29th July
WTA Paris Olympics
Haddad Maia 1.41 v Schmiedlova
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Maia 1-0 (Apr 2019, clay, 2 tie breaks). Clay win %'s are quite even.
Maia needed 3 sets against Gracheva in the 1st round. She reached the q finals in Madrid. Semis at the French Open in 2023.
Schmiedlova had an easy win over Boulter in the 1st round. She reached the semis in Budapest in July. CH title in May.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Maia.
Back Haddad Maia around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.45.
WTA Paris Olympics
Pegula v Svitolina 1.92
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Pegula 4-1. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Pegula in 3. All their matches were on hard. Pegula won their last 4 matches. Clay win %'s are better for Pegula.
Pegula reached the semis in Charleston. She reached the 3rd round of the French Open in 2023.
Svitolina reached the 4th round of the French Open. 4th round in Rome.
12 month WTA stats are better for Pegula on serve and favour Svitolina on return. Svitolina has played well more recently on clay including a 4th round on the courts they are playing on this week.
Lay Pegula around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
28th July
ATP Paris Olympics
Tabilo 1.50 v Safiullin
Due to start at 2 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Tabilo.
Tabilo reached the semis in Rome. Semis in Bucharest. Final in Santiago.
Safiullin reached a CH semi in May. He has had some tough draws this season.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Tabilo.
Back Tabilo around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Paris Olympics
Frech v Tomova 1.96
Due to start at 5 pm
Frech 4-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Frech in 2. She won their last 4 matches. Clay win %'s are quite even.
Frech reached the final in Prague. 2nd rounds in Strasbourg and Rome.
Tomova reached the q finals in Prague. CH final in June. 2nd round of the French Open. Semis in Rabat.
12 and 3 month stats favour Tomova.
Lay Frech around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets.
27th July
WTA Paris Olympics
Cocciaretto v Shnaider 1.54
Due to start at 12:30 (but there are rain delays)
Cocciaretto 3-0. Most recent June 2024, grass, 3 sets. She won on clay in March 2022, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Shnaider.
Cocciaretto reached the 4th round at the French Open. Q finals in Rabat.
Shnaider won the title in Budapest. CH title in May. 3rd round in Rome.
3 month WTA stats are better for Shnaider.
Back Shnaider around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.
WTA Paris Olympics
Putintseva 1.74 v Kostyuk
Due to start at 2 pm (but there are rain delays)
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Putintseva.
Putintseva reached the 2nd round at the French Open. 3rd round in Rome. Q finals in Madrid.
Kostyuk reached the 2nd round at the French Open. Final in Stuttgart in April.
3 month stats are better for Putintseva.
Back Putintseva around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
26th July
WTA Prague
Linette 1.84 v Frech
Due to start at 10:30 am
Frech 1-0 (May 2022, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Linette.
Linette beat Barthel in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Masarova in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Tomova in the q final. She beat Noskova in a 3rd set tie break as underdog in the semis. She reached the q finals in Strasbourg in May. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid. Final in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston.
Frech beat Sharma in the 1st round in 3 sets. Her opponent in the 2nd round retired in set 3. In the q final, she beat Kalinina in 3 sets. In the semi final, Samson retired in the 3rd set. She reached the 2nd round in Strasbourg. 2nd round in Rome. CH q final in May.
12 month WTA stats are better for Linette on serve. 3 month stats are a little closer but also favour her on serve.
Back Linette around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. She has had to work hard for a lot of her service games this week and may make hard work of the win. Both players are going to the Olympics.
ATP Umag
Mensik v Musetti 1.56
Due to start at 6 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s in the last year are a little better for Mensik.
Mensik beat Popyrin as underdog in 2 sets in the 1st round. He beat Darderi in 2 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Tseng in the q final. He reached the 3rd round in Madrid. He only played 2 clay events in 2024.
Musetti had a straight sets win over Trungelliti in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Lajovic in the q final. He reached the 3rd round of the French Open. 3rd round in Monte Carlo.
3 month ATP stats are better for Musetti. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Back Musetti around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
Musetti is going to the Olympics.
25th July
WTA Prague
Frech 1.36 v Samson
Due to start at 10 am
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Samson.
Frech beat Sharma in the 1st round in 3 sets. Her opponent in the 2nd round retired in set 3. In the q final, she beat Kalinina in 3 sets. She reached the 2nd round in Strasbourg. 2nd round in Rome. CH q final in May.
Samson had an easy win in the 1st round as slight underdog. She easily lost the first set to Siniakova before Siniakova's level dropped. 3 sets win over Selekhmeteva as underdog. She reached the French Open juniors final. 2 ITF titles in May.
In Frech's match with Kalinina, She lost 5 games in a row to lose the 1st set. Then Kalinina tanked, winning just 1 more game. probably saving herself for the Olympics.
3 month WTA stats favour Frech. She has a lot more experience. Samson is only 16 and has a lot of potential. She can be competitive.
Frech is going to the Olympics so may not be interested.
Lay Frech around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Prague
Noskova 1.33 v Linette
Due to start at 11:30 am
Linette 1-0 (May 2023, clay, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are better for Linette.
Noskova had a straight sets win in the 1st round. In the 2nd round, Lys retired in set 2. Easy win over Seidel in the q final. She reached the 2nd round of the French Open. 3rd round in Rome.
Linette beat Barthel in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Masarova in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Tomova in the q final. She reached the q finals in Strasbourg in May. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid. Final in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston.
12 month WTA stats are better for Linette on serve. Return stats favour Noskova. 3 month stats favour Noskova overall. Good chance of 3 sets. Noskova is going to the Olympics so may not be interested today.
Lay Noskova around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Lay set 1 winner.
24th July
WTA Prague
Linette 1.83 v Tomova
Due to start at 10:30 am
Linette 3-0. Most recent Aug 2022, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in July 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s in the last year favour Linette.
Linette beat Barthel in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Masarova in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals in Strasbourg in May. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid. Final in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston.
Tomova had a straight sets win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Fett in the 2nd round. CH final in June. 2nd round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat.
12 and 3 month stats favour Linette on serve. Tomova leads on return and in the last 3 months, predicted holds favour Tomova. Very good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Tomova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.
WTA Iasi
Avanesyan 1.76 v Cristian
Due to start at 3 pm
Cristian 1-0 (May 2024, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Cristian.
Avanesyan had an easy win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Martic in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals last week. 4th round at the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Rouen.
Cristian had an easy win in the 1st round. She beat Ruse in 3 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals in Palermo. 3rd round in Rome and Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
12 month stats favour Cristian. 3 month stats favour Cristian on serve but strongly favour Avanesyan on return. Good chance of 3 sets. Recent performances are better for Cristian.
Lay Avanesyan around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.
23rd July
WTA Iasi
Boskovic v Lepchenko 1.83
Due to start at 11:30
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Lepchenko.
Boskovic lost in the qual rounds. She beat Timofeeva in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. ITF semi in July. CH 2nd round in June. Most of her matches were in ITF's.
Lepchenko has come through the qual rounds. She beat Trevisan in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. ITF final and q final in July. ITF final in June. CH q final in April.
12 month WTA stats favour Lepchenko. 12 and 3 month stats on all tours also favour her.
Back Lepchenko around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.70.
WTA Prague
Noskova 1.43 v Lys
Due to start at 2 pm
Noskova 1-0 (Mar 2022, indoor, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are better for Lys.
Noskova had a straight sets win in the 1st round. She reached the 2nd round of the French Open. 3rd round in Rome.
Lys had a 2 sets win in the 1st round. She reached the semis in Budapest last week. CH q final in June. CH 2nd round in April.
They are quite evenly matched. 3 month stats are better for Lys. I think she can take it to 3 sets.
Lay Noskova around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Lay set 1 winner.
22nd July
WTA Iasi
Boskovic v Timofeeva 1.55
Due to start at 12:00
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are pretty even.
Boskovic lost in the qual rounds. ITF semi in July. CH 2nd round in June. Most of her matches were in ITF's.
Timofeeva reached the 2nd round in Budapest She had won the title in Budapest in 2023.
12 month clay stats are better for Boskovic overall. 3 month stats are closer but favour Boskovic. Recent performances are better for Timofeeva.
Lay Timofeeva around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Iasi
Lepchenko v Trevisan 1.51
Due to start at 13:30
Trevisan 1-0 (Aug 2018, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Lepchenko.
Lepchenko has come through the qual rounds. ITF final and q final in July. ITF final in June. CH q final in April.
Trevisan won a CH title in July. CH q final in June. 2nd round in Rabat and Rouen.
12 and 3 month stats on all tours favour Lepchenko. Recent performances are better for Trevisan. She went through a period of poor form which she seems to have put behind her.
Lay Trevisan around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.
21st July
WTA Iasi
Bulgaru v Maria 1.90
Due to start at 4 pm
1st meeting. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Bulgaru.
CH 2nd rounds in July and June. CH q finals in Dec and Nov.
Maria reached the 2nd round in Rome and Madrid. Q finals in Bogota.
12 month WTA stats are better for Bulgaru. 3 month stats also favour her. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Maria around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Palermo
Zheng 1.69 v Muchova
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Muchova 1-0 (Apr 2022, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are even.
Zheng won the title last year. Easy win over Errani in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Martic. A very easy win over Cristian in the q final. 2 sets win over Parry in the semi final. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Muchova had a straight sets win in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets in the 2nd round against Noha. She needed 2 tie breaks against Sharma in the q final. She reached the French Open final in 2023. She had not played on clay since. She beat a disappointing Begu in 2 easy sets in the semis. She reached the q final in Eastbourne (grass) in June but withdrew.
Stats for the tournament favour Zheng on serve and Muchova on return. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Zheng around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
20th July
ATP Gstaad
Tsitsipas 1.68 v Berrettini
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Tsitsipas 5-1. Most recent Jan 2023, hard, Tsitsipas in 3. He won on clay in May 2021, 2 sets. Berrettini won on clay in an exhibition during Covid in 2020, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are fairly even but favour Berrettini.
Tsitsipas beat Medjedovic in 2 tight sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Fognini in the q final. He reached the q finals at the French Open. Q finals in Rome. Final in Barcelona. Title in Monte Carlo.
Berrettini beat Cachin in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Galan in the 2nd round. 2 tie break sets win over Aliassime in the q final. He won the title in Marrakech.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Berrettini overall. Very good chance of 3 sets. Tsitsipas has played stronger opponents in 2024.
Lay Tsitsipas around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95. Lay set 1 winner. Slight edge to Tsitsipas to win.
WTA Palermo
Zheng 1.30 v Parry
Due to start at 7 pm
Zheng 1-0 (July 2023, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Zheng.
Zheng won the title last year. Easy win over Errani in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Martic. A very easy win over Cristian in the q final. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Parry reached the 2nd round last year. She needed 3 sets in the 1st round this week against Gadecki. Another 3 setter against Teichmann in the 2nd round. She also needed 3 sets against Paquet in the q final. CH q final last year. 2nd round at the French Open. CH final and q final in Dec.
12 and 3 month WTA clay stats are better for Zheng. Parry was favourite in every round but needed 3 sets every time.
Back Zheng around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.
19th July
WTA Palermo
Begu 1.35 v Li
Due to start at 5 pm
Li 1-0 (Oct 2021, hard, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are close in the last 12 months.
Begu didn't lose a game in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Rus in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd round at the French Open. 4th round in Rome. CH final in March.
Li beat Stearns in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Andreeva in the 2nd round. She reached a CH final last week. CH title in June.
12 month WTA stats are better for Begu overall. Li has served well this week. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Begu around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Begu around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.
WTA Palermo
Zheng 1.39 v Cristian
Due to start at 7 pm
Cristian 2-0. Most recent July 2021, clay, 2 sets. Her other win was on clay in 2019. Clay win %'s favour Zheng.
Zheng won the title last year. Easy win over Errani in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Martic. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Cristian beat Riera in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bronzetti in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd rounds in Rome and Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
12 and 3 month stats favour Zheng.
Back Zheng around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.55.
18th July
WTA Budapest
Bondar 1.61 v Seidel
Due to start at 4:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Bondar.
Bondar reached the 2nd round last season. She beat Danilovic in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. ITF title in June. She reached a CH semi in Sep. Most of her best results are in ITF's.
Seidel lost in the qual rounds. In the 1st round, her opponent retired. ITF title in June. Limited clay success.
Back Bondar around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Palermo
Bronzetti v Cristian 1.89
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Cristian 3-0. Most recent July 2023, grass, 2 sets. Their other matches were on clay in 2021 and 2017. Clay win %'s are better for Cristian.
Bronzetti lost in the 1st round last year. 3 sets win over Jacquemot in the 1st round as favourite. She won a CH title last week. Q finals in Rabat.
Cristian beat Riera in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 3rd rounds in Rome and Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
12 month WTA stats are better for Cristian on serve. predicted holds favour her. 3 month stats also favour her.
Lay Bronzetti around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets.
17th July
WTA Budapest
Avanesyan 1.53 v Masarova
Due to start at 12:00
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Avanesyan.
Avanesyan reached the q finals last season. 2 sets win over Frech in the 1st round. 4th round at the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Rouen. Q finals in Lausanne.
Masarova had a straight sets win in the 1st round. She reached a CH final in April.
12 month WTA stats are better for Masarova on serve. 3 month stats also favour her on serve but strongly favour Avanesyan on return. Recent performances are much better for Avanesyan.
Back Avanesyan around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
WTA Palermo
Rus v Begu 1.49
Due to start at 4:30 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2013, hard, Begu in 2 sets. Rus won on grass in 2007, 2 sets. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Begu.
Rus lost in the first round last year. 3 sets win over Trevisan as underdog in the 1st round this week. ITF title in July. 2nd round of the French Open. Q final in Rouen. Title in Hamburg in July 2023.
Begu didn't lose a game in the 1st round. She reached the 3rd round at the French Open. 4th round in Rome. CH final in March.
12 month WTA clay stats are better for Begu. 3 month stats also favour her.
Rus has had really strong results on clay on the ITF tour. She has rarely been able to transfer that form to the main tour. However she did play well in the last round.
Lay Begu around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Back Begu if she loses set 1.
16th July
WTA Budapest
Wang v Todoni 1.94
Due to start at 12:00
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Todoni.
Wang reached a CH semi in June. 2nd round in Rabat. 2nd round in Madrid.
Todoni won a CH title in June. 2nd round in Bogota.
12 month WTA stats are better for Todoni. 3 month stats are fairly even. Good chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Todoni.
Lay Wang around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Palermo
Rus v Trevisan 1.87
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Trevisan 3-2. Most recent May 2022, clay, Trevisan in 2. Rus won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Rus.
Rus lost in the first round last year. ITF title in July. 2nd round of the French Open. Q final in Rouen. Title in Hamburg in July 2023.
Trevisan lost in the 1st round last season. She won a CH title last week. CH q final in June. 2nd rounds in Rabat and Rouen.
12 month WTA stats are better for Rus on serve. Predicted holds favour her. 12 month stats on all tours favour Rus. 3 month stats on all tours favour Rus overall.
Lay Trevisan around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
15th July
WTA Budapest
Sasnovich v Tomova 1.57
Due to start at 1:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Tomova.
Sasnovich reached the 3rd round in Rome as qualifier.
Tomova reached a CH final in June. 2nd round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat.
WTA 12 month stats are better for Tomova on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Sasnovich.
Back Tomova around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.
WTA Palermo
Blinkova 1.68 v Sharma
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Sharma 1-0 (Sep 2020, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Sharma.
Blinkova reached the 2nd round of the French Open. 2nd round in Rome.
Sharma reached the q finals in Charleston. CH title in Sep.
12 month clay stats are better for Sharma on serve. return stats are better for Blinkova. predicted holds favour Sharma.
Lay Blinkova around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.95. Fait chance of 3 sets. Value on Sharma.
14th July
WTA Challenger Bastad #Carried over from yesterday#
Trevisan 1.90 v Li
Due to start at 9:30 am
H2H 1-1. Most recent June 2024, clay, Li in 3. Trevisan won on clay in 2024, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Li.
Trevisan beat Sharma in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bulgaru in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Parry as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over Chirico in the semis. She reached a CH q final in June. 2nd round in Rabat in May. 2nd round in Rouen in April. Q finals in Hamburg in July 2023.
Li had an easy win over Sramkova as underdog in the 1st round. Another 2 sets win in the 2nd round over Rakhimova. 2 sets win over Kawa in the q final. 2 sets win over Diaz in the semi final. She won a CH title in June. ITF q final in June. ITF semi and q final in May.
CH stats are better for Li. Clay stats on all tours are better for Li.
Lay Trevisan around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Good chance of 3 sets. I favour Li to win.
ATP Wimbledon
Alcaraz 1.76 v Djokovic
Due to start at 2 pm
Djokovic 3-2. Most recent Nov 2023, indoors, Djokovic in 2. He won on hard in Aug 2023, 3rd set tie break. Alcaraz won in the Wimbledon final last season, 5 sets. Their other matches were on clay. Grass win %'s are fairly even.
Alcaraz won the title last year. This year he had a straight sets win in the 1st and 2nd rounds. He did not serve well in the 3rd round against Tiafoe and needed 5 sets. 4 sets win over Humbert in the 4th round. 4 sets win over Paul in the q final. In the semi final, Alcaraz was struggling on serve and lost the 1st set to Medvedev. After that, he sorted out his 1st serve and was more in control for the rest of the match. He won in 4 sets.
Djokovic had knee surgery 4 weeks ago. He had a straight sets win in the 1st round. He dropped a set to Fearnley in the 2nd round. It was the 3rd set when he was 2 sets up. This isn't unusual in best of 5 sets matches when the leading player tries to cruise through set 3 to conserve energy. He lost the opening set to Popyrin in the 3rd round but won in 4 sets. Straight sets win over Rune in the 4th round. He had a walkover in the q final when De Minaur withdrew. Fairly straight forward win over Musetti in the semi final.
12 month grass stats favour Djokovic. 2024 stats also favour him.
They played 5 sets last year. It won't be a surprise if we see 5 sets again today.
Lay Alcaraz around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95. Lay set 1 winner. Value on Djokovic.
Lasi Challenger
Dellien 1.76 v Cosano
Due to start at 5 pm
Cosano 1-0 (July 2019, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are a little better for Cosano.
Dellien has been favourite in every round. He dropped sets in the 1st round and q final. CH semi in April. CH q final in March.
Cosano has not lost a set. He was underdog in the semi final. CH q final in May. CH semi in April. CH title in Feb.
12 month CH stats are better for Dellien. 3 month stats are more even. Dellien had a recent injury issue and retired from a CH 2nd round in June. Stats for the tournament are a little better for Cosano. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Dellien around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95.
13th July
WTA Challenger Bastad
Trevisan 1.90 v Li
Due to start at 1 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent June 2024, clay, Li in 3. Trevisan won on clay in 2024, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Li.
Trevisan beat Sharma in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bulgaru in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Parry as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over Chirico in the semis. She reached a CH q final in June. 2nd round in Rabat in May. 2nd round in Rouen in April. Q finals in Hamburg in July 2023.
Li had an easy win over Sramkova as underdog in the 1st round. Another 2 sets win in the 2nd round over Rakhimova. 2 sets win over Kawa in the q final. 2 sets win over Diaz in the semi final. She won a CH title in June. ITF q final in June. ITF semi and q final in May.
CH stats are better for Li. Clay stats on all tours are better for Li.
Lay Trevisan around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Good chance of 3 sets. I favour Li to win.
WTA Wimbledon
Krejcikova 1.78 v Paolini
Due to start at 2 pm
Krejcikova 1-0 (Jan 2018, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are pretty even in the last year.
Krejcikova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Kudermetova in 3 very tight sets in the 1st round. She was broken 5 times from 19 bp's. She needed 2 tie breaks to beat Volynets in the 2nd round. Her opponent retired in the 3rd round. In the 4th round, she beat Collins in 2 sets as underdog. 2 sets win over Ostapenko in the q final. Ostapenko didn't serve well. 3 sets win over Rybakina in the semi final. Q finals in Birmingham.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Minnen in the 2nd round. She beat Andreescu in the 3rd round in 2 sets. She was 2-5 down in the 3rd set against Keys in the fourth round when Keys got injured and retired at 5-5. In the q final, she beat Navarro really easily. Navarro had played really well in the previous round to beat Gauff in 2 sets. She beat Vekic in a 3rd set tie break in the semi final. Paolini has a poor grass record but has improved her game immensely in the last year or so and reached the semis in Eastbourne.
12 month grass stats are better for Krejcikova on serve and favour Paolini on return.
Paolini started poorly in the semi final. The occasion seemed to get to her. She started to improve after she went a set behind. Krejcikova has served well in the last 3 rounds. She won the French Open title in 2021 so is perhaps better placed to handle the occasion. Very good chance of 3 sets.
Back Krejcikova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
12th July
ATP Wimbledon
Medvedev v Alcaraz 1.33
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Alcaraz 4-2. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Alcaraz in 2. He won indoors in Nov 2023, 2 sets. Med won on hard in Sep 2023, 4 sets. Alcaraz won on grass in the Wimbledon semis last year, straight sets. Grass win %'s are better for Alcaraz.
Medvedev reached the semis last year. Easy win over Kovacevic in the 1st round. Medvedev made hard work of his 4 sets win over Muller. He was a set and 0-3 behind. He was broken twice in 4 sets. 4 sets win over Struff in the 3rd round. In the 4th round, Dimitrov retired in the 1st set. 5 sets win over Sinner in the q final.
Alcaraz won the title last year. This year he had a straight sets win in the 1st and 2nd rounds. He did not serve well in the 3rd round against Tiafoe and needed 5 sets. 4 sets win over Humbert in the 4th round. 4 sets win over Paul in the q final.
12 month grass stats are better for Medvedev on serve but strongly favour Alcaraz on return. Medvedev's serve can keep this tight.
Lay Alcaraz around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Alcaraz around 1.90 to 2.10. Lay set 1 winner. 4 or 5 sets.
ATP Wimbledon
Musetti v Djokovic 1.14
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Djokovic 5-1. Most recent June 2024, clay, Djokovic in 5. He won on clay in 2024, 2 sets. Musetti won on clay in 2023, 3 sets. Grass win %'s are close in the last year.
Musetti reached the 3rd round last season. 4 sets win over Lestienne in the 1st round. 5 sets win over Darderi in the 2nd round. 4 sets win over Comesana in the 3rd round. 4 sets win over Perricard in the 4th round. He beat Fritz in 5 sets in the q final as huge underdog. Semis in Stuttgart and final at Queens Club.
Djokovic had knee surgery 4 weeks ago. He had a straight sets win in the 1st round. He dropped a set to Fearnley in the 2nd round. It was the 3rd set when he was 2 sets up. This isn't unusual in best of 5 sets matches when the leading player tries to cruise through set 3 to conserve energy. He lost the opening set to Popyrin in the 3rd round but won in 4 sets. Straight sets win over Rune in the 4th round. He had a walkover in the q final when De Minaur withdrew.
In the 3rd and 4th rounds Musetti was broken a total on one time. In his other matches. In the q final he was broken just 4 times in 5 sets but by Fritz who is weak on return. His serve will come under a lot of pressure today.
We can try a lay of Djokovic and remove liability at 1.25. Back Djokovic if he loses set 1.
11th July
WTA Wimbledon
Vekic v Paolini 1.63
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Paolini 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Paolini in 2. Vekic won indoors in 2021, 2 sets. Paolini won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. Grass win %'s are better for Paolini in the last year.
Vekic reached the 3rd round last year. She needed 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Andreeva in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. She beat Badosa in 3 sets in the 4th round. She beat Sun in 3 sets in the q final. Final in Bad Homburg in June. 2nd rounds in Berlin and Hertogenbosch.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Minnen in the 2nd round. She beat Andreescu in the 3rd round in 2 sets. She was 2-5 down in the 3rd set against Keys in the fourth round when Keys got injured and retired at 5-5. In the q final, she beat Navarro really easily. Navarro had played really well in the previous round to beat Gauff in 2 sets. Paolini has a poor grass record but has improved her game immensely in the last year or so and reached the semis in Eastbourne.
12 month grass stats are better for Paolini overall. Decent chance of 3 sets and both players are likely to hit by nerves if they take the lead.
Back Paolini around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
WTA Wimbledon
Krejcikova v Rybakina 1.23
Due to start at 3 pm
Krejcikova 2-0. Most recent Oct 2022, indoor, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2021, 3 sets. Long term grass win %'s are better for Rybakina but they are more even in the last year.
Krejcikova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Kudermetova in 3 very tight sets in the 1st round. She was broken 5 times from 19 bp's. She needed 2 tie breaks to beat Volynets in the 2nd round. Her opponent retired in the 3rd round. In the 4th round, she beat Collins in 2 sets as underdog. 2 sets win over Ostapenko in the q final. Ostapenko didn't serve well. Q finals in Birmingham.
Rybakina reached the q finals last year. Started slowly against Ruse but won easily in 2 sets. She needed 3 sets against Siegemund in the 2nd round. She lost just 1 game to Wozniacki in the 3rd round. In the 4th round, Kalinskaya retired in set 2. 2 sets win over Svitolina in the q final. She reached the q finals in Berlin but retired when she felt ill.
12 month grass stats are better for Rybakina. Krejcikova serve really well in the q final but got tight when serving for the match and was broken. She will get tight if she takes the lead in sets today. Rybakina has struggled on serve at the start of matches quite often recently.
Lay Rybakina and remove liability at 1.55. Back Rybakina around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.45.
10th July
WTA Wimbledon
Ostapenko 1.50 v Krejcikova
Due to start at 1 pm
Ostapenko 5-2. Most recent June 2023, grass, Ostapenko in 2. She won their last 3 matches. Long term grass win %'s are better for Ostapenko. They are even in the last year.
Ostapenko reached the 2nd round last season. Easy win over Tomljanovic in the 1st round. Another easy win in the 2nd round. Easy 2 sets win over Pera in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over a disappointing Putintseva in the 4th round. 2nd round in Eastbourne.
Krejcikova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Kudermetova in 3 very tight sets in the 1st round. She was broken 5 times from 19 bp's. She needed 2 tie breaks to beat Volynets in the 2nd round. Her opponent retired in the 3rd round. In the 4th round, she beat Collins in 2 sets as underdog. Q finals in Birmingham.
12 month grass stats are close on serve and strongly favour Ostapenko on return.
Lay Ostapenko around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Back Ostapenko around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.
ATP Wimbledon
De Minaur v Djokovic 1.35 ##De Minaur Withdrew
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Djokovic 2-1. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Djokovic in 2. De Minaur won on hard in 2024, 2 sets. Djokovic won on hard in Jan 2023, straight sets.
Long term grass win %'s are better for Djokovic. They are even in the last year.
De Minaur reached the 2nd round last season. 3 tie breaks win over Duckworth in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Munar in the 2nd round. Walkover in the 3rd round when Pouille withdrew. 4 sets win over Fils in the 4th round. He won the title in Hertogenbosch.
Djokovic had knee surgery 4 weeks ago. He had a straight sets win in the 1st round. He dropped a set to Fearnley in the 2nd round. It was the 3rd set when he was 2 sets up. This isn't unusual in best of 5 sets matches when the leading player tries to cruise through set 3 to conserve energy. He lost the opening set to Popyrin in the 3rd round but won in 4 sets. Straight sets win over Rune in the 4th round.
This could be a tight match. Grass stats favour Djokovic on serve but favour De Minaur on return. Djokovic has held 95% of his service games.
Lay Djokovic around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Djokovic around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50. 4 sets.
ATP Wimbledon
Musetti v Fritz 1.25
Due to start at 3 pm
Fritz 2-1. Most recent April 2024, clay, 2 sets. Fritz won indoors in 2022, 2 sets. He won on grass at Wimbledon 2022, straight sets. Grass win %'s are close but favour Fritz.
Musetti reached the 3rd round last season. 4 sets win over Lestienne in the 1st round. 5 sets win over Darderi in the 2nd round. 4 sets win over Comesana in the 3rd round. 4 sets win over Perricard in the 4th round. Semis in Stuttgart and final at Queens Club.
Fritz reached the 2nd round last year. Easy win in the 1st round over O'Connell. 4 sets win over Rinderknech in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Tabilo in the 3rd round. He beat Zverev in 5 sets in the 4th round. He won the title in Eastbourne. Q finals at Queens Club.
12 month grass stats are stronger for Fritz on serve and favour Musetti on return.
Lay Fritz and remove liability at 1.45. Back Fritz if he loses set 1. 4 sets.
9th July
WTA Wimbledon
Sun v Vekic 1.39
Due to start at 1 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are pretty even.
Sun has come through the qual rounds. She was favourite in every round. She beat Zheng as huge underdog in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Starodubtseva in the 2nd round. She beat Zhu in 2 tie breaks as slight underdog in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Raducanu in the 4th round.
Vekic reached the 3rd round last year. She needed 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Andreeva in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. She beat Badosa in 3 sets in the 4th round. Final in Bad Homburg in June. 2nd rounds in Berlin and Hertogenbosch.
Sun has played extremely well but has had some help from her opponents. Zheng served poorly. Against Zhu she faced a lot of bp's but was only broken twice. Raducanu started really poorly i the 4th round but took the 2nd set. She had an on going back issue during the match and then fell badly in the 3rd set.
Vekic has served extremely well. Only Badosa in the 4th round was able to break her 3 times. In her first 3 matches Vekic earned a lot of bp's.
I think this will be a great match. I give a slight edge to Vekic but she is price too low.
Lay Vekic around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Decent chance of 3 sets. As long as Vekic continues to serve well, she will win.
WTA Wimbledon
Paolini v Navarro 1.59
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Navarro 3-0. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, 3 sets. All their matches were on hard. The other 2 matches ended in 2 sets in 2024 and 2023. Grass win %'s in the last year are better for Paolini.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Minnen in the 2nd round. She beat Andreescu in the 3rd round in 2 sets. She was 2-5 down in the 3rd set against Keys in the fourth round when Keys got injured and retired at 5-5. Paolini has a poor grass record but has improved her game immensely in the last year or so and reached the semis in Eastbourne.
Navarro lost in the 1st round last season. Easy win in the 1st round. She beat Osaka in the 2nd round in 2 sets. 3 sets win over Shnaider in the 3rd round. She was a surprise straight sets winner over Gauff in the 4th round. Semis in Bad Homburg in June.
12 month grass stats are better for Navarro on serve. Stats for the tournament also favour her on serve. She played a superb match against Gauff in the last round. Her level is likely to drop in this match but I still think she will win. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Back Navarro around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Back Navarro if she loses set 1.
8th July
WTA Wimbledon
Svitolina 1.55 v Wang
Due to start at 2 pm
1st meeting. 12 month grass win %'s are even.
Svitolina reached the semis last season. She needed 3 sets against Linette in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Niemeier in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Jabeur in the 3rd round. She lost to Wozniacki in 3 tight sets in Bad Homburg.
Wang reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Tomova in 3 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Pegula in the 2nd round. Another 3 setter against Dart in the 3rd round. She had a couple of tough draws in 2024 facing Kasatkina and Jabeur.
12 month grass stats are better for Svitolina. Hard stats in 2024 also favour Svitolina.
Back Svitolina around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Wimbledon
Collins 1.53 v Krejcikova
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Krejcikova 1-0 (Sep 2023, hard, 3 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Krejcikova.
Collins reached the 2nd round last year. She had not played since the French Open in May. 2 sets win over Tauson in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Galfi in the 2nd round. Another 2 sets win over Haddad Maia in the 3rd round.
Krejcikova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Kudermetova in 3 very tight sets in the 1st round. She was broken 5 times from 19 bp's. She needed 2 tie breaks to beat Volynets in the 2nd round. Her opponent retired in the 3rd round. Q finals in Birmingham.
12 month grass stats are better for Krejcikova on serve but strongly favour Collins on return. Hard stats for 2024 are much better for Collins.
Back Collins around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets but I have to favour Collins to win.
7th July
WTA Wimbledon
Badosa 1.89 v Vekic
Due to start ?
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Badosa.
Badosa reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Muchova in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Fruhvirtova in the 2nd round. Tough 3 sets win over Kasatkina in the 3rd round. Q finals in Bad Homburg.
Vekic reached the 3rd round last year. She needed 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Andreeva in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. Final in Bad Homburg in June. 2nd rounds in Berlin and Hertogenbosch.
Badosa played a really strong match against Kasatkina. her serve stats weren't amazing but she was broken just 4 times in 3 sets. Vekic had 17 bp's against Yastremska. She broke her 5 times. She was only broken twice in 3 sets.
Lay Vekic around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets but i give Badosa the edge.
WTA Wimbledon
Navarro v Gauff 1.30
Due to start at 5 pm
Gauff 1-0 (Jan 2024, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are strong for both players but favour Gauff.
Navarro lost in the 1st round last season. Easy win in the 1st round. She beat Osaka in the 2nd round in 2 sets. 3 sets win over Shnaider in the 3rd round. Semis in Bad Homburg in June.
Gauff lost in the 1st round last season. Easy win over Dolehide in the 1st round this year. Another easy win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kartal in the 3rd round. Semis in Berlin in June.
Navarro's 2nd serve was below average against Shnaider but her 1st serve % was good. There were 12 breaks in their 3 sets. She didn't face a bp against Osaka which probably says more about Osaka than it does about Navarro.
Gauff has not been tested so far. She has been broken twice in 3 matches. That could be an issue for her if Navarro starts the match well.
Lay Gauff around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back Gauff around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55. Chance of 3 sets.
6th July
WTA Wimbledon
Krejcikova 1.47 v Maneiro
Due to start at 11 am
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are quite even.
Krejcikova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Kudermetova in 3 very tight sets in the 1st round. She was broken 5 times from 19 bp's. She needed 2 tie breaks to beat Volynets in the 2nd round. Q finals in Birmingham.
Maneiro lost in the 1st round as qualifier last year. She only played 2 grass events before this tournament. She beat defending champion Vondrousova in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bucsa in the 2nd round.
12 month grass stats are a little better for Maneiro but its a really small sample of matches. Hard stats in 2024 are much better for Krejcikova.
Back Krejcikova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Wimbledon
Jabeur 1.54 v Svitolina
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Svitolina 4-1. Most recent Oct 2021, hard, Jabeur in 2. Svitolina's last win was in 2019 on hard when Jabeur retired. Grass win %'s are better for Jabeur.
Jabeur reached the final last year. Easy win in the 1st and 2nd rounds. Q finals in Nottingham and Berlin. She retired from Berlin.
Svitolina reached the semis last season. She needed 3 sets against Linette in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Niemeier in the 2nd round. She lost to Wozniacki in 3 tight sets in Bad Homburg.
12 month grass stats are better for Jabeur. Hard stats in 2024 are better for Svitolina. Jabeur retired from Berlin in June and has not been tested so far. Svitolina should have beaten Linette in straight sets but lost the 2nd set in a tie break. At least she has had to "dig deep" in one of her matches. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Jabeur around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
5th July
WTA Wimbledon
Kasatkina 1.78 v Badosa
Due to start at 11 am
Kasatkina 3-2. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Badosa IN 2. Kasatkina won by walkover in 2023. She won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Grass win %'s are better for Kasatkina.
Kasatkina reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win in the 1st round over Zhang. She did not lose a game in the 2nd round. She won the title in Eastbourne.
Badosa reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Muchova in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Fruhvirtova in the 2nd round. Q finals in Bad Homburg.
12 month grass stats are better for Badosa on serve and favour Kasatkina on return. Hard stats in 2024 favour Badosa on serve and Kasatkina on return. Kasatkina has the higher ROI on grass.
Back Kasatkina around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Fair chance of 3 sets.
WTA Wimbledon
Paolini 1.86 v Andreescu
Due to start at 1 pm
Paolini 1-0 (June 2024, clay, 3 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Andreescu.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Minnen in the 2nd round. She has a poor grass record but has improved her game immensely in the last year or so and reached the semis in Eastbourne.
Andreescu reached the 3rd round last year. 2 sets win over Cristian in the 1st round. She won in 2 close sets over Noskova in the 2nd round. Final in Hertogenbosch.
12 month grass stats favour Andreescu on serve. Return stats and predicted holds are better for Paolini.
Back Paolini around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Good chance of 3 sets.
4th July
WTA Wimbledon
Osorio v Haddad Maia 1.56
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Maia 1-0 (May 2023, clay, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Maia.
Osorio lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win over Davis in the 1st round. She withdrew from the qual rounds in Eastbourne.
Maia reached the 4th round last season. She beat Frech in 2 close sets. 2nd round in Bad Homburg.
Grass stats in the last year favour Maia on serve. Hard stats in 2024 also favour Maia.
Back Maia around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
WTA Wimbledon
Collins 1.27 v Galfi
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Galfi 1-0 (March 2023, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Galfi.
Collins reached the 2nd round last year. She has not played since the French Open in May. 2 sets win over Tauson in the 1st round.
Galfi reached the 3rd round last season. She has come through the qual rounds this season. Easy win over Sherif in the 1st round. Semis in Hertogenbosch as qualifier.
12 month grass stats are better for Galfi. Hard stats in 2024 are better for Collins.
Lay Collins around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back Collins around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.
3rd July
WTA Wimbledon
Kartal 1.77 v Burel
Due to start at 11 am
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Kartal.
Kartal lost in the 1st round last year. This year she has come through the qual rounds. She beat Cirstea in 3 sets in the 1st round.
Burel lost in the qual rounds last season. 2 sets win over Lys as underdog. She took Siniakova to 3 sets in bad Homburg.
Grass stats in the last year are better for Kartal. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Kartal around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
WTA Wimbledon
Zhu v Pavlyuchenkova 1.42
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Zhu 1-0 (Sep 2014, hard, Pavlyuchenkova retired. Grass win %'s are a little better for Pavlyuchenkova.
Zhu lost to Swiatek in the 1st round last season. Easy win over Begu in the 1st round. 2nd round in Birmingham. She reached the semis in Birmingham in 2023.
Pavlyuchenkova has played 1 match on grass in the last year before this tournament. She beat Townsend in 2 sets in the 1st round. She lost to Linette in Eastbourne as favourite.
Grass stats in the last year favour Pavlyuchenkova on serve but its a really small sample size. Hard stats in 2024 are much better for Pav.
Back Pavlyuchenkova around 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.
2nd July
ATP Wimbledon
Etcheverry 1.63 v Nardi
Due to start at 11 am
Etcheverry 1-0 (Aug 2020, clay, 2 sets). Both have poor grass results.
Etcheverry reached the 2nd round last year. He lost his 2 grass matches in 2024 but performed well in both.
Nardi lost in the qual rounds. 2nd round in Hertogenbosch.
12 month grass stats are better for Etcheverry on serve. Return stats are better for Nardi. Same pattern in the hard stats for 2024.
Back Etcheverry around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. 4 sets.
WTA Wimbledon
Pera v Potapova 1.39
Due to start at 1 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2022, clay, Potapova in 3. Pera won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Grass win %'s favour Potapova.
Pera lost in the 1st round last year. CH final in June.
Potapova reached the 3rd round last season. Semis in Birmingham. She retired in Eastbourne.
12 month grass stats are better for Potapova. The retirement in Eastbourne was probably precautionary to be ready for this week.
Back Potapova around 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.
WTA Wimbledon
Jones v Martic 1.46
Due to start at 4:30 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are a little better for Martic.
Jones reached the q finals in Nottingham last month. She only had 1 win on grass before that tournament and that was in the Wimbledon juniors.
Martic reached the 3rd round last season. Her recent form has not been her best.
Not many grass matches to assess in the last year. WTA hard stats favour Martic on serve and Jones on return.
Lay Martic around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.
1st July
WTA Wimbledon
Minnen 1.58 v Watson
Due to start at 11 am
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Minnen.
Minnen lost in the 1st round as qualifier last year. Q finals in Hertogenbosch.
Watson lost to Krejcikova in the 1st round last season. 2nd round in Nottingham. She had reached the semis in Nottingham 2023.
Grass stats in the last 12 months favour Watson on serve and favour Minnen on return. Hard stats in 2024 also favour Watson on serve and Minnen on return. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Minnen around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.80. Lay set 1 winner. If Watson can get inspiration from the crowd she has a decent chance.
WTA Wimbledon
Rus v Yuan 1.50
Due to start at 1 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Yuan.
Rus lost in the qual rounds last year. She has not won a main draw WTA grass match since 2019.
Yuan lost to Azarenka in 3 sets in the 1st round last year as qualifier. She took Kasatkina to 3 sets last week. 2nd round in Hertogenbosch, beating Shnaider in 3 sets.
Back Yuan around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.
WTA Wimbledon
Badosa 1.90 v Muchova
Due to start at 5:30 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Badosa in 3. Muchova won on grass in 2021, 2 sets. Grass win %'s are close but favour Muchova.
Badosa reached the 2nd round last year. Q finals in Bad Homburg.
Muchova lost in the 1st round last season. Q finals in Eastbourne but she withdrew before the q final. That was the only tournament for her in 2024.
12 month grass stats are close but favour Badosa overall.
Chance of 3 sets if Muchova is healthy. Lay Muchova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.
30th June
No suggested trades today. I'll be back with Wimbledon on Monday.
29th June
WTA Bad Homburg
Shnaider v Vekic 1.75
Due to start at 11:30 am
1st meeting. Grass win %'s in the last year are better for Shnaider.
Shnaider beat Kerber in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She beat Yastremska as slight underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Badosa as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over Navarro in the semi final as underdog. She reached the q finals last week in Birmingham. She is inexperienced on grass but has played well in the last 3 weeks.
Vekic beat Bronzetti in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Alexandrova in the 2nd round as underdog. She had a walkover in the q final when Siniakova pulled out. 2 sets win over Tomova in the semi final. She reached 2nd rounds in the last 2 weeks. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Grass stats in the last year favour Shnaider over all but some serve stats favour Vekic. Hard stats in 2024 favour Shnaider.
Fair chance of 3 sets. Shnaider had an MTO in her match with Navarro but dominated the rest of the match.
Lay Vekic around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95.
ATP Mallorca
Ofner v Tabilo 1.75
Due to start at 2 pm
Ofner 1-0 (Jan 2023, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Tabilo.
Ofner beat Munar in a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round and beat Darderi in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Michelsen in the q final. In the semi final, he beat Jubb in 2 tight sets. There were just breaks in the match. He reached a CH final in June 2023. he lost his 4 grass matches in the last 12 months but performed well in them. he lost in 3 close sets to Zhang last week and lost to Draper in 2 tie breaks the week before that.
Tabilo has a little more grass experience. He reached the 2nd round last week, beating Davidovich Fokina in 3 sets. 2 sets win over Shevchenko in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Mensik in the q final. Monfils was beaten in a 3rd set t9e break in the semi final. 2nd round at Wimbledon in 2022.
12 month grass stats are better for Tabilo overall. Hard stats in 2024 also favour Tabilo.
Back Tabilo around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
28th June
WTA Eastbourne
Fernandez v Keys 1.52
Due to start at 11 am
Keys 1-0 (June 2021, clay, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Keys.
Fernandez beat Krejcikova in 3 sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Krueger in the 2nd round. Easy win over Dart in the q final. She reached the q finals in Birmingham last week. 2nd round at Wimbledon.
Keys won the title last year. She beat Kalinina in 2 sets. She had a walkover in the q final when Muchova pulled out. She reached the q finals at Wimbledon.
12 month stats are better for Keys on serve. Return stats are pretty even. Slight edge to Fernandez. Hard stats in 2024 are better for Keys on serve.
Back Keys around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
WTA Bad Homburg
Shnaider v Navarro 1.64
Due to start at 1 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2024, clay, Shnaider in 3. Navarro won on grass in 2019, 2 sets. Long term grass win %'s are better for Navarro.
Shnaider beat Kerber in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She beat Yastremska as slight underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Badosa as underdog in the q final. She reached the q finals last week in Birmingham. She is inexperienced on grass but has played well in the last 3 weeks.
Navarro reached the semis last year. She beat Cristian in 2 sets in the 1st round. She made a slow start against Stearns in the 2nd round and was 3-1 down. In the q final, Wozniacki looked the better player but retired early in set 3. She lost just 2 more games in the match.
12 month grass stats are better for Shnaider. Hard stats in 2024 favour Shnaider on serve. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Lay Navarro around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.90. Lay set 1 winner.
27th June
WTA Bad Homburg
Vekic v Siniakova 1.76
Due to start at 2 pm
Siniakova 4-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Siniakova in 2. Vekic won on hard in 2019, 2 sets. Siniakova won their only grass meeting in 2016. Grass win %'s are better for Siniakova.
Vekic beat Bronzetti in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Alexandrova in the 2nd round as underdog. She reached 2nd rounds in the last 2 weeks. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Siniakova won the title last season. She beat Burel in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Samsonova in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals as qualifier in Berlin last week. She had a fall in the q final just as she was getting on top of Pegula. 2nd round at Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats favour Siniakova overall. Hard stats in 2024 are better for Vekic on serve but strongly favour Siniakova on return.
Fair chance of 3 sets but I favour Siniakova.
Back Siniakova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
WTA Eastbourne
Keys 1.48 v Muchova
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Keys 1-0 (Sep 2019, hard, 2 close sets). Grass win %'s are much better for Muchova.
Keys won the title last year. She beat Kalinina in 2 sets. She reached the q finals at Wimbledon.
Muchova had not played since the US Open semis in Sep. She came through the 1st round when Avanesyan retired in set 1. 2 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals at Wimbledon in 2021.
Muchova served well against Linette and was not broken.
Back Keys around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
26th June
WTA Bad Homburg
Navarro 1.33 v Stearns
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Navarro 3-1. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Navarro in 3 sets. She won their last 3 matches, all on clay. Stearns won on hard in Oct 2019, 3 sets. Grass win %'s are better for Navarro.
Navarro reached the semis last year. She beat Cristian in 2 sets in the 1st round.
Stearns won 2 of her 5 grass matches before this week. She beat a lucky loser in the 1st round after Putintseva withdrew.
Back Navarro around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.45.
WTA Bad Homburg
Blinkova v Haddad Maia 1.48
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Maia 3-0. Most recent May 2022, clay, Maia in 2. She won on hard in 2019. Grass win %'s are better for Maia.
Blinkova reached the q finals last season. She beat Andreescu in the 1st round. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Maia beat Korpatsch in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 4th round at Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats are better for Maia on serve. Recently, she has started matches well but struggled a little more as the match goes on.
Back Maia around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
25th June
WTA Bad Homburg
Noskova 1.57 v Tomova
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Noskova 1-0 (June 2022, clay, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are a little better for Tomova.
Noskova reached the 2nd round last season. She beat Townsend in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2nd round in Berlin last week and took Jabeur to 3 sets.
Tomova lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win over Maria in the 1st round. 2nd round at Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats favour Noskova on serve but strongly favour Tomova on return. Hard stats in 2024 favour Noskova on serve. Good chance of 3 sets. Recent performances are better for Noskova.
Back Noskova around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
WTA Eastbourne
Boulter 1.45 v Martic
Due to start at 2:15 pm
Martic 1-0 (June 2023, grass, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Boulter.
Boulter lost to Martic in the 1st round last year. Title in Nottingham. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Martic reached the q finals as lucky loser last season. She lost in the qual rounds this week. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats are better for Martic but she only played 2 matches. Hard stats in 2024 are stronger for Boulter.
Back Boulter around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
24th June
WTA Eastbourne
Linette v Pavlyuchenkova 1.78
Due to start at 11 am
3-0. Most recent May 2023, clay, 2 sets. Pavlyuchenkova in 2. She won indoors in 2019 and on hard in 2016. Grass win %'s are better for Linette.
Linette has come through the qual rounds. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Pavlyuchenkova reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon in 2021. She has not played on grass since.
Hard stats in 2024 are better for Pavlyuchenkova.
Lay Pavlyuchenkova around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets.
WTA Bad Homburg
Andreescu 1.32 v Blinkova
Due to start at 3 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Andreescu.
Andreescu reached the 2nd round last year. She reached the final in Hertogenbosch 2 weeks ago. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Blinkova reached the q finals last season. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats are stronger for Andreescu.
Back Andreescu around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.
23rd June
ATP Halle
Sinner 1.36 v Hurkacz
Due to start at 1 pm
H2H 2-2. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Sinner in 3. Hurkacz won on hard in Feb 2022, 2 sets. Grass win %'s are pretty even.
Sinner reached the q finals last year. This week he lost the 1st set to Griekspoor. He needed 3 sets against Marozsan in the 2nd round. He beat Struff in a 3rd set tie break in the q final. 2 sets win over Zhang in the semis. Both sets were really close. He reached the semis at Wimbledon, losing to Djokovic.
Hurkacz reached the semis last year. Straight sets win over Cobolli in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Duckworth. He beat Giron in 2 close sets in the q final. 2 sets win over Zverev in the semis. 4th round at Wimbledon. Semis in Stuttgart. He won this title in 2022.
12 month grass stats are fairly even on serve but strongly favour Sinner on return.
Lay Sinner around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Sinner above 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.
WTA Challenger Gaiba
Parks v Pera 1.78
Due to start at 2:45 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Parks.
Parks needed a 3rd set tie break in the qual round as strong pre match favourite. Easy win over Todoni in the 2nd round as underdog. She beat Montgomery in 3 sets as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win in the semi final. 2nd round at Wimbledon. 2nd round in Berlin as qualifier in 2022.
Pera had not lost a set this week. She was also moderate favourite in each round. She needed 3 sets against Errani in the semi final. 2nd round in Birmingham 2023.
Grass stats on all tours in the last year favour Parks on serve. Stats for the tournament also favour her on serve.
Lay Pera around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10. Fair chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Parks to win.
22nd June
WTA Birmingham
Cocciaretto v Putintseva 1.81
Due to start at 11 am
Putintseva 1-0 (Jan 2024, hard, 3rd set tie break). Grass win %'s are better for Cocciaretto.
Cocciaretto beat defending champ Ostapenko in 2 sets. 2 sets win over Stephens in the 2nd round. I had expected Stephens to have low motivation in her first round match. For some reason she saved the tank for the 2nd round. Cocciaretto beat Shnaider in 3 sets in the q final. Both players had MTO's. Cocciaretto reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Putintseva's last decent result on grass was a q final at this tournament in 2019. She beat Burel in 2 sets in the 1st round this week. Very easy win over Kalinina in the 2nd round. She needed 3 sets against Dolehide in the q final. She was a set and a break ahead and served for the match in the 2nd set.
12 month grass stats are better for Putintseva on serve. Hard stats in 2024 also favour Putintseva.
Back Putintseva around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Good chance of 3 sets.
WTA Birmingham
Tomljanovic v Potapova 1.56
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Tomljanovic 2-1. Most recent Oct 2021, indoor, Tomljanovic in 3. She won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. Potapova won indoors in 2020, 2 sets. Long term grass win %'s are better for Potapova. They are quite even in the last year. Tomljanovic has 1 less loss.
Tomljanovic had an easy win over Blinkova in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Zhu in the 2nd round. She beat Fernandez in 3 sets as underdog in the q final. Fernandez was a set and a break ahead but pretty much fell apart. She reached an ITF q final this month. Q finals at Wimbledon 2022. She has had some injury issues in the last 12 months.
Potapova reached the semis last year. Straight sets win over Avanesyan in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bronzetti in the 2nd round. Easy win over Krejcikova who won 8 points on serve in the 1st set. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
This Tomljanovic's only grass tournament in the last 12 months. Hard stats in 2024 are much better for Potapova.
Back Potapova around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
21st June
WTA Birmingham
Putintseva 1.38 v Dolehide
Due to start at 2 pm
Putintseva 1-0 (Apr 2024, clay, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are close but favour Putintseva.
Putintseva's last decent result on grass was a q final at this tournament in 2019. She beat Burel in 2 sets in the 1st round this week. Very easy win over Kalinina in the 2nd round.
Dolehide lost in the qual rounds last season. She lost in the qual rounds again this week. She beat Pliskova in a 3rd set tie break. In the 2nd round, Mertens retired.
Back Putintseva around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.
WTA Birmingham
Fernandez 1.64 v Tomljanovic
Due to start at 3:30 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Tomljanovic.
Fernandez had an easy win over Sorribes Tormo in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Golubic in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon. 2nd round in Bad Homburg.
Tomljanovic had an easy win over Blinkova in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Zhu in the 2nd round. She reached an ITF q final this month. Q finals at Wimbledon 2022. She has had some injury issues in the last 12 months.
12 month grass stats are better for Tomljanovic overall. Hard stats in 2024 are stronger for Fernandez.
Back Fernandez around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability round 1.70.
20th June
WTA Berlin
Vondrousova 1.59 v Kalinskaya
Due to start at 10 am
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are fairly even.
Vondrousova reached the q finals last year. 2 sets win over Masarova in the 1st round. She won the Wimbledon title.
Kalinskaya had not played on grass since June 2022. She beat Hibino in 3 sets in the 1st round.
Back Vondrousova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Berlin
Pegula 1.68 v Vekic
Due to start at 1 pm
Pegula 1-0 (June 2022, grass, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are fairly even.
Pegula reached the 2nd round last week. Q finals at Wimbledon. Q finals in Eastbourne.
Vekic reached the final last year. 3 sets win over Niemeier in the 1st round. 2nd round in Hertogenbosch last week. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Vekic has lost the opening set in her last 2 matches 6-1. Pegula was poor last week against Krunic. 12 month grass stats are better for Pegula.
Back Pegula around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
ATP Queens Club
Mpetshi Perricard 1.62 v Harris
Due to start at 3 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are a little better for Perricard.
Perricard has come through the qual rounds. He beat Shelton in 2 sets in the 1st round. He lost to Musetti in 2 tie breaks in the 1st round in Stuttgart after getting through the qual rounds.
Harris lost in the qual rounds last season. This week he beat Etcheverry in 3 sets as slight underdog. 2 CH semis this month.
Harris has more grass experience but almost all his matches were in Challengers or ITF's. Recent performances are better for Perricard.
Back Perricard around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
Chance of 3 sets.
19th June
WTA Berlin
Vondrousova 1.63 v Kalinskaya
Due to start at 2:30 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are fairly even.
Vondrousova reached the q finals last year. 2 sets win over Masarova in the 1st round. She won the Wimbledon title.
Kalinskaya had not played on grass since June 2022. She beat Hibino in 3 sets in the 1st round.
Back Vondrousova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
ATP Queens Club
Raonic v Fritz 1.72
Due to start at 4:30 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Raonic.
Raonic beat Norrie in a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round. He reached the q finals last week. 2nd round at Wimbledon.
Fritz reached the 2nd round last season. Easy win over Daniel in the 1st round. 2nd round at Wimbledon.
Recent performances are better for Raonic.
Lay Fritz around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.00. Chance of 3 sets.
18th June
WTA Birmingham
Uchijima v Dart 1.71
Due to start at 12:30 pm
1st meeting. Dart has more grass experience.
Uchijima has come through the qual rounds. She never won a main draw grass match on any tour.
Dart reached the q finals last season. She took Boulter to 3 sets last week. 2nd round in Eastbourne.
12 month grass stats are better for Dart on serve.
Back Dart around 2.20 to 2.30.
WTA Birmingham
Shnaider 1.31 v Rajecki
Due to start at 2 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Rajecki.
Shnaider doesn't have a good record on grass. She won 1 of her 5 matches. She started well in her match last week against Yuan but lost in 3 sets.
Rajecki has come through the qual rounds. She has not won a main draw grass match on any tour.
Back Shnaider around 1.80 to 1.90.
17th June
WTA Birmingham
Bronzetti v Frech 1.46
Due to start at 11 am
Bronzetti 1-0 (Mar 2024, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are even.
Bronzetti reached the final in Bad Homburg.
Frech reached the q finals as qualifier last season. Q finals in Nottingham last week, losing to eventual champ Boulter.
12 month grass stats are better for Frech. Hard stats in 2024 favour Frech.
Back Frech around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Birmingham
Ostapenko 1.38 v Cocciaretto
Due to start at 12:30 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Ostapenko.
Ostapenko won the title last year. 2nd round at Wimbledon. Q finals in Eastbourne.
Cocciaretto reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats are better for Ostapenko. Hard stats in 2024 also favour her.
Back Ostapenko around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.45.
16th June
WTA Nottingham
Pliskova 1.53 v Parry
Due to start at 11 am
1st meeting. Long term grass win %'s are even.
Pliskova beat Parks in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round over Watson. She beat Jabeur in 3 tight sets in the q final. She reached the 2nd round in Eastbourne.
Parry beat Bucsa in 2 sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Saville in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Birrell in the q final. She reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon. 3rd round at Wimbledon 2022.
Pliskova served well against Jabeur and was broken once in 3 sets. Parry has served well this week. Broken 4 times in 3 matches.
12 month grass stats are a little better for Pliskova on serve and favour Parry on return.
Back Pliskova around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Challenger Valencia
Tomova 1.52 v Li
Due to start at 3:30pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are even.
Tomova needed 3 sets in the 1st and 2nd rounds but has a very easy win in the q final. She was favourite in the first 3 rounds. She needed 3 sets in the semis. 2nd round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat. Most of her best results on clay are in Challengers.
Li reached the q finals as qualifier last year. She beat Trevisan in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. Very easy win in the q final. She beat Maneiro as underdog in 3 sets in the semi final. Her best results in the last 12 months were in ITF's.
12 month clay stats on all tours are better for Li on serve. Return stats favour Tomova. Very good chance of 3 sets.
Back Tomova above 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
15th June
ATP Stuttgart
Nakashima v Draper 1.51
Due to start at 11 am
H2H 1-1. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Draper in 3. Nakashima won indoors in Nov 2022, 4 sets. Long term grass win %'s are better for Nakashima.
Nakashima beat Eubanks in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Gasquet in the 2nd round. Walkover in the q final. He reached a CH semi last week. 4th round at Wimbledon 2022.
Draper beat Ofner in 2 tie breaks in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Giron in the 2nd round. 3rd set tie break win over Tiafoe in the q final. He reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon 2022 and the semis in Eastbourne in 2022. He did not play on grass in 2023. He has had some tough draws in 2024 but reached a final and a semi on hard.
12 month grass stats favour Draper on serve. Hard stats in 2024 favour Draper overall. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Draper around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Nottingham (from yesterday)
Parry 1.60 v Birrell
Due to start at 11 am
1st meeting. 12 month grass win %'s are better for Birrell.
Parry beat Bucsa in 2 sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Saville in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon. 3rd round at Wimbledon 2022.
Birrell has come through the qual rounds. 2 sets win over Appleton in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Stefanini despite having an MTO for her left knee. ITF q final in June. 2nd round in Hertogenbosch.
12 month grass stats are better for Birrell. Parry has the better ROI on grass. Hard stats in 2024 are better for Parry.
Back Parry around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Hertogenbosch
Galfi v Andreescu 1.46
Due to start at 2 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Galfi in the last 12 months.
Galfi lost in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds this week. Easy win over Rus in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Kudermetova as underdog. 2 sets win over Krunic in the q final. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Andreescu reached the 2nd round last year. She needed 3 sets as 1.18 favourite in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Yuan in the 2nd round. 3rd set tie break win over Osaka in the q final. 3rd round at Wimbledon.
Galfi had strapping on her knee in the 2nd round and added strapping to her thigh in the q final.
Back Andreescu around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
14th June
WTA Nottingham
Frech vs Boulter 1.57
Due to start at 11:30
H2H 1-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Boulter in 3. Frech won indoors in 2017, 3 sets. Grass win %'s are better for Boulter.
Frech reached the q finals last year. 2 sets win over Hibino. 3 sets win over Maria in the 2nd round. Q finals in Birmingham. 3rd round at Wimbledon 2022.
Boulter won the title last season. 3 sets win over Dart in the 1st round. She beat Marino in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 3rd round in Wimbledon.
12 month grass stats are better for Frech on serve and favour Boulter on return. Hard stats in 2024 favour Boulter. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Boulter around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
WTA Nottingham
Parry 1.60 v Birrell
Due to start at 4 pm
1st meeting. 12 month grass win %'s are better for Birrell.
Parry beat Bucsa in 2 sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Saville in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon. 3rd round at Wimbledon 2022.
Birrell has come through the qual rounds. 2 sets win over Appleton in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Stefanini despite having an MTO for her left knee. ITF q final in June. 2nd round in Hertogenbosch.
12 month grass stats are better for Birrell. Parry has the better ROI on grass. Hard stats in 2024 are better for Parry.
Back Parry around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.
13th June
WTA Nottingham
Jones v Krueger 1.43
Due to start at 1pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Krueger.
Jones had lost 10 of her 11 grass matches before this week. Her win was in the Wimbledon juniors in 2016. Her best results are on clay which is as different to grass as you can get. So, it was a surprise that she beat Dolehide in 2 sets in the 1st round.
Krueger beat Yafan Wang in the 1st round. She won a CH title in June 2023. Q final in Hertogenbosch.
Back Krueger around 1.80 to 1.95.
WTA Hertogenbosch
Montgomery v Niemeier 1.89
Due to start at 3:30 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Montgomery.
Montgomery has come through the qual rounds. She beat Linette in 3 sets in the 1st round. She faced 14 bp's but was not broken. CH semi in June 2023.
Niemeier Served really well in her 3 sets win over Tauson in the 1st round. She was broken 3 times from 4 bp's. She reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon and Berlin. Q finals at Wimbledon 2022.
12 month WTA stats are better for Montgomery on serve. I traded both matches and was more impressed by Niemeier.
Lay Montgomery around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.
12th June
WTA Hertogenbosch
Vekic 1.49 v Minnen
Due to start at 11:30 am
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Vekic.
Vekic had an easy win over Korpatsch in the 1st round. She reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon. Final in Berlin in June 2023.
Minnen reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Masarova in 2 sets in the 1st round. Lost in the 1st round of Wimbledon as qualifier.
12 month grass stats are better for Vekic on serve.
Back Vekic around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
WTA Nottingham
Marino v Boulter 1.39
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Boulter 1-0 (Aug 2023, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Boulter.
Marino lost in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds this week. She has a straight sets win over Golubic in the 1st round. Q finals in Birmingham.
Boulter won the title last season. 3 sets win over Dart in the 1st round. 3rd round in Wimbledon.
Back Boulter around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.
11th June
ATP Hertogenbosch (from yesterday)
Napolitano v Mannarino 1.48
Due to start at 10 am
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Mannarino.
Napolitano has come through the qual rounds. He never won a main draw ATP grass match.
Mannarino reached the q finals last season. Title in Newport in July. 2nd round at Wimbledon. Final in Mallorca in June 2023. Q finals at Queens Club.
Back Mannarino around 1.90 to 2.00.
WTA Nottingham
Golubic v Marino 1.93
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Golubic 1-0 (Sep 2023, hard, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Golubic.
Golubic reached the q final last season. 2nd round at Wimbledon as qualifier.
Marino last in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds this week. Q finals in Birmingham.
12 month stats are better for Golubic. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Golubic.
Lay Marino around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets.
WTA Hertogenbosch
Tauson v Niemeier
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Tauson 1-0 (Feb 2021, indoor, 2 sets). Long term grass win %'s are better for Niemeier.
Tauson has played 8 grass matches. Only 1 was not at Wimbledon.
Niemeier reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon and Berlin. Q finals at Wimbledon 2022.
12 month WTA stats are better for Tauson. She only played 3 matches which were in the Wimbledon qual rounds. 3 month stats on hard are better for Tauson. recent performances on all surfaces are better for Tauson.
Back Tauson around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
10th June
ATP Hertogenbosch
Napolitano v Mannarino 1.48
Due to start at 1:30 pm
1st meeting. Grass win %'s are better for Mannarino.
Napolitano has come through the qual rounds. He never won a main draw ATP grass match.
Mannarino reached the q finals last season. Title in Newport in July. 2nd round at Wimbledon. Final in Mallorca in June 2023. Q finals at Queens Club.
Back Mannarino around 1.90 to 2.00.
WTA Nottingham
Miyazaki v Fruhvirtova 1.60
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Fruhvirtova 1-0 (May 2024, clay, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are better for Fruhvirtova.
Miyazaki reached the 2nd round in 2022.
Fruhvirtova has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Birmingham.
Most of Miyazaki's matches were in ITF's.
Back Fruhvirtova around 2.00 to 2.20.
9th June
ATP French Open
Zverev v Alcaraz 1.39
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Zverev 5-4. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Alcaraz in 2. Zverev won on hard in Jan 2024, 4 sets. Alcaraz won on clay in May 2023, 2 sets. Zverev won on clay at the French Open in 2022, 4 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Zverev.
Zverev reached the semis last season. He beat Nadal in straight sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Goffin in the 2nd round. He beat Griekspoor in a 5th set tie break in the 3rd round. Another 5 setter against Rune in the 4th round. Straight sets win over De Minaur in the q final and 4 sets win over Ruud in the semis. Title in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Title in Hamburg in July.
Alcaraz reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 1st round. 4 sets win over De Jong in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Korda in the 3rd round. Easy win over Aliassime in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Tsitsipas in the q final and a 5 sets win over Sinner in the semi final. Q finals in Madrid. Semis in Buenos Aires.
12 month stats are better for Zverev on serve and favour Alcaraz on return. Same pattern in the last 3 months and predicted holds favour Alcaraz. Zverev has spent 3 hours more on court in the tournament. Recent performances are a little better for Alcaraz. 4 or 5 sets.
Lay Alcaraz around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Challenger, Bari
Todoni 1.68 v Udvardy
Due to start at 7pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Todoni.
Todoni beat Ferro as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kalieva in the 2nd round. 2 sets win as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over Podoroska as underdog in the semi final. She reached the 2nd round in Bogota as qualifier in April. CH q final in Nov. CH q final in Sep.
Udvardy needed 3 sets in the 1st round. Lost just 1 game in the 2nd round. 2 tie breaks win over Zarazua as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over defending champion Zidansek. She reached an ITF final in April. ITF zemi in April. CH q final in Nov. 2nd round in Hamburg and 2 CH 2nd rounds in July.
3 month stats on all tours are very even. Stats for the tournament are better for Todoni.
Back Todoni around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.65. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Todoni in 3 sets.
8th June
WTA Challenger, Makarska
Volynets 1.75 v Wang
Due to start at 4 pm
Volynets 1-0 (Apr 2022, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Volynets.
Volynets had an easy win in the 1st round. Another 2 sets win in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Jeanjean in the q final. 2nd round at the French Open as qualifier. 2nd round in Rome. CH q final in May.
Wang needed 3 sets in the 1st round as 1.03 favourite. 2 sets win over Bagaric in the 2nd round. She came through the q final when Fruhvirtova retired in set 1. She reached the 2nd round at the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rabat and Madrid.
3 month stats are better for Volynets. Recent performances are better for Volynets.
Back Volynets around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
WTA Challenger, Bari
Zidansek 1.74 v Udvardy
Due to start at 7 pm
Zidansek 2-1. Most recent July 2023, clay, Zidansek in 2. Udvardy's win was on grass in 2022, 2 sets. Zidansek won on clay in 2017. Clay win %'s are better for Zidansek.
Zidansek won the title last year. Very easy win in the 1st round. She beat Oz in 2 tight sets in the 2nd round. 3rd set tie break win over Trevisan as slight underdog in the q final. 2nd round at the French Open as qualifier. CH semis in Sep.
Udvardy needed 3 sets in the 1st round. Lost just 1 game in the 2nd round. 2 tie breaks win over Zarazua as underdog in the q final. She reached an ITF final in April. ITF zemi in April. CH q final in Nov. 2nd round in Hamburg and 2 CH 2nd rounds in July.
3 month stats favour Zidansek on serve.
Back Zidansek around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
7th June
ATP French Open
Alcaraz 1.68 v Sinner
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Alcaraz 5-4. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Alcaraz in 3. Sinner won on hard in Oct and March 2023, 2 and 3 sets. Sinner won their last match on clay in 2022, 3 sets. Alcaraz won on clay in 2019, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Sinner.
Alcaraz reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 1st round. 4 sets win over De Jong in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Korda in the 3rd round. Easy win over Aliassime in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Tsitsipas in the q final. Q finals in Madrid. Semis in Buenos Aires.
Sinner reached the 2nd round last season. Straight sets win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Gasquet in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Kotov in the 3rd round. He dropped the first set to Moutet in the 4th round. 3 sets win over Dimitrov in the q final. Q finals in Madrid. Semis in Monte Carlo.
12 month stats are better for Sinner on serve and favour Alcaraz on return. Same pattern in the last 3 months. Predicted holds are a little better for Sinner. This should be a long match. 4 or 5 sets.
Lay Alcaraz around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.
ATP French Open
Ruud v Zverev 1.88
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Zverev 3-2. Most recent June 2023, French Open, clay, Ruud in straight sets. He won on hard in March 2022, 3 sets. All Zverev's wins were in 2021. 2 were in 2 sets and the other was by walkover. Clay win %'s are even.
Ruud reached the final last season. Easy win in the 1st round. He needed 5 sets against Fokina in the 2nd round. 4 sets win over Etcheverry in the 3rd round. He beat Fritz in 4 sets in the 4th round and had a walkover in the q final when Djokovic pulled out. Title in Geneva. 4th round in Madrid. Title in Barcelona. Final in Monte Carlo. Semis in Estoril. Final in Bastad in July.
Zverev reached the semis last season. He beat Nadal in straight sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Goffin in the 2nd round. He beat Griekspoor in a 5th set tie break in the 3rd round. Another 5 setter against Rune in the 4th round. Straight sets win over De Minaur in the q final. Title in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Title in Hamburg in July.
12 month stats favour Zverev on serve and favour Ruud on return. 3 month stats also favour Zverev on serve and favour Ruud on return. Predicted holds are pretty even.
This looks really tight. I give a slight edge to Zverev.
Lay Ruud around 1.65 and remove liability around 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.
6th June
WTA Challenger, Makarska
Joint v Schmiedlova 1.64
Due to start at 12:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Joint.
Joint came through the qual round. Easy win over Ruzic in the 1st round. ITF final, semi and q final in May. 3 ITF semis in April.
Schmiedlova had an easy win over Hercog in the 1st round. She won a CH title in May. 2nd rounds in Madrid and Rouen. CH final in Sep. Q finals in Budapest in July.
12 month stats on all tours are better for Joint. Recent performances are better for Schmiedlova.
Back Schmiedlova around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
WTA French Open
Paolini v Andreeva 1.74
Due to start at 4 pm
Andreeva 1-0 (Apr 2024, clay, 2 close sets). Clay win %'s are close but favour Andreeva.
Paolini reached the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Saville in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Baptiste in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Andreescu in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Avanesyan in the 4th round. She beat Rybakina in 3 sets in the q final. She served well but Rybakina was well below her best. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Final in Palermo in July. CH final in June.
Andreeva reached the 3rd round as qualifier last year. Straight sets win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Azarenka in the 2nd round. She only held serve once in the 2nd set. In the 3rd set she went a break ahead 3 times but was broken back. She took the lead a fourth time and this time held on. Very easy win over Stearns in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Gracheva in the 4th round. In the q final, Sabalenka was sick but still took the first set and kept the next 2 sets close. Sabalenka was a break up in the 3rd set. Q finals in Madrid. Q finals in Rouen.
3 month stats favour Paolini. Rybakina was sick in Rome and looked sick in the last round. She admitted as much in her press conference. Andreeva has pulled out of the doubles tournament. At 17 she is unlikely to have done that due to fatigue so perhaps she is carrying an injury.
Lay Andreeva around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.
5th June
WTA French Open
Paolini v Rybakina 1.29
Due to start at 1:15 pm
H2H 2-2. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Rybakina in 3. Paolini "won" in Feb 2024 when Rybakina withdrew. Her other win was by retirement. Clay win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Paolini reached the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Saville in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Baptiste in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Andreescu in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Avanesyan in the 4th round. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Final in Palermo in July. CH final in June.
Rybakina reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win over Minnen in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Rus in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Mertens in the 3rd round. Another 2 sets win over Svitolina in the 4th round. She was broken in her first 2 service games. Semis in Madrid. Title in Stuttgart.
3 month stats are better for Rybakina on serve.
Back Rybakina around 1.85 to 1.95.
ATP French Open
Zverev 1.45 v De Minaur
Due to start at 7:15 pm
Zverev 7-2. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Zverev in 3. De Minaur won in Jan 2024, 3 sets. Zverev won on clay in May 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Zverev.
Zverev reached the semis last season. He beat Nadal in straight sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Goffin in the 2nd round. He beat Griekspoor in a 5th set tie break in the 3rd round. Another 5 setter against Rune in the 4th round. Title in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Title in Hamburg in July.
De Minaur reached the 2nd round last year. Very easy win over Michelsen in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Munar. 4 sets win over Struff in the 3rd round. He beat Medvedev in 4 sets in the 4th round. Medvedev had a blisters problem. 4th round in Rome. Q finals in Monte Carlo.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Zverev on serve and favour De Minaur on return. Stats for the tournament are better for De Minaur overall.
4 or 5 sets. Lay Zverev around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
4th June
WTA French Open
Gauff 1.27 v Jabeur
Due to start at 10 am
Gauff 4-2. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Gauff in 2. Jabeur won on grass in 2022, 2 sets. Gauff leads 2-1 on clay. Clay win %'s are better for Gauff.
Gauff reached the q finals last year. Easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Zidansek in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. Easy win over Cocciaretto in the 4th round. Semis in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart.
Jabeur reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Vickery in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets in the 2nd round against Osorio. She beat Fernandez in 2 tight sets in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Tauson in the 4th round. Q finals in Madrid.
12 month clay stats are better for Gauff overall. 3 month stats favour Jabeur on serve and strongly favour Gauff on return.
Lay Gauff around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.50. Back Gauff around 1.85 to 2.00.
ATP French Open
Dimitrov v Sinner 1.23
Due to start at 1 pm
Sinner 3-1. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Sinner in 2. He won their last 3 matches, all on hard. Dimitrov won on clay in 2020, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Sinner.
Dimitrov reached the 4th round last season. Straight sets win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Marozsan in the 2nd round. 4 sets win over Bergs in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Hurkacz in the 4th round. 4th round in Rome. 3rd round in Monte Carlo.
Sinner reached the 2nd round last season. Straight sets win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Gasquet in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Kotov in the 3rd round. He dropped the first set to Moutet in the 4th round. Q finals in Madrid. Semis in Monte Carlo.
12 and 3 month stats strongly favour Sinner.
Lay Sinner and remove liability at 1.50. Back Sinner around 1.85 to 1.95.
3rd June
WTA French Open
Navarro v Sabalenka 1.32
Due to start at 11:30 am
Navarro 1-0 (Mar 2024, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Sabalenka.
Noskova lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. She beat Dart in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Errani in the 2nd round. She beat in form Keys in 2 tie breaks in the 3rd round. 3rd round in Rome. 2nd round in Stuttgart. CH q final in June.
Sabalenka reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 1st and 2nd rounds. In the 3rd round she struggled on serve in the 1st set against Badosa but won in 2 sets with a 6-0 2nd set. Final in Rome. Final in Madrid.
12 month stats are better for Sabalenka. Return stats are much better for Navarro. Same pattern in the last 3 months.
Lay Sabalenka around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back Sabalenka around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55. Lay set 1 winner. Slight edge to Sabalenka.
ATP French Open
Zverev 1.44 v Rune
Due to start at 7:15 pm
Rune 1-0 (Apr 2022, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Zverev.
Zverev reached the semis last season. He beat Nadal in straight sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Goffin in the 2nd round. He beat Griekspoor in a 5th set tie break in the 3rd round. Title in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Title in Hamburg in July.
Rune reached the q finals last season. Straight sets win over Evans in the 1st round. 5th set tie break win over Cobolli in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Kovalik in the 3rd round. Semis in Munich. Q finals in Monte Carlo.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Zverev.
Back Zverev around 2.10 to 2.202 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner. 4 sets
2nd June
WTA French Open
Danilovic v Vondrousova 1.38
Due to start at 10 am
Vondrousova 2-0. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets. She won on clay in 2016, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are fairly even.
Danilovic reached the 3rd round as qualifier last year. She made it through qualifying again this time. Very easy win over Trevisan in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Collins as huge underdog in the 2nd round. 3rd set tie break win over Vekic in the 3rd round. 2nd round in Madrid as qualifier. CH semi in April. CH title in July.
Vondrousova reached the 2nd round last season. Easy win over Masarova. 3 sets win over Volynets in the 2nd round. Easy win over Paquet in the 3rd round. Semis in Stuttgart.
12 month stats are better for Vondrousova overall. 3 month stats are stronger for Danilovic. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Vondrousova around 1.25 and remove liability around 1.65. Back Vondrousova around 2.00 to 2.20.
WTA French Open
Tauson v Jabeur 1.61
Due to start at 1:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Tauson.
Tauson reached the 3rd round as qualifier last season. 2 sets win over Maria in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Ostapenko as underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kenin in the 3rd round. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier. CH final in April.
Jabeur reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Vickery in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets in the 2nd round against Osorio. She beat Fernandez in 2 tight sets in the 3rd round. Q finals in Madrid.
12 month stats are a little better for Jabeur on serve. return stats and predicted holds favour Tauson. 3 month stats are a little better for Tauson overall. Stats for the tournament favour Tauson. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Jabeur around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.90. Lay set 1 winner.
Tauson has a great chance.
1st June
WTA French Open
Badosa v Sabalenka 1.27
Due to start at 12:30
Sabalenka 4-2. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Badosa retired in set 3. Sabalenka won on clay in 2023 and 2022, 3 and 3=2 sets. Their 3 clay matches have been very tight. Clay win %'s are better for Sabalenka.
Badosa needed 3 sets against Boulter in the 1st round. She beat Putintseva in 3 tight sets in the 2nd round. She reached the 4th round in Rome. She has had a lot of injury issues in the last year.
Sabalenka reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 1st and 2nd rounds. Final in Rome. Final in Madrid.
3 month stats are better for Sabalenka.
Lay Sabalenka around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45 to 1.55. Back Sabalenka around 1.90 to 2.00.
WTA French Open
Keys 1.59 v Navarro
Due to start at 3 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Navarro in 2. keys won on clay in Apr 2023, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Keys.
Keys reached the 2nd round last year. Easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Sherif in the 2nd round. Title in Strasbourg. Q finals in Rome. Semis in Madrid.
Noskova lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. She beat Dart in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Errani in the 2nd round. 3rd round in Rome. 2nd round in Stuttgart. CH q final in June.
12 month stats favour Keys. 3 month stats favour Keys on serve. Return stats are quite even with a slight edge to Navarro. Predicted holds are even in the 3 month stats. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Keys around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
31st May
WTA French Open
Potapova 1.47 v Wang
Due to start at 11:30 am
Potapova 1-0 (July 2022, hard, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are a little better for Wang.
Potapova reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Rakhimova in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Golubic in the 2nd round. 2nd rounds in Rome, Madrid and Stuttgart.
Wang reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Niemeier in 3 sets as underdog. 3 sets win over Tomova in the 2nd round. 2nd rounds in Rome, Madrid and Strasbourg.
12 month stats are better for Potapova. 3 month stats also favour her.
Back Potapova above 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA French Open
Fernandez v Jabeur 1.71
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Jabeur 3-0. Most recent April 2024, clay, 3 sets. All their matches went to 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Jabeur.
Fernandez reached the 2nd round last year. Easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round. 2nd round in Strasbourg and 3rd round in Madrid.
Jabeur reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Vickery in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets in the 2nd round against Osorio. Q finals in Madrid.
12 and 3 month stats favour Jabeur overall. Good chance of 3 sets. Stats for the tournament are better for Fernandez.
Lay Jabeur if she gets an early break and remove liability if Fernandez then gets a bp. Back Jabeur around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
30th May
WTA French Open
Samsonova 1.59 v Anisimova
Due to start at 11:30 am
Anisimova 2-0. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Samsonova.
Samsonova reached the 2nd round last year. Very easy win over Linette in the 1st round. Semis in Strasbourg. 3rd round in Madrid.
Anisimova reached the 4th round in 2022. She has played very few clay matches since. She beat Sramkova in 2 close sets in the 1st round. 2nd round in Charleston.
12 month stats favour Anisimova. 3 month stats are close but favour Samsonova on serve. Chance of 3 sets. Recent performances are better for Samsonova.
Back Samsonova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
WTA French Open
Begu v Noskova 1.86
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Noskova 1-0 (Mar 2023, hard, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are better for Begu.
Begu reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win over Riera in the 1st round. 4th round in Rome. CH final in March. CH final in July.
Noskova lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. She beat Dart in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. 3rd round in Rome. 2nd round in Stuttgart. CH q final in June.
Stats in 2024 are stronger for Begu. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Noskova around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10.
29th May
WTA French Open
Ostapenko 1.62 v Tauson
Due to start at 12:15
H2H 1-1. Most recent Feb 2024, indoor, Ostapenko in 3rd set tie break. Tauson won indoors in 2021, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Tauson.
Ostapenko reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Cristian in the 1st round. Q final in Rome. 4th round in Madrid.
Tauson reached the 3rd round as qualifier last season. 2 sets win over maria in the 1st round. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier. CH final in April.
12 month stats favour Tauson on serve. 3 month stats also favour her.
Chance of 3 sets. Lay Ostapenko around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA French Open
Bucsa v Cocciaretto 1.53
Due to start at 3:40 pm
Cocciaretto 1-0 (Nov 2018, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Cocciaretto.
Bucsa lost to Swiatek in the 1st round last season. 2 sets win in the 1st round. Q final in Bogota. CH q final in July.
Cocciaretto reached the 3rd round last year. 3 sets win over Haddad Maia in the 1st round. Q finals in Rabat. CH semi in March. Title in Lausanne.
12 and 3 month stats favour Cocciaretto on serve.
Back Cocciaretto around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.60.
28th May
WTA French Open
Bagaric v Stearns 1.48
Due to start at 1:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Bagaric.
Bagaric has come through the qual rounds. She plays mostly ITF's and has had a lot of success. 3 ITF titles in Feb/March. 2 ITF titles in Aug.
Stearns reached the 3rd round last year. She won the title in Rabat last week. 2 CH q finals in May.
Bagaric can be competitive.
Lay Stearns around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Back Stearns around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
WTA French Open
Errani v Schmiedlova 1.82
Due to start at 3 pm
Schmiedlova 2-1. Most recent Oct 2022, hard, Schmiedlova in 2. She won on clay in 2015. Errani won on clay in 2015. Clay win %'s in the last 12 months favour Schmiedlova. Errani leads in 2024.
Errani reached the 2nd round last year. She made it through the qual rounds this year. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid. Semis in Bogota. CH final in Sep.
Schmiedlova reached the 4th round last season. CH title in May. 2nd rounds in Madrid and Rouen. CH final in Sep. Q finals in Budapest.
3 month WTA stats are better for Errani. Very good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Schmiedlova around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
There should be quite a few breaks of serve. Slight edge to Errani and her experience.
27th May
WTA French Open
Kalinina 1.58 v Osorio
Due to start at 12:15
Kalinina 2-0. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets. She won on clay in 2019, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Osorio.
Kalinina lost in the 1st round last year. Q finals in Strasbourg. Semis in Rouen.
Osorio reached the 2nd round as lucky loser last season. 2nd rounds in Rabat and Rome. CH semi in May. Title in Bogota in April. Q finals in Palermo.
3 month stats favour Kalinina on serve. return stats are quite even. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Kalinina around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
WTA French Open
Riera v Begu 1.59
Due to start at 3:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are close but favour Begu.
Riera has come through the qual rounds. ITF titles in May and April. CH semi in March. CH semi and q final in Dec.
Begu reached the 3rd round last season. 4th round in Rome. CH final in March. CH final in July.
12 month stats on all tours favour Riera on serve. Return stats are quite even. Recent performances are better for Begu. She has come back from injury and has done well.
Chance of 3 sets. Back Begu around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
26th May
WTA French Open
Siegemund 1.67 v Kenin
Due to start at 12:00
Kenin 2-0. Most recent Sep 2019, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2019, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Siegemund.
Siegemund reached the q finals in Rabat. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier. Q finals in Bogota.
Kenin lost in the qual rounds last season. 3rd round in Rome.
12 month WTA stats favour Kenin on serve despite a much worse win %. 3 month stats favour her on serve but strongly favour Siegemund on return. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Siegemund around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA French Open
Sramkova v Anisimova 1.71
Due to start at 1:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Sramkova.
Sramkova has come through the qual rounds. 4th round in Rome as qualifier. CH final in Sep.
Anisimova reached the 4th round in 2022. She has played very few clay matches since. 2nd round in Charleston.
Lay Anisimova around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets.
25th May
WTA Rabat
Sherif 1.40 v Stearns
Due to start at 12:00
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Sherif.
Sherif reached the 2nd round last season. She has not lost a set this week and beat Carla in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the q final. She lost just 1 game to Rakhimova in the semis. CH final last week. 3rd round in Rome. CH final in May. 3rd round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo in July. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open.
Stearns reached the q finals last season. She needed 3 sets against Krunic in the 1st round. Easy win over Xiyu Wang in the 2nd round. In the q final she was 0-5 down in the 3rd set against Bronzetti but won the next 7 games. She beat Tomova in a 3rd set tie break in the semi final. CH q final last week. CH q final in May. 3rd round at the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats favour Sherif and her stats for the tournament are stronger.
Back Sherif around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability around 1.55.
WTA Strasbourg
Collins 1.67 v Keys
Due to start at 2 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2020, hard, Keys in 2. Collins won on hard in March 2018, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are close but favour Collins.
Collins had an easy win over Siniakova in the 1st round. Easy win over Burel in the q final. 2 sets win over Kalinina in the semis. She reached the semis in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Title in Charleston
Keys beat Xinyu Wang in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Linette in the q final. Very easy win over Samsonova in the semis. She reached the q finals in Rome and semis in Madrid. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 and 3 month WTA stats are better for Collins. neither player has lost a set this week. It should be close. Some value on Keys as underdog.
Lay Collins around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.90. Lay set 1 winner.
24th May
WTA Rabat
Stearns 1.75 v Tomova
Due to start at 12:00
Stearns 1-0 (Aug 2023, hard, 2 sets). Clay win %'s in the last year are clo0se but favour Stearns.
Stearns reached the q finals last season. She needed 3 sets against Krunic in the 1st round. Easy win over Xiyu Wang in the 2nd round. In the q final she was 0-5 down in the 3rd set against Bronzetti but won the next 7 games. CH q final last week. CH q final in May. 3rd round at the French Open.
Tomova had an easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Yafan Wang in the 2nd round. She beat Siegemund in 2 sets in the q final. Siegemund had an awful match. She reached a CH 2nd round last week. 2nd round in Charleston. CH q final in Sep and July. 2nd round in Strasbourg last season.
12 month stats favour Tomova on serve and Stearns on return. 3 month stats are close. Stats for the tournament favour Tomova.
Back Stearns around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.
WTA Rabat
Rakhimova v Sherif 1.35
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Sherif 1-0 (May 2024, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Sherif.
Rakhimova reached the 2nd round last year. Her opponent retired after 2 games in the 1st round. her 2nd round opponent also retired in the 1st set! She beat Cocciaretto in 2 sets in the q final. CH q final last week. Semis in Bogota in April. 3rd round at the French Open.
Sherif reached the 2nd round last season. She has not lost a set this week and beat Carla in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the q final. CH final last week. 3rd round in Rome. CH final in May. 3rd round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo in July. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month, 3 month and stats for the tournament favour Sherif.
Back Sherif around 1.85 to 2.00.
23rd May
ATP Lyon
Darderi 1.63 v Rinderknech
Due to start at 11:30 am
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Darderi.
Darderi beat Daniel in 2 close sets. He beat Mannarino in 2 tight sets. He reached the 3rd round in Rome. Semis in Houston. Q finals in Santiago. Title in Cordoba. He had a lot of Challenger success in the last year.
Rinderknech reached the 2nd round last season. He beat Evans in a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Tiafoe as underdog in 2 sets. Q finals in Kitzbuhel in Aug. CH title in July. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month stats are a little better for Rinderknech on serve but strongly favour Darderi on return. 3 month stats are quite close overall.
Back Darderi around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Rabat
Sorribes Tormo 1.75 v Sherif
Due to start at 2 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Sherif.
Tormo had a very easy win over Dart in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Podoroska in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd round in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo. 4th round at the French Open.
Sherif reached the 2nd round last season. She has not lost a set this week and beat Carla in the 2nd round. CH final last week. 3rd round in Rome. CH final in May. 3rd round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo in July. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month stats are better for Sherif on serve and favour Tormo on return. Same pattern in the 3 month stats and predicted holds favour Tormo. Good chance of 3 sets. Recent performances are better for Tormo.
Back Tormo around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
22nd May
WTA Rabat
Sherif 1.70 v Carle
Due to start at 2 pm
Sherif 1-0 (June 2023, clay, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are even.
Sherif reached the 2nd round last season. Easy win in the 1st round. CH final last week. 3rd round in Rome. CH final in May. 3rd round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo in July. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open.
Carle beat Rus in 2 sets as slight favourite in the 1st round. She reached the 3rd round in Madrid as qualifier. CH final in April. CH final and semi in Dec. CH q final in Sep.
12 month stats are better for Sherif on serve but strongly favour Carle on return. 3 month and 1 month stats favour Carle.
Lay Sherif around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95. Lay set 1 winner.
ATP Lyon
Gaston v Cerundolo 1.41
Due to start at 4:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are a little better for Gaston.
Gaston has come through the qual rounds. He was underdog in the 2nd qual round. He beat Galan in 2 tie breaks in the 1st round. 2 CH titles in July.
Cerundolo reached the final last season. Q finals in Madrid. Semis in Rio. Semis in Bastad. 4th round at the French Open.
12 month stats are better for Cerundolo overall. 3 month stats also favour him.
Back Cerundolo around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
21st May
WTA Strasbourg
Collins 1.44 v Siniakova
Due to start at 1:45 pm
Collins 2-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Collins in 2. She won indoors in Nov 2023, 2 sets. Siniakova won on hard in 2019, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Collins.
Collins reached the semis in Rome. 4th round in Madrid. Title in Charleston.
Siniakova beat a terrible Putintseva in the 1st round. She won a CH title in May.
3 month WTA stats are stronger for Collins on serve.
Back Collins around 1.90 to 2.10.
WTA Strasbourg
Ferro v Kalinina 1.37
Due to start at 5 pm
1st meeting. 12 month clay win %'s are even.
Ferro beat Andreeva in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She reached a CH q final last week. CH semi in July.
Kalinina beat Pavlyuchenkova in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She reached the semis in Rouen. She reached the final in Rome in 2023.
12 and 3 month WTA stats are better for Ferro. Recent performances are better for ferro. She should be competitive.
Lay Kalinina around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.
20th May
WTA Strasbourg
Stephens 1.53 v Frech
Due to start at 12:00
Stephens 3-0. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, 2 sets. All their matches were on clay. Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Stephens reached the 3rd round in Madrid. Title in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open.
Frech has come through the qual rounds. CH q final in May. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats favour Stephens.
Back Stephens around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Rabat
Siegemund 1.46 v Blinkova
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Blinkova 1-0- (June 2023, grass, 3 sets). Clay win %'s favour Siegemund.
Siegemund reached the 2nd round in Rome as qualifier. Q finals in Bogota.
Blinkova retired from the 2nd round in Rome. 3rd round at the French Open.
12 month clay stats favour Blinkova on serve. 3 month stats favour Siegemund overall.
Back Siegemund above 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
19th May
WTA Strasbourg
Fernandez v Potapova 1.78
Due to start at 11 am
Fernandez 3-0. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, 2 sets. She won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Potapova.
Fernandez reached the 3rd round in Madrid. 2nd round at the French Open.
Potapova reached 2nd rounds in Rome, Madrid and Stuttgart. 3rd round at the French Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Potapova. 3 month stats favour her. decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Potapova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Challenger, Paris
Navarro 1.51 v Shnaider
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Navarro 1-0 (July 2019, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are better for Navarro. They are even in 2024.
Navarro has not lost a set. She didn't lose a game in the 1st round and lost 3 in the 2nd round. Another easy win in the q final over Ferro. She lost just 2 games to Ruse in the semis. CH q final in May. Q finals in Palermo. CH final in July. 2nd round of the French Open.
Shnaider had a straight sets win in the 1st round. She needed a 3rd set tie break against Jacquemot as strong favourite in the 2nd round. Easy win over Andreeva in the q final. 2 sets win over Gracheva in the semis. 3rd round in Rome. Semis in Hamburg in July. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month stats favour Navarro. 3 month stats favour Navarro on serve and favour Shnaider on return.
Back Navarro around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
18th May
WTA Challenger, Paris
Shnaider 1.47 v Gracheva
Due to start at 11:30 am
1st meeting. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Gracheva.
Shnaider had a straight sets win in the 1st round. She needed a 3rd set tie break against Jacquemot as strong favourite in the 2nd round. Easy win over Andreeva in the q final. 3rd round in Rome. Semis in Hamburg in July. 2nd round at the French Open.
Gracheva reached the semis last season. In the 1st round, Bogdan retired. She beat Volynets in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Boulter in the q final. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Gracheva. 3 month WTA stats are better for Gracheva.
Lay Shnaider around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Rome
Swiatek 1.31 v Sabalenka
Due to start at 4 pm
Swiatek 7-3. Most recent May 2024, clay, 3rd set tie break. She won on hard in Nov 2023, 2 sets. Sabalenka won on clay in May 2023, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Swiatek.
Swiatek reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Pera in the 2nd round. She went behind in set 2 against Putintseva in the 3rd round but won in 2 sets. She won a tough 2 sets match with Kerber in the 4th round. Easy win over Keys in the q final. Gauff kept the sets close in the semi final but Swiatek was broken once from 2 bp's. She won the title in Madrid. Semis in Stuttgart. Title at the French Open.
Sabalenka lost in the 2nd round last season. she needed 3 sets against Volynets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. She beat Svitolina in a 3rd set tie break in the 4th round. She lost the first set. 2 sets win over Ostapenko in the q final. 2 sets win over Collins in the semis. Final in Madrid. Semis of the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Swiatek. Their last 2 matches on clay went to 3 sets. They met in the Madrid final 2 weeks ago and they went to a 3rd set tie break. Sabalenka really should have won.
Lay Swiatek around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.50. Lay set 1 winner.
17th May
ATP Rome
Tabilo v Zverev 1.28
Due to start at 2:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Zverev.
Tabilo has not lost a set so far. He was underdog against Djokovic and Khachanov. CH title in May. Semis in Bucharest. Final in Santiago.
Zverev reached the 4th round last season. He has not lost a set so far. he was favourite in every round. 4th round in Madrid. Title in Hamburg in July. Q finals in Bastad. Semis at the French Open.
12 month and 3 month ATP stats are better for Zverev.
Back Zverev around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45. I don't think Tabilo will go quietly today.
ATP Rome
Jarry v Paul 1.90
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Paul 2-1. Most recent June 2023, clay, Jarry in 4 sets. Paul won on hard in 2020, 2 sets and on clay in 2014, 3 sets. 12 month clay win %'s are even. Paul leads in 2024.
Jarry lost in the 1st round last year. He dropped a set in the 3rd round and beat Tsitsipas in the q final as huge underdog. Final in Buenos Aires. 4th round at the French Open. Title in Geneva in May 2023.
Paul lost in the 2nd round last season. He didn't lose a set in his 1st 3 matches, including against Medvedev in the 4th round. He beat Hurkacz in 3 sets in the q final as underdog. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month ATP stats are better for Jarry on serve. Return stats favour Paul. 3 month stats favour Jarry on serve and Paul on return. Very good chance of 3 sets. I give a slight edge to Jarry.
Lay Paul around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.
16th May
ATP Rome
Hurkacz 1.70 v Paul
Due to start at 12:00
H2H 1-1. Most recent Mar 2023, hard, Paul in 3. Hurkacz won indoors in Nov 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Hurkacz.
Hurkacz lost in the 2nd round last season. Very easy win over Nadal in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Etcheverry. 3 sets win over Baez in the 4th round. 4th round in Madrid. 3rd round in Monte Carlo. Title in Estoril. 3rd round at the French Open.
Paul lost in the 2nd round last year. He beat Karatsev in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Koepfer in the 3rd round. Easy win over Medvedev in the 4th round. 3rd round in Madrid and 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month stats are better for Hurkacz on serve and favour Paul on return. Same pattern in the last 3 months. This could be tight. Medvedev was really poor in the last round against Paul.
Back Hurkacz around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Rome
Collins v Sabalenka 1.67
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Sabalenka 5-0. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, 3 sets. She won on hard in Sep 2022, hard, 3 sets. Collins won the 1st set in their last 2 matches.
Collins came through the 1st round when Blinkova retired after set 1. Straight sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. Easy win over Begu in the 4th round. 2 sets win over Azarenka in the q final. She reached the 4th round in Madrid. Title in Charleston.
Sabalenka lost in the 2nd round last season. she needed 3 sets against Volynets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. She beat Svitolina in a 3rd set tie break in the 4th round. She lost the first set. 2 sets win over Ostapenko in the q final. Final in Madrid. Semis of the French Open.
12 month stats are quite even. Slight edge to Collins overall. 3 month stats are better for Collins. Collins has the higher ROI in the last 12 months and also in 2024.
Lay Sabalenka around 1.40 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner. Some value on Collins.
15th May
WTA Rome
Ostapenko v Sabalenka 1.33
Due to start at 12:00
Sabalenka 2--0. Most recent Feb 2023, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2019, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Sabalenka.
Ostapenko reached the semis last season. She beat Potapova in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Sorribes Tormo in the 3rd round. She beat Sramkova in a 3rd set tie break. 4th round in Madrid. 2nd round of the French Open.
Sabalenka lost in the 2nd round last season. she needed 3 sets against Volynets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. She beat Svitolina in a 3rd set tie break in the 4th round. She lost the first set. Final in Madrid. Semis of the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Sabalenka.
Back Sabalenka around 1.85 to 2.00.
WTA Rome
Azarenka v Collins 1.51
Due to start at 6 pm
Collins 2-1. Most recent June 2020, clay, Collins in 2. Azarenka won on hard in 2019, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Collins.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last year. 3 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Sherif in the 3rd round. She beat Sakkari in 2 sets in the 4th round. 3rd round in Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
Collins came through the 1st round when Blinkova retired after set 1. Straight sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. Easy win over Begu in the 4th round. She reached the 4th round in Madrid. Title in Charleston.
12 and 3 month stats favour Collins on serve and favour Azarenka on return. Stats for the tournament favour Collins on serve.
Back Collins around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
14th May
ATP Rome
Paul v Medvedev 1.53
Due to start at 3 pm
Medvedev 3-0. Most recent March 2024, hard, 3 sets. He won on clay in 2021, 4 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Medvedev.
Paul lost in the 2nd round last year. He beat Karatsev in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Koepfer in the 3rd round. 3rd round in Madrid and 2nd round at the French Open.
Medvedev won the title last season. 2 sets win over Draper in the 2nd round. Tough 3 sets win over Medjedovic in the 3rd round. Q finals in Madrid.
12 month stats are close on serve but favour Medvedev on return. 3 month stats favour Paul. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Medvedev around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Rome
Gauff 1.70 v Zheng
Due to start at 7:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are quite even.
Gauff reached the 3rd round last season. Straight sets win over Frech in the 2nd round but she didn't serve well. Broken 4 times. In the 3rd round, Gauff didn't win a game in the 2nd set. She was a set and a break behind to Badosa in the 4th round and was also a break down in the 3rd set before she won 6 games in a row. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals at the French Open.
Zheng reached the q finals last season. Very easy win over Rogers in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Noskova in the 3rd round. She beat Osaka in 2 sets in the 4th round. She retired from Madrid. Title in Palermo in July. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Zheng on serve. Stats for the tournament also favour her.
Lay Gauff around 1.45 and remove liability around 2.00. Chance of 3 sets.
13th May
WTA Rome
Gauff 1.53 v Badosa
Due to start at 12:00
Badosa 3-1. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Badosa in 2. She won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Gauff won on hard in Feb 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Gauff.
Gauff reached the 3rd round last season. Straight sets win over Frech in the 2nd round but she didn't serve well. Broken 4 times. In the 3rd round, Gauff didn't win a game in the 2nd set. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals at the French Open.
Badosa reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Andreeva in the 1st round. She beat Navarro in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Shnaider in the 3rd round.
3 month stats are quite even on serve but strongly favour Gauff on return. I think we will see a lot of swings in this match. Neither player is at their best.
Lay Gauff if she gets an early break and remove liability if Badosa then gets a bp. Back Gauff around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Rome
Sakkari 1.65 v Azarenka
Due to start at 5 pm
Azarenka 2-0. Most recent Aug 2021, hard, 3rd set tie break. . She won indoors in Oct 2020, 2 sets. 12 month clay win %'s are even.
Sakkari reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Gracheva in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kalinina in the 3rd round. 4th round in Madrid. Semis in Charleston.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last year. 3 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Sherif in the 3rd round. 3rd round in Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
12 month stats are better for Sakkari on serve. Return stats are better for Azarenka. Predicted holds are quite even. 3 month stats favour Sakkari on serve. The sets should be close.
Back Sakkari around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets but I favour Sakkari.
12th May
WTA Rome
Azarenka 1.57 v Sherif
Due to start at 2:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Sherif.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last year. 3 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. 3rd round in Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
Sherif lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Martic in 2 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win as underdog over Paolini in the 2nd round. CH final last week. 3rd round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid 2023.
12 and 3 month stats favour Azarenka overall. Sherif's match with Paolini was a bit of a mess. 13 breaks of serve and both struggled on 1st serve. Azarenka also has problems on serve in the last round. 12 d faults and a low 1st serve %.
Back Azarenka around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
WTA Rome
Svitolina 1.74 v Kalinskaya
Due to start at 6 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Svitolina.
Svitolina lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win over Errani in the 2nd round. Q finals of the French Open. Title in Strasbourg.
Kalinskaya reached the 3rd round last season. She easily beat a very poor Tauson in the 2nd round.
12 month stats favour Svitolina overall. 3 month stats are close but favour Kalinskaya. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Svitolina around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
11th May
WTA Rome
Haddad Maia v Keys 1.85
Due to start at 1 pm
Maia 1-0 (Oct 2023, indoor, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Maia.
Maia reached the q finals last year. She needed 3 sets against Xinyu Wang in the 2nd round. Q finals in Madrid. Semis at the French Open.
Keys reached the 4th round last season. 3 sets win over Osorio in the 2nd round. Semis in Madrid. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 month clay stats favour Maia overall. Their win %'s in the last 3 months are the same but stats favour Maia.
Lay Keys around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10. Good chance of 3 sets.
WTA Rome
Cirstea v Vondrousova 1.41
Due to start at 3 pm
Cirstea 3-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Cirstea in 3. She won their last 3 matches. They never met on clay. Clay win %'s are better for Vondrousova.
Cirstea reached the 2nd round last year. She beat a disappointing Fruhvirtova in the 2nd round and didn't serve well herself. 3rd round in Madrid.
Vondrousova reached the 4th round last season. 3 sets win over Bogdan in the 2nd round. Semis in Stuttgart. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 month stats favour Vondrousova and 3 month stats favour her on serve.
Back Vondrousova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
10th May
WTA Rome
Azarenka 1.48 v Linette
Due to start at 1 pm
Azarenka 3-2. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Linette in 3. Azarenka won on hard in Aug 2023, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Linette.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last year. 3rd round in Madrid. Q finals in Charleston.
Linette reached the 3rd round last season. 2 sets win over Zhu in the 1st round. Final in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston.
12 month stats are better for Linette on serve. 3 month stats also favour Linette on serve. Return stats are better for Azarenka. Recent performances on clay are better for Linette.
Lay Azarenka around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Rome
Sherif v Paolini 1.45
Due to start at 7 pm
Sherif 1-0 (June 2023, clay, Sherif in 3). Clay win %'s are even.
Sherif lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Martic in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH final last week. 3rd round in Madrid. Semis in Palermo. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid 2023.
Paolini reached the 2nd round last season, losing to eventual champion, Rybakina. 4th round in Madrid. Q finals in Stuttgart. Final in Palermo. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats favour Paolini. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Paolini around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
9th May
WTA Rome
Avanesyan v Cristian 1.77
Due to start at 1.45 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Cristian.
Avanesyan beat Bucsa in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached the q finals in Lausanne. Q finals in Budapest and 4th round at the French Open.
Cristian lost in the qual rounds. She reached the 3rd round in Madrid as qualifier. Q final in Charleston. CH semi and 2 q finals in Sep.
12 month WTA stats are better for Cristian on serve.
Back Cristian around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
WTA Rome
Navarro 1.96 v Badosa
Due to start at 5 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are a little better for Navarro.
Navarro reached a CH q final last week. 3rd round in Madrid. Q final in Palermo. CH final in July. 2nd round of the French Open. Q final in Strasbourg.
Badosa reached the q finals last season. Easy win over Andreeva in the 1st round.
12 month and 3 month stats are better for Navarro.
Back Navarro around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
8th May
WTA Rome
Carle v Siegemund 1.65
Due to start at 1 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are fairly even.
Carle has come through the qual rounds. 3rd round in Madrid as qualifier. CH title in April. CH final and semi in Dec.
Siegemund has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Bogota.
12 month WTA stats are close on serve but slightly favour Siegemund. Return stats and predicted holds favour Carle. 3 month stats favour Carle.
Lay Siegemund around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.95. Chance of 3 sets.
WTA Rome
Saville v Tauson 1.60
Due to start at 4 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Tauson.
Saville reached the 2nd round in Madrid as lucky loser. Semis in Hamburg in July.
Tauson has come through the qual rounds. CH final in April. 3rd round at the French Open as qualifier.
12 month WTA stats are better for Tauson. 3 month stats favour her.
Back Tauson around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
7th May
WTA Rome
Trevisan v Putintseva 1.51
Due to start at 1 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Trevisan in 3rd set tie break. Putintseva won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Putintseva.
Trevisan lost in the 2nd round last year. Q finals in Hamburg in July. Q final in Rabat in May.
Putintseva reached the 2nd round last year. Q finals in Madrid. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rabat.
12 month WTA stats are better for Putintseva. 3 month stats also favour her.
Back Putintseva around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60. Trevisan is a very capable clay player but seems to have lost her way this season.
WTA Rome
Bogdan v Fernandez 1.59
Due to start at 2:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Bogdan.
Bogdan lost to Garcia in the 2nd round last year. CH title in Sep. Q finals in Lausanne. CH title in July.
Fernandez lost in the 1st round last season. 3rd round in Madrid. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Fernandez on serve. Return stats favour Bogdan. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Fernandez.
Back Fernandez around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
6th May
The main draw matches in Rome start tomorrow. I have selected 2 matches from the qualifying rounds.
WTA Rome, qualifying
Cristian 1.48 v Baptiste
Due to start at 12:00
Baptiste 1-0 (June 2021, grass, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Cristian.
Cristian reached the 3rd round in Madrid as qualifier. Q final in Charleston. CH semi and 2 q finals in Sep.
Baptiste reached the 2nd round in Bogota. Her best results were in ITF's.
Back Cristian around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.40.
I favour Cristian to win in 2 sets.
Update: There were no bp's until Cristian served at 4-5. She faced 2 bp's and was broken. I laid Baptiste before the start of set 2.
Baptiste took a 3-0 lead in set 2. I added to my lay of her at 2-0. Cristian broke back. I removed some of my liability. I wanted to try to give Cristian the chance to get another break.
When the score reached 4-4, I hedged for a small profit.
Baptiste was broken when serving at 5-5. When she served for the set, Cristian faced 3 bp's but held to take the set. I stayed away from set 3. Cristian took a 5-2 lead. She was broken when serving for the match but immediately broke again to win.
Cristian won 4-6, 7-5, 6-3.
WTA Rome, qualifying
Danilovic 1.41 v Rakhimova
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Rakhimova 4-1. Most recent Oct 2022, indoor, Rakhimova in 2. Danilovic won on clay in July 2021, 3 sets. Rakhimova won on clay in May 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Danilovic.
Danilovic lost in the qual rounds last year. 2nd round in Madrid as qualifier. CH semi in Apr. CH q final in March. CH title in July. 3rd round at the French Open as qualifier.
Rakhimova lost in the 1st round as lucky loser last season. Semis in Bogota in April. 3rd round at the French Open.
WTA stats in the last year are better for Danilovic. 3 month stats favour her.
Back Danilovic around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
I favour Danilovic to win in 3 sets
Update: Danilovic broke first to lead 3-2. I laid her but kept stake small as she had not faced a bp. She held to lead 4-2. When Rakhimova faced a bp in the next game, I hedged for a small loss. She was not performing well.
Danilovic broke to lead 5-2 and easily served out the set.
Rakhimova manged to perform worse in set 2.
Danilovic won 6-2, 6-0.
5th May
WTA Challenger Saint Malo
Paquet v Boisson 1.43
Due to start at 2 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Boisson in 3. Paquet won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Boisson.
Paquet lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Zarazua in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round as slight favourite. She beat Stearns in 3 sets as huge underdog in the q final. She beat poorly serving Naef in 2 sets in the semis. She reached 2 ITF semis in April.
Boisson beat Gracheva in 2 sets in the 1st round. She lost just 1 game to Sierra in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Volynets as slight underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over Cornet in the semi final. ITF title and semi in April. 2 ITF titles in March.
12 month CH stats and also stats on all tours favour Boisson. Stats for the tournament favour her on serve.
Back Boisson around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.
ATP Madrid
Aliassime v Rublev 1.42
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Rublev 4-1. Most recent Feb 2024, indoor, Rublev in 3. Aliassime won indoors in Feb 2022, 2 sets. Rublev won their only match on clay in 2018, 3 sets.
Aliassime lost in the 2nd round last season. He needed 3 sets against Nishioka in the 1st round. Easy win over Mannarino in the 2nd round. He beat Mensik who retired in the 3rd round. He beat Ruud in straight sets as underdog. Sinner withdrew before their q final. Lehecka retired in the first set in the semis. Q finals in Munich.
Rublev reached the 4th round last year. Easy win over Bagnis in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Fokina in the 3rd round. Easy win over Griekspoor in the 4th round. He beat Alcaraz in 3 sets as huge underdog in the q final. 2 sets win over Fritz in the semis. Title in Bastad in July. 3rd round of the French Open. 4th round in Rome. Final in Banja Luka in Apr 2023.
12 month stats are better for Rublev. 3 month stats are a little better for Aliassime.
Aliassime has had 2 opponents retire and another withdraw. Maybe its his lucky tournament!
Back Rublev around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
4th May
WTA Saint Malo Challenger
Naef 1.34 v Paquet
Due to start at 11:30 am
1st meeting. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Paquet.
Naef had an easy win over Zakharova in the 1st round. Another easy win over Saville as underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Burel in the q final. CH 2nd round as qualifier in March.
Paquet lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Zarazua in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round as slight favourite. She beat Stearns in 3 sets as huge underdog in the q final. She reached 2 ITF semis in April.
12 month stats on all tours favour Naef overall.
Back Naef around 1.85 to 1.95.
WTA Madrid
Swiatek 1.34 v Sabalenka
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Swiatek 6-3. Most recent Nov 2023, hard, Swiatek in 2. Sabalenka won on clay in May 203, 3 sets. Swiatek won on clay in Apr 2023, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are a little better for Swiatek.
Swiatek reached the final last season. Easy win over Wang in the 2nd round. Another easy win over Cirstea in the 3rd round. She lost 1 game to Sorribes Tormo in the 4th round. She lost the 1st set to Haddad Maia in the q final but lost just 2 games in the next 2 sets. Easy win over Keys in the semis. Semis in Stuttgart. Title at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Sabalenka won the title last season. She needed 3 sets against Linette in the 2nd round. She also needed 3 sets against Montgomery. Another 3 set match with Collins in the 4th round. In the q final, she did not face a bp against Andreeva. 3rd set tie break win over Rybakina in the semi final. Semis at the French Open.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Swiatek. Stats for the tournament are better for Swiatek.
Lay Swiatek around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Swiatek around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
3rd May
ATP Madrid
Fritz v Rublev 1.74
Due to start at 3 pm
Fritz 5-4. Most recent Sep 2023, indoor, Fritz in 2. Rublev won on clay in April 2023, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Rublev.
Fritz reached the 4th round last year. He beat Darderi in 2 close sets in the 2nd round. Surprisingly easy win over Baez in the 3rd round. He didn't face a bp against Hurkacz in the 4th round. He beat Cerundolo in the q final. Final in Munich last week. 3rd round at the French Open. Semis in Geneva in May.
Rublev reached the 4th round last year. Easy win over Bagnis in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Fokina in the 3rd round. Easy win over Griekspoor in the 4th round. He beat Alcaraz in 3 sets as huge underdog in the q final. Title in Bastad in July. 3rd round of the French Open. 4th round in Rome. Final in Banja Luka in Apr 2023.
12 and 3 month stats are pretty even. Stats for the tournament are better for Fritz on serve and favour Rublev on return. This will be very close. Return stats could be the difference today.
Back Rublev around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
ATP Madrid
Aliassime v Lehecka 1.75
Due to start at 7 pm
Lehecka 1-0 (Jan 2023, hard, 4 sets). 12 month win %'s are quite even.
Aliassime lost in the 2nd round last season. He needed 3 sets against Nishioka in the 1st round. Easy win over Mannarino in the 2nd round. He beat Mensik who retired in the 3rd round. He beat Ruus in straight sets as underdog. Sinner withdrew before their q final. Q finals in Munich.
Lehecka lost in the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Medjedovic in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Monteiro in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Nadal in the 4th round. He beat Medvedev in the q final. Medvedev retired after losing set 1. Q finals in Umag in July. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 month stats are pretty even on serve and favour Aliassime on return. 3 month stats favour Lehecka on serve.
Back Lehecka around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
2nd May
ATP Madrid
Medvedev 1.60 v Lehecka
Due to start at 7 pm
Medvedev 1-0 (July 2023, grass, Lehecka retired). Clay win %'s are better for Medvedev.
Medvedev reached the 4th round last year. He needed 3 sets against Arnaldi in the 2nd round. He was close to losing to Korda in the 3rd round. He lost the first set. 2 sets win over Bublik in the 4th round. Title in Rome.
Lehecka lost in the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Medjedovic in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Monteiro in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Nadal in the 4th round. Q finals in Umag in July. 2nd round of the French Open.
12 month stats favour Medvedev. Stats for the tournament are better for Lehecka.
Lay Medvedev if he gets an early break of serve and remove liability if Lehecka then gets a bp. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Madrid
Rybakina 1.99 v Sabalenka
Due to start at 8:30 pm
Sabalenka 5-3. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Rybakina in 2. Sabalenka won on hard in Nov 2023, 3 sets. 7 of their matches were on hard. Clay win %'s are pretty even. Rybakina is unbeaten in the last 12 months.
Rybakina lost in the 2nd round last year. Straight sets wins over Bronzetti and Sherif. She beat Bejlek in 2 sets in the 4th round. She saved 2 match points against Putintseva in the q final. Title in Stuttgart last week. 3rd round at the French Open. Title in Rome.
Sabalenka won the title last season. She needed 3 sets against Linette in the 2nd round. She also needed 3 sets against Montgomery. Another 3 set match with Collins in the 4th round. In the q final, she did not face a bp against Andreeva. Semis at the French Open.
Rybakina was not great in the last round. Her second serve was poor. She faced 10 bp's but was only broken 3 times in 3 sets. Perhaps she is ready for a rest.
12 month stats are better for Rybakina. 3 month stats also favour her. She got out of jail in the previous round. I give Sabalenka the edge today.
Lay Rybakina around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.
1st May
ATP Madrid
Rublev v Alcaraz 1.25
Due to start at 3 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Alcaraz in 2. Rublev won on hard in Dec 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Alcaraz.
Rublev reached the 4th round last year. Easy win over Bagnis in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Fokina in the 3rd round. Easy win over Griekspoor in the 4th round. Title in Bastad in July. 3rd round of the French Open. 4th round in Rome. Final in Banja Luka in Apr 2023.
Alcaraz won the title last season. Easy win over Shevchenko in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Wild in the 3rd round. He needed a 3rd set tie break against Struff. Semis in Buenos Aires. Semis at the French Open.
12 month stats are fairly even on serve and strongly favour Alcaraz on return. 3 month stats favour Rublev on serve and strongly favour Alcaraz on return.
Alcaraz has been broken 5 times. Rublev was broken twice.
Lay Alcaraz and remove liability at 1.55. Back Alcaraz around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.
WTA Madrid
Andreeva v Sabalenka 1.57
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Sabalenka 1-0 (May 2023, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Sabalenka.
Andreeva reached the 4th round last year. She needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Noskova in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Vondrousova in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Paolini in the 4th round. Q finals in Rouen last week. 3rd round of the French Open.
Sabalenka won the title last season. She needed 3 sets against Linette in the 2nd round. She also needed 3 sets against Montgomery. Another 3 set match with Collins in the 4th round. Semis at the French Open.
12 month clay stats are better for Sabalenka on serve. Return stats are much stronger for Andreeva. Stats for the tournament show the same pattern. Sabalenka has been more solid on serve. Andreeva has been broken 17 times in 4 matches. Sabalenka was broken 6 times in 3 matches with 4 of those coming against Collins in the last round.
Back Sabalenka around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
30th April
ATP Madrid
Hurkacz v Fritz 1.85
Due to start at 11:30 am
Fritz 3-2. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Fritz retired. Fritz won on hard in Jan 2023, 2 tie breaks. All their sets were tight. Clay win %'s are better for Hurkacz.
Hurkacz reached the 3rd round last year. 2 sets win over Draper in the 2nd round. He beat Altmaier in 2 close sets in the 3rd round. 3rd round in Monte Carlo. Title in Estoril. 3rd round at the French Open.
Fritz reached the 4th round last year. He beat Darderi in 2 close sets in the 2nd round. Surprisingly easy win over Baez in the 3rd round. Final in Munich last week. 3rd round at the French Open. Semis in Geneva in May.
12 month stats are better for Hurkacz on serve. Return stats were much better for Fritz. 3 month stats are quite even.
Hurkacz has raised his clay level in 2024. He has a good chance today.
Lay Fritz around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
Update: There were no bp's in the first set. The set went to a tie break that Fritz won comfortably. I laid Fritz.
Humbert was broken in the first game of the 2ndd set! As he had not had a bp in the match to that point, I exited for the red. Humbert would not have a single bp in the match.
Fritz won 7-6, 6-4.
WTA Madrid
Keys v Jabeur 1.77
Due to start at 7 pm
Jabeur 2-0. Most recent Aug 2022, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2020, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are a little better for Jabeur.
Keys beat Begu in 2 tie breaks in the 2nd round. She beat Samsonova in 2 sets in the 3rd round. In the 4th round she beat Gauff as huge underdog in 3 sets. She reached the 2nd round of the French Open and 4th round in Rome.
Jabeur beat Schmiedlova in 3 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Fernandez in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Ostapenko in the 4th round. She reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Stuttgart. Title in Charleston in 2023.
12 month clay stats are better for Jabeur. 3 month stats also favour her. Stats for the tournament are close but favour Jabeur overall.
Back Jabeur around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
Update: Sakkari was broken in the 1st game of the match. I laid Jabeur. In the next game, Jabeur went 15-40 behind and I removed some of the liability. Jabeur recovered to hold.
In the next game, Sakkari was broken again and I hedged for around zero. Jabeur took the set 6-0.
In set 2, Sakkari was broken in the first game. Jabeur was now a set and a break ahead and I laid her. 3 games later, Sakkari broke back to get to 2-2. I removed most of my liability as Sakkari had only held once in the match. Sakkari took a late break of serve to take the set 7-5. I hedged. I dd not enter in set 3. Sakkari won it 6-1.
Sakkari won 0-6, 7-5, 6-1.
29th April
WTA Madrid
Andreeva 1.93 v Paolini
Due to start at 1:30 pm
1st meeting. 12 month clay win %'s are even.
Andreeva reached the 4th round last year. She needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Noskova in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Vondrousova in the 3rd round. Q finals in Rouen last week. 3rd round of the French Open.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. She lost 1 game in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. Q finals in Stuttgart this month. Final in Palermo. CH final in June and CH title in May. 2nd round in Rome.
12 month stats are better for Paolini on serve. Andreeva leads on return. In the last 3 months, Paolini leads on serve and return stats are even.
Lay Andreeva around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets.
WTA Madrid
Putintseva v Kasatkina 1.71
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Kasatkina 1-0 (July 2018, grass, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Kasatkina.
Putintseva reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Yuan in the 1st round. She came through the 2nd round when Zheng retired. 2 sets win over Dolehide in the 3rd round. CH semi in July. 3rd round of the French Open. Q finals in Rabat.
Kasatkina reached the 4th round last season. She needed 3 sets against Bucsa in the 2nd round. It was her first match on red clay since July. 2 sets win over Pavlyuchenkova in the 3rd round. Final in Charleston. Q finals in Palermo and 4th round at the French Open. 4th round in Rome.
12 month stats are better for Putintseva on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Kasatkina. Recent performances are better for Kasatkina. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Kasatkina around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
28th April
ATP Madrid
Rublev 1.55 v Davidovich Fokina
Due to start at 11:30 am
Rublev 3-0. Most recent May 2023, clay, 2 sets. He won on clay in Oct 2020, 4 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Rublev.
Rublev reached the 4th round last year. Easy win over Bagnis in the 2nd round. Title in Bastad in July. 3rd round of the French Open. 4th round in Rome. Final in Banja Luka in Apr 2023.
Fokina reached the 4th round last season. He beat Shang in 2 close sets in the 2nd round. 3rd round at the French Open. 3rd round in Rome.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Rublev.
Back Rublev around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Madrid
Garcia v Paolini 1.74
Due to start at 3 pm
Garcia 5-2. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Garcia in 3. Paolini won indoors in Nov 2023, 3 sets. Garcia won both their clay matches (both in 2022). Clay win %'s are better for Paolini.
Garcia reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Wang in the 2nd round. Semis in Rouen last week. 2nd round of the French Open. 3rd round in Rome.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. She lost 1 game in the 2nd round. Q finals in Stuttgart this month. Final in Palermo. CH final in June and CH title in May. 2nd round in Rome.
12 month stats favour Garcia on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Paolini. Its the same pattern in the last 3 months. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Paolini.
Back Paolini around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
27th April
WTA Madrid
Stephens v Sakkari 1.76
Due to start at 12:00
Sakkari 1-0 (Aug 2022, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Stephens lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Trevisan in 3 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Mertens in the 2nd round. She won the title last week in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat.
Sakkari reached the semis last season. Easy win over Vekic in the 2nd round. Semis in Charleston. 3rd round in Rome.
12 month stats are better for Sakkari on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Stephens. 3 month stats favour Sakkari on serve and predicted holds favour her.
Back Sakkari around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 165. Lay set 1 winner.
Update: Sakkari broke first to lead 3-1. I laid her. 2 games later, Sakkari broke again and I hedged for the loss.
Stephens served first in set 2 so I waited for her to have her service game before laying Sakkari. She was broken. I laid Sakkari who was now a set and a break ahead.
In the next game, Stephens broke back. I was not hopeful that Stephens would hold serve in the next game as she had been broken in her last 3 service games. I hedged and accepted the reduced red. Stephens would be broke twice more in the set.
Sakkari won 6-1, 6-3.
WTA Madrid
Fernandez v Jabeur 1.85
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Jabeur 2-0. Most recent June 2021, grass, 3rd set tie break. She won on hard in Aug 2020, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Jabeur.
Fernandez lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Potapova in the 1st round. 2nd round at the French Open.
Jabeur beat Schmiedlova in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Stuttgart. Title in Charleston in 2023.
12 month clay stats favour Jabeur overall. 3 month stats also favour her.
Back Jabeur around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
Update: Fernandez broke serve to lead 2-0. I backed Jabeur. 3 games later, Jabeur broke back to 15. I removed most of my liability.
Jabeur's serve came under pressure in 2 of her next 3 service games but she was not broken. Fernandez was broken when serving at 5-5. I removed my remaining liability. Jabeur successfully served for the set.
Fernandez served first in set 2. She had decent serve stats in the 1st set despite being broken twice. I laid Jabeur after the first set.
There were no bp's in the first 5 games. Fernandez then broke to 30 and I hedged. Fernandez broke again to take the set.
In set 3, Fernandez took a 2-0 lead and I backed Jabeur. Jabeur immediately broke back and I hedged. I did not enter again. Fernandez faced bp's in every service game in the 3rd set.
Fernandez broke to lead 4-2 but Jabeur won the next 4 games.
Jabeur won 7-5, 2-6, 6-4.
26th April
WTA Madrid
Alexandrova 1.50 v Krueger
Due to start at 11:30 am
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Krueger.
Alexandrova reached the 4th round last year. 3rd round at the French Open.
Krueger beat Hibino in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 2nd round in Charleston. Most of her clay matches have been in ITF's.
12 month stats are better for Alexandrova on serve. Recent performances are better for Alexandrova.
Back Alexandrova around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability 1.50.
Update: Alexandrova was broken in the first game. I backed her. There were no bp's in the next 3 games. Alexandrova served at 1-3 and faced 2 bp's but held. Had she been broken, I would have added a little to my back of her. In the next game, Kruger faced a bp and I remove some of the liability. Krueger held.
In Alexandrova's next service game, she again faced a bp and I hedged for a small red.
Alexandrova was broken again to lose the set.
My reason for favouring Alexandrova was her serving ability but she was not serving well. She had only managed to earn 1 bp on the Krueger serve. I stayed away from set 2.
In set 2, Alexandrova did not have a single bp and was broken once.
Krueger won 6-3, 6-3.
WTA Madrid
Kostyuk 1.22 v Sherif
Due to start at 1 pm
Kostyuk 2-1. Most recent Jan 2023, hard, Kostyuk in 2. She won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Sherif won on clay in 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Sherif.
Kostyuk lost in the 2nd round last year. She reached the final in Stuttgart last week. 3rd round in Rome.
Sherif reached the q finals last season. She beat Davis in 3 sets in the 1st round. Semis in Palermo. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 months stats are better for Sherif overall. Recent performances are better for Kostyuk.
Lay Kostyuk around 1.15 and remove liability at 1.40. Back Kostyuk around 1.85 to 2.00. Chance of 3 sets.
Update: Even though I was wanting 1.15 before laying Kostyuk, I place a small lay at the start as she was serving first. She saved 3 bp's in that first game but was broken. I removed a little of the liability. Sherif faced a bp in the next game but held. Kostyuk was broken in the next game and Sherif led 3-0. I hedged.
I laid Sherif. 2 games later, Sherif was broken. I hedged. Kostyuk was then broken for a third time and Sherif easily served for the set, holding to 15.
So, Kostyuk was broken 3 times in the set. She won less than half her service points.
At the start of set 2, Kostyuk served first and was broken to 30. She was clearly not performing as I had expected and I stayed out. Sherif held serve and then broke Kostyuk again. As Kostyuk had her only break of the 1st set when Sherif was a double break ahead (and because the price was low), I laid Sherif.
Sherif was broken in the next game! I hedged as I was not confident that Kostyuk would be able to hold. She faced a bp but did hold and actually broke Sherif again to get to 4-4.
Kostyuk was broken when serving at 5-5 and Sherif successfully served for the match.
Sherif won 6-2, 7-5.
25th April
WTA Madrid
Podoroska v Navarro 1.41
Due to start at 11:30 am
Navarro 1-0 (June 2023, grass, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Navarro.
Podoroska lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Siniakova in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH title in March. 2 CH semis in Nov. Semis in Budapest. CH semi in June. 2nd round of the French Open.
Navarro won an ITF title in Nov. Q finals in Palermo. CH final in July. 2nd round of the French Open. Q finals in Strasbourg in May.
12 month WTA stats are better for Navarro. Podoroska will be competitive. Navarro may start slowly as hasn't played on red clay for a while.
Lay Navarro around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Navarro around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Madrid
Mertens v Stephens 1.70
Due to start at 2:30 pm
H2H 2-2. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Mertens in 3. Stephens won on hard in Sep 2023, 2 sets. All their matches were on hard. Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Mertens reached the 4th round last year. Q finals in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open.
Stephens lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Trevisan in 3 sets in the 1st round. She won the title last week in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat.
12 month WTA stats are better for Stephens overall. 3 month stats also favour her. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Stephens around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
24th April
WTA Madrid
Linette v Cocciaretto 1.57
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Cocciaretto 1-0 (Oct 2022, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are a little better for Cocciaretto in the last year.
Linette reached the 3rd round last year. Reached the final in Rouen last week. 3rd round in Charleston. 3rd round in Rome.
Cocciaretto reached the 2nd round last season. CH semi in March. Title in Lausanne in July. 3rd round at the French Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Linette on serve. 3 month stats favour her. She could be tired after last week.
Lay Cocciaretto around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.
There's a chance Linette tired if it's a long match. Slight edge to Cocciaretto.
WTA Madrid
Frech v Cristian 1.66
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Frech 1-0 (Aug 2017, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s favour Cristian.
Frech reached the 2nd round as qualifier last year. 2nd round at the French Open. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier.
Cristian reached the 2nd round last season. She has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Charleston. CH semi and 2 q finals in Sep.
12 month clay stats on all tours are fairly even on serve and favour Cristian on return. 3 month stats are better for Cristian. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Cristian.
Back Cristian around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.
23rd April
WTA Madrid
Begu 1.45 v L. Fruhvirtova
Due to start at 1 pm
Begu 1-0 (Feb 2020, hard, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are much better for Begu.
Begu reached the q finals last season. CH final in March. CH final in July. 3rd round at the French Open.
Fruhvirtova reached the 2nd round last year. CH 2nd round in March.
Back Begu around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
WTA Madrid
Kenin 1.84 v Schmiedlova
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Kenin 2-0. Most recent Jan 2019, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in Aug 2018, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Schmiedlova.
Kenin lost in the 1st round last season. 3rd round in Rome.
Schmiedlova lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. Final in Parma in Sep. Q finals in Budapest in July. 4th round at the French Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Schmiedlova.
Lay Kenin around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10. I favour Schmiedlova to win.
22nd April
WTA Madrid
Osorio 1.43 v Danilovic
Due to start at 10:30 am
Osorio 1-0 (May 2021, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s favour Osorio.
Osorio reached the 3rd round last year. She won the title in Bogota this month. Q finals in Palermo. 2nd round of the French Open as lucky loser. 4th round in Rome.
Danilovic lost in the qual rounds last season. CH semi this month. CH q final in March. CH title in July. 3rd round of the French Open as qualifier.
12 month WTA stats are better for Danilovic on serve. Return stats favour Osorio. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Osorio around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Madrid
Cristian 1.32 v Kessler
Due to start at 12:00
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Cristian.
Cristian reached the 2nd round last year. Q finals in Charleston. Q finals in Parma in Sep. CH semi and q final in Sep.
Kessler reached an ITF q final in May. Most of her clay matches were in ITF or below.
12 month clay stats are stronger for Cristian.
Back Cristian around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.
21st April
WTA Stuttgart
Rybakina 1.41 v Kostyuk
Due to start at 12:00
Kostyuk 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Rybakina in 2. Kostyuk won on hard in 2023 (3 sets) and in 2017 (2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the 2nd round last season. She had a very tight 3 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. Another tight 3 setter with Paolini in the q final. Yet another 3 setter against Swiatek. 3rd round at the French Open. Title in Rome.
Kostyuk beat Siegemund in 3 sets. She faced 20 bp's and was broken 7 times. She hit FIFTEEN d faults. She played better in the 2nd round against Zheng, who was terrible. Kostyuk still hit 8 d faults. Another poor match on serve in the q final with Gauff. Both players struggled and Kostyuk hit another 10 d faults. She won in a 3rd set tie break. She actually served pretty well in the semi final and beat Vondrousova in 2 sets. She reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2021 but has played very few clay matches since and had little success.
12 month stats are better for Rybakina on serve and favour Kostyuk on return. predicted holds favour Rybakina. Stats for the tournament are better for Rybakina on serve but Kostyuk has been much better on return.
Most players have struggled with serve this week (more than usual).
Back Rybakina around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.
ATP Barcelona
Tsitsipas v Ruud 1.97
Due to start at 3 pm
Tsitsipas 4-2. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Tsitsipas in 2. Ruud won on hard in Feb 2024, 2 sets. He won on clay in May 2021, 2 sets. Only their first meeting which was in 2016 went to 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Tsitsipas.
Tsitsipas reached the final last season. He beat Ofner in 2 sets in the 2nd round. He beat Baena in 2 close sets in the 3rd round. He needed a 3rd set tie break against Acosta in the q final. Also needed 3 sets against Lajovic in the semi final. He won the title in Monte Carlo last week. Q finals at the French Open. Semis in Rome and q finals in Madrid.
Ruud reached the 3rd round last season. He beat Muller in 2 sets in the 2nd round. Easy win over Thompson in the 3rd round. He beat Arnaldi in 2 sets in the q final. He beat Etcheverry in 2 close sets in the semis. He reached the final in Monte Carlo. Semis in Estoril. Final in Bastad and final of the French Open. Semis in Rome.
12 month stats favour Tsitsipas on serve and return stats favour Ruud. Predicted holds are close but favour Tsitsipas. Stats for the tournament are close on serve but strongly favour Ruud on return. In their final last week, Ruud made an awful start but was more competitive in the 2nd set. Ruud has not lost a set this week. Tsitsipas needed 3 sets in the last 2 rounds. He has been on court 73 minutes more this week. This final will be more competitive.
Lay Tsitsipas around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
20th April
WTA Stuttgart
Swiatek 1.24 v Rybakina
Due to start at 1 pm
Rybakina 3-2. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Swiatek in 2. Rybakina won on clay in 2023, Swiatek retired. She won on hard twice in 2023, 2 sets each time. Clay win %'s are a little better for Swiatek.
Swiatek won the title last year. Fairly comfortable win over Mertens in the 2nd round. She was broken twice. Close opening set with Raducanu in the q final. She won in 2 sets. Title at the French Open. Q finals in Rome and final in Madrid.
Rybakina reached the 2nd round last season. She had a very tight 3 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. Another tight 3 setter with Paolini in the q final. She was a break behind in set 3. 3rd round at the French Open. Title in Rome.
Rybakina is not at her best but is fighting hard. Swiatek should have too much variety and consistency for her. If Rybakina can make a decent start, she can keep it close.
Lay Swiatek around 1.15 and remove liability around 1.30. Back Swiatek above 1.85.
WTA Stuttgart
Kostyuk v Vondrousova 1.48
Due to start at 2:30 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Kostyuk by walkover. Vondrousova won on clay in April 2023, 2 sets. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Vondrousova.
Kostyuk beat Siegemund in 3 sets. She faced 20 bp's and was broken 7 times. She hit FIFTEEN d faults. She played better in the 2nd round against Zheng, who was terrible. Kostyuk still hit 8 d faults. Another poor match on serve in the q final with Gauff. Both players struggled and Kostyuk hit another 10 d faults. She won in a 3rd set tie break. She reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2021 but has played very few clay matches since and had little success.
Vondrousova beat Vekic in 2 sets in the 1st round. IN the 2nd round she started poorly on serve but improved after being broken back in set 1. Easily took the 2nd set from Potapova. She beat Sabalenka in 3 close sets in the q final. Both struggled on serve but at the end it was Vondrousova who served better. She reached the 2nd round of the French Open. 4th round in Rome.
12 month and tournament stats favour Vondrousova.
Back Vondrousova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
19th April
WTA Stuttgart
Rybakina 1.55 v Paolini
Due to start at 11:30 am
Paolini 2-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Paolini by walkover. She won on hard in Aug 2023 when Rybakina retired! Rybakina won on clay in Rome 2023, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the 2nd round last season. She had a very tight 3 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. 3rd round at the French Open. Title in Rome.
Paolini lost just 1 game to Errani in the 1st round. She beat Jabeur in 2 sets. She reached the final in Palermo in July. CH final in June. 2nd round of the French Open. CH title in May.
12 month stats favour Rybakina on serve. return stats favour Paolini and predicted holds favour Rybakina.
Back Rybakina above 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Stuttgart
Kostyuk v Gauff 1.51
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Gauff 2-0. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in Jan 2022, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Gauff.
Kostyuk beat Siegemund in 3 sets. She faced 20 bp's and was broken 7 times. She hit FIFTEEN d faults. She played better in the 2nd round against Zheng, who was terrible. Kostyuk still hit 8 d faults. She reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2021 but has played very few clay matches since and had little success.
Gauff lost in the 2nd round last season. She hit FIFTEEN d faults in her 2=3 sets win over Vickery in the 2nd round. Q finals of the French Open.
12 month clay stats are better for Gauff on serve. She hadn't played on clay for a while so that could explain the poor performance in the last round. Back Gauff around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
18th April
WTA Rouen
Burel 1.72 v Ruse
Due to start at 1:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are even.
Burel needed 3 sets in the 1st round as 1.30 favourite. reached the final in Lausanne in July. Q finals in Palermo in July. Semis in Strasbourg.
Ruse has come through the qual rounds. Easy win over Hibino in the 1st round. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier.
12 month stats are better for Ruse. Stats in 2024 on all tours are better for Ruse. 1 month stats on all surfaces are stronger for Ruse. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Burel around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Stuttgart
Zheng 1.42 v Kostyuk
Due to start at 7pm
Zheng 1-0 (Aug 2023, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Zheng.
Zheng lost to Swiatek in the 2nd round last year. She beat Cirstea in 2 sets in the 1st round. Title in Palermo in July. 2nd round of the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Kostyuk beat Siegemund in 3 sets. She faced 20 bp's and was broken 7 times. She hit FIFTEEN d faults. She reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2021 but has played very few clay matches since and had little success.
12 month WTA stats are better for Zheng.
Back Zheng around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
17th April
WTA Rouen
Schmiedlova v Parry 1.36
Due to start at 1:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Parry.
Schmiedlova reached a CH final in Sep. Q finals in Budapest. 4th round at the French Open.
Parry reached a CH final in Dec. CH q final in Dec. CH final in Nov. Semis in Lausanne in July. CH title in May and CH semi in June.
12 month stats on all tours favour Parry overall. Recent performances on all surfaces favour Parry.
Back Parry around 1.85 to 2.00. Remove liability at 1.45.
WTA Rouen
Stephens 1.50 v Pliskova
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Stephens 6-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Stephens in 2. She won on clay in June 2021, 2 sets. Pliskova won on clay in 2018, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Stephens made a slow start in the 1st round against Stearns but won in 3. She reached the 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open and semis in Rabat.
Pliskova needed 3 sets against Polona Kudermetova in the 1st round. She reached the q finals in Stuttgart.
12 month clay stats are better for Pliskova on serve but favour Stephens overall. Stephens has the better ROI in the last year.
Back Stephens around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
16th April
WTA Rouen
Montgomery v Rus 1.55
Due to start at 12:00
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Rus.
Montgomery has come through the qual rounds. CH q final in March. CH semi in Dec.
Rus won the title in Hamburg in July. CH title in July. CH title in June. 2nd round in Madrid.
12 month WTA stats are a little better for Rus overall. Stats in Challengers/ITF's also favour Rus overall.
Back Rus around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
WTA Rouen
Cocciaretto v Garcia 1.94
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Garcia 3-0. Most recent July 2022, clay, 2 sets. All their matches were on clay. Cocciaretto took one of them to 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Cocciaretto.
Cocciaretto reached a CH semi in March. CH title in July. 3rd round of the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid.
Garcia reached the 2nd round of the French Open. 3rd rounds in Rome and Madrid.
12 month WTA stats are better for Garcia on serve. I don't expect Garcia to have an easy match. Cocciaretto has been winning matches as strong favourite but has not done so well against stronger opponents.
Lay Cocciaretto around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20.
15th April
WTA Stuttgart
Vickery v Sasnovich 1.91
Due to start at 2 :30 pm
Vickery 1-0 (Jan 2017, hard, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are better for Vickery.
Vickery has come through the qual rounds. Most of her clay matches were in ITF's.
Sasnovich has come through the qual rounds. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid.
12 month WTA stats are better for Vickery. recent performances also favour her.
Lay Sasnovich around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets but I favour Vickery to win.
WTA Rouen
Stephens 1.50 v Stearns
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Stephens 1-0 (May 2023, clay, 3rd set tie break). Clay win %'s are better for Stephens in the last year.
Stephens reached the 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open and semis in Rabat.
Stearns reached the 3rd round of the French Open. Q finals in Rabat. Final in Bogota in April 2023.
12 month WTA stats are better for Stephens on serve. Return stats are a little better for Stearns.
Back Stephens around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
14th April
ATP Challenger, Madrid
Riedi 1.69 v Napolitano
Due to start at 10 am
Riedi 1-0 (June 2021, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Napolitano.
Riedi did not lose a set in the first 3 rounds. Good win over Fonseca in the q final. He beat Rodionov in a 3rd set tie break in the semi final. CH q final in July.
Stats for the tournament favour Riedi on serve and favour Rodionov on return.
Napolitano has not lost a set. 2 tight sets win over Kopriva in the 2nd round. Beat Huesler in the q final as slight underdog. Kukushkin retired in the 2nd set in the semis. CH semi and q final in Sep. 2 CH q finals in July.
12 month CH stats are better for Napolitano overall. Stats for the tournament favour Riedi on serve. Return stats are much better for Napolitano. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Riedi around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00.
ATP Monte Carlo
Ruud v Tsitsipas 1.72
Due to start at 2 pm
Tsitsipas 3-2. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Ruud in 2. Tsitsipas won on hard in Dec 2022, 2 sets (exhibition). Ruud won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Tsitsipas won on clay in 2016. Clay win %'s are a little better for Tsitsipas.
Ruud reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He did not face a bp against Hurkacz in the 3rd round. He needed 3 sets against Humbert but easily won set 3. He had never taken a set from Djokovic in previous matches but beat him in 3 sets in the semis. He reached the semis in Estoril. Q final in Hamburg. Final in Bastad. Final of the French Open. Semis in Rome.
Tsitsipas reached the q finals last season. He beat Djere who retired in the 1st round. He lost just 1 game to Etcheverry in the 2nd round. He took a tight first set against Zverev and was 5-0 up in the 2nd set. He had 2 match points in the next game but ended up needing a tie break to take the set. Straight sets win over Khachanov in the q final. He beat Sinner in 3 sets. Sinner suffered from cramp (and a bad line call ) towards the end. He reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Rome. Q finals in Madrid and final in Barcelona.
12 month clay stats are pretty even. Slight edge to Tsitsipas. Stats for the tournament are also very even. Both players raised their levels yesterday. Players often suffer a "let down" after beating Djokovic. I think the fact that Ruud had never even taken a set from him before will make Ruud's win even more significant to Ruud.
Back Tsitsipas around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
13th April
Tsitsipas 5-3. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Sinner in 2. He won indoors in Feb 2023, 2 sets. Tsitsipas won on hard in Jan 2023, 5 sets. Tsitsipas won on clay in May 2022, 5 sets. Clay win %'s are fairly even.
Tsitsipas reached the q finals last season. He beat Djere who retired in the 1st round. He lost just 1 game to Etcheverry in the 2nd round. He took a tight first set against Zverev and was 5-0 up in the 2nd set. He had 2 match points in the next game but ended up needing a tie break to take the set. Straight sets win over Khachanov in the q final. He reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Rome. Q finals in Madrid and final in Barcelona.
Sinner reached the semis last season. He lost 3 games to Korda in the 2nd round. Beat Struff in 2 sets in the 3rd round. In the q final, I expected Rune to be tired after playing 2 matches the previous day. Sinner seemed to be the stronger player but Rune was keeping the sets close. After some drama involving the crowd and a couple of violations for Rune, supervisor called ETC , Sinner seemed distracted and Rune played well to take the 2nd set. 4th round in Rome. Q finals in Barcelona.
12 month clay stats are better for Sinner. Stats for the tournament favour Sinner on serve and Tsitsipas on return. Sinner has been broken just once this week. Tsitsipas won 3 of their 4 clay matches but they have not met on this surface since Sinner's improvement in the last year.
Lay Sinner around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Sinner around 1.90 to 2.00.
Update: Tsitsipas broke first to lead 2-1. I laid him. There were no bp's in the next 4 games and I reduce my position. If Tsitsipas held on for the set, I would be laying him again. There were no more bp's in the set which Tsitsipas won 6-4. I laid Tsitsipas.
In set 2, Sinner held easily and then broke Tsitsipas to 15. I took some of my liability out. When Tsitsipas served at 1-4, Sinner had a bp and I hedged evenly.
Sinner served for the set at 5-3 and saved 5 bp's before holding.
In set 3, Sinner broke in the first game. He had 2 bp's for a double break lead but he couldn't take them. Strictly speaking he DID take one of them but a bad call from the umpire gave the point to Tsitsipas. Sinner was cramping towards the end of the match.
Tsitsipas did break back to 4-4 and then broke again to take the match.
ATP Monte Carlo
Djokovic 1.44 v Ruud
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Djokovic 5-0. Most recent June 2023, clay, straight sets. Ruud has not taken a set from Djokovic. They met 3 times on clay. Clay win %'s are better for Djokovic.
Djokovic reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Safiullin in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round, he was behind for most of the 1st set against Musetti. He won in 2 sets. Straight sets win over De Minaur. Title at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Ruud reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He did not face a bp against Hurkacz in the 3rd round. He needed 3 sets against Humbert but easily won set 3. He reached the semis in Estoril. Q final in Hamburg. Final in Bastad. Final of the French Open. Semis in Rome.
Stats for the tournament are better for Ruud on serve. 12 month stats are pretty even on serve and favour Djokovic on return.
Back Djokovic around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
Update: Djokovic was broken in the first game. He did not reach the target price but I placed a small back on him. 4 games later, he was broken again and I added to my position on him. he got one of the breaks back in the very next game and I remove some of my liability. There were no more bp's in the set which Ruud took 6-4.
I added to be back of Djokovic at the start of set 2. He held, boke and held again for a 3-0 lead. I removed my liability. He would break again to easily take the set 6-1.
In set 3 it was Ruud's turn to hold, break and hold for a 3-0 lead. After his break, I added a little to my position on Djokovic. Djokovic broke serve and then held to get back to 4-4 and I hedged. Surprisingly, Ruud won the next 2 games to take the match.
Ruud won 6-4, 1-6, 6-4.
12th April
ATP Monte Carlo
Djokovic 1.28 v De Minaur
Due to start at 1:30 pm
H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, De Minaur in 2. Djokovic won on hard in Jan 2023, straight sets. Clay win %'s are better for Djokovic.
Djokovic reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Safiullin in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round, he was behind for most of the 1st set against Musetti. He won in 2 sets. Title at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
De Minaur reached the 2nd round last year. Surprisingly easy win over Wawrinka in the 1st round. He struggled against Griekspoor in the 2nd round and won in 3 sets. 2 sets win over Popyrin in the 3rd round. Q finals in Barcelona.
Djokovic has not won this tournament since 2015 and has not gone past the q finals since then. 12 month clay stats are better for Djokovic and stats for the tournament also favour him. De Minaur 1st round performance will have dragged his stats down.
Lay Djokovic around 1.15 to 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back Djokovic above 1.80.
ATP Monte Carlo
Humbert v Ruud 1.35
Due to start at 3 pm
Humbert 3-1. Most recent June 2022, grass, 4 sets. He won indoors in Nov 2020, 3rd set tie break. Ruud won on clay in Sep 2020, 3 sets. 12 month clay win %'s are a little better for Humbert.
Humbert lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. He beat Coria in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Zhang in the 2nd round. He beat Sonego in 3 sets in the 3rd round. 2nd round at the French Open. 2 CH titles in May.
Ruud reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He did not face a bp against Hurkacz in the 3rd round. He reached the semis in Estoril. Q final in Hamburg. Final in Bastad. Final of the French Open. Semis in Rome.
12 month clay stats are quite even on serve. Return stats favour Ruud. Tournament stats are better for Ruud.
Back Ruud around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.
11th April
ATP Monte Carlo
Zverev 1.86 v Tsitsipas
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Tsitsipas 9-5. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Zverev in 2. Tsitsipas won indoors in Nov 2023, 2 sets. He won on clay in May 2022, 3 sets. Zverev won on clay in May 2022, 3 sets. Tsitsipas leads 4-1 on clay. Clay win %'s are close but favour Tsitsipas.
Zverev reached the 3rd round last year. 2 sets win over Ofner in the 2nd round. Title in Hamburg. Q finals in Bastad in July. Semis of the French Open. Semis in Geneva. 4th rounds in Rome and Madrid.
Tsitsipas reached the q finals last season. He beat Djere who retired in the 1st round. He lost just 1 game to Etcheverry in the 2nd round. He reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Rome. Q finals in Madrid and final in Barcelona.
12 month stats are better for Tsitsipas. Return stats are very even. Results in the last month are better for Zverev. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Tsitsipas around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.
ATP Monte Carlo
Sonego v Humbert 1.53
Due to start at 3:30 pm
H2H 2-2. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Humbert in 3. Sonego won both their clay matches in 2023. Straight sets at the French Open and 3 sets in Monte Carlo. Clay win %'s are better for Humbert.
Sonego reached the 2nd round last season. He lost in the qual rounds this week. He beat Aliassime as underdog in the 2nd round. Semis in Umag in July. 4th round at the French Open. 3rd round in Rome.
Humbert lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. He beat Coria in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Zhang in the 2nd round. 2nd round at the French Open. 2 CH titles in May.
12 month stats are better for Humbert. Stats for the tournament are better for Humbert. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Humbert around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
10th April
ATP Monte Carlo
Hurkacz 1.48 v Bautista Agut
Due to start at 12:00
Bautista Agut 3-2. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Hurkacz in 2. He won indoors in Feb 2023, 3 tight sets. Bautista Agut won on hard in Jan 2022, 3rd set tie break. Clay win %'s are better for Hurkacz.
Hurkacz reached the 3rd round last season. He beat Draper in a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round. Title in Estoril last week. 3rd round of the French Open.
Bautista Agut reached the 2nd round last season. He has come through the qual rounds. He beat Acosta in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH final in Nov. 2nd round of the French Open. 3rd rounds in Madrid and Barcelona.
12 month clay stats are better for Hurk on serve and strongly favour Agut on return. Recent performances on all surfaces favour Agut. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Hurkacz around 1.25 to 1.30 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner. Agut has been in poor form for a while but more recently has shown an improvement. This should be a very tight match.
ATP Monte Carlo
Monfils v Medvedev 1.43
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Monfils 2-1. Most recent Mar 2022, hard, Monfils in 3. He won indoors in 2019, 3 sets. Medvedev won indoors in Feb 2019, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Medvedev.
Monfils beat lucky loser Vukic in 3 sets in the 1st round. He hasn't had a massive amount of clay success. He reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2019!
Medvedev reached the q final last season. Title in Rome. 4th round in Madrid.
12 month clay stats are better for Medvedev. Monfils will cause him a few problems.
Lay Medvedev around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Medvedev around 1.90 to 2.10.
9th April
ATP Monte Carlo
Hurkacz 1.77 v Draper
Due to start at 12:00
Hurkacz 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Draper in straight sets. Hurkacz won on clay in Apr 2023(Monte Carlo), 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Hurkacz.
Hurkacz reached the 3rd round last season. Title in Estoril last week. 3rd round of the French Open.
Draper reached the 2nd round last season. Q finals in Lyon.
12 month stats are better for Hurkacz on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Draper. Recent performances are better for Hurkacz.
Back Hurkacz around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
ATP Monte Carlo
Coric v Struff 1.93
Due to start at 3 pm
Struff 4-2. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Struff in 3rd set tie break. He won on clay in 2019, 5 sets. Clay win %'s are quite even.
Coric lost in the 1st round last year. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rome. Semis in Madrid.
Struff reached the q finals as qualifier last season. He beat Baez in the 1st round as underdog. Final in Madrid as qualifier.
12 month clay stats are almost identical. Struff seems to like conditions inn MC. Slight edge to him.
Lay Coric around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.
8th April
ATP Monte Carlo
Cerundolo 1.65 v Altmaier
Due to start at 11:30 am
H2H 1-1. Most recent July 2022, clay, Cerundolo in 3. Altmaier won on clay in 2019, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are a little better for Altmaier.
Cerundolo reached the 2nd round last year, losing in 3 sets to Berrettini. Semis in Rio. Semis in Bastad. 4th round at the French Open. Final in Lyon. Q finals in Rome and Barcelona.
Altmaier lost in the qual rounds. Q finals in Hamburg. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid.
12 month ATP stats are fairly even. recent performances are better for Cerundolo.
Back Cerundolo around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
Update: Cerundolo served first and went 15:40 behind. I was expecting him to win in 2 sets so I place a small back on him. he recovered to hold serve. There were no more break points until Altmaier served at 2-3. he was broken to 15. I removed the liability to leave a free bet on Cerundolo. Cerundolo faced a break point in the next game but held. He then broke serve to take the set.
I left the small free bet to run.
In the second set, Altmaier went a break ahead but Cerundolo broke back. Cerundolo took the set in a tie break.
Cerundolo won 6-2, 7-6.
ATP Monte Carlo
Tabilo 1.63 v O'Connell
Due to start at 1 pm
Tabilo 1-0 (Mar 2023, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Tabilo.
Tabilo reached the final in Santiago last month. Most of his tennis is played in Challengers. CH title and semi final in Nov.
O'Connell has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Geneva. Semis in Munich in April. Q finals in Marrakech in 2023.
12 month ATP stats are quite even on serve. Return stats are stronger for Tabilo.
Back Tabilo around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
Update: There was just 1 break in the first set and went to Tabilo. In set 2, he went a break ahead. O'Connell broke back to get to 4-4 but was immediately broken again.
We never got near my target price. No trade.
Tabilo won 6-3, 6-4.
7th April
ATP Marrakech
Carballes Baena v Berrettini 1.44
Due to start at 3 pm
Berrettini 2-1. Most recent Oct 2022, hard, Berrettini in 2. Baena won indoors in 2022, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Berrettini.
Baena won the title last season. He had an easy win in the 1st round. He beat Evans in 2 close sets in the 2nd round. He beat De Alboran in 3 sets in the q final. 2 sets win over Kotov. 2nd round in Cordoba. CH title in Sep. 3rd round in Rome.
Berrettini lost just 3 games in the 1st round. He beat Munar in 3 sets in the 2nd round. He beat Sonego in 2 close sets in the q final. He needed 3 sets against in form Navone in the semis. He reached the 3rd round in Monte Carlo in April 2023. He has had injury issues for months. He reached a CH final on hard in March.
12 month clay state are better for Berrettini. Stats for the tournament favour him on serve.
Back Berrettini around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.
Update: Baena broke first to lead 3-1. We didn't quite get the target price but I backed Berrettini. I often back after a break of serve but if I don't get my target entry price, I reduce my stake a little. Berrettini broke back in the next game (this is why I back after the break!).
I removed some of the liability. Berrettini broke to lead 6-5 and I removed the remaining liability. He went 0-40 behind when serving for the set but recovered to hold.
I left the free bet to run. In set 2, Berrettini faced 3 break points in his 1st service game but recovered to hold. He won the next 4 games to lead 5-1 and held the lead to the end.
Berrettini won 7-5, 6-2.
WTA Charleston
Kasatkina v Collins 1.40
Due to start at 6 pm
Kasatkina 2-1. Most recent Aug 2021, hard, Collins in 3. Kasatkina won on hard in Feb 2021, 3 sets. She won on clay in May 2018, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Collins.
Kasatkina reached the semis last season. 3 sets win over Kessler in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kalinina in the 2nd round but she did not serve well, winning less than half her serve points. She beat Cristian in 3 sets in the q final. 3rd set tie break win over Pegula in the semis. Q finals in Palermo. 4th round at the French Open. 4th rounds in Rome and Madrid.
Collins lost in the 1st round last year. She had some strong results on clay in 2021 but has had little clay success since. She won the title in Miami last week and I thought she might not care about this week but she proved me wrong. Perhaps as this is her last season before she retires, she is trying to get the most from it. Easy win over Badosa in the 1st round. She beat Jabeur in 3 sets and Stephens in 2 sets yesterday. 2 sets win over Mertens in the q final. 2 sets win over a poor Sakkari in the semis.
Stats for the tournament are better for Collins on serve. She has lost just 1 set. With the exception of her match with Jabeur when she faced 12 bp's and was broken 4 times, she has been really hard to break. She was broken a total of 5 times in the other 4 matches. Kasatkina's return game has been strong this week.
It's hard to go against Collins. Back Collins around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
Update: Collins took a 2-0 lead after Kasatkina saved 3 bp's. She broke again at the end of the set. Even though Collins had a really low 1st serve percentage of 36% in the set she looked the stronger player. I did not lay in the 2nd set. She easily took the set 6-1.
Collins won 6-2, 6-1. No trade
6th April
WTA Charleston
Pegula 1.56 v Kasatkina
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Pegula 2-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Kasatkina by walkover. Pegula won on hard in Sep 2023, 2 easy sets. She won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are even.
Pegula reached the semis last season. She needed a 3rd set tie break against Anisimova in the 1st round. Easy win over Linette in the 3rd round. She beat Azarenka in a 3rd set tie break. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid.
Kasatkina reached the semis last season. 3 sets win over Kessler in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kalinina in the 2nd round but she did not serve well, winning less than half her serve points. She beat Cristian in 3 sets in the q final. Q finals in Palermo. 4th round at the French Open. 4th rounds in Rome and Madrid.
12 month clay stats favour Pegula on serve. Return stats are better for Kasatkina. Stats for the tournament favour Pegula on serve. I'm not sure what happened to her in the 2nd set against Azarenka but she bounced back well.
Back Pegula around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Charleston
Sakkari v Collins 1.78
Due to start at 7pm
Sakkari 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Collins in 2. Sakkari won on hard I Oct 2022, 3 sets. She won on hard in Aug 2018, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Collins.
Sakkari had a straight sets win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sharma in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Kudermetova in the q final. She reached the semis in Madrid.
Collins lost in the 1st round last year. She had some strong results on clay in 2021 but has had little clay success since. She won the title in Miami last week and I thought she might not care about this week but she proved me wrong. Perhaps as this is her last season before she retires, she is trying to get the most from it. Easy win over Badosa in the 1st round. She beat Jabeur in 3 sets and Stephens in 2 sets yesterday. 2 sets win over Mertens in the q final.
12 month clay stats are better for Sakkari on serve and favour Collins on return. Stats for the tournament are stronger for Sakkari. Collins has faced tougher opponents.
Lay Collins around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
5th April
WTA Charleston
Kudermetova v Sakkari 1.55
Due to start at 8:30 pm
Sakkari 3-1. Most recent Oct 2022, hard, Sakkari in 3. She won on hard in Jan 2022 and Aug 2021. Kudermetova won on hard in 2019. Clay win %'s are close but favour Kudermetova in the last 12 months.
Kudermetova lost in the 2nd round last season. She beat Rogers in 2 close sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Haddad Maia in the 3rd round. Semis in Rome and Madrid.
Sakkari had a straight sets win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sharma in the 3rd round. She reached the semis in Madrid.
Stats for the tournament are better for Sakkari. recent performances on all surfaces are better for Sakkari. Kudermetova has been in poor form for a while but has raised her level this week. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Sakkari around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Bogota
Osorio Serrano 1.74 v Maria
Due to start at 10:30 pm
Maria 1-0 (Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Osorio.
Osorio had a 2 sets win in the 1st round but was broken 5 times. Straight sets win over Todoni. She reached the q finals in Palermo in July. 2nd round at the French Open. 4th round in Rome. 3rd round in Madrid.
Maria won the title last season. Straight sets win over Bondar in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets against Riera in the 2nd round. She has reached 4 x WTA 2nd rounds since then.
12 month clay stats are better for Maria on serve. Return stats and predicted holds are better for Osorio. Maria has faced tougher opponents. Recent performances are better for Maria.
Lay Osorio around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
4th April
WTA Charleston
Collins 1.44 v Jabeur
Due to start at 4 pm
Collins 2-1. Most recent Mar 2022, hard, Collins in 2. Jabeur won on hard in Oct 2021, 2 sets. Collins won on clay in 2020, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Jabeur.
Collins lost in the 1st round last year. She had some strong results on clay in 2021 but has had little clay success since. She won the title in Miami last week and I thought she might not care about this week but she proved me wrong. Perhaps as this is her last season before she retires, she is trying to get the most from it. Easy win over Badosa in the 1st round.
Jabeur won the title last season. Q finals at the French Open. Semis in Stuttgart. Her form this season has been poor.
Back Collins around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
WTA Charleston
Svitolina 1.40 v Saville
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Svitolina 7-3. Most recent July 2019, grass, Svitolina in 2. She won their last 6 matches. Saville won their only clay meeting in 2016. Clay win %'s favour Saville.
Svitolina lost in the 1st round last year. Q finals at the French Open. Title in Strasbourg. CH semi in May.
Saville has come through the qual rounds. She beat Korpatsch in 3 sets in the 1st round. Semis in Hamburg in July as qualifier. 3rd round at the French Open.
Back Svitolina around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability around 1.50.
3rd April
WTA Charleston
Kasatkina 1.40 v Krueger
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Kasatkina 1-0 (Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Kasatkina.
Kasatkina reached the semis last season. Q finals in Palermo. 4th round at the French Open. 4th rounds in Rome and Madrid.
Krueger lost in the qual rounds last year. She beat Lee in 2 close sets in the 1st round. ITF final in April 2023.
12 month WTA stats are a little better for Krueger on serve. Kasatkina leads on return and predicted holds favour her. Recent performances are better for Kasatkina.
Back Kasatkina around 1.90 to 2.00.
WTA Bogota
Pigossi 1.51 v Bara
Due to start at 7:30 pm
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Bara.
Pigossi reached the q finals last season. She beat Podoroska in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH q final last week. CH title in Dec. CH q final in July.
Bara lost in the qual rounds last season. She beat Zavatska in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. ITF title in Oct. ITF semi in Oct. ITF semis in Sep. ITF title in April.
12 month WTA stats are stronger for Pigossi. 3 month stats on all tours also favour Pigossi on serve.
Back Pigossi around 1.95 to 2.10,
2nd April
Something I should have posted yesterday is that we need to note that most of the players this week are playing their first clay matches for a while. Most are making the switch from hard courts. We may get a few odd results in the first rounds.
WTA Charleston
Frech v Stephens 1.52
Due to start at 4 pm
Stephens 2-0. Most recent Sep 2022, clay, 3 sets. Both matches were on clay. Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Frech lost in the qual rounds last year. 2nd round at the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid as qualifier.
Stephens reached the 2nd round last season. 4th round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat. CH title in May.
12 month WTA stats are a little better for Frech on serve. Return stats favour Stephens. Recent performances on all surfaces favour Stephens.
Back Stephens around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.
Update: Stephens took the first set 6-0 and went a break up in the 2nd set. Frech did break straight back but was broken in her next 2 service games.
Stephens won 6-0, 6-2. No trade.
WTA Charleston
Cocciaretto 1.64 v Bogdan
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Bogdan 1-0 (May 2021, clay, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are even.
Cocciaretto reached a CH semi last week. Title in Lausanne in July. 3rd round at the French Open. CH title in April 2023.
Bogdan won a CH title in Sep. Q finals in Lausanne. CH title in July.
12 month WTA stats are better for Bogdan on serve. Return stats are much better for Cocciaretto. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Cocciaretto.
Back Cocciaretto around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.
Update: Bogdan broke to lead 3-1. There were no more breaks in the next 3 games. Before Cocciaretto served at 2-5, I hedged for a loss. I intended to lay in set 2 but just in case she was broken again, I got out. She was broken again. Note, I use this tactic quite often near the end of a set.
Bogdan was serving first in the 2nd set and I laid her. She was broken. I took some liability out. Cocciaretto held easily and broke again to lead 3-0. I hedged for a small profit. She would break again to take the set.
In the 3rd set, Bogdan broke in the 1st game. I like to lay a player when they're a break ahead in the deciding set but as it was so early in the set, I stayed out. Cocciaretto broke back to get to 3-3. She was broken in the next game and I laid Bogdan. I kept the liability quite low.
Bogdan was broken when she serve w=for the match. I hedged. Cocciaretto took the set in a tie break.
Cocciaretto won 2-6, 6-1, 7-6.
1st April
WTA Charleston
Linette v Martic 1.80
Due to start at 4 pm
Linette 3-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Martic in 2. Linette won on hard in 2021, 2 sets and in 2019, 3rd set tie break. Clay win %'s are better for Martic.
Linette reached the 3rd round last year. 3rd round in Rome and Madrid.
Martic reached the 2nd round of the French Open. Q finals in Madrid. She did not play many clay events in 2023.
12 month clay stats are quite close on serve. Return stats are a little better for Martic on return. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Martic around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
Update: Linette served at 1-1 and went 15-40 behind. I placed a small back on Linette (I favoured Martic to win but thought it would be close). Linette recovered to hold. My main target was to lay Linette. If I can build up some profit before I get my target entry price it will keep the liability lower.
3 games later, Martic was broken to 0. I hedged and laid Linette. There were no more breaks in the set which Linette took.
I already had a lay of Linette so did not add to the lay in set 2.
Martic served first and went 0-40 behind. She was not playing well and I hedged for a small loss. Martic recovered to hold but was broken in her next service game. There were no more break points in the match.
Linette won 6-3, 6-4.
WTA Charleston
Liu 1.68 v Rogers
Due to start at 8:30 pm
Rogers 2-0. Most recent Feb 2023, hard, 2 sets. She won on clay in this tournament in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Liu.
Liu lost in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds. Semis in Budapest in July. CH q final in July. 2nd round at the French Open.
Rogers reached the 3rd round last season. She doesn't play many clay events.
12 month clay stats are better for Rogers on serve. She has had some injury issues. Liu has been in decent form in the last month.
Back Liu around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
Update: I expected a lot more from Liu but she had a terrible match.
Liu was broken in the 3rd game. I backed her. Rogers held easily and then broke Liu again in the next game. I hedged for the loss. She would be broken again to lose the set 6-1.
I tried a small lay in set 1. Rogers was broken and I hedged. I had a small red overall. Rogers won the next 6 games!
Rogers won 6-1, 6-1.
31st March
WTA Challenger, Antalya
Maneiro v Begu 1.59
Due to start at 11 am
1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Begu.
Maneiro has been favourite in every round. In the last year she reached 2 CH q finals. Most of her best results are in ITF's.
Begu has not lost a set this week. She reached a CH final in July. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid. 3rd round in Charleston.
Stats for the tournament are better for Begu overall. This is her first tournament since Aug.
Back Begu around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
Update: Begu was broken in the 1st game. I placed a small back on Begu. In the next game, Maneiro faced a bp and I removed some liability. She recovered to hold for a 2-0 lead. In the next game, Begu was broken to 0.
I backed Begu again. In Maneiro's next service game she went 15-40 behind and I removed some liability. When Begu completed the break, I removed most of my liability. Begu was broken again to trail 2-5.
Maneiro had faced bp's in 2 of her 3 service games but as I already had virtually a free bet on Begu. Maneiro served for the set and saved 3 bp's before she took the game and the set.
Begu served first in set 2, so I let her have her service game. She held to 30 and I laid Maneiro (adding to my position on Begu). The next 2 games were easy holds. In the next game, Maneiro faced bp. I removed some liability. Begu missed 3 bp's in the game but took the 4th. I hedged.
Begu was broken back 3 games later. She broke again to take the set. I did not trade the 3rd set.
Begu was poor in the 3rd set.
Maneiro won 6-2, 4-6, 6-2.
ATP Miami
Dimitrov v Sinner 1.28
Due to start at 7 pm
Sinner 2-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Sinner in 3. he won on hard in Miami 2023, 2 sets. Dimitrov won on clay in 2020. Hard win %'s are better for Sinner.
Dimitrov reached the 3rd round last year. Tough 3 sets win over Tabilo in the 2nd round. He lost just 1 game to Hanfmann in the 3rd round. He beat Hurkacz in a 3rd set tie break. Straight sets win over Alcaraz in the q final. 3 sets win over Zverev in the semis. 4th round in Indian Wells and 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Shanghai. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Chengdu and 3rd round at the US Open.
Sinner reached the final last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He needed 3 sets to beat Griekspoor in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over O'Connell in the 4th round. Comfortable 2 sets win over Machac in the q final. He lost just 3 games to Medvedev in the semis. Semis in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. 4th round in Shanghai. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open and title in Toronto.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Sinner overall. 1 month stats are pretty even on serve but favour Sinner on return. Predicted holds favour Sinner. Stats for the tournament are better for Sinner overall. Dimitrov has been in strong form this season but raised his level even more this week.
Lay Sinner around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back sinner around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.50. 3 sets.
Update: Dimitrov's bubble was well and truly burst. Sinner broke to leads 3-2, I laid him. Sinner then held easily and in the next game Dimitrov faced bp. I hedged for a loss. For Dimitrov to have any chance, he was going to have to serve well. And he wasn't serving well.
Sinner broke again to take the set.
3 sets did not look likely at all. Not that is is always easy to predict that the second set will be the same as the first. In fact, second sets are often totally different. I just didn't want to lay Sinner so stayed out. Sinner took the 2nd set easily.
Sinner won 6-3, 6-1.
30th March
WTA Miami
Collins v Rybakina 1.63
Due to start at 6 pm
Rybakina 3-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Rybakina in 3. She won twice in Jan 2023 on hard in 3 sets. Collins won in 2021 on hard in 2 tie breaks.
Collins reached the 3rd round last season. She started slowly against Pera in the 1st round but easily took sets 2 and 3. Easy wins over Potapova and Avanesyan. 2 sets win over Cirstea in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the q final. Another straight sets win over Alexandrova in the semis. Q finals in Austin. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal.
Rybakina reached the final last season. She needed 3 sets against Tauson which was a surprise. She also needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Keys in the 4th round. In the q final she beat Sakkari in 3 close sets. The semi final with Azarenka was a little odd. Rybakina took a tight 1st set before losing the next set 0-6. She took the 3rd set in a tie break after being broken when serving for the match. Final in Doha and title in Abu Dhabi. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing and 3rd round at the US Open.
12 and 3 month stats re better for Rybakina on serve. return stats are close and predicted holds favour her. In the last month, Rybakina leads on serve but return stats and predicted holds favour Collins. Decent chance of 3 sets. Collins has won her last 12 sets in the tournament. She has been favourite in every round. Rybakina has needed 3 sets in 4 of her 5 matches. She won the 1st set in the last 4 rounds. All their previous meetings were very close. Stats for the tournament are better for Collins.
Lay Rybakina around 1.40 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.
Collins has a decent chance to take the title.
WTA Challenger San Luis Potosi
Potapova v Cocciaretto 1.40
Due to start at 11 pm
Cocciaretto 3-2. Most recent Mar 2023, clay, Cocciaretto in 2. She won on hard in Mar 2021, 2 sets. She won on clay in Sep 2020, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Cocciaretto.
Podoroska reached the 2nd round last season. She beat Kessler in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Stakusic in the 2nd round. Easy win in the q final. 2 CH semis in Nov. 2nd round in Hamburg in July. CH semi and q final in June and 2nd round at the French Open.
Cocciaretto won the title last season. Easy win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Zidansek in the 2nd round. Easy win in the q final. Title in Lausanne in July. 3rd round at the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid.
12 month CH stats favour Cocciaretto. Stats for the tournament favour Cocciaretto.
Back Cocciaretto above 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.
29th March
ATP Miami
Medvedev v Sinner 1.59
Due to start at 7 pm
Medvedev 6-4. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Sinner in 5. he won indoors in Nov 2023 and Oct 2023, 3 sets. He won their last 4 matches. Hard win %'s are a little better for Sinner.
Medvedev won the title last season. 2 sets win over Fucsovics in the 2nd round. He beat Norrie in straight sets in the 3rd round and Koepfer in 2 sets in the 4th round. another 2 sets win in the q final over Jarry. Final in Indian Wells. Semis in Dubai. Final of the Aus Open. Final in Beijing. Final at the US Open.
Sinner reached the final last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He needed 3 sets to beat Griekspoor in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over O'Connell in the 4th round. Comfortable 2 sets win over Machac in the q final. Semis in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. 4th round in Shanghai. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open and title in Toronto.
12, 3 and 1 month hard stats are better for Sinner on serve. Slight edge to Medvedev on return. Medvedev has not lost a set.
Lay Sinner around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.85. Back Sinner around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
ATP Miami
Dimitrov v Zverev 1.69
Due to start at 11 pm
Zverev 7-1. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Zverev in 2. He won their last 7 matches. Hard win %'s are even.
Dimitrov reached the 3rd round last year. Tough 3 sets win over Tabilo in the 2nd round. He lost just 1 game to Hanfmann in the 3rd round. He beat Hurkacz in a 3rd set tie break. Straight sets win over Alcaraz in the q final4th round in Indian Wells and 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Shanghai. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Chengdu and 3rd round at the US Open.
Zverev lost in the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Aliassime in the 2nd round. He beat Eubanks in 2 close sets in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Khachanov in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Marozsan in the q final. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in Los Cabos. Semis at the Aus Open. Semis in Beijing. Title in Chengdu. Q finals at the US Open and Semis in Cinci.
1 month and 3 month stats favour Dimitrov on serve. He played one of the matches of his career in the last round. It will be very hard to repeat that level today.
Back Zverev around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.
28th March
WTA Miami
Rybakina 1.36 v Azarenka
Due to start at 7 pm
Rybakina 3-0. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Azarenka retired in set 3. Rybakina won on hard in 2023 and 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the final last season. She needed 3 sets against Tauson which was a surprise. She also needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Keys in the 4th round. In the q final she beat Sakkari in 3 close sets. Final in Doha and title in Abu Dhabi. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing and 3rd round at the US Open.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Stearns in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Zheng as underdog in the 3rd round. She beat in form Boulter in 2 sets in the 4th round. She needed 3 sets against Putintseva in the q final. Poor loss to Dolehide in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha and 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month hard stats favour Rybakina on serve and favour Azarenka on return. 3 month stats are stronger for Rybakina. 1 month stats are better for Rybakina on serve and better for Azarenka on return. In all 3 time periods, predicted holds favour Rybakina. Rybakina has better stats on serve in the tournament.
Lay Rybakina around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Rybakina around 2.10 to 2.20.
WTA Miami
Alexandrova v Collins 1.60
Due to start at 00:30 am
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Collins.
Alexandrova reached the q finals last season. Straight sets win over Vekic in the 2nd round. She beat Pavlyuchenkova in 3 sets as underdog in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Swiatek in the 4th round. She beat Pegula in 3 sets as underdog in the q final. 3rd round in Doha and semis in Adelaide. Q finals in Tokyo. 3rd round at the US Open.
Collins reached the 3rd round last season. She started slowly against Pera in the 1st round but easily took sets 2 and 3. Easy wins over Potapova and Avanesyan. 2 sets win over Cirstea in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the q final. Q finals in Austin. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Collins. 1 month stats are pretty even on serve and strongly favour Collins on return. Stats for the tournament favour Collins. Alexandrova has really raised her level in this tournament and this can easily go to 3 sets.
Lay Collins around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.80. Back Collins around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
27th March
WTA Miami
Garcia v Collins 1.51
Due to start at 5 pm
Collins 3-0. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2022 and 2019 in 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Collins.
Garcia lost in the 2nd round last year. She came through the 2nd round this week when Tomova retired shortly before the end of set 2. She beat Osaka in 2 sets in a rain delayed match. 3 sets win over Gauff in the 4th round. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Guadalajara.
Collins reached the 3rd round last season. She started slowly against Pera in the 1st round but easily took sets 2 and 3. Easy wins over Potapova and Avanesyan. 2 sets win over Cirstea in the 4th round. Q finals in Austin. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal.
12, 3 and 1 month stats favour Garcia on serve and Collins on return. Stats for the tournament are close on serve but favour Collins. her return stats are much stronger. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Collins around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.
WTA Miami
Alexandrova v Pegula 1.65
Due to start at 11 pm
Pegula 1-0 (May 2021, clay, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are stronger for Pegula.
Alexandrova reached the q finals last season. Straight sets win over Vekic in the 2nd round. She beat Pavlyuchenkova in 3 sets as underdog in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Swiatek in the 4th round. 3rd round in Doha and semis in Adelaide. Q finals in Tokyo. 3rd round at the US Open.
Pegula reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 2nd round when Zhu retired in set 2. 2 sets win over Fernandez in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Navarro in the 4th round. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide. Title in Seoul. Final in Tokyo. 4th round at the US Open. Title in Montreal.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Pegula. 1 month stats are a little better for Alexandrova. 1 month return stats and predicted holds favour Pegula. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Pegula if she gets an early break of serve. Remove liability if Alexandrova then gets a bp. Back Pegula around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
26th March
WTA Miami
Azarenka 1.41 v Putintseva
Due to start at 6 pm
Azarenka 2-0. Most recent Feb 2022, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in Feb 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %'s in the last year are pretty even.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Stearns in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Zheng as underdog in the 3rd round. She beat in form Boulter in 2 sets in the 4th round. Poor loss to Dolehide in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha and 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
Putintseva lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Bucsa in 3 sets in the 1st round. Beat Samsonova in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Minnen in the 3rd round. Beat Kalinina in 2 close sets in the 4th round. 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Hua Hin. Q finals in Hobart as qualifier. Semis in Guangzhou and Q finals in Osaka.
12 month and 3 month stats are a little better for Azarenka. 1 month stats favour Putintseva overall.
Lay Azarenka around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Azarenka around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
WTA Miami
Sakkari v Rybakina 1.40
Due to start at 11 pm
Rybakina 2-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Rybakina in a 3rd set tie break. Sakkari won on hard in Mar 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Sakkari lost in the 2nd round last year. Easy win over Yuan in the 2nd round. She beat Yastremska in 2 sets in the 3rd round. Walkover in the 4th round when Kalinskaya pulled out. She reached the final in Indian Wells. Q final in Beijing. Title in Guadalajara. Final in Washington.
Rybakina reached the final last season. She has not played for a month after withdrawing from the Dubai q finals. She needed 3 sets against Tauson which was a surprise. She also needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Keys in the 4th round. She didn't serve well. Final in Doha and title in Abu Dhabi. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing and 3rd round at the US Open.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Rybakina. 1 month stats are more even.
Lay Rybakina around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.65. Back Rybakina around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
25th March
WTA Miami
Azarenka 1.79 v Boulter
Due to start at 6 pm
1sqt meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Boulter.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Stearns in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Zheng as underdog in the 3rd round. Poor loss to Dolehide in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha and 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
Boulter Came through the 2nd round when her opponent retired in set 2. Straight sets win over Haddad Maia in the 3rd round as slight underdog. She won the title in San Diego this month. 2nd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month stats are very even on serve. return stats favour Boulter. 3 month stats favour Boulter. 1 month stats favour her on serve.
Lay Azarenka around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10. Strong chance of 3 sets.
Update: In her second service game, Boulter went 0-40 behind. I laid Azarenka. Boulter recovered to hold. She was broken in her next service game and Azarenka led 4-2. I added to my lay of Azarenka.
Azarenka came under pressure in her next service game but held. In the next game, Boulter again faced 3 bp but recovered to hold. She broke Azarenka in the next game and I hedged. I left the match alone after that. I was favouring Boulter pre match but her serve is a huge weapon when playing well and she was facing bp's in every service game other than her first service game of the match.
Boulter did have a bp for a 6-5 lead but didn't take it and was broken in the next game which gave the set to Azarenka.
Boulter's issues on serve continued into set 2 and Azarenka took a 5-0 lead and took the set 6-1.
Azarenka won 7-5, 6-1.
WTA Miami
Navarro v Pegula 1.66
Due to start at 11 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Navarro lost in the qual rounds last season. Easy win over Hunter in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Paolini in the 3rd round. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in San Diego and 3rd rounds in Doha and the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
Pegula reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 2nd round when Zhu retired in set 2. 2 sets win over Fernandez in the 3rd round. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide. Title in Seoul. Final in Tokyo. 4th round at the US Open. Title in Montreal.
12 month stats favour Pegula. 3 month stats are better for Pegula on serve and favour Navarro on return. 1 month stats favour Pegula on serve and Navarro on return. Predicted holds are better for Navarro. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Pegula around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.65.
Update: Navarro broke to lead 3-1. I backed Pegula. In the next game, Pegula had a bp but I did not remove any liability. She did not take the break chance and Navarro led 4-1.
Pegula held easily and then broke Navarro in the next game. I removed the liability to leave all my profit on Pegula. She broke again to lead 6-5 but was broken when serving for the set. She easily won the tie break.
I left my free bet on Pegula to run. There was only 1 break in the second set, although Pegula faced 5 bp's in her first 2 service games.
Pegula won 7-6, 6-3.
24th March
WTA Miami
Paolini v Navarro 1.64
Due to start at 3 pm
Navarro 2-0. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in Sep 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s favour Navarro.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Volynets in 2 tight sets in the 2nd round. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title in Dubai. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir, semis in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing. Q finals in Cinci.
Navarro lost in the qual rounds last season. Easy win over Hunter in the 2nd round. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in San Diego and 3rd rounds in Doha and the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
12 month hard stats are better for Navarro. 3 month and 1 month stats are better for Paolini on serve. Predicted holds also favour Paolini.
Recent performances are better for Paolini. Lay Navarro around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.95. Lay set 1 winner.
Update: Navarro broke to lead 2-1. I had laid when Paolini was 15-40 down. She saved one of the bp's but Navarro took the second one.
Navarro broke again and took the set. As I already had a lay on Navarro and Paolini had not had a good opening set, I did not add to the position at the start of set 2.
In set 2, Paolini served first and faced 2 bp but recovered to hold. She was broken in her next service game and I added to my lay of Navarro who was now a set and a break ahead. Paolini immediately broke back. I did not remove any liability and wanted to give her a chance to hold serve. She again faced bp's but held. In the next game she broke Navarro to lead 4-2 and I hedged.
the rest of the set was a mess with 2 more breaks. Paolini held serve after facing a bp and took the set.
I stayed away from the 3rd set which Navarro won 6-0.
Navarro won 6-2, 3-6, 6-0.
WTA Miami
Garcia v Osaka 1.46
Due to start at 7 pm
Osaka 2-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Osaka in 2. Garcia won on hard in Jan 2024, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Osaka.
Garcia lost in the 2nd round last year. She came through the 2nd round this week when Tomova retired shortly before the end of set 2. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Guadalajara.
Osaka had an easy win over Cocciaretto in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Svitolina in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha. She reached the final in Miami in 2022.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Osaka. Their 2 matches in 2024 were really tight. Osaka's level since those matches has improved.
Lay Osaka if she gets an early break of serve. Remove liability if Garcia then gets a bp. Back Osaka round 2.10 to 2.20.
Update: I started to trade this match but when it was delayed by rain in the 1st set, I left it.
There were a few bp's but no breaks in the first set. Garcia took the set in a tie break. If I was trading it, I would have laid Garcia after the set. She was broken in the 6th game of the set and I would either have hedged or left a free bet on Osaka to give her chance to take the set. The second option would not have been good as Osaka was broken back straight away and would be broken again to lose the set and the match.
Garcia won 7-6, 7-5.
23rd March
WTA Miami
Zheng 1.69 v Azarenka
Due to start at 6 pm
Azarenka 1-0 (Jan 2023, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s favour Zheng in the last 12 months. They are even in 2024.
Zheng reached the 4th round last year. She came through the 2nd round when Siniakova retired in set 3. Q finals in Dubai. Final at the Aus Open. Title in Zhengzhou and q finals at the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Stearns in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Poor loss to Dolehide in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha and 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month and 3 month stats favour Zheng on serve. return stats and predicted holds favour Azarenka. Same pattern in the last month. Recent performances are better for Azarenka. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Zheng around 1.40 and remove liability around 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
Update: Azarenka got the first break of serve to lead 4-2. As I expected 3 sets, I laid Azarenka. There were no breaks until Azarenka served for the set at 5-3. She was broken after wasting 3 set points and saving 4 break points. I hedged.
Azarenka broke again in the next game to take the set.
Azarenka served first in set 2 so I laid her using the profit to keep the liability low. Azarenka was broken in the first game. I removed liability and shifted most of the profit to Azarenka as I favoured her to win. She broke back in the next game. A late break gave the set to Azarenka.
She won 6-4, 7-5.
WTA Miami
Putintseva 1.77 v Minnen
Due to start at 9 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are quite even.
Putintseva lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Bucsa in 3 sets in the 1st round. Beat Samsonova in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Hua Hin. Q finals in Hobart as qualifier. Semis in Guangzhou and Q finals in Osaka.
Minnen lost in the qual rounds. I expected her to beat Liu but perhaps she knew she had a lucky loser place. She beat Tsurenko in 2 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. CH semi in March. Semis in Guangzhou and 3rd round at the US Open. CH final in Aug.
12 and 3 month stats favour Putintseva overall but Minnen leads in service games won % and 1st serve points won %.
Back Putintseva around 2.30 and remove liability around 1.70. Sets should be close.
Update: Putintseva took a 4-0 lead in set 1. She did not face a bp in the set. I was expecting 3 sets so I let Minnen have her serve at the start of set 2. She held to 15 and I laid Putintseva. Minnen broke to lead 3-1. I removed some of the liability. She held for a 4-1 lead and I hedged.
I did not get involved in the 3rd set. A late break gave Putintseva the chance to serve for the match and she did so successfully.
Putintseva won 6-2, 2-6, 6-4.
22nd March
WTA Miami
Paolini 1.57 v Volynets
Due to start at 3 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title in Dubai. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir, semis in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing. Q finals in Cinci.
Volynets lost in the qual rounds last year. She made it through the qual rounds this week. 3 sets win over Kenin in the 1st round. 3rd round in Indian Wells. CH semis in Feb. Q finals in Hua Hin. CH semi in Jan.
12 month serve stats are pretty even. Slight edge to Volynets on return. 3 month stats are better for Paolini on serve. 1 min the stats are much stronger for Paolini. recent performances are better for her. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Paolini around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
Update: Paolini broke first to lead 2-0. I expected a close match so I laid her. Volynets immediately broke back and I removed most of the liability. The score reached 4-4 which is often an exit point for me. As my green was not on the player that I favoured to win, I hedged. The set went to a tie break which Paolini won 10-8. Volynets had 2 sets points in the tie break.
Volynets was serving first in set 2 and i let her have her service game before laying. She was broken so I was laying Paolini with a set and a break lead.
Paolini was broken in the very next game and I removed the liability. The green was on Volynets. Unfortunately she was broken again in the next game. I held my position hoping for another "set and a break" recovery. Paolini held her next 2 service games without facing a bp so I hedged.
Volynets broke 2 games later to get back to 4-4! She would be broken again and Paolini served for the match at 6-5 and held to 15.
Paolini won 7-6, 7-5.
WTA Miami
Potapova v Collins 1.60
Due to start at 6 pm
1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Collins.
Potapova reached the q finals last year. Q finals in Indian Wells. 3rd round in Dubai. Q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego.
Collins reached the 3rd round last season. She started slowly against Pera in the 1st round but easily took sets 2 and 3. Q finals in Austin. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Collins. 1 month stats favour her on serve.
Back Collins around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
Update: Collins was broken in the first game. I backed her. The next 2 games were easy holds but Collins broke back to get to 2-2. I removed some of the liability. Potapova did not win another game in the set. As she had been broken in her last 3 service games, I did not back Potapova in set 2.
Collins took a 3-0 lead in the 2nd set and I hedged. Collins won 6-2, 6-2.
21st March
WTA Miami
Parry v Haddad Maia 1.63
Due to start at 3 pm
Parry 2-1. Most recent Nov 2021, clay, Parry in 2. All their matches were on clay. Maia's win was by walkover. Hard win %'s are quite even. Parry has the better ROI in the last year and also in 2024.
Parry beat Cristian in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Austin. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
Maia reached the 3rd round last season. Semis in Abu Dhabi. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in San Diego and 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month stats favour Parry on serve. 3 month and 1 month stats favour Parry overall. Recent performances are better for Parry.
Lay Maia around 1.40 and remove liability at 2.00. Good chance of 3 sets.
Update: Parry took a 2-0 lead in set 1. I backed Maia. Maia broke in the very next game and I hedged. As I now had some profit, I could lay Maia and my break even price was around 1.45.
Parry broke again to lead 4-2 and I removed some of my liability. This time she kept the lead and took the set.
Maia's stats in the first set weren't great so I let her have her service game before laying. She faced 2 bp's during that game but held. I laid Parry.
Maia broke to lead 3-1 and I removed almost all liability. Maia would break again to take a 5-1 lead and I hedged.
I did not trade the 3rd set. There was only 1 break in it and went to Maia.
Haddad Maia won 3-6, 6-1, 6-4.
WTA Miami
Zheng 1.54 v Siniakova
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Siniakova 1-0 (July 2023, grass, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Zheng.
Zheng reached the 4th round last year. Q finals in Dubai. Final at the Aus Open. Title in Zhengzhou and q finals at the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci.
Siniakova retired from the 1st round last season. She beat Bogdan in 2 sets in the 1st round. She took Svitolina to 3 sets in Indian Wells. Took Navarro to 3 sets in San Diego. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Title in Nanchang. Final in Hong Kong. Q finals in Ningbo.
12, 3 and 1 month stats are better for Zheng on serve.
Back Zheng around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.
Update: Siniakova got the first break of serve to lead 3-2. I backed Zheng. Zheng broke back straight asway and removed most of my liability.
Siniakova broke again in the next game. I backed Zheng again. In Siniakova's next service game, she faced a bp and I hedged. I favoured Zheng to win comfortably but she was struggling. Siniakova held on to take the set.
I laid Siniakova. The existing profit kept the liability lower. Zheng made a much better start and took a 2-0 lead. I removed the liability to leave a free bet on Zheng. She broke again for a 4-0 lead and I hedged evenly.
Siniakova got one of the breaks back but Zheng took the set.
In set 3, Siniakova was broken in the first game and she retired.
Zheng won 4-6, 6-3, 1-0(ret)
20th March
WTA Miami
Liu v Martic 1.61
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Martic 1-0 (July 2018, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Liu.
Liu reached the 3rd round last year. She has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Seoul. Most of her WTA hard wins were in qual rounds in the last year.
Martic reached the 3rd round last season. Q finals in Auckland. 2nd round of the US Open. S