2024 Trade Archive


26th April



WTA Madrid

Alexandrova 1.50 v Krueger

Due to start at 11:30 am


1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Krueger.
Alexandrova reached the 4th round last year. 3rd round at the French Open.
Krueger beat Hibino in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 2nd round in Charleston. Most of her clay matches have been in ITF's.
12 month stats are better for Alexandrova on serve. Recent performances are better for Alexandrova.
Back Alexandrova around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability 1.50.


Update: Alexandrova was broken in the first game. I backed her. There were no bp's in the next 3 games. Alexandrova served at 1-3 and faced 2 bp's but held. Had she been broken, I would have added a little to my back of her. In the next game, Kruger faced a bp and I remove some of the liability. Krueger held. 

In Alexandrova's next service game, she again faced a bp and I hedged for a small red.  

Alexandrova was broken again to lose the set. 

My reason for favouring Alexandrova was her serving ability but she was not serving well. She had only managed to earn 1 bp on the Krueger serve. I stayed away from set 2. 

In set 2, Alexandrova did not have a single bp and was broken once.


Krueger won 6-3, 6-3. 



WTA Madrid

Kostyuk 1.22 v Sherif

Due to start at 1 pm


Kostyuk 2-1. Most recent Jan 2023, hard, Kostyuk in 2. She won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Sherif won on clay in 2022, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Sherif.
Kostyuk lost in the 2nd round last year. She reached the final in Stuttgart last week. 3rd round in Rome.
Sherif reached the q finals last season. She beat Davis in 3 sets in the 1st round. Semis in Palermo. 2 CH titles in June. 2nd round at the French Open.
12 months stats are better for Sherif overall. Recent performances are better for Kostyuk.
Lay Kostyuk around 1.15 and remove liability at 1.40. Back Kostyuk around 1.85 to 2.00. Chance of 3 sets.


Update: Even though I was wanting 1.15 before laying Kostyuk, I place a small lay at the start as she was serving first. She saved 3 bp's in that first game but was broken. I removed a little of the liability. Sherif faced a bp in the next game but held. Kostyuk was broken in the next game and Sherif led 3-0. I hedged. 

I laid Sherif. 2 games later, Sherif was broken. I hedged. Kostyuk was then broken for a third time and Sherif easily served for the set, holding to 15. 

So, Kostyuk was broken 3 times in the set. She won less than half her service points. 

At the start of set 2, Kostyuk served first and was broken to 30. She was clearly not performing as I had expected and I stayed out. Sherif held serve and then broke Kostyuk again. As Kostyuk had her only break of the 1st set when Sherif was a double break ahead (and because the price was low), I laid Sherif. 

Sherif was broken in the next game! I hedged as I was not confident that Kostyuk would be able to hold. She faced a bp but did hold and actually broke Sherif again to get to 4-4. 

Kostyuk was broken when serving at 5-5 and Sherif successfully served for the match. 


Sherif won 6-2, 7-5.



25th April


WTA Madrid

Podoroska v Navarro 1.41

Due to start at 11:30 am


Navarro 1-0 (June 2023, grass, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Navarro.
Podoroska lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Siniakova in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH title in March. 2 CH semis in Nov. Semis in Budapest. CH semi in June. 2nd round of the French Open.
Navarro won an ITF title in Nov. Q finals in Palermo. CH final in July. 2nd round of the French Open. Q finals in Strasbourg in May.
12 month WTA stats are better for Navarro. Podoroska will be competitive. Navarro may start slowly as hasn't played on red clay for a while.
Lay Navarro around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Navarro around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.



WTA Madrid

Mertens v Stephens 1.70

Due to start at 2:30 pm


H2H 2-2. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Mertens in 3. Stephens won on hard in Sep 2023, 2 sets. All their matches were on hard. Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Mertens reached the 4th round last year. Q finals in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open.
Stephens lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Trevisan in 3 sets in the 1st round. She won the title last week in Rouen. 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat.
12 month WTA stats are better for Stephens overall. 3 month stats also favour her. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Stephens around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

24th April


WTA Madrid

Linette v Cocciaretto 1.57

Due to start at 1:30 pm


Cocciaretto 1-0 (Oct 2022, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are a little better for Cocciaretto in the last year.
Linette reached the 3rd round last year. Reached the final in Rouen last week. 3rd round in Charleston. 3rd round in Rome.
Cocciaretto reached the 2nd round last season. CH semi in March. Title in Lausanne in July. 3rd round at the French Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Linette on serve. 3 month stats favour her. She could be tired after last week.
Lay Cocciaretto around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.

There's a chance Linette tired if it's a long match. Slight edge to Cocciaretto.



WTA Madrid

Frech v Cristian 1.66

Due to start at 3:30 pm


Frech 1-0 (Aug 2017, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s favour Cristian.
Frech reached the 2nd round as qualifier last year. 2nd round at the French Open. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier.
Cristian reached the 2nd round last season. She has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Charleston. CH semi and 2 q finals in Sep.
12 month clay stats on all tours are fairly even on serve and favour Cristian on return. 3 month stats are better for Cristian. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Cristian.
Back Cristian around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.

23rd April


WTA Madrid

Begu 1.45 v L. Fruhvirtova

Due to start at 1 pm


Begu 1-0 (Feb 2020, hard, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are much better for Begu.
Begu reached the q finals last season. CH final in March. CH final in July. 3rd round at the French Open.
Fruhvirtova reached the 2nd round last year. CH 2nd round in March.
Back Begu around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.



WTA Madrid

Kenin 1.84 v Schmiedlova

Due to start at 2:30 pm


Kenin 2-0. Most recent Jan 2019, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in Aug 2018, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Schmiedlova.
Kenin lost in the 1st round last season. 3rd round in Rome.
Schmiedlova lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. Final in Parma in Sep. Q finals in Budapest in July. 4th round at the French Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Schmiedlova.
Lay Kenin around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10. I favour Schmiedlova to win.



22nd April


WTA Madrid

Osorio 1.43 v Danilovic

Due to start at 10:30 am


Osorio 1-0 (May 2021, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %'s favour Osorio.
Osorio reached the 3rd round last year. She won the title in Bogota this month. Q finals in Palermo. 2nd round of the French Open as lucky loser. 4th round in Rome.
Danilovic lost in the qual rounds last season. CH semi this month. CH q final in March. CH title in July. 3rd round of the French Open as qualifier.
12 month WTA stats are better for Danilovic on serve. Return stats favour Osorio. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Osorio around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Madrid

Cristian 1.32 v Kessler

Due to start at 12:00


1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Cristian.
Cristian reached the 2nd round last year. Q finals in Charleston. Q finals in Parma in Sep. CH semi and q final in Sep.
Kessler reached an ITF q final in May. Most of her clay matches were in ITF or below.
12 month clay stats are stronger for Cristian.
Back Cristian around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.




21st April


Predictions:


WTA Stuttgart

Rybakina in 2


WTA Rouen

Stephens in 3 sets


ATP Barcelona

Ruud in 3 sets


ATP Munich

Struff in 3 sets


ATP Bucharest

Fucsovics in 3 sets



WTA Stuttgart

Rybakina 1.41 v Kostyuk

Due to start at 12:00


Kostyuk 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Rybakina in 2. Kostyuk won on hard in 2023 (3 sets) and in 2017 (2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the 2nd round last season. She had a very tight 3 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. Another tight 3 setter with Paolini in the q final. Yet another 3 setter against Swiatek. 3rd round at the French Open. Title in Rome.
Kostyuk beat Siegemund in 3 sets. She faced 20 bp's and was broken 7 times. She hit FIFTEEN d faults. She played better in the 2nd round against Zheng, who was terrible. Kostyuk still hit 8 d faults. Another poor match on serve in the q final with Gauff. Both players struggled and Kostyuk hit another 10 d faults. She won in a 3rd set tie break. She actually served pretty well in the semi final and beat Vondrousova in 2 sets. She reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2021 but has played very few clay matches since and had little success.
12 month stats are better for Rybakina on serve and favour Kostyuk on return. predicted holds favour Rybakina. Stats for the tournament are better for Rybakina on serve but Kostyuk has been much better on return.
Most players have struggled with serve this week (more than usual).
Back Rybakina around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.



ATP Barcelona

Tsitsipas v Ruud 1.97

Due to start at 3 pm


Tsitsipas 4-2. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Tsitsipas in 2. Ruud won on hard in Feb 2024, 2 sets. He won on clay in May 2021, 2 sets. Only their first meeting which was in 2016 went to 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Tsitsipas.
Tsitsipas reached the final last season. He beat Ofner in 2 sets in the 2nd round. He beat Baena in 2 close sets in the 3rd round. He needed a 3rd set tie break against Acosta in the q final. Also needed 3 sets against Lajovic in the semi final. He won the title in Monte Carlo last week. Q finals at the French Open. Semis in Rome and q finals in Madrid.
Ruud reached the 3rd round last season. He beat Muller in 2 sets in the 2nd round. Easy win over Thompson in the 3rd round. He beat Arnaldi in 2 sets in the q final. He beat Etcheverry in 2 close sets in the semis. He reached the final in Monte Carlo. Semis in Estoril. Final in Bastad and final of the French Open. Semis in Rome.
12 month stats favour Tsitsipas on serve and return stats favour Ruud. Predicted holds are close but favour Tsitsipas. Stats for the tournament are close on serve but strongly favour Ruud on return. In their final last week, Ruud made an awful start but was more competitive in the 2nd set. Ruud has not lost a set this week. Tsitsipas needed 3 sets in the last 2 rounds. He has been on court 73 minutes more this week. This final will be more competitive.
Lay Tsitsipas around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.




20th April


Predictions:


WTA Stuttgart

Swiatek in 3 sets

Vondrousova in 2 sets


WTA Rouen

Garcia in 3 sets

Kalinina in 3 sets


ATP Barcelona

Ruud in 2 sets

Tsitsipas in 3 sets


ATP Munich

Fritz in 3 sets


ATP Bucharest 

Fucsovics in 3



WTA Stuttgart

Swiatek 1.24 v Rybakina

Due to start at 1 pm


Rybakina 3-2. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Swiatek in 2. Rybakina won on clay in 2023, Swiatek retired. She won on hard twice in 2023, 2 sets each time. Clay win %'s are a little better for Swiatek.
Swiatek won the title last year. Fairly comfortable win over Mertens in the 2nd round. She was broken twice. Close opening set with Raducanu in the q final. She won in 2 sets. Title at the French Open. Q finals in Rome and final in Madrid.
Rybakina reached the 2nd round last season. She had a very tight 3 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. Another tight 3 setter with Paolini in the q final. She was a break behind in set 3. 3rd round at the French Open. Title in Rome.
Rybakina is not at her best but is fighting hard. Swiatek should have too much variety and consistency for her. If Rybakina can make a decent start, she can keep it close.
Lay Swiatek around 1.15 and remove liability around 1.30. Back Swiatek above 1.85.



WTA Stuttgart

Kostyuk v Vondrousova 1.48

Due to start at 2:30 pm


H2H 1-1. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Kostyuk by walkover. Vondrousova won on clay in April 2023, 2 sets. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Vondrousova.
Kostyuk beat Siegemund in 3 sets. She faced 20 bp's and was broken 7 times. She hit FIFTEEN d faults. She played better in the 2nd round against Zheng, who was terrible. Kostyuk still hit 8 d faults. Another poor match on serve in the q final with Gauff. Both players struggled and Kostyuk hit another 10 d faults. She won in a 3rd set tie break. She reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2021 but has played very few clay matches since and had little success.
Vondrousova beat Vekic in 2 sets in the 1st round. IN the 2nd round she started poorly on serve but improved after being broken back in set 1. Easily took the 2nd set from Potapova. She beat Sabalenka in 3 close sets in the q final. Both struggled on serve but at the end it was Vondrousova who served better. She reached the 2nd round of the French Open. 4th round in Rome.
12 month and tournament stats favour Vondrousova.
Back Vondrousova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.



19th April


WTA Stuttgart

Rybakina 1.55 v Paolini

Due to start at 11:30 am


Paolini 2-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Paolini by walkover. She won on hard in Aug 2023 when Rybakina retired! Rybakina won on clay in Rome 2023, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the 2nd round last season. She had a very tight 3 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. 3rd round at the French Open. Title in Rome.
Paolini lost just 1 game to Errani in the 1st round. She beat Jabeur in 2 sets. She reached the final in Palermo in July. CH final in June. 2nd round of the French Open. CH title in May.
12 month stats favour Rybakina on serve. return stats favour Paolini and predicted holds favour Rybakina.
Back Rybakina above 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.




WTA Stuttgart

Kostyuk v Gauff 1.51

Due to start at 5:30 pm


Gauff 2-0. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in Jan 2022, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Gauff.
Kostyuk beat Siegemund in 3 sets. She faced 20 bp's and was broken 7 times. She hit FIFTEEN d faults. She played better in the 2nd round against Zheng, who was terrible. Kostyuk still hit 8 d faults. She reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2021 but has played very few clay matches since and had little success.
Gauff lost in the 2nd round last season. She hit FIFTEEN d faults in her 2=3 sets win over Vickery in the 2nd round. Q finals of the French Open.
12 month clay stats are better for Gauff on serve. She hadn't played on clay for a while so that could explain the poor performance in the last round. Back Gauff around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.



18th April


WTA Rouen

Burel 1.72 v Ruse

Due to start at 1:30 pm


1st meeting. Clay win %'s are even.
Burel needed 3 sets in the 1st round as 1.30 favourite. reached the final in Lausanne in July. Q finals in Palermo in July. Semis in Strasbourg.
Ruse has come through the qual rounds. Easy win over Hibino in the 1st round. 2nd round in Rome as qualifier.
12 month stats are better for Ruse. Stats in 2024 on all tours are better for Ruse. 1 month stats on all surfaces are stronger for Ruse. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Burel around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Stuttgart

Zheng 1.42 v Kostyuk

Due to start at 7pm


Zheng 1-0 (Aug 2023, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Zheng.
Zheng lost to Swiatek in the 2nd round last year. She beat Cirstea in 2 sets in the 1st round. Title in Palermo in July. 2nd round of the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Kostyuk beat Siegemund in 3 sets. She faced 20 bp's and was broken 7 times. She hit FIFTEEN d faults. She reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2021 but has played very few clay matches since and had little success.
12 month WTA stats are better for Zheng.
Back Zheng around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.



17th April


WTA Rouen

Schmiedlova v Parry 1.36

Due to start at 1:30 pm


1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Parry.
Schmiedlova reached a CH final in Sep. Q finals in Budapest. 4th round at the French Open.
Parry reached a CH final in Dec. CH q final in Dec. CH final in Nov. Semis in Lausanne in July. CH title in May and CH semi in June.
12 month stats on all tours favour Parry overall. Recent performances on all surfaces favour Parry.
Back Parry around 1.85 to 2.00. Remove liability at 1.45.



WTA Rouen

Stephens 1.50 v Pliskova 

Due to start at 6:30 pm


Stephens 6-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Stephens in 2. She won on clay in June 2021, 2 sets. Pliskova won on clay in 2018, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Stephens made a slow start in the 1st round against Stearns but won in 3. She reached the 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open and semis in Rabat.
Pliskova needed 3 sets against Polona Kudermetova in the 1st round. She reached the q finals in Stuttgart.
12 month clay stats are better for Pliskova on serve but favour Stephens overall. Stephens has the better ROI in the last year.
Back Stephens around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

16th April


WTA Rouen

Montgomery v Rus 1.55

Due to start at 12:00


1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Rus.
Montgomery has come through the qual rounds. CH q final in March. CH semi in Dec.
Rus won the title in Hamburg in July. CH title in July. CH title in June. 2nd round in Madrid.
12 month WTA stats are a little better for Rus overall. Stats in Challengers/ITF's also favour Rus overall.
Back Rus around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.



WTA Rouen

Cocciaretto v Garcia 1.94

Due to start at 4:30 pm


Garcia 3-0. Most recent July 2022, clay, 2 sets. All their matches were on clay. Cocciaretto took one of them to 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Cocciaretto.
Cocciaretto reached a CH semi in March. CH title in July. 3rd round of the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid.
Garcia reached the 2nd round of the French Open. 3rd rounds in Rome and Madrid.
12 month WTA stats are better for Garcia on serve. I don't expect Garcia to have an easy match. Cocciaretto has been winning matches as strong favourite but has not done so well against stronger opponents.
Lay Cocciaretto around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20.



15th April


WTA Stuttgart

Vickery v Sasnovich 1.91

Due to start at 2 :30 pm


Vickery 1-0 (Jan 2017, hard, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are better for Vickery.
Vickery has come through the qual rounds. Most of her clay matches were in ITF's.
Sasnovich has come through the qual rounds. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid.
12 month WTA stats are better for Vickery. recent performances also favour her.
Lay Sasnovich around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets but I favour Vickery to win.



WTA Rouen

Stephens 1.50 v Stearns

Due to start at 4:30 pm


Stephens 1-0 (May 2023, clay, 3rd set tie break). Clay win %'s are better for Stephens in the last year.
Stephens reached the 3rd round in Charleston. 4th round at the French Open and semis in Rabat.
Stearns reached the 3rd round of the French Open. Q finals in Rabat. Final in Bogota in April 2023.
12 month WTA stats are better for Stephens on serve. Return stats are a little better for Stearns.
Back Stephens around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.



14th April


Prediction:


ATP Monte Carlo

Tsitsipas in 3 sets



ATP Challenger, Madrid

Riedi 1.69 v Napolitano

Due to start at 10 am


Riedi 1-0 (June 2021, clay, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Napolitano.
Riedi did not lose a set in the first 3 rounds. Good win over Fonseca in the q final. He beat Rodionov in a 3rd set tie break in the semi final. CH q final in July.
Stats for the tournament favour Riedi on serve and favour Rodionov on return.
Napolitano has not lost a set. 2 tight sets win over Kopriva in the 2nd round. Beat Huesler in the q final as slight underdog. Kukushkin retired in the 2nd set in the semis. CH semi and q final in Sep. 2 CH q finals in July.
12 month CH stats are better for Napolitano overall. Stats for the tournament favour Riedi on serve. Return stats are much better for Napolitano. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Riedi around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00.



ATP Monte Carlo

Ruud v Tsitsipas 1.72

Due to start at 2 pm


Tsitsipas 3-2. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Ruud in 2. Tsitsipas won on hard in Dec 2022, 2 sets (exhibition). Ruud won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Tsitsipas won on clay in 2016. Clay win %'s are a little better for Tsitsipas.
Ruud reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He did not face a bp against Hurkacz in the 3rd round. He needed 3 sets against Humbert but easily won set 3. He had never taken a set from Djokovic in previous matches but beat him in 3 sets in the semis. He reached the semis in Estoril. Q final in Hamburg. Final in Bastad. Final of the French Open. Semis in Rome.
Tsitsipas reached the q finals last season. He beat Djere who retired in the 1st round. He lost just 1 game to Etcheverry in the 2nd round. He took a tight first set against Zverev and was 5-0 up in the 2nd set. He had 2 match points in the next game but ended up needing a tie break to take the set. Straight sets win over Khachanov in the q final. He beat Sinner in 3 sets. Sinner suffered from cramp (and a bad line call ) towards the end. He reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Rome. Q finals in Madrid and final in Barcelona.
12 month clay stats are pretty even. Slight edge to Tsitsipas. Stats for the tournament are also very even. Both players raised their levels yesterday. Players often suffer a "let down" after beating Djokovic. I think the fact that Ruud had never even taken a set from him before will make Ruud's win even more significant to Ruud.
Back Tsitsipas around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.




13th April


Predictions:


ATP Monte Carlo

Sinner in 3 sets

Djokovic in 2 sets



ATP Monte Carlo

Tsitsipas v Sinner 1.33

Due to start at 12:30


Tsitsipas 5-3. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Sinner in 2. He won indoors in Feb 2023, 2 sets. Tsitsipas won on hard in Jan 2023, 5 sets. Tsitsipas won on clay in May 2022, 5 sets. Clay win %'s are fairly even.
Tsitsipas reached the q finals last season. He beat Djere who retired in the 1st round. He lost just 1 game to Etcheverry in the 2nd round. He took a tight first set against Zverev and was 5-0 up in the 2nd set. He had 2 match points in the next game but ended up needing a tie break to take the set. Straight sets win over Khachanov in the q final. He reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Rome. Q finals in Madrid and final in Barcelona.
Sinner reached the semis last season. He lost 3 games to Korda in the 2nd round. Beat Struff in 2 sets in the 3rd round. In the q final, I expected Rune to be tired after playing 2 matches the previous day. Sinner seemed to be the stronger player but Rune was keeping the sets close. After some drama involving the crowd and a couple of violations for Rune, supervisor called ETC , Sinner seemed distracted and Rune played well to take the 2nd set. 4th round in Rome. Q finals in Barcelona.
12 month clay stats are better for Sinner. Stats for the tournament favour Sinner on serve and Tsitsipas on return. Sinner has been broken just once this week. Tsitsipas won 3 of their 4 clay matches but they have not met on this surface since Sinner's improvement in the last year.
Lay Sinner around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Sinner around 1.90 to 2.00.



Update: Tsitsipas broke first to lead 2-1. I laid him. There were no bp's in the next 4 games and I reduce my position. If Tsitsipas held on for the set, I would be laying him again. There were no more bp's in the set which Tsitsipas won 6-4. I laid Tsitsipas.

In set 2, Sinner held easily and then broke Tsitsipas to 15. I took some of my liability out. When Tsitsipas served at 1-4, Sinner had a bp and I hedged evenly. 

Sinner served for the set at 5-3 and saved 5 bp's before holding. 

In set 3, Sinner broke in the first game. He had 2 bp's for a double break lead but he couldn't take them. Strictly speaking he DID take one of them but a bad call from the umpire gave the point to Tsitsipas. Sinner was cramping towards the end of the match. 

Tsitsipas did break back to 4-4 and then broke again to take the match. 



ATP Monte Carlo

Djokovic 1.44 v Ruud

Due to start at 2:30 pm


Djokovic 5-0. Most recent June 2023, clay, straight sets. Ruud has not taken a set from Djokovic. They met 3 times on clay. Clay win %'s are better for Djokovic.
Djokovic reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Safiullin in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round, he was behind for most of the 1st set against Musetti. He won in 2 sets. Straight sets win over De Minaur. Title at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
Ruud reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He did not face a bp against Hurkacz in the 3rd round. He needed 3 sets against Humbert but easily won set 3. He reached the semis in Estoril. Q final in Hamburg. Final in Bastad. Final of the French Open. Semis in Rome.
Stats for the tournament are better for Ruud on serve. 12 month stats are pretty even on serve and favour Djokovic on return.
Back Djokovic around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.


Update: Djokovic was broken in the first game. He did not reach the target price but I placed a small back on him. 4 games later, he was broken again and I added to my position on him. he got one of the breaks back in the very next game and I remove some of my liability. There were no more bp's in the set which Ruud took 6-4. 

I added to be back of Djokovic at the start of set 2. He held, boke and held again for a 3-0 lead. I removed my liability. He would break again to easily take the set 6-1.

In set 3 it was Ruud's turn to hold, break and hold for a 3-0 lead. After his break, I added a little to my position on Djokovic. Djokovic broke serve and then held to get back to 4-4 and I hedged. Surprisingly, Ruud won the next 2 games to take the match. 


Ruud won 6-4, 1-6, 6-4.



12th April


ATP Monte Carlo

Djokovic 1.28 v De Minaur

Due to start at 1:30 pm


H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, De Minaur in 2. Djokovic won on hard in Jan 2023, straight sets. Clay win %'s are better for Djokovic.
Djokovic reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Safiullin in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round, he was behind for most of the 1st set against Musetti. He won in 2 sets. Title at the French Open. Q finals in Rome.
De Minaur reached the 2nd round last year. Surprisingly easy win over Wawrinka in the 1st round. He struggled against Griekspoor in the 2nd round and won in 3 sets. 2 sets win over Popyrin in the 3rd round. Q finals in Barcelona.
Djokovic has not won this tournament since 2015 and has not gone past the q finals since then. 12 month clay stats are better for Djokovic and stats for the tournament also favour him. De Minaur 1st round performance will have dragged his stats down.
Lay Djokovic around 1.15 to 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back Djokovic above 1.80.



ATP Monte Carlo

Humbert v Ruud 1.35

Due to start at 3 pm


Humbert 3-1. Most recent June 2022, grass, 4 sets. He won indoors in Nov 2020, 3rd set tie break. Ruud won on clay in Sep 2020, 3 sets. 12 month clay win %'s are a little better for Humbert.
Humbert lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. He beat Coria in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Zhang in the 2nd round. He beat Sonego in 3 sets in the 3rd round. 2nd round at the French Open. 2 CH titles in May.
Ruud reached the 3rd round last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He did not face a bp against Hurkacz in the 3rd round. He reached the semis in Estoril. Q final in Hamburg. Final in Bastad. Final of the French Open. Semis in Rome.
12 month clay stats are quite even on serve. Return stats favour Ruud. Tournament stats are better for Ruud.
Back Ruud around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.


11th April


ATP Monte Carlo

Zverev 1.86 v Tsitsipas

Due to start at 12:30 pm


Tsitsipas 9-5. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Zverev in 2. Tsitsipas won indoors in Nov 2023, 2 sets. He won on clay in May 2022, 3 sets. Zverev won on clay in May 2022, 3 sets. Tsitsipas leads 4-1 on clay. Clay win %'s are close but favour Tsitsipas.
Zverev reached the 3rd round last year. 2 sets win over Ofner in the 2nd round. Title in Hamburg. Q finals in Bastad in July. Semis of the French Open. Semis in Geneva. 4th rounds in Rome and Madrid.
Tsitsipas reached the q finals last season. He beat Djere who retired in the 1st round. He lost just 1 game to Etcheverry in the 2nd round. He reached the q finals at the French Open. Semis in Rome. Q finals in Madrid and final in Barcelona.
12 month stats are better for Tsitsipas. Return stats are very even. Results in the last month are better for Zverev. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Tsitsipas around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.



ATP Monte Carlo

Sonego v Humbert 1.53

Due to start at 3:30 pm


H2H 2-2. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Humbert in 3. Sonego won both their clay matches in 2023. Straight sets at the French Open and 3 sets in Monte Carlo. Clay win %'s are better for Humbert.
Sonego reached the 2nd round last season. He lost in the qual rounds this week. He beat Aliassime as underdog in the 2nd round. Semis in Umag in July. 4th round at the French Open. 3rd round in Rome.
Humbert lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. He beat Coria in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Zhang in the 2nd round. 2nd round at the French Open. 2 CH titles in May.
12 month stats are better for Humbert. Stats for the tournament are better for Humbert. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Humbert around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.



10th April


ATP Monte Carlo

Hurkacz 1.48 v Bautista Agut

Due to start at 12:00


Bautista Agut 3-2. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Hurkacz in 2. He won indoors in Feb 2023, 3 tight sets. Bautista Agut won on hard in Jan 2022, 3rd set tie break. Clay win %'s are better for Hurkacz.
Hurkacz reached the 3rd round last season. He beat Draper in a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round. Title in Estoril last week. 3rd round of the French Open.
Bautista Agut reached the 2nd round last season. He has come through the qual rounds. He beat Acosta in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH final in Nov. 2nd round of the French Open. 3rd rounds in Madrid and Barcelona.
12 month clay stats are better for Hurk on serve and strongly favour Agut on return. Recent performances on all surfaces favour Agut. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Hurkacz around 1.25 to 1.30 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner. Agut has been in poor form for a while but more recently has shown an improvement. This should be a very tight match.




ATP Monte Carlo

Monfils v Medvedev 1.43

Due to start at 1:30 pm


Monfils 2-1. Most recent Mar 2022, hard, Monfils in 3. He won indoors in 2019, 3 sets. Medvedev won indoors in Feb 2019, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Medvedev.
Monfils beat lucky loser Vukic in 3 sets in the 1st round. He hasn't had a massive amount of clay success. He reached the 4th round of the French Open in 2019!
Medvedev reached the q final last season. Title in Rome. 4th round in Madrid.
12 month clay stats are better for Medvedev. Monfils will cause him a few problems.
Lay Medvedev around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Medvedev around 1.90 to 2.10.



9th April


ATP Monte Carlo

Hurkacz 1.77 v Draper

Due to start at 12:00


Hurkacz 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Draper in straight sets. Hurkacz won on clay in Apr 2023(Monte Carlo), 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Hurkacz.
Hurkacz reached the 3rd round last season. Title in Estoril last week. 3rd round of the French Open.
Draper reached the 2nd round last season. Q finals in Lyon.
12 month stats are better for Hurkacz on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Draper. Recent performances are better for Hurkacz.
Back Hurkacz around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.




ATP Monte Carlo

Coric v Struff 1.93

Due to start at 3 pm


Struff 4-2. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Struff in 3rd set tie break. He won on clay in 2019, 5 sets. Clay win %'s are quite even.
Coric lost in the 1st round last year. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Rome. Semis in Madrid.
Struff reached the q finals as qualifier last season. He beat Baez in the 1st round as underdog. Final in Madrid as qualifier.
12 month clay stats are almost identical. Struff seems to like conditions inn MC. Slight edge to him.
Lay Coric around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.



8th April




ATP Monte Carlo

Cerundolo 1.65 v Altmaier

Due to start at 11:30 am


H2H 1-1. Most recent July 2022, clay, Cerundolo in 3. Altmaier won on clay in 2019, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are a little better for Altmaier.
Cerundolo reached the 2nd round last year, losing in 3 sets to Berrettini. Semis in Rio. Semis in Bastad. 4th round at the French Open. Final in Lyon. Q finals in Rome and Barcelona.
Altmaier lost in the qual rounds. Q finals in Hamburg. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid.
12 month ATP stats are fairly even. recent performances are better for Cerundolo.
Back Cerundolo around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.


Update: Cerundolo served first and went 15:40 behind. I was expecting him to win in 2 sets so I place a small back on him. he recovered to hold serve. There were no more break points until Altmaier served at 2-3. he was broken to 15. I removed the liability to leave a free bet on Cerundolo. Cerundolo faced a break point in the next game but held. He then broke serve to take the set.

I left the small free bet to run.

In the second set, Altmaier went a break ahead but Cerundolo broke back. Cerundolo took the set in a tie break. 


Cerundolo won 6-2, 7-6.



ATP Monte Carlo

Tabilo 1.63 v O'Connell

Due to start at 1 pm


Tabilo 1-0 (Mar 2023, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Tabilo.
Tabilo reached the final in Santiago last month. Most of his tennis is played in Challengers. CH title and semi final in Nov.
O'Connell has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Geneva. Semis in Munich in April. Q finals in Marrakech in 2023.
12 month ATP stats are quite even on serve. Return stats are stronger for Tabilo.
Back Tabilo around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.


Update: There was just 1 break in the first set and went to Tabilo. In set 2, he went a break ahead. O'Connell broke back to get to 4-4 but was immediately broken again. 

We never got near my target price. No trade.


Tabilo won 6-3, 6-4. 



7th April


Predictions:


WTA Charleston

Collins in 2 sets


WTA Bogota

Bouzkova in 3 sets


ATP Marrakech

Berrettini in 2 sets


ATP Estoril

Hurkacz in 3 sets


ATP Houston

Tiafoe in 3 sets




ATP Marrakech

Carballes Baena v Berrettini 1.44

Due to start at 3 pm


Berrettini 2-1. Most recent Oct 2022, hard, Berrettini in 2. Baena won indoors in 2022, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Berrettini.
Baena won the title last season. He had an easy win in the 1st round. He beat Evans in 2 close sets in the 2nd round. He beat De Alboran in 3 sets in the q final. 2 sets win over Kotov. 2nd round in Cordoba. CH title in Sep. 3rd round in Rome.
Berrettini lost just 3 games in the 1st round. He beat Munar in 3 sets in the 2nd round. He beat Sonego in 2 close sets in the q final. He needed 3 sets against in form Navone in the semis. He reached the 3rd round in Monte Carlo in April 2023. He has had injury issues for months. He reached a CH final on hard in March.
12 month clay state are better for Berrettini. Stats for the tournament favour him on serve.
Back Berrettini around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.


Update: Baena broke first to lead 3-1. We didn't quite get the target price but I backed Berrettini. I often back after a break of serve but if I don't get my target entry price, I reduce my stake a little. Berrettini broke back in the next game (this is why I back after the break!).

I removed some of the liability. Berrettini broke to lead 6-5 and I removed the remaining liability. He went 0-40 behind when serving for the set but recovered to hold. 

I left the free bet to run. In set 2, Berrettini faced 3 break points in his 1st service game but recovered to hold. He won the next 4 games to lead 5-1 and held the lead to the end.


Berrettini won 7-5, 6-2.



WTA Charleston

Kasatkina v Collins 1.40

Due to start at 6 pm


Kasatkina 2-1. Most recent Aug 2021, hard, Collins in 3. Kasatkina won on hard in Feb 2021, 3 sets. She won on clay in May 2018, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Collins.
Kasatkina reached the semis last season. 3 sets win over Kessler in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kalinina in the 2nd round but she did not serve well, winning less than half her serve points. She beat Cristian in 3 sets in the q final. 3rd set tie break win over Pegula in the semis. Q finals in Palermo. 4th round at the French Open. 4th rounds in Rome and Madrid.
Collins lost in the 1st round last year. She had some strong results on clay in 2021 but has had little clay success since. She won the title in Miami last week and I thought she might not care about this week but she proved me wrong. Perhaps as this is her last season before she retires, she is trying to get the most from it. Easy win over Badosa in the 1st round. She beat Jabeur in 3 sets and Stephens in 2 sets yesterday. 2 sets win over Mertens in the q final. 2 sets win over a poor Sakkari in the semis.
Stats for the tournament are better for Collins on serve. She has lost just 1 set. With the exception of her match with Jabeur when she faced 12 bp's and was broken 4 times, she has been really hard to break. She was broken a total of 5 times in the other 4 matches. Kasatkina's return game has been strong this week.
It's hard to go against Collins. Back Collins around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.


Update: Collins took a 2-0 lead after Kasatkina saved 3 bp's. She broke again at the end of the set. Even though Collins had a really low 1st serve percentage of 36% in the set she looked the stronger player. I did not lay in the 2nd set. She easily took the set 6-1.


Collins won 6-2, 6-1. No trade







6th April


WTA Charleston

Pegula 1.56 v Kasatkina

Due to start at 5:30 pm


Pegula 2-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Kasatkina by walkover. Pegula won on hard in Sep 2023, 2 easy sets. She won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are even.
Pegula reached the semis last season. She needed a 3rd set tie break against Anisimova in the 1st round. Easy win over Linette in the 3rd round. She beat Azarenka in a 3rd set tie break. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid.
Kasatkina reached the semis last season. 3 sets win over Kessler in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kalinina in the 2nd round but she did not serve well, winning less than half her serve points. She beat Cristian in 3 sets in the q final. Q finals in Palermo. 4th round at the French Open. 4th rounds in Rome and Madrid.
12 month clay stats favour Pegula on serve. Return stats are better for Kasatkina. Stats for the tournament favour Pegula on serve. I'm not sure what happened to her in the 2nd set against Azarenka but she bounced back well.
Back Pegula around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.




WTA Charleston

Sakkari v Collins 1.78

Due to start at 7pm


Sakkari 2-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Collins in 2. Sakkari won on hard I Oct 2022, 3 sets. She won on hard in Aug 2018, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Collins.
Sakkari had a straight sets win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sharma in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Kudermetova in the q final. She reached the semis in Madrid.
Collins lost in the 1st round last year. She had some strong results on clay in 2021 but has had little clay success since. She won the title in Miami last week and I thought she might not care about this week but she proved me wrong. Perhaps as this is her last season before she retires, she is trying to get the most from it. Easy win over Badosa in the 1st round. She beat Jabeur in 3 sets and Stephens in 2 sets yesterday. 2 sets win over Mertens in the q final.
12 month clay stats are better for Sakkari on serve and favour Collins on return. Stats for the tournament are stronger for Sakkari. Collins has faced tougher opponents.
Lay Collins around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.


5th April


WTA Charleston

Kudermetova v Sakkari 1.55

Due to start at 8:30 pm


Sakkari 3-1. Most recent Oct 2022, hard, Sakkari in 3. She won on hard in Jan 2022 and Aug 2021. Kudermetova won on hard in 2019. Clay win %'s are close but favour Kudermetova in the last 12 months.
Kudermetova lost in the 2nd round last season. She beat Rogers in 2 close sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Haddad Maia in the 3rd round. Semis in Rome and Madrid.
Sakkari had a straight sets win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sharma in the 3rd round. She reached the semis in Madrid.
Stats for the tournament are better for Sakkari. recent performances on all surfaces are better for Sakkari. Kudermetova has been in poor form for a while but has raised her level this week. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Sakkari around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Bogota

Osorio Serrano 1.74 v Maria

Due to start at 10:30 pm


Maria 1-0 (Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Osorio.
Osorio had a 2 sets win in the 1st round but was broken 5 times. Straight sets win over Todoni. She reached the q finals in Palermo in July. 2nd round at the French Open. 4th round in Rome. 3rd round in Madrid.
Maria won the title last season. Straight sets win over Bondar in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets against Riera in the 2nd round. She has reached 4 x WTA 2nd rounds since then.
12 month clay stats are better for Maria on serve. Return stats and predicted holds are better for Osorio. Maria has faced tougher opponents. Recent performances are better for Maria.
Lay Osorio around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.


4th April


WTA Charleston

Collins 1.44 v Jabeur

Due to start at 4 pm


Collins 2-1. Most recent Mar 2022, hard, Collins in 2. Jabeur won on hard in Oct 2021, 2 sets. Collins won on clay in 2020, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Jabeur.
Collins lost in the 1st round last year. She had some strong results on clay in 2021 but has had little clay success since. She won the title in Miami last week and I thought she might not care about this week but she proved me wrong. Perhaps as this is her last season before she retires, she is trying to get the most from it. Easy win over Badosa in the 1st round.
Jabeur won the title last season. Q finals at the French Open. Semis in Stuttgart. Her form this season has been poor.
Back Collins around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.



WTA Charleston

Svitolina 1.40 v Saville

Due to start at 5:30 pm


Svitolina 7-3. Most recent July 2019, grass, Svitolina in 2. She won their last 6 matches. Saville won their only clay meeting in 2016. Clay win %'s favour Saville.
Svitolina lost in the 1st round last year. Q finals at the French Open. Title in Strasbourg. CH semi in May.
Saville has come through the qual rounds. She beat Korpatsch in 3 sets in the 1st round. Semis in Hamburg in July as qualifier. 3rd round at the French Open.
Back Svitolina around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability around 1.50.


3rd April


WTA Charleston

Kasatkina 1.40 v Krueger

Due to start at 5:30 pm


Kasatkina 1-0 (Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets). Clay win %'s are better for Kasatkina.
Kasatkina reached the semis last season. Q finals in Palermo. 4th round at the French Open. 4th rounds in Rome and Madrid.
Krueger lost in the qual rounds last year. She beat Lee in 2 close sets in the 1st round. ITF final in April 2023.
12 month WTA stats are a little better for Krueger on serve. Kasatkina leads on return and predicted holds favour her. Recent performances are better for Kasatkina.
Back Kasatkina around 1.90 to 2.00.



WTA Bogota

Pigossi 1.51 v Bara

Due to start at 7:30 pm


1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Bara.
Pigossi reached the q finals last season. She beat Podoroska in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH q final last week. CH title in Dec. CH q final in July.
Bara lost in the qual rounds last season. She beat Zavatska in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. ITF title in Oct. ITF semi in Oct. ITF semis in Sep. ITF title in April.
12 month WTA stats are stronger for Pigossi. 3 month stats on all tours also favour Pigossi on serve.
Back Pigossi around 1.95 to 2.10,


2nd April


Something I should have posted yesterday is that we need to note that most of the players this week are playing their first clay matches for a while. Most are making the switch from hard courts. We may get a few odd results in the first rounds.



WTA Charleston

Frech v Stephens 1.52

Due to start at 4 pm


Stephens 2-0. Most recent Sep 2022, clay, 3 sets. Both matches were on clay. Clay win %'s are better for Stephens.
Frech lost in the qual rounds last year. 2nd round at the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid as qualifier.
Stephens reached the 2nd round last season. 4th round at the French Open. Semis in Rabat. CH title in May.
12 month WTA stats are a little better for Frech on serve. Return stats favour Stephens. Recent performances on all surfaces favour Stephens.
Back Stephens around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.


Update: Stephens took the first set 6-0 and went a break up in the 2nd set. Frech did break straight back but was broken in her next 2 service games.


Stephens won 6-0, 6-2. No trade.



WTA Charleston

Cocciaretto 1.64 v Bogdan

Due to start at 5:30 pm


Bogdan 1-0 (May 2021, clay, 2 sets). 12 month clay win %'s are even.
Cocciaretto reached a CH semi last week. Title in Lausanne in July. 3rd round at the French Open. CH title in April 2023.
Bogdan won a CH title in Sep. Q finals in Lausanne. CH title in July.
12 month WTA stats are better for Bogdan on serve. Return stats are much better for Cocciaretto. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Cocciaretto.
Back Cocciaretto around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.


Update: Bogdan broke to lead 3-1. There were no more breaks in the next 3 games. Before Cocciaretto served at 2-5, I hedged for a loss. I intended to lay in set 2 but just in case she was broken again, I got out. She was broken again. Note, I use this tactic quite often near the end of a set. 

Bogdan was serving first in the 2nd set and I laid her. She was broken. I took some liability out. Cocciaretto held easily and broke again to lead 3-0. I hedged for a small profit. She would break again to take the set.

In the 3rd set, Bogdan broke in the 1st game. I like to lay a player when they're a break ahead in the deciding set but as it was so early in the set, I stayed out. Cocciaretto broke back to get to 3-3. She was broken in the next game and I laid Bogdan. I kept the liability quite low. 

Bogdan was broken when she serve w=for the match. I hedged. Cocciaretto took the set in a tie break.


Cocciaretto won 2-6, 6-1, 7-6.





1st April


WTA Charleston

Linette v Martic 1.80

Due to start at 4 pm


Linette 3-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Martic in 2. Linette won on hard in 2021, 2 sets and in 2019, 3rd set tie break. Clay win %'s are better for Martic.
Linette reached the 3rd round last year. 3rd round in Rome and Madrid.
Martic reached the 2nd round of the French Open. Q finals in Madrid. She did not play many clay events in 2023.
12 month clay stats are quite close on serve. Return stats are a little better for Martic on return. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Martic around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.


Update: Linette served at 1-1 and went 15-40 behind. I placed a small back on Linette (I favoured Martic to win but thought it would be close).  Linette recovered to hold. My main target was to lay Linette. If I can build up some profit before I get my target entry price it will keep the liability lower. 

3 games later, Martic was broken to 0. I hedged and laid Linette. There were no more breaks in the set which Linette took.

I already had a lay of Linette so did not add to the lay in set 2. 

Martic served first and went 0-40 behind. She was not playing well and I hedged for a small loss. Martic recovered to hold but was broken in her next service game. There were no more break points in the match.


Linette won 6-3, 6-4.



WTA Charleston

Liu 1.68 v Rogers

Due to start at 8:30 pm


Rogers 2-0. Most recent Feb 2023, hard, 2 sets. She won on clay in this tournament in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Liu.
Liu lost in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds. Semis in Budapest in July. CH q final in July. 2nd round at the French Open.
Rogers reached the 3rd round last season. She doesn't play many clay events.
12 month clay stats are better for Rogers on serve. She has had some injury issues. Liu has been in decent form in the last month.
Back Liu around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.


Update: I expected a lot more from Liu but she had a terrible match. 

Liu was broken in the 3rd game. I backed her. Rogers held easily and then broke Liu again in the next game. I hedged for the loss. She would be broken again to lose the set 6-1. 

I tried a small lay in set 1. Rogers was broken and I hedged. I had a small red overall. Rogers won the next 6 games!


Rogers won 6-1, 6-1.



31st March


WTA Challenger, Antalya

Maneiro v Begu 1.59

Due to start at 11 am


1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Begu.
Maneiro has been favourite in every round. In the last year she reached 2 CH q finals. Most of her best results are in ITF's.
Begu has not lost a set this week. She reached a CH final in July. 3rd round at the French Open. Q finals in Madrid. 3rd round in Charleston.
Stats for the tournament are better for Begu overall. This is her first tournament since Aug.
Back Begu around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.


Update: Begu was broken in the 1st game. I placed a small back on Begu. In the next game, Maneiro faced a bp and I removed some liability. She recovered to hold for a 2-0 lead. In the next game, Begu was broken to 0. 

I backed Begu again. In Maneiro's next service game she went 15-40 behind and I removed some liability. When Begu completed the break, I removed most of my liability. Begu was broken again to trail 2-5. 

Maneiro had faced bp's in 2 of her 3 service games but as I already had virtually a free bet on Begu. Maneiro served for the set and saved 3 bp's before she took the game and the set. 

Begu served first in set 2, so I let her have her service game. She held to 30 and I laid Maneiro (adding to my position on Begu). The next 2 games were easy holds. In the next game, Maneiro faced bp. I removed some liability. Begu missed 3 bp's in the game but took the 4th. I hedged.

Begu was broken back 3 games later. She broke again to take the set.  I did not trade the 3rd set. 

Begu was poor in the 3rd set.


Maneiro won 6-2, 4-6, 6-2.



ATP Miami

Dimitrov v Sinner 1.28

Due to start at 7 pm


Sinner 2-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Sinner in 3. he won on hard in Miami 2023, 2 sets. Dimitrov won on clay in 2020. Hard win %'s are better for Sinner.
Dimitrov reached the 3rd round last year. Tough 3 sets win over Tabilo in the 2nd round. He lost just 1 game to Hanfmann in the 3rd round. He beat Hurkacz in a 3rd set tie break. Straight sets win over Alcaraz in the q final. 3 sets win over Zverev in the semis. 4th round in Indian Wells and 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Shanghai. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Chengdu and 3rd round at the US Open.
Sinner reached the final last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He needed 3 sets to beat Griekspoor in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over O'Connell in the 4th round. Comfortable 2 sets win over Machac in the q final. He lost just 3 games to Medvedev in the semis. Semis in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. 4th round in Shanghai. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open and title in Toronto.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Sinner overall. 1 month stats are pretty even on serve but favour Sinner on return. Predicted holds favour Sinner. Stats for the tournament are better for Sinner overall. Dimitrov has been in strong form this season but raised his level even more this week.
Lay Sinner around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back sinner around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.50. 3 sets.


Update: Dimitrov's bubble was well and truly burst. Sinner broke to leads 3-2, I laid him. Sinner then held easily and in the next game Dimitrov faced bp. I hedged for a loss. For Dimitrov to have any chance, he was going to have to serve well. And he wasn't serving well. 

Sinner broke again to take the set.

3 sets did not look likely at all. Not that is is always easy to predict that the second set will be the same as the first. In fact, second sets are often totally different. I just didn't want to lay Sinner so stayed out. Sinner took the 2nd set easily. 


Sinner won 6-3, 6-1.



30th March


WTA Miami

Collins v Rybakina 1.63

Due to start at 6 pm


Rybakina 3-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Rybakina in 3. She won twice in Jan 2023 on hard in 3 sets. Collins won in 2021 on hard in 2 tie breaks.
Collins reached the 3rd round last season. She started slowly against Pera in the 1st round but easily took sets 2 and 3. Easy wins over Potapova and Avanesyan. 2 sets win over Cirstea in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the q final. Another straight sets win over Alexandrova in the semis. Q finals in Austin. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal.
Rybakina reached the final last season. She needed 3 sets against Tauson which was a surprise. She also needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Keys in the 4th round. In the q final she beat Sakkari in 3 close sets. The semi final with Azarenka was a little odd. Rybakina took a tight 1st set before losing the next set 0-6. She took the 3rd set in a tie break after being broken when serving for the match. Final in Doha and title in Abu Dhabi. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing and 3rd round at the US Open.
12 and 3 month stats re better for Rybakina on serve. return stats are close and predicted holds favour her. In the last month, Rybakina leads on serve but return stats and predicted holds favour Collins. Decent chance of 3 sets. Collins has won her last 12 sets in the tournament. She has been favourite in every round. Rybakina has needed 3 sets in 4 of her 5 matches. She won the 1st set in the last 4 rounds. All their previous meetings were very close. Stats for the tournament are better for Collins.
Lay Rybakina around 1.40 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.

Collins has a decent chance to take the title.




WTA Challenger San Luis Potosi

Potapova v Cocciaretto 1.40

Due to start at 11 pm


Cocciaretto 3-2. Most recent Mar 2023, clay, Cocciaretto in 2. She won on hard in Mar 2021, 2 sets. She won on clay in Sep 2020, 2 sets. Clay win %'s are better for Cocciaretto.
Podoroska reached the 2nd round last season. She beat Kessler in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Stakusic in the 2nd round. Easy win in the q final. 2 CH semis in Nov. 2nd round in Hamburg in July. CH semi and q final in June and 2nd round at the French Open.
Cocciaretto won the title last season. Easy win in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Zidansek in the 2nd round. Easy win in the q final. Title in Lausanne in July. 3rd round at the French Open. 2nd rounds in Rome and Madrid.
12 month CH stats favour Cocciaretto. Stats for the tournament favour Cocciaretto.
Back Cocciaretto above 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.



29th March


ATP Miami

Medvedev v Sinner 1.59

Due to start at 7 pm


Medvedev 6-4. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Sinner in 5. he won indoors in Nov 2023 and Oct 2023, 3 sets. He won their last 4 matches. Hard win %'s are a little better for Sinner.
Medvedev won the title last season. 2 sets win over Fucsovics in the 2nd round. He beat Norrie in straight sets in the 3rd round and Koepfer in 2 sets in the 4th round. another 2 sets win in the q final over Jarry. Final in Indian Wells. Semis in Dubai. Final of the Aus Open. Final in Beijing. Final at the US Open.
Sinner reached the final last season. Easy win in the 2nd round. He needed 3 sets to beat Griekspoor in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over O'Connell in the 4th round. Comfortable 2 sets win over Machac in the q final. Semis in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. 4th round in Shanghai. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open and title in Toronto.
12, 3 and 1 month hard stats are better for Sinner on serve. Slight edge to Medvedev on return. Medvedev has not lost a set.
Lay Sinner around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.85. Back Sinner around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.



ATP Miami

Dimitrov v Zverev 1.69

Due to start at 11 pm


Zverev 7-1. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Zverev in 2. He won their last 7 matches. Hard win %'s are even.
Dimitrov reached the 3rd round last year. Tough 3 sets win over Tabilo in the 2nd round. He lost just 1 game to Hanfmann in the 3rd round. He beat Hurkacz in a 3rd set tie break. Straight sets win over Alcaraz in the q final4th round in Indian Wells and 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Shanghai. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Chengdu and 3rd round at the US Open.
Zverev lost in the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Aliassime in the 2nd round. He beat Eubanks in 2 close sets in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Khachanov in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Marozsan in the q final. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in Los Cabos. Semis at the Aus Open. Semis in Beijing. Title in Chengdu. Q finals at the US Open and Semis in Cinci.
1 month and 3 month stats favour Dimitrov on serve. He played one of the matches of his career in the last round. It will be very hard to repeat that level today.
Back Zverev around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.



28th March



WTA Miami

Rybakina 1.36 v Azarenka

Due to start at 7 pm


Rybakina 3-0. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Azarenka retired in set 3. Rybakina won on hard in 2023 and 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the final last season. She needed 3 sets against Tauson which was a surprise. She also needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Keys in the 4th round. In the q final she beat Sakkari in 3 close sets. Final in Doha and title in Abu Dhabi. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing and 3rd round at the US Open.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Stearns in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Zheng as underdog in the 3rd round. She beat in form Boulter in 2 sets in the 4th round. She needed 3 sets against Putintseva in the q final. Poor loss to Dolehide in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha and 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month hard stats favour Rybakina on serve and favour Azarenka on return. 3 month stats are stronger for Rybakina. 1 month stats are better for Rybakina on serve and better for Azarenka on return. In all 3 time periods, predicted holds favour Rybakina. Rybakina has better stats on serve in the tournament.
Lay Rybakina around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Rybakina around 2.10 to 2.20.



WTA Miami

Alexandrova v Collins 1.60

Due to start at 00:30 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Collins.
Alexandrova reached the q finals last season. Straight sets win over Vekic in the 2nd round. She beat Pavlyuchenkova in 3 sets as underdog in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Swiatek in the 4th round. She beat Pegula in 3 sets as underdog in the q final. 3rd round in Doha and semis in Adelaide. Q finals in Tokyo. 3rd round at the US Open.
Collins reached the 3rd round last season. She started slowly against Pera in the 1st round but easily took sets 2 and 3. Easy wins over Potapova and Avanesyan. 2 sets win over Cirstea in the 4th round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the q final. Q finals in Austin. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Collins. 1 month stats are pretty even on serve and strongly favour Collins on return. Stats for the tournament favour Collins. Alexandrova has really raised her level in this tournament and this can easily go to 3 sets.
Lay Collins around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.80. Back Collins around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.



27th March



WTA Miami

Garcia v Collins 1.51

Due to start at 5 pm


Collins 3-0. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2022 and 2019 in 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Collins.
Garcia lost in the 2nd round last year. She came through the 2nd round this week when Tomova retired shortly before the end of set 2. She beat Osaka in 2 sets in a rain delayed match. 3 sets win over Gauff in the 4th round. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Guadalajara.
Collins reached the 3rd round last season. She started slowly against Pera in the 1st round but easily took sets 2 and 3. Easy wins over Potapova and Avanesyan. 2 sets win over Cirstea in the 4th round. Q finals in Austin. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal.
12, 3 and 1 month stats favour Garcia on serve and Collins on return. Stats for the tournament are close on serve but favour Collins. her return stats are much stronger. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Collins around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Miami

Alexandrova v Pegula 1.65

Due to start at 11 pm


Pegula 1-0 (May 2021, clay, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are stronger for Pegula.
Alexandrova reached the q finals last season. Straight sets win over Vekic in the 2nd round. She beat Pavlyuchenkova in 3 sets as underdog in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Swiatek in the 4th round. 3rd round in Doha and semis in Adelaide. Q finals in Tokyo. 3rd round at the US Open.
Pegula reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 2nd round when Zhu retired in set 2. 2 sets win over Fernandez in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Navarro in the 4th round. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide. Title in Seoul. Final in Tokyo. 4th round at the US Open. Title in Montreal.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Pegula. 1 month stats are a little better for Alexandrova. 1 month return stats and predicted holds favour Pegula. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Pegula if she gets an early break of serve. Remove liability if Alexandrova then gets a bp. Back Pegula around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.


26th March


WTA Miami

Azarenka 1.41 v Putintseva

Due to start at 6 pm


Azarenka 2-0. Most recent Feb 2022, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in Feb 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %'s in the last year are pretty even.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Stearns in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Zheng as underdog in the 3rd round. She beat in form Boulter in 2 sets in the 4th round. Poor loss to Dolehide in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha and 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
Putintseva lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Bucsa in 3 sets in the 1st round. Beat Samsonova in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Minnen in the 3rd round. Beat Kalinina in 2 close sets in the 4th round. 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Hua Hin. Q finals in Hobart as qualifier. Semis in Guangzhou and Q finals in Osaka.
12 month and 3 month stats are a little better for Azarenka. 1 month stats favour Putintseva overall.
Lay Azarenka around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Azarenka around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.




WTA Miami

Sakkari v Rybakina 1.40

Due to start at 11 pm


Rybakina 2-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Rybakina in a 3rd set tie break. Sakkari won on hard in Mar 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Sakkari lost in the 2nd round last year. Easy win over Yuan in the 2nd round. She beat Yastremska in 2 sets in the 3rd round. Walkover in the 4th round when Kalinskaya pulled out. She reached the final in Indian Wells. Q final in Beijing. Title in Guadalajara. Final in Washington.
Rybakina reached the final last season. She has not played for a month after withdrawing from the Dubai q finals. She needed 3 sets against Tauson which was a surprise. She also needed 3 sets against Townsend in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Keys in the 4th round. She didn't serve well. Final in Doha and title in Abu Dhabi. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing and 3rd round at the US Open.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Rybakina. 1 month stats are more even.
Lay Rybakina around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.65. Back Rybakina around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

25th March


WTA Miami

Azarenka 1.79 v Boulter

Due to start at 6 pm


1sqt meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Boulter.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Stearns in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Zheng as underdog in the 3rd round. Poor loss to Dolehide in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha and 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
Boulter Came through the 2nd round when her opponent retired in set 2. Straight sets win over Haddad Maia in the 3rd round as slight underdog. She won the title in San Diego this month. 2nd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month stats are very even on serve. return stats favour Boulter. 3 month stats favour Boulter. 1 month stats favour her on serve.
Lay Azarenka around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10. Strong chance of 3 sets.


Update: In her second service game, Boulter went 0-40 behind. I laid Azarenka. Boulter recovered to hold. She was broken in her next service game and Azarenka led 4-2. I added to my lay of Azarenka.

Azarenka came under pressure in her next service game but held. In the next game, Boulter again faced 3 bp but recovered to hold. She broke Azarenka in the next game and I hedged. I left the match alone after that. I was favouring Boulter pre match but her serve is a huge weapon when playing well and she was facing bp's in every service game other than her first service game of the match. 

Boulter did have a bp for a 6-5 lead but didn't take it and was broken in the next game which gave the set to Azarenka. 

Boulter's issues on serve continued into set 2 and Azarenka took a 5-0 lead and took the set 6-1. 


Azarenka won 7-5, 6-1.



WTA Miami

Navarro v Pegula 1.66

Due to start at 11 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Navarro lost in the qual rounds last season. Easy win over Hunter in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Paolini in the 3rd round. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in San Diego and 3rd rounds in Doha and the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
Pegula reached the semis last season. Easy win in the 2nd round when Zhu retired in set 2. 2 sets win over Fernandez in the 3rd round. Semis in San Diego. Semis in Adelaide. Title in Seoul. Final in Tokyo. 4th round at the US Open. Title in Montreal.
12 month stats favour Pegula. 3 month stats are better for Pegula on serve and favour Navarro on return. 1 month stats favour Pegula on serve and Navarro on return. Predicted holds are better for Navarro. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Pegula around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.65.


Update: Navarro broke to lead 3-1. I backed Pegula. In the next game, Pegula had a bp but I did not remove any liability. She did not take the break chance and Navarro led 4-1. 

Pegula held easily and then broke Navarro in the next game. I removed the liability to leave all my profit on Pegula. She broke again to lead 6-5 but was broken when serving for the set. She easily won the tie break. 

I left my free bet on Pegula to run. There was only 1 break in the second set, although Pegula faced 5 bp's in her first 2 service games.


Pegula won 7-6, 6-3.  

24th March


WTA Miami

Paolini v Navarro 1.64

Due to start at 3 pm


Navarro 2-0. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in Sep 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s favour Navarro.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Volynets in 2 tight sets in the 2nd round. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title in Dubai. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir, semis in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing. Q finals in Cinci.
Navarro lost in the qual rounds last season. Easy win over Hunter in the 2nd round. Q finals in Indian Wells. Semis in San Diego and 3rd rounds in Doha and the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
12 month hard stats are better for Navarro. 3 month and 1 month stats are better for Paolini on serve. Predicted holds also favour Paolini.
Recent performances are better for Paolini. Lay Navarro around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.95. Lay set 1 winner.


Update: Navarro broke to lead 2-1. I had laid when Paolini was 15-40 down. She saved one of the bp's but Navarro took the second one. 

Navarro broke again and took the set. As I already had a lay on Navarro and Paolini had not had a good opening set, I did not add to the position at the start of set 2.

In set 2, Paolini served first and faced 2 bp but recovered to hold. She was broken in her next service game and I added to my lay of Navarro who was now a set and a break ahead. Paolini immediately broke back. I did not remove any liability and wanted to give her a chance to hold serve. She again faced bp's but held. In the next game she broke Navarro to lead 4-2 and I hedged. 

the rest of the set was a mess with 2 more breaks. Paolini held serve after facing a bp and took the set.

I stayed away from the 3rd set which Navarro won 6-0.


Navarro won 6-2, 3-6, 6-0.




WTA Miami

Garcia v Osaka 1.46

Due to start at 7 pm


Osaka 2-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Osaka in 2. Garcia won on hard in Jan 2024, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Osaka.
Garcia lost in the 2nd round last year. She came through the 2nd round this week when Tomova retired shortly before the end of set 2. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Guadalajara.
Osaka had an easy win over Cocciaretto in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Svitolina in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha. She reached the final in Miami in 2022.
12 and 3 month stats are better for Osaka. Their 2 matches in 2024 were really tight. Osaka's level since those matches has improved.
Lay Osaka if she gets an early break of serve. Remove liability if Garcia then gets a bp. Back Osaka round 2.10 to 2.20.


Update: I started to trade this match but when it was delayed by rain in the 1st set, I left it.

There were a few bp's but no breaks in the first set. Garcia took the set in a tie break. If I was trading it, I would have laid Garcia after the set. She was broken in the 6th game of the set and I would either have hedged or left a free bet  on Osaka to give her chance to take the set. The second option would not have been good as Osaka was broken back straight away and would be broken again to lose the set and the match.

Garcia won 7-6, 7-5. 

23rd March


WTA Miami

Zheng 1.69 v Azarenka 

Due to start at 6 pm


Azarenka 1-0 (Jan 2023, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s favour Zheng in the last 12 months. They are even in 2024.
Zheng reached the 4th round last year. She came through the 2nd round when Siniakova retired in set 3. Q finals in Dubai. Final at the Aus Open. Title in Zhengzhou and q finals at the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci.
Azarenka reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Stearns in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Poor loss to Dolehide in Indian Wells. Q finals in Doha and 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month and 3 month stats favour Zheng on serve. return stats and predicted holds favour Azarenka. Same pattern in the last month. Recent performances are better for Azarenka. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Zheng around 1.40 and remove liability around 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.


Update: Azarenka got the first break of serve to lead 4-2.  As I expected 3 sets, I laid Azarenka. There were no breaks until Azarenka served for the set at 5-3. She was broken after wasting 3 set points and saving 4 break points. I hedged. 

Azarenka broke again in the next game to take the set.

Azarenka served first in set 2 so I laid her using the profit to keep the liability low. Azarenka was broken in the first game. I removed liability and shifted most of the profit to Azarenka as I favoured her to win. She broke back in the next game. A late break gave the set to Azarenka.

She won 6-4, 7-5.



WTA Miami

Putintseva 1.77 v Minnen

Due to start at 9 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are quite even.
Putintseva lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Bucsa in 3 sets in the 1st round. Beat Samsonova in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Hua Hin. Q finals in Hobart as qualifier. Semis in Guangzhou and Q finals in Osaka.
Minnen lost in the qual rounds. I expected her to beat Liu but perhaps she knew she had a lucky loser place. She beat Tsurenko in 2 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. CH semi in March. Semis in Guangzhou and 3rd round at the US Open. CH final in Aug.
12 and 3 month stats favour Putintseva overall but Minnen leads in service games won % and 1st serve points won %.
Back Putintseva around 2.30 and remove liability around 1.70. Sets should be close.


Update: Putintseva took a 4-0 lead in set 1. She did not face a bp in the set. I was expecting 3 sets so I let Minnen have her serve at the start of set 2. She held to 15 and I laid Putintseva. Minnen broke to lead 3-1. I removed some of the liability. She held for a 4-1 lead and I hedged.

I did not get involved in the 3rd set. A late break gave Putintseva the chance to serve for the match and she did so successfully. 

Putintseva won 6-2, 2-6, 6-4.

22nd March



WTA Miami

Paolini 1.57 v Volynets

Due to start at 3 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year. 4th round in Indian Wells. Title in Dubai. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir, semis in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing. Q finals in Cinci.
Volynets lost in the qual rounds last year. She made it through the qual rounds this week. 3 sets win over Kenin in the 1st round. 3rd round in Indian Wells. CH semis in Feb. Q finals in Hua Hin. CH semi in Jan.
12 month serve stats are pretty even. Slight edge to Volynets on return. 3 month stats are better for Paolini on serve. 1 min the stats are much stronger for Paolini. recent performances are better for her. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Paolini around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.


Update: Paolini broke first to lead 2-0. I expected a close match so I laid her. Volynets immediately broke back and I removed most of the liability. The score reached 4-4 which is often an exit point for me. As my green was not on the player that I favoured to win, I hedged. The set went to a tie break which Paolini won 10-8. Volynets had 2 sets points in the tie break.

Volynets was serving first in set 2 and i let her have her service game before laying. She was broken so I was laying Paolini with a set and a break lead. 

Paolini was broken in the very next game and I removed the liability. The green was on Volynets. Unfortunately she was broken again in the next game. I held my position hoping for another "set and a break" recovery. Paolini held her next 2 service games without facing a bp so I hedged.

Volynets broke 2 games later to get back to 4-4! She would be broken again and Paolini served for the match at 6-5 and held to 15.


Paolini won 7-6, 7-5.



WTA Miami

Potapova v Collins 1.60

Due to start at 6 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Collins.
Potapova reached the q finals last year. Q finals in Indian Wells. 3rd round in Dubai. Q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego.
Collins reached the 3rd round last season. She started slowly against Pera in the 1st round but easily took sets 2 and 3. Q finals in Austin. Q finals in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal.
12 and 3 month stats are stronger for Collins. 1 month stats favour her on serve.
Back Collins around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.


Update: Collins was broken in the first game. I backed her. The next 2 games were easy holds but Collins broke back to get to 2-2. I removed some of the liability. Potapova did not win another game in the set. As she had been broken in her last 3 service games, I did not back Potapova in set 2.


Collins took a 3-0 lead in the 2nd set and I hedged. Collins won 6-2, 6-2.

21st March


WTA Miami

Parry v Haddad Maia 1.63

Due to start at 3 pm


Parry 2-1. Most recent Nov 2021, clay, Parry in 2. All their matches were on clay. Maia's win was by walkover. Hard win %'s are quite even. Parry has the better ROI in the last year and also in 2024.
Parry beat Cristian in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Austin. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
Maia reached the 3rd round last season. Semis in Abu Dhabi. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in San Diego and 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month stats favour Parry on serve. 3 month and 1 month stats favour Parry overall. Recent performances are better for Parry.
Lay Maia around 1.40 and remove liability at 2.00. Good chance of 3 sets.


Update: Parry took a 2-0 lead in set 1. I backed Maia. Maia broke in the very next game and I hedged. As I now had some profit, I could lay Maia and my break even price was around 1.45. 

Parry broke again to lead 4-2 and I removed some of my liability. This time she kept the lead and took the set.

Maia's stats in the first set weren't great so I let her have her service game before laying. She faced 2 bp's during that game but held. I laid Parry. 

Maia broke to lead 3-1 and I removed almost all liability. Maia would break again to take a 5-1 lead and I hedged. 

I did not trade the 3rd set. There was only 1 break in it and went to Maia.


Haddad Maia won 3-6, 6-1, 6-4.

 


WTA Miami

Zheng 1.54 v Siniakova

Due to start at 7:30 pm


Siniakova 1-0 (July 2023, grass, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Zheng.
Zheng reached the 4th round last year. Q finals in Dubai. Final at the Aus Open. Title in Zhengzhou and q finals at the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci.
Siniakova retired from the 1st round last season. She beat Bogdan in 2 sets in the 1st round. She took Svitolina to 3 sets in Indian Wells. Took Navarro to 3 sets in San Diego. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Title in Nanchang. Final in Hong Kong. Q finals in Ningbo.
12, 3 and 1 month stats are better for Zheng on serve.
Back Zheng around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.


Update: Siniakova got the first break of serve to lead 3-2. I backed Zheng. Zheng broke back straight asway and  removed most of my liability. 

Siniakova broke again in the next game. I backed Zheng again. In Siniakova's next service game, she faced a bp and I hedged. I favoured Zheng to win comfortably but she was struggling. Siniakova held on to take the set.

I laid Siniakova. The existing profit kept the liability lower. Zheng made a much better start and took a 2-0 lead. I removed the liability to leave a free bet on Zheng. She broke again for a 4-0 lead and I hedged evenly. 

Siniakova got one of the breaks back but Zheng took the set. 

In set 3, Siniakova was broken in the first game and she retired. 


Zheng won 4-6, 6-3, 1-0(ret)

20th March


WTA Miami

Liu v Martic 1.61

Due to start at 4:30 pm


Martic 1-0 (July 2018, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Liu.
Liu reached the 3rd round last year. She has come through the qual rounds. Q finals in Seoul. Most of her WTA hard wins were in qual rounds in the last year.
Martic reached the 3rd round last season. Q finals in Auckland. 2nd round of the US Open. She had a good record in 1st rounds in the last year but only once won 2 matches in a week.
12 and 3 month WTA stats are better for Martic on serve.
Back Martic above 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60. Liu can keep it close.



WTA Miami

Hunter 1.62 v Trevisan

Due to start at 7:30 pm


Hunter 1-0 (Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Hunter.
Hunter lost in the 1st round as qualifier last year. She has come through the qual rounds this week. CH final in Feb. 3rd round at the Aus Open as qualifier.
Trevisan reached the q finals last season. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in Hong Kong. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are fairly even. 3 month and 1 month stats are better for Hunter.
Back Hunter around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.


19th March



WTA Miami

Bogdan v Siniakova 1.56

Due to start at 4:30 pm


Bogdan 2-1. Most recent Jan 2023, hard, Siniakova in 3. Bogdan's wins were on clay in 2022 and 2021. Hard win %'s are better for Siniakova.
Bogdan lost in the 1st round last year. 3rd round in Dubai as qualifier.
Siniakova retired from the 1st round last season. She took Svitolina to 3 sets in Indian Wells. Took Navarro to 3 sets in San Diego. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Title in Nanchang. Final in Hong Kong. Q finals in Ningbo.
3 month stats on hard re better for Bogdan on serve but strongly favour Siniakova on return. Predicted holds strongly favour Siniakova.
Back Siniakova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.


Update: Siniakova was broken in the first game. I backed her. She immediately broke back and I removed some of my liability. I let that position run which worked out well as Bogdan would be broken twice more. After the set I removed the remaining liability.

Siniakova won the 2nd set with a late break.

Siniakova won 6-2, 6-4.




WTA Miami

Cristian v Parry 1.59

Due to start at 7:30 pm


Cristian 2-0. Most recent Jan 2021, indoor, 3 sets. She won on clay in 2019, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Parry.
Cristian reached the semis in Prague in July.
Parry reached the 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Austin. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
12, 3 and 1 month stats are stronger for Parry.
Back Parry around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.


Update: There were no breaks in the 1st set. When Parry served at 5-5, she went 15-40 behind. I chose not to enter on Parry as it was so close to the end of the set and the value on her was not as good as the same would have been early in the set. Parry saved the bp's and took the set in a tie break. 

In set 2, Cristian served first and was broken. Laying a player when they are a set and a break ahead is usually a good entry so I laid Parry. Cristian broke back straight away and I moved the green to Parry for a small free bet. Cristian only won 1 more game in the match.


Parry won 7-6, 6-2. Small profit.



18th March


The Miami main draw matches start on Tuesday. I will include two qualifying matches for today's suggested trades.



WTA Miami, qualifying

Korpatsch v Timofeeva 1.74

Due to start at 3 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Timofeeva.
Korpatsch lost in the 1st round last year. Straight sets win in the previous round as underdog. 2nd round at the Aus Open. 2nd round at the US Open.
Timofeeva had an easy win in the previous round. 4th round at the Aus Open as qualifier. Most of her matches were in ITF's.
3 month WTA stats are better for Timofeeva.
Back Timofeeva around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.

Timofeeva to win in 3 sets.


Update: Timofeeva broke to lead 2-1. As I expected a close match, I placed a small lay on her. Timofeeva had 2 holds to 15 after that so I hedged for a small loss and waited for set 2. That proved to be a good plan as Korpatsch was broken again. Timofeeva took the set 6-2. 

In set 2, Korpatsch was broken in the first game. I laid Timofeeva as she was a set and a break ahead. Korpatsch immediately broke back and I hedged for a small profit. I did not trust Korpatsch on serve. Korpatsch was broken in every service game in the set.

Timofeeva won 6-2, 6-1.



WTA Miami, qualifying

Minnen 1.71 v Liu

Due to start at 6 pm


Minnen 1-0 (May 2023, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Minnen.
Minnen had a straight sets win in the previous qual round. CH semi last week. 2nd round in Doha as qualifier. Semis in Guadalajara and 3rd round at the US Open. CH final in Aug.
Liu reached the 3rd round last season. 3rd set tie break win in the previous qual round as favourite. Q finals in Seoul. CH final in Aug.
12 and 3 month stats favour Minnen. Recent performances are better for Minnen.
Back Minnen around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

I'm favouring Minnen to win.


Update: Minnen was broken in her first service game to trail 0-2. I back ed her. 3 games later, she broken back and I removed most of the liability. She was broken in the next game and Liu took the set 6-3. 

Minnen's stats, especially on 2nd serve, were poor in the first set so I did not add to my position on her in set 2. She was obviously below par and was broken first in set 2. I hedged for a small red. 

Liu won 6-3, 6-2.


17th March


WTA Indian Wells

Swiatek 1.17 v Sakkari

Due to start at 6 pm


Sakkari 3-2. Most recent Mar 2022, hard, Swiatek in 2. She won on hard in Feb 2022, 2 sets. Sakkari won on hard in Nov 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Swiatek.
Swiatek reached the semis last year. She beat Collins in 2 sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Noskova in the 3rd round. Easy win over Putintseva in the 4th round. In the q final she went behind in the 1st set but Wozniacki retired early in set 2. She lost 3 games to Kostyuk in the semi. Semis in Dubai. Title in Doha. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open.
Sakkari reached the semis last season. She beat Shnaider in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. She needed 3 sets against Parry in the 4th round. 3 sets win over Navarro as slight underdog in the q final. She beat Gauff as underdog in the semi final. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Tokyo and title in Guadalajara. Final in Washington.
12, 3 and 1 month stats are better for Swiatek.
Sakkari has served well this week but Swiatek has served better. We may get a slow start from Swiatek.
Lay Swiatek and remove liability at 1.35. Back Swiatek above 1.75.


Update: I laid Swiatek at the start. She held serve to 30 and then broke Sakkari. I added a little extra to my lay at the new lower price. Sakkari broke back 3 games later and I reduced the liability. The next 3 games were holds of serve. At 4-4 I hedged for a small profit. Swiatek got a late break to take the set 6-4. As I was expecting the match to end in 2 sets, I did not lay in the 2nd set. 

Swiatek won 6-4, 6-0.



ATP Indian Wells

Medvedev v Alcaraz 1.45

Due to start at 9 pm


Alcaraz 3-2. Most recent Nov 2023, indoors, Alcaraz in 2. Medvedev won on hard in 2023, 4 sets. Alcaraz won in last year's final in straight sets. Hard win %'s are pretty even.
Medvedev reached the final last year. Easy win in the 2nd round. He needed 3 sets against Korda in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Dimitrov in the 4th round. Another straight sets win in the q final over Rune. He beat Paul in 3 sets in the semi final. Semis in Dubai. Final at the Aus Open. Final in Beijing. US Open Final. Title in Miami.
Alcaraz won the title last season. He needed 3 sets against Arnaldi in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Aliassime in the 3rd round. Comfortable win in the 4th round over Marozsan. Easy win over Zverev in the q final. 3 sets win over Sinner in the simi final. Q finals at the Aus Open. 4th round in Shanghai. Semis in Beijing and the US Open. Final in Cinci.
12 month stats favour Alcaraz overall. 3 month and 1 month stats favour him. He has better serve stats in the tournament.
Back Alcaraz around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.


Update: Medvedev held in the first game and broke Alcaraz to lead 2-0. I didn't quite get my entry price but place part stake on Alcaraz after the break. When Medvedev held to lead 3-0, I entered the 2nd part of my stake on Alcaraz. 

Alcaraz held serve and broke Medvedev in the next game. I removed most of my liability. The set went to a tie break. I left my green on Alcaraz. he won a close tie break. 

After the set, I removed the rest of my liability to leave a free bet on Alcaraz. He easily took the second set.

Alcaraz won 7-6, 6-1.




16th March


WTA Challenger, Charleston

Shnaider v Cocciaretto 1.92

Due to start at 4:30 pm


Cocciaretto 1-0 (Mar 2022, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Shnaider.
Shnaider played really well in Indian Wells. She does have a lot of strapping on her left leg. She had a straight sets win in the 1st round. She beat Cristian in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Dodin in the q final. 3 sets win over Yafan Wang in the semis. She won the title in Hua Hin in Feb. Semis in Nanchang. Final in Ningbo.
Cocciaretto beat Rodionova in 2 sets in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round. 2 sets wins over Kessler and Minnen. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Monterrey and Merida. Final in Hobart in Jan 2023.
12 month WTA stats are much better for Shnaider. Stats on all tours are better for her on serve. 3 month stats on all tours are better for Shnaider on serve. I have gone against Cocciaretto in 3 of her 4 matches this week. She is performing above her average level. Good chance of 3 sets. I feel this one is Shnaider's to win or lose.
Lay Cocciaretto around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. lay set 1 winner.



ATP Indian Wells

Sinner 1.85 v Alcaraz

Due to start at 8:30 pm


H2H 4-4. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Sinner in 2. He won on hard in Mar 2023, 3 sets. Alcaraz won on hard in Mar 2023 (Indian Wells), 2 sets. Hard win %'s are close but favour Sinner.
Sinner reached the semis last season. Easy win over Kokkinakis in the 2nd round. He beat Struff in 2 sets in the 3rd round. Straight sets win over Shelton in the 4th round. Comfortable win over Lehecka in the q final. He won the title at the Aus Open. 4th round in Shanghai. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open. Title in Toronto and final in Miami.
Alcaraz won the title last season. He needed 3 sets against Arnaldi in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Aliassime in the 3rd round. Comfortable win in the 4th round over Marozsan. Easy win over Zverev in the q final. Q finals at the Aus Open. 4th round in Shanghai. Semis in Beijing and the US Open. Final in Cinci.
12 month stats are better for Sinner on serve and favour Alcaraz on return. 3 month and 1 month stats favour Alcaraz. This should be tight.
Lay Sinner around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner. Tough to pick a winner but Sinner's mental strength this year has been impressive.


15th March



WTA Challenger, Charleston

Cocciaretto 1.45 v Minnen

Due to start at 3 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s in the last 12 months are better for Minnen. They are even in 2024.
Cocciaretto beat Rodionova in 2 sets in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kessler in the q final. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Monterrey and Merida. Final in Hobart in Jan 2023.
Minnen beat Korpatsch in 2 sets in the 1st round. She lost just 3 games to Sasnovich in the 2nd round. In the q final she beat Masarova in 3 sets. 2nd round in Doha as qualifier. Semis in Guangzhou. 3rd round at the US Open. CH final in Aug.
12 month stats on all tours are better for Minnen. WTA stats also favour her. 3 month stats (WTA) also favour Minnen on serve.
Lay Cocciaretto around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.80. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Indian Wells

Gauff 1.36 v Sakkari

Due to start at 1 am


Sakkari 4-3. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Gauff in 2. She won on hard in Aug 2023, 2 sets. Sakkari won on clay in 2022, 2 sets. Only one of their matches went to 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Gauff.
Gauff reached the q finals last season. She was not impressive in the 2nd round and needed a 3rd set tie break against Burel. In the 3rd round she faced 11 bp's but was broken just once by Bronzetti. She lost just 2 games to Mertens in the 4th round. Another straight sets win in the q final over Yuan. Q finals in Dubai, semis at the Aus Open and title in Auckland. Semis in Beijing and titles at the US Open and Cinci.
Sakkari reached the semis last season. She beat Shnaider in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. She needed 3 sets against Parry in the 4th round. 3 sets win over Navarro as slight underdog in the q final. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Tokyo and title in Guadalajara. Final in Washington.
12 month hard stats are better for Gauff. 3 month stats are close on serve but favour Sakkari. 1 month stats are better for Sakkari on serve.
Gauff hit 17 d faults in the last round. 39 d faults in 4 matches. 21 more than Sakkari.
Lay Gauff around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.50. Lay set 1 winner.



14th March


WTA Indian Wells

Potapova v Kostyuk 1.75

Due to start at 6 pm


Potapova 2-0. Most recent June 2023, grass, 3 sets. She won on hard in Mar 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Kostyuk.
Potapova reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Bouzkova in 2 sets in the 2nd round. Easy win over Podoroska in the 3rd round. She beat Paolini in 3 sets in the 4th round. 3rd round in Dubai. Q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego. Q finals in Miami.
Kostyuk lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win in the 1st round and a walkover in the 2nd round. She had a walkover in the 3rd round and beat Pavlyuchenkova in the 4th round. She reached the final in San Diego. Q finals at the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. 3rd round in Beijing.
12 month WTA stats are better for Kostyuk overall. 3 month stats are quite even. 1 month stats are also pretty even but favour Kostyuk on serve. Stats for the tournament are better for Kostyuk. Recent performances are better for Kostyuk. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Kostyuk around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.



WTA Indian Wells

Sakkari v Navarro 1.94

Due to start at 1 am


H2H 1-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Sakkari in 2. Navarro won on hard in Sep 2023, 3rd set tie break. Hard win %'s are better for Navarro.
Sakkari reached the semis last season. She beat Shnaider in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. She needed 3 sets against Parry in the 4th round. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Tokyo and title in Guadalajara. Final in Washington.
Navarro reached the 2nd round last season. She needed 3 sets to beat Tsurenko in the 2nd round. She beat Svitolina in 3 sets as underdog in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Sabalenka as huge underdog in the 4th round. Semis in San Diego. 3rd round in Doha. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
12 month stats are fairly close. Slight edge to Sakkari on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Navarro. 3 month stats also favour Sakkari on serve and Navarro on return but this time, predicted holds favour Sakkari. Navarro has a much higher ROI this season. She has raised her level this week.
Lay Sakkari around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Navarro.






13th March


WTA Indian Wells

Mertens v Gauff 1.28

Due to start at 7:30 pm


Gauff 3-0. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, 3 sets. 2 of their 3 matches went to 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Gauff.
Mertens lost to Wang in the 1st round last season. She had an easy win over Xinyu Wang in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Osaka in the 3rd round. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Final in Hobart. Title in Monastir. Q finals in Hong Kong.
Gauff reached the q finals last season. She was not impressive in the 2nd round and needed a 3rd set tie break against Burel. In the 3rd round she faced 11 bp's but was broken just once by Bronzetti. Q finals in Dubai, semis at the Aus Open and title in Auckland. Semis in Beijing and titles at the US Open and Cinci.
12 month and 3 month stats are better for Gauff. 1 month stats are better for Mertens on serve.
Lay Gauff around 1.15 and remove liability around 1.50. Back Gauff above 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Indian Wells

Parry v Sakkari 1.44

Due to start at 10 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Sakkari.
Parry lost in the qual rounds last year. She beat Trevisan in 2 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Fernandez in the 2nd round. She beat Blinkova in 2 sets as underdog in the 3rd round. Q finals in Austin. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
Sakkari reached the semis last season. She beat Shnaider in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Garcia in the 3rd round. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Tokyo and title in Guadalajara. Final in Washington.
12 month and 3 month stats are better for Parry on serve.
Parry will be competitive. Sakkari has a new coach (who used to coach Pegula until recently)
Back Sakkari around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.



12th March


WTA Indian Wells

Potapova v Paolini 1.78

Due to start at 6 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Paolini.
Potapova reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Bouzkova in 2 sets in the 2nd round. Easy win over Podoroska in the 3rd round. 3rd round in Dubai. Q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego. Q finals in Miami.
Paolini lost to Maria in the 1st round last year. She beat Maria this week in 2 sets. 3 sets win over Kalinskaya as underdog in the 3rd round. She won the title in Dubai in Feb. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir in Oct. Semis in Zhengzhou. 3rd round in Beijing.
12 month stats are better for Paolini. 3 month stats are pretty even. 1 month stats are a little better on serve for Paolini and a little better on return for Potapova. Recent performances are better for Paolini.
Back Paolini around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.



WTA Indian Wells

Pavlyuchenkova 1.76 v Kostyuk

Due to start at 8 pm


H2H 1-1. Most recent Mar 2024, hard, Kostyuk in 3. Pavlyuchenkova won in 2024 when Kostyuk retired in set 1.
Pavlyuchenkova had an easy win in the 2nd round. She reached the semis in Doha. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. Q finals in Hong Kong. Semis in Tokyo. 2nd round at the US Open.
Kostyuk lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win in the 1st round and a walkover in the 2nd round. She reached the final in San Diego. Q finals at the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. 3rd round in Beijing.
12 month and 3 month stats are better for Pavlyuchenkova on serve. 1 month stats are close but favour Kostyuk overall.
Good chance of 3 sets. lay Pavlyuchenkova around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10.




11th March


WTA Indian Wells

Yuan 1.56 v Dolehide

Due to start at 6 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Yuan.
Yuan beat Gracheva in 2 sets in the 1st round. She beat Zheng in 2 sets as huge underdog in the 2nd round. She won the title in Austin. Semis in Hobart. Final in Seoul in Oct.
Dolehide lost in the qual rounds last season. She easily beat Bucsa in the 1st round. Beat Azarenka in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Final in Guadalajara.
12 month stats are very even on serve. Return stats and predicted holds are much better for Yuan. 3 month stats are better for Yuan. 1 month stats are better for year.
Back Yuan around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.


WTA Indian Wells

Blinkova 1.74 v Parry

Due to start at 9 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Blinkova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Pliskova in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Pegula in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Q finals in San Diego. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Semis in Hong Kong.
Parry lost in the qual rounds last year. She beat Trevisan in 2 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Fernandez in the 2nd round. Q finals in Austin. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
12 month hard stats are better for Parry on serve. Return stats favour Blinkova. 3 month stats are stronger for Parry.
Good chance of 3 sets. Some value on Parry. Lay Blinkova around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.



10th March


WTA Indian Wells

Kalinskaya 1.73 v Paolini

Due to start at 8:30 pm


Paolini 2-1. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, Paolini in 3. Kalinskaya won on hard in Jan 2024, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are pretty even.
Kalinskaya reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Townsend in 3 sets. She reached the final in Dubai as qualifier. Q finals at the Aus Open. Q finals in Osaka. 2nd round at the US Open.
Paolini lost to Maria in the 1st round last year. She beat Maria this week in 2 sets. She won the title in Dubai in Feb. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir in Oct. Semis in Zhengzhou. 3rd round in Beijing.
12 month and 3 month hard stats are better for Kalinskaya on serve. She hit 10 d faults in the last round.
Lay Kalinskaya around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Indian Wells

Wozniacki 1.66 v Volynets

Due to start at 1 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Volynets.
Wozniacki beat Zhu in 2 sets in the 1st round and beat Vekic in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round at the Aus Open. 4th round at the US Open.
Volynets lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Andreeva in 2 sets as huge underdog. She beat Jabeur in 2 sets as underdog. Q finals in Hua Hin. CH semis in Jan and Feb.
Stats for the tournament favour Wozniacki on serve. 3 month stats are better for Volynets. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Wozniacki around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. I give an edge to Wozniacki to win.



9th March



WTA Indian Wells

Yastremska v Raducanu 1.73

Due to start at 7 pm


Raducanu 1-0 (Sep 2022, hard, Yastremska retired just before the end of the match). Hard win %'s are better for Yastremska.
Yastremska reached the 2nd round last year. She reached the semis at the Aus Open.
Raducanu reached the 4th round last year. She played well to beat Masarova in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2nd round at the Aus Open.
12 month stats are better for Yastremska overall. 3 month stats also favour Yastremska. Everything fell into place for Yastremska at the Aus Open. her form since that tournament has been poor. This could be really close.
Back Raducanu around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Indian Wells

Garcia 1.52 v Tomova

Due to start at 8:30 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Tomova.
Garcia reached the 4th round last year. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Beijing and semis in Guadalajara.
Tomova beat Kenin in the 1st round. She reached the 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Hobart as lucky loser. CH title in Aug.
12 month stats are better for Garcia on serve. 3 month stats are better for her on serve.
Garcia's recent form has been a little erratic. Generally she served well.
Back Garcia around 2.10 to 2.20.



8th March


WTA Indian Wells

Ostapenko 1.27 v Kerber

Due to start at 7 pm


Kerber 2-1. Most recent Aug 2021, hard, Kerber in 3. Ostapenko won on clay in 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Ostapenko.
Ostapenko reached the 3rd round last year. 3rd round in Dubai. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Adelaide. Q final in Brisbane. Q finals in Beijing. Q finals at the US Open.
Kerber Beat Martic in 2 sets in the 1st round. She took Collins to 3 sets at the Aus Open. She missed the whole 2023 season to have a baby.
Lay Ostapenko around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Ostapenko around 1.90 to 2.00.




WTA Indian Wells

Maria v Paolini 1.39

Due to start at 11:30 pm


H2H 2-2. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Paolini in 2. Maria won on hard in Mar 2023 at this event, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Paolini.
Maria reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Rus in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached 4 WTA hard 2nd rounds this season. Q finals in Guangzhou in Sep. Semis in Cleveland.
Paolini ,lost to Maria in the 1st round last year. She won the title in Dubai in Feb. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir in Oct. Semis in Zhengzhou. 3rd round in Beijing.
3 month and 1 month stats are stronger for Paolini.
Back Paolini around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.



7th March


WTA Indian Wells

Wang 1.74 v Burel

Due to start at 7 pm


Wang 1-0 (Sep 2018, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s favour Burel.
Wang reached the 2nd round last year. Reached the final in Austin last week. Semis in Auckland. Title in Guangzhou. 2nd round of the US Open.
Burel reached the 3rd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round in Brisbane. Semis in Monastir and 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Wang on serve. Return stats favour Burel. 3 month stats also favour Wang and predicted holds favour her.
Back Wang around 2.20 to 2.30.




WTA Indian Wells

Blinkova v Pliskova 1.43

Due to start at 10 pm


Pliskova 2-0. Most recent Sep 2020, clay, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2017, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Pliskova.
Blinkova reached the 2nd round last year. Q finals in San Diego. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Semis in Hong Kong.
Pliskova reached the 4th round last season. 3rd round in Dubai. Semis in Doha. 2nd round of the US Open.
12 month and 3 month stats are better for Pliskova on serve.
Lay Pliskova around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Pliskova above 2.10.



6th March


WTA Indian Wells

Pera 1.91 v Saville

Due to start at 8:30 pm


Saville 1-0 (May 2018, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are close but favour Saville.
Pera reached the 3rd round last year. She has come through the qual rounds. 3rd round at the US Open.
Saville reached the q finals last week. Semis in Hobart. 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month hard stats are pretty even. Slight edge to Saville. 3 month and 1 month stats are fairly even. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Saville around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20.



WTA Indian Wells

Korpatsch v Putintseva 1.41

Due to start at 10 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Putintseva.
Korpatsch reached the 2nd round at the Aus Open. 2nd round at the US Open. Semis in Prague in Aug.
Putintseva lost in the 1st round last season. Q finals in Hua Hin. Q finals in Hobart as qualifier. Semis in Guangzhou. Q finals in Osaka.
12 month WTA stats are stronger for Putintseva. Return stats are close with a slight edge to Korpatsch. 3 month stats favour Putintseva.
Back Putintseva around 1.90 to 2.10.


5th March



WTA Indian Wells qualifying

Pera 1.84 v Osorio

Due to start at 8 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Pera reached the 3rd round last year. IN the last round she needed a 3rd set tie break as 1.01 favourite. 2nd round in Adelaide as lucky loser. 3rd round at the US Open.
Osorio beat Pigossi in 3 sets in the last round. 2nd round in Austin. Q finals in Nanchang.
12 month hard stats are better for Pera on serve. Return stats favour Osorio. 3 month stats are better for Osorio. 1 month stats are quite even but favour Pera.
Lay Osorio around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets.

I favour Pera to win.



WTA Indian Wells qualifying

Hunter 1.55 v Montgomery

Due to start at 10 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Hunter.
Hunter beat Cristian in the previous round. CH final in Feb. 3rd round at the Aus Open as qualifier.
Montgomery lost in the qual rounds. CH q final in Feb as qualifier. 2nd round in Miami in March 2023.
12 month WTA stats are much better for Hunter. Recent performances are better for Hunter.
Back Hunter around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.60.



4th March


Indian Wells starts on Wednesday and runs to the end of next week. There are no main draw matches until Wednesday so I'll look at the qualifying matches today and tomorrow. 



WTA Indian Wells Qualifying

Bejlek 1.94 v Baptiste

Due to start at 9 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Bejlek.
All Bejlek's WTA hard wins in the last year were in qual rounds. She reached an ITF q final in Feb.
Baptiste reached a CH semi last month. She also reached an ITF final in Feb. She reached the 3rd round in Guadalajara in Sep. 2nd round in Washington as qualifier in Aug.
12 month hard stats on all tours are better for Baptiste on serve. 3 month stats favour her on serve.
Lay Bejlek around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets but I give Baptiste the edge.



WTA Indian Wells Qualifying

Dart 1.60 v Semenistaja

Due to start at 10:30 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Dart lost in the qual rounds last year. She reached a CH final in Jan. 2nd round in Guangzhou as qualifier in Sep. ITF title in May.
Semenistaja reached the 2nd round last week and won a CH title in Feb. ITF title and semi in Jan.
12 month WTA stats are better for Dart. 3 month stats also favour her.
Back Dart around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

I favour Dart to win.



3rd March



WTA Austin

Wang 1.61 v Yuan

Due to start at 8 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Yuan.
Wang beat Podoroska in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round. She took the first set from Collins and then Collins retired. She beat Kalinina in 2 sets in the semis. She reached the semis in Auckland. Title in Guangzhou in Sep. 2nd round at the US Open.
Yuan beat Rodionova in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Townsend as underdog in the 2nd round. She beat Yafan Wang in 2 sets as underdog in the q final. Easy win over Schmiedlova in the semi final. She reached the semis in Hobart as qualifier. ITF title and final in Nov. Final in Seoul. CH semi in Aug.
12 month and 3 month hard stats are better for Wang on serve. Stats for the tournament are better for Wang on serve.
Back Wang around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.



WTA San Diego

Kostyuk 1.75 v Boulter

Due to start at 11 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Boulter.
Kostyuk Struggled against Li but won in 3 sets in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Preston in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Pavlyuchenkova in the q final. In the semis she was 1-5 down to Pegula but won 12 of the next 14 games. Pegula is in the doubles final today and probably just ran out of energy having not played for a few weeks. Kostyuk reached the q finals of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide and 3rd round in Beijing. 2nd round of this event in Sep. Title in Austin in 2023.
Boulter beat Tsurenko in 2 sets in the 1st round and Haddad Maia in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Vekic in the q final. Easy win over Navarro in the semis. She reached the 2nd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the US Open.
Stats for the tournament are better for Boulter. 3 month and 12 month hard stats also favour Boulter.
Lay Kostyuk around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.95. Lay set 1 winner.




2nd March


WTA Austin

Kalinina v Wang 1.92

Due to start at 8 pm


Wang 1-0 (Feb 2020, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Wang.
Kalinina beat Bejlek. She lost just 3 games to Osorio as underdog. She started her match with Parry really badly on serve but recovered from being a set and a break behind twice. She reached the q finals in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing.
Wang beat Podoroska in 2 tight sets in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round. She took the first set from Collins and then Collins retired. She reached the semis in Auckland. Title in Guangzhou in Sep. 2nd round at the US Open.
Stats for the tournament are better for Wang on serve. 12 month and 3 month stats favour Wang on serve.
Lay Kalinina around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20.



WTA San Diego

Navarro 1.62 v Boulter

Due to start at 9:30 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Navarro.
Navarro reached the semis last season. She beat Siniakova in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Saville in the q final. 3rd round in Doha. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland.
Boulter beat Tsurenko in 2 sets in the 1st round and Haddad Maia in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Vekic in the q final. She reached the 2nd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month hard win %'s are better for Boulter on serve. Return stats are very even. 3 month stats favour Boulter. Recent performances are better for Boulter. Decent chance of 3 sets. Navarro has not served well this week. Boulter took a while to find her serve in the q final but ended the match well from the service line.
Lay Navarro around 1.35 to 1.40 and remove liability around 1.90. Lay set 1 winner.



1st March



WTA San Diego

Vekic 1.86 v Boulter

Due to start at 7:30 pm


Boulter 1-0 (Aug 2018, hard, walkover). Hard win %'s are better for Boulter.
Vekic beat Hui in 2 sets in the 1st round. She needed 3 sets against Stakusic in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd round in Dubai. 3rd round in Cinci. Title in Monterrey.
Boulter beat Tsurenko in 2 sets in the 1st round and Haddad Maia in 3 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the 2nd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month hard stats are better for Boulter. 3 month stats favour her. Vekic has not served well this week. Its possible she came into each match under prepared as she took the wins for granted.
Lay Vekic around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets.



WTA Austin

Schmiedlova v Sevastova 1.45

Due to start at 10:30 pm


Sevastova 4-0. Most recent Feb 2019, 2 sets. She won on clay in 2018, 3 sets.
Schmiedlova beat Stearns in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She beat Vickery in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd rounds. She reached 3 WTA 2nd rounds in 2024. 3rd round at the US Open. CH semi in Aug. Q finals in Prague.
Sevastova had not played on hard (before this week) since Jan 2022. She returned to the tour on Nov 2023 and reached a q final in Cluj Napoca in Feb and 2 CH q finals in Nov/Dec. In the 1st round she beat Riera in 2 sets. She beat Stephens in 2 sets as underdog.
Back Sevastova around 2.00 to 2.20.



29th February


WTA Austin

Sevastova v Stephens 1.54

Due to start at 9:30 pm


H2h 2-2. Most recent Sep 2018, hard, Sevastova in 2. Stephens won on hard in Aug 2018, 2 sets. Long term hard win %'s are better for Stephens.
Sevastova had not played on hard (before this week) since Jan 2022. She returned to the tour on Nov 2023 and reached a q final in Cluj Napoca in Feb and 2 CH q finals in Nov/Dec. In the 1st round she beat Riera in 2 sets.
Stephens reached the q finals last season. She beat Martincova in 2 sets in the 1st round. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Cleveland and 3rd rounds in Cinci and Washington.
Back Stephens around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.



WTA Austin

Schmiedlova v Vickery 1.76

Due to start at 11 pm


Vickery 1-0 (Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Vickery.
Schmiedlova beat Stearns in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. She reached 3 WTA 2nd rounds in 2024. 3rd round at the US Open. CH semi in Aug. Q finals in Prague.
Vickery has come through the qual rounds. She beat Marino in 2 sets as slight underdog. ITF semi in Feb. 2nd round at the US Open as qualifier.
12 month WTA stats are very even on serve. Return stats are much better for Vickery. Same pattern in the last 3 months.
Back Vickery around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.



28th February


ATP Dubai

Mensik v Fokina 1.70

Due to start at 3:30 pm


Mensik 1-0 (Feb 2024, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Mensik.
Mensik reached the final last week. He beat Coric in a 3rd set tie break as underdog in the 1st round. 2nd round at the Aus Open as qualifier. 3rd round at the US Open.
Fokina reached the 2nd round last season. He needed 3 sets in the 1st round this week. 2nd round at the Aus Open. 3rd round at the US Open. Semis in Toronto. Q finals in Indian Wells.
12 month hard stats are better for Mensik on serve. 3 month stats are closer on serve and return stats are much better for Fokina. The sets should be close.
Lay Fokina around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Austin

Yuan v Townsend 1.84

Due to start at 6:30 pm


Townsend 1-0 (Oct 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are even.
Yuan beat Rodionova in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached the semis in Hobart as qualifier. ITF title and final in Nov. Final in Seoul. CH semi in Aug.
Townsend lost to Stephens in the 1st round last year. She needed 3 sets in the 1st round this week as 1.12 favourite). 2 ITF titles in Oct. 3rd round in Guadalajara. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Townsend on serve. 3 month stats are better for Yuan. recent performances are better for Yuan.
Lay Townsend around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.20.



27th February


WTA Austin

Rakhimova 1.66 v Wickmayer

Due to start at 4:30 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Rakhimova reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. CH semis in Sep. CH final and q final in Aug.
Wickmayer reached the semis in Seoul. 2nd round of the US Open as lucky loser. Semis in Warsaw in July.
12 month WTA stats are better for Wickmayer. 3 month stats are better for Rakhimova on serve.
Lay Rakhimova around 1.40 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner. Wickmayer has a decent chance to win.



WTA Austin

Volynets 1.48 v Zarazua

Due to start at 8 pm


Volynets 3-2. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Volynets in 2. Zarazua won on hard in Sep 2023, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are even.
Volynets reached the semis last year. She reached a CH semi this month. Q finals in Hua Hin. CH semi in Jan.
Most of Zarazua's hard matches are in ITF's.
12 month WTA stats are better for Volynets.
Back Volynets around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.


26th February


WTA Austin

Yuan 1.42 v Rodionova

Due to start at 5 pm


Rodionova 1-0 (Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are a little better for Rodionova.
Yuan reached the semis in Hobart as qualifier. ITF title and final in Nov. Final in Seoul. CH semi in Aug.
Rodionova reached the q finals in Hua Hin in Jan. 3rd round in Brisbane. Most of her matches in the last year were in ITF's.
12 month WTA stats are better for Yuan. 3 month stats also favour her.
Decent chance of 3 sets. Back Yuan around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.



WTA Austin

Ponchet v Parry 1.53

Due to start at 7:30 pm


Ponchet 2-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Ponchet in 2. Parry won indoors in 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Ponchet.
Ponchet has come through the qual rounds. She had an ITF final and semi final in 2023.
Parry reached the 3rd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
12 month WTA stats are better for Ponchet. 3 month stats are stronger for Parry. Recent performances are better for Parry.
Back Parry around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.



25th February



ATP Rio de Janeiro

Baez 1.45 v Navone

Due to start at 8:30 pm


1st meeting. 12 month clay win %'s are better for Navone.
Baez reached the q finals last season. He beat Moutet in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Acosta in the 2nd round. He beat Monteiro in 3 sets in the q final. Straight sets win over Cerundolo in the semis. Q finals last week. Semis in Cordoba. Title in Kitzbuhel in Aug. Q finals in Lyon.
Navone has come through the qual rounds. He beat Coria in 3 sets in the 1st round. Very easy win over Hanfmann in the 2nd round. He beat Fonseca in 3 sets as slight underdog. 2 sets win over Norrie in the semi final. CH final in Jan. CH final in Nov. 2 CH titles in Oct. CH title in Sep. CH title in July.
Stats for the tournament favour Baez on serve. 12 month ATP stats are better for Baez on serve. return stats and predicted holds favour Navone. Norrie struggled with the heat in the semis. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Baez around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Puerto Vallarta Challenger

Preston v Kessler 1.61

Due to start at 11:30 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Preston.
Preston has dropped just 1 set this week. She was underdog in 3 of her 4 matches. ITF title in Nov. ITF title in Oct. ITF title in Sep.
Kessler lost in the qual round. She has not lost a set in the main draw. She was underdog against Liu in the 2nd round. 2nd round at the Aus Open, beating Ferro in the 1st round.
3 month stats on all tours are better for Kessler on serve. Return stats are better for Preston. Recent performances are better for Preston. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Kessler if she gets an early break of serve and remove liability if Preston then gets a bp. Back Kessler around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.70.



24th February



WTA Dubai

Kalinskaya 1.44 v Paolini

Due to start at 2:30 pm


H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Kalinskaya in 2. Paolini won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Kalinskaya.
Kalinskaya lost in the qual rounds last year. She made it through the qual rounds this time. She beat Hunter in 2 easy sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bucsa in the 2nd round and a 2 sets win over Ostapenko in the 3rd round. She beat Gauff in 3 sets in the q final. Straight sets win over Swiatek in the semis. Q finals at the Aus Open. CH final in Oct. Q finals in Osaka. Q finals in Austin.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year as qualifier. She beat Haddad Maia in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Sakkari in 2 sets. She beat Fernandez in 2 sets. 4th round at the Aus Open. She had a walkover in the q final when Rybakina pulled out. Straight sets win over Cirstea who almost staged yet another comeback in the 2nd set and had set points. Final in Monastir. Semis in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing. Q final in Cinci.
Stats for the tournament favour Kalinskaya. 12 month stats favour her on serve. If Kalinskaya plays as she has in previous rounds, there won't be a lot that Paolini can do about it
Back Kalinskaya above 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.



ATP Rio de Janeiro

Baez 1.68 v Cerundolo

Due to start at 8 pm


H2H 2-2. Most recent July 2022, clay, Cerundolo in 2. Baez won on clay in Nov 2021, 3 sets. Clay win %'s are close.
Baez reached the q finals last season. He beat Moutet in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Acosta in the 2nd round. He beat Monteiro in 3 sets in the q final. Q finals last week. Semis in Cordoba. Title in Kitzbuhel in Aug. Q finals in Lyon.
Cerundolo reached the 2nd round last year. He beat Comesana in 3 sets in the 1st round. Easy win over Ramos in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Lajovic in the q final. Semis in Bastad in July. 4th round at the French Open. Final in Lyon and q finals in Rome in May. Q finals in Barcelona.
12 month clay stats are better for Cerundolo. 3 month stats are stronger for Baez. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Baez around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.



23rd February


WTA Dubai

Paolini v Cirstea 1.83

Due to start at 1 pm


Paolini 2-0. Most recent May 2023, clay, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are close but favour Cirstea.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year as qualifier. She beat Haddad Maia in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Sakkari in 2 sets. She beat Fernandez in 2 sets. 4th round at the Aus Open. She had a walkover in the q final when Rybakina pulled out. Final in Monastir. Semis in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing. Q final in Cinci.
Cirstea reached the 2nd round last season. She beat Kenin in 2 close sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. She started really poorly against Vekic in the 3rd round but won in 3. Cirstea saved 6 match points in the 2nd set after she went behind 1-5. Q finals in Abu Dhabi. Q finals at the US Open. Semis in Miami and q finals in Indian Wells.
12 month hard stats are better for Cirstea on serve. 3 month stats also favour her on serve. Recent performances are better for Cirstea. She made a slow start in the last 2 rounds. Good chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Cirstea.
Lay Paolini around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.



ATP Rio de Janeiro

Wild v Norrie 1.40

Due to start at 9 pm


1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Wild.
Wild beat Tabilo0 in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. He beat Munar in 3 sets as underdog. He won 2 CH titles in Sep. 3rd round at the French Open. CH title in April. CH title in March.
Norrie won the title last season. Easy win over Dellien in the 1st round. Faced just 1 bp and was not broken. Very easy win over Barrios in the 2nd round. Poor loss last week when defending final ranking points in Buenos Aires. 3rd round at the French Open. Semis in Lyon. 4th round in Rome. Form this season has not been great and he has had injury issues. Withdrew from Auckland. There is a chance that his loss last week was to give himself time to be fitter for this week.
12 month stats favour Norrie overall. 3 month stats favour him on serve.
Back Norrie around 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

22nd February


WTA Dubai

Paolini v Rybakina 1.21

Due to start at 11:30 am


H2H 1-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Rybakina retired. Rybakina won on clay in 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Paolini lost in the 1st round last year as qualifier. She beat Haddad Maia in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Sakkari in 2 sets. She beat Fernandez in 2 sets. 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Monastir. Semis in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing. Q final in Cinci.
Rybakina reached the 3rd round last season. She beat Azarenka in the 2nd round. Azarenka retired before set 3. Rybakina struggled against Frech in the 3rd round and was close to losing. She reached the final in Doha last week and won the title in Abu Dhabi the week before that. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open. Final in Miami and title in Indian Wells.
Rybakina has played a lot of tennis in the last 2 weeks. She has been well below her best this week.
12 month hard stats are much better for Rybakina. 3 month stats are also much better. However, her fatigue gives Paolini a chance today.
Lay Rybakina and remove liability at 1.45. Chance of 3 sets.



WTA Dubai

Gauff 1.36 v Kalinskaya

Due to start at 4:30 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Gauff.
Gauff reached the semis last year. She beat Cocciaretto in 2 sets in the 2nd round but was broken 5 times. She struggled against Pliskova in the 3rd round but won in 3. Poor loss last week to Siniakova in 2 sets. Semis at the Aus Open. Title in Auckland. Semis in Beijing. Title at the US Open.
Kalinskaya lost in the qual rounds last year. She made it through the qual rounds this time. She beat Hunter in 2 easy sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bucsa in the 2nd round and a 2 sets win over Ostapenko in the 3rd round. Q finals at the Aus Open. CH final in oct. Q finals in Osaka. Q finals in Austin.
12 month hard stats are quite even on serve. Return stats favour Gauff. 1 month stats are better for Kalinskaya on serve.
Gauff has been well below her best in Feb.
Lay Gauff around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Chance of 3 sets.


21st February


WTA Dubai

Cirstea 1.93 v Vekic

Due to start at 11 am


Cirstea 3-2. Most recent June 2022, grass, Cirstea in 3. Vekic won indoors in Apr 2017, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are close but favour Cirstea.
Cirstea reached the 2nd round last season. She beat Kenin in 2 close sets in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kudermetova in the 2nd round. Q finals in Abu Dhabi. Q finals at the US Open. Semis in Miami and q finals in Indian Wells.
Vekic beat Wang in 2 sets in the 1st round. She beat Sabalenka in 3 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd round in Cinci. Title in Monterrey in March.
12 month stats are better for Cirstea on serve. Return stats are quite even but favour Vekic. 3 month stats show a similar patter but Vekic is much better on return.
Lay Vekic around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.


Update: Cirstea had an awful opening set. She was broken in her second service game. She did not have a single break point in the set and was broken again to lose the set 6-2. I had laid Vekic after the first break of serve. I hedged for a small loss when Cirstea was not able to put any pressure on the Vekic serve. I was out before the last game of the set which was a little fortunate. 

Vekic was priced at 1.34 after the set.  As my pre match assessment gave Cirstea the edge, I laid Vekic. She was broken in the first game of set 2.  Vekic immediately broken back.

I stayed with the lay of Vekic and she was broken again 3 games later. Cirstea was serving much better now and I gave her a chance to take the set. She would break again to take the set 6-3.

I removed most of my liability and left my profit on Cirstea for set 3. She took a 3-0 lead and her price dropped to 1.22. I hedged. 

Vekic staged a come back and served for the match at 5-4 but was broken. Cirstea took the set.

Cirstea won 3-6, 6-3, 7-5.


WTA Dubai

Potapova v Zheng 1.51

Due to start at 4:30 pm


Zheng 2-1. Most recent Mar 2023, hard, Potapova in 2. Zheng won on hard in Jan 2023, 3rd set tie break. Zheng won on hard in 2022, 2 tie breaks.
Potapova beat Zhu in 3 sets in the 1st round. She beat Bronzetti in 2 sets in the 2nd round. Bronzetti was awful on serve. She reached the q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego and Miami in 2023.
Zheng reached the 2nd round last season. She needed 3 sets against Hibino in the 2nd round. Final of the Aus Open. Title in Zhengzhou. Q finals of the US Open.
12 month stats are better for Zheng on serve. return stats are close but favour Potapova. Potapova looked sick during her 1st round match but there were no signs of that in the 2nd round. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Zheng around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.80. Lay set 1 winner.


Update: Zheng broke to lead 3-2. I laid her. Potapova immediately broke back. I removed some of the liability after the break back.  Potapova was then broken to 15 in the next game. As I had removed some liability, this allowed me to exit with a tiny profit. Potapova would be broken again to lose the set 6-3. 

As Potapova had been broken in her previous 3 service games, I decided not to lay in set 2. Zheng took the set with a double break.

Zheng won 6-3, 6-2.


20th February


WTA Dubai

Bronzetti v Potapova 1.52

Due to start at 11 am


Potapova 2-0. Most recent Feb 2023, indoor, 3 sets. She won on clay in 2022, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are pretty even.
Bronzetti lost in the qual rounds. She beat Kasatkina in 3 sets in the 1st round. Q finals in Monastir. Q finals in Ningbo and Guangzhou in Sep. 3rd round of the US Open.
Potapova beat Zhu in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached the q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego and Miami in 2023.
12 month hard stats are better for Bronzetti on serve. Return stats and predicated holds favour Potapova. Potapova seemed sick in the last round. She really should have lost but Zhu choked a 4-2 lead in the 3rd set.
Lay Potapova around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.80. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Dubai

Pliskova 1.70 v Krueger

Due to start at 2 pm


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Pliskova reached the q finals last year. She struggled against a rusty Zhang in the 1st round but won in 2 sets. She reached the semis in Doha after winning the indoor title in Cluj the week before. 4th round in Indian Wells.
Krueger beat Garcia in 3 sets in the 1st round. She won the title in Osaka in Sep. Most of her other WTA hard wins were in qual rounds.
12 month hard stats are better for Pliskova on serve. 3 months stats favour Krueger. Pliskova has a title and a semi in the last 2 weeks. her energy levels will be low.
Lay Pliskova around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95. Chance of 3 sets.

19th February


WTA Dubai

Zhu v Potapova 1.77

Due to start at 8:30 am


Potapova 1-0 (July 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Zhu.
Zhu reached the final in Hua Hin. Q finals in Hobart. Final in Osaka in Sep. 3rd round of the US Open. Semis in Cleveland. Semis in Monterrey.
Potapova reached the q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in San Diego and Miami in 2023.
12 month hard stats are better for Zhu on serve. Return stats are quite even but favour Potapova. 3 month stats favour Zhu. Recent performances are a little better for Potapova.
Back Potapova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.



WTA Dubai

Kalinina v Svitolina 1.45

Due to start at 3 pm


Svitolina 1-0 (Oct 2011, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Svitolina.
Kalinina reached the 3rd round last year. Q finals in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing in Oct. 3rd round in Dubai in Feb 2023.
Svitolina reached the 4th round at the Aus Open. Final in Auckland. 3rd round at the US Open. Q finals in Washington and Monterrey.
12 month hard stats are better for Svitolina.
Back Svitolina around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.


18th February



WTA Dubai

Kalinskaya 1.36 v Hunter

Due to start at 10 am


1st meeting. 12 month hard win %'s are even.
Kalinskaya lost in the qual rounds last year. She made it through the qual rounds this time. Q finals at the Aus Open. CH final in oct. Q finals in Osaka. Q finals in Austin.
Hunter has come through the qual rounds. She reached a CH final this month. 3rd round at the Aus Open as qualifier.
3 month and 12 month hard stats are better for Kalinskaya.
Back Kalinskaya around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55.



WTA Dubai

Krueger v Garcia 1.80

Due to start at 11:30 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are even.
Krueger won the title in Osaka in Sep. Most of her other WTA hard wins were in qual rounds.
Garcia lost in the 2nd round last year. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Guadalajara and Cleveland. 4th round in Indian Wells and final in Monterrey.
12 month and 3 month hard stats are better for Garcia on serve.
Back Garcia around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.60.


17th February


WTA Doha

Swiatek 1.53 v Rybakina

Due to start at 3 pm


Rybakina 3-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Swiatek retired in the 3rd set. Rybakina won on hard in Jan and March 2023, 2 sets. Swiatek won indoors in 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Swiatek.
Swiatek won the title last season. Easy wins over Cirstea in the 2nd round and Alexandrova in the 3rd round. Easy win over Azarenka in the q final. She had a walkover in the semis when Pliskova withdrew. 3rd round at the Aus Open. She won the WTA Finals in Nov. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open. Semis in Cinci and Montreal. Title in Warsaw. She reached the final in Dubai.
Rybakina had an easy win in the 2nd round. She beat Fernandez in 2 sets in the q final. Straight sets win over Pavlyuchenkova in the semis. She won the title last week, playing the final just 2 days ago. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month hard stats are pretty even on serve. Return stats are stronger for Swiatek and predicted holds favour her. Rybakina won the title last week so tiredness could be an issue for her today. Stats for the tournament are better for Swiatek.
Back Swiatek around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65. Decent chance of 3 sets.



ATP Buenos Aires

Diaz Acosta 1.94 v Coria

Due to start at 7 pm


Coria 2-1. Most recent Oct 2023, clay, Coria in 2. Acosta won on clay in Feb. 2023, 2 sets and on clay in 2022, 3rd set tie break. Clay win %'s are better for Acosta.
Acosta reached the 2nd round last year. This week he had straight sets win over Altmaier and Cerundolo as underdog. He beat Lajovic in 2 sets as slight underdog in the q final. Q finals in Cordoba last week. CH title in Nov. Most of his best results are in Challengers.
Coria beat Ofner and Norris in 3 sets as underdog this week. He beat Baez in 2 sets as underdog in the q final. He reached the semis last week. CH final the week before that. Q finals in Bastad.
12 month clay stats are better for Acosta. 3 month stats also favour him. Good chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Acosta
Lay Coria around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

16th February



WTA Doha

Rybakina 1.30 v Pavlyuchenkova

Due to start at 1:30 pm


Pavlyuchenkova 1-0 (June 2021, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina had an easy win in the 2nd round. She beat Fernandez in 2 sets in the q final. She won the title last week, playing the final just 2 days ago. Title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open.
Pavlyuchenkova beat Kasatkina in 2 sets. In the 2nd set, Kostyuk retired after 3 games. In the 3rd round she beat Vondrousova in 2 sets. 2 sets win over Collins in the q final. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. Q finals in Hong Kong and semis in Tokyo. 2nd round at the US Open.
12 month hard stats are better for Rybakina. Stats for the tournament favour Rybakina.
Lay Rybakina around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.45. Back Rybakina around 1.90 to 2.00.



ATP Buenos Aires

Lajovic 1.92 v Diaz Acosta

Due to start at 4:30 pm


1st meeting. Clay win %'s are better for Acosta.
Lajovic reached the q finals last year. Straight sets win over Fils in the 1st round. He beat Tabilo in 3 sets in the 2nd round. 3rd round in Madrid. Title in Banja Luka in April. Q finals in Santiago.
Acosta reached the 2nd round last year. This week he had straight sets win over Altmaier and Cerundolo as underdog. Q finals in Cordoba last week. CH title in Nov. Most of his best results are in Challengers.
12 month serve stats are quite even but return stats strongly favour Acosta. Predicted holds are much better for Acosta. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Lajovic around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.


15th February



WTA Doha

Pavlyuchenkova v Collins 1.81

Due to start at 12:30 pm


Collins 3-0. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, 2 sets. She won indoors in Nov 2021, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2019, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are close in the last year.
Pavlyuchenkova beat Kasatkina in 2 sets. In the 2nd set, Kostyuk retired after 3 games. In the 3rd round she beat Vondrousova in 2 sets. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide. Q finals in Hong Kong and semis in Tokyo. 2nd round at the US Open.
Collins reached the 2nd round last season. She has come through the qual rounds. She beat Kudermetova in 2 sets in the 1st round. She beat Bouzkova in the 2nd round in 2 sets but didn't serve well. In the 3rd round she beat Siniakova in 2 sets but was broken 5 times. She lost to Rybakina in 3 sets last week. Semis in San Diego in Sep. 2nd round of the US Open. Q finals in Montreal. Semis in Austin.
12 month hard stats are close with a very slight edge to Collins. 3 month stats are better for Pavlyuchenkova. Stats for the tournament are better for Pavlyuchenkova overall. Collins struggled on serve in the last 2 rounds.
Lay Collins around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10.



WTA Doha

Osaka 1.86 v Pliskova

Due to start at 5 pm


Pliskova 4-2. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Pliskova in 3. She won on hard in 2020, 3 sets. Osaka won in 2019, hard, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are fairly even this week.
Osaka has won 2 of her 5 matches this season. She played well against Garcia in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Martic in the 2nd round. Walkover in the 3rd round when Tsurenko pulled out. She won in straight sets. She did not play last season. In her match with Garcia she was hitting the ball pretty well and with a lot of power. Her first serve % was low.
Pliskova lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. She played the final in Cluj on Sunday. 4th round in Indian Wells. Q finals in Dubai. (Dubai is next week). I thought she would not be interested in this tournament (and would also be tired) but has won 3x 3 setters this week. Having lost the 1st set to Kalinskaya she came through in 3 sets. In the 2nd round she looked really tired after taking the first set from Potapova and went a double break up in set 2. Potapova recovered to take the 2nd set and was twice a break ahead in set 3. Pliskova looked really tired at the end. In the 3rd round she was a set and a break behind against Noskova but recovered to take set 2 and ran away with the deciding set.
3 month stats are better for Osaka on serve. Predicted holds favour her. Pliskova leads on return. I have said this all week but SURELY Pliskova will be too tired to compete. Osaka will be fresher.
Lay Pliskova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20.

14th February



WTA Doha

Tsurenko v Osaka 1.48

Due to start at 2:30 pm


Osaka 2-1. Most recent Jan 2019, hard, Tsurenko in 2. Osaka won on hard in 2018, 2012, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Tsurenko.
Tsurenko came through the 1st round in 2 close sets. She beat Jabeur in the 2nd round. Jabeur started well but fell apart. She reached the 3rd round at the Aus Open. Semis in Monastir in Oct. Q finals in Zhengzhou. 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Indian Wells. Final in Hua Hin.
Osaka has won 2 of her 5 matches this season. She played well against Garcia in the last round. She won in straight sets. She did not play last season. In her match with Garcia she was hitting the ball pretty well and with a lot of power. Her first serve % was low. She came through the 2nd round against Martic in 2 tight sets.
Back Osaka around 2.10 to 2.20. Remove liability at 1.60.



WTA Doha

Azarenka v Ostapenko 1.63

Due to start at 5 pm


Azarenka 4-0. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, 2 sets. She won in Jan 2024, 3 sets. 12 month hard win %'s are better for Ostapenko.
Azarenka reached the 2nd round last season. She needed 3 sets against qualifier Frech in the 1st round. She beat Wang in 2 sets in the 2nd round. 4th round at the Aus Open. Semis in Brisbane. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Dubai.
Ostapenko reached the 2nd round last year. Very easy win over Kalinina in the 2nd round. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Title in Adelaide. Q finals in Brisbane. Q finals in Beijing and the US Open.
3 month and 12 month stats are better for Ostapenko.
12 month hard stats are better for Azarenka on serve. Return stats are pretty even. 3 month stats are very even.
Lay Ostapenko around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.90. Lay set 1 winner.



13th February



WTA Doha

Navarro v Mertens 1.87

Due to start at 12:00


Navarro 1-0 (Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Navarro.
Navarro beat Paolini in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the 3rd round of the Aus Open. Title in Hobart. Semis in Auckland. 3rd round in Guadalajara. Semis in San Diego.
Mertens lost in the 1st round as qualifier last year. Easy win over Stearns in the 1st round this week. Final in Hobart. Title in Monastir in Oct. Q finals in Hong Kong in Oct.
12 month stats are better for Navarro. 3 month stats are a little better for Mertens on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Mertens around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.




WTA Doha

Collins 1.54 v Bouzkova

Due to start at 2 pm


H2H 1-1. Most recent June 2022, grass, Bouzkova in 3. Collins won on hard in 2018, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Collins.
Collins reached the 2nd round last season. She has come through the qual rounds. She beat Kudermetova in 2 sets in the 1st round. She lost to Rybakina in 3 sets last week. Semis in San Diego in Sep. 2nd round of the US Open. Q finals in Montreal. Semis in Austin.
Bouzkova lost in the qual rounds last year. She beat Kenin in 3 sets in the 1st round. Q finals in Auckland. Final in Nanchang and q finals in Seoul in Oct. 3rd round of the US Open. Q finals in Cinci and 3rd round in Montreal.
12 month hard stats are better for Collins. Predicted holds also favour her. 3 month stats favour Collins.
Back Collins around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

12th February



WTA Doha

Fernandez v Samsonova 1.52

Due to start at 10 am


Samsonova 1-0 (Aug 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are close but favour Fernandez.
Fernandez lost in the qual rounds last year. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in Nanchang. Title in Hong Kong. Q finals in Guadalajara. Q finals in Cleveland. 3rd round in Montreal.
Samsonova reached the semis last week. Final in Beijing in Oct. 3rd round of the US Open. Final in Montreal and semis in Washington in Aug.
12 month hard stats are better for Samsonova on serve. Return stats favour Fernandez. Recent performances are better for Samsonova.
Back Samsonova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60



WTA Doha

Osaka v Garcia 1.84

Dur to start at 12:30 pm


H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Garcia in 2. Osaka won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. 12 month hard win %'s are better for Garcia.
Osaka has won 1 of her 4 matches in 2024. She did not play last season.
Garcia reached the q finals last season. She reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. Q finals in Beijing and semis in Guadalajara.
Since Garcia beat Osaka at the Aus Open she has 2 poor losses as favourite. Osaka served well in her match with Garcia and in the first set against Collins last week before she fell apart in set 2. I'm not convinced how motivated Osaka is on her return to the tour.
Back Garcia around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.


11th February



WTA Abu Dhabi

Rybakina 1.31 v Kasatkina

Due to start at 1 pm


H2H 2-2. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Rybakina in 3rd set tie break. Kasatkina won on hard in Aug 2022, 3 sets. Rybakina won on hard in Jan 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the q finals last season. She came through a tough 3 sets match with Collins in the 2nd round. Straight sets win over Bucsa in the q final. She beat Samsonova in 3 sets in the semis. She won the title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open. Semis in Montreal, final in Miami and title in Indian Wells.
Kasatkina reached the q finals last year. She had a tough 3 sets win over Parry in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Krueger in the 2nd round. She lost just 2 games to Cirstea in the q final. She came through against Haddad Maia in a 3rd set tie break. Maia was a break up in the 3rd set twice and had 4 bp's in Kasatkina's last 2 service games. Final in Adelaide. Q final in Brisbane. Semis in Zhengzhou. Q finals in Tokyo. 4th round of the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci and q finals in Montreal.
12 month hard stats are better for Rybakina on serve. Predicted holds also favour her. 3 month stats favour her.
Back Rybakina around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50. Chance of 3 sets.



WTA Cluj

Bogdan v Pliskova 1.51

Due to start at 3:30 pm


Pliskova 3-0. Most recent Feb 2023, hard, 3 sets. Long term hard win %'s are better for Bogdan.
Bogdan beat Parks in 2 sets in the 1st round and Andreeva in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She beat Rus in a 3rd set tie break in the q final. Came through the semi final in 3 sets over Cristian. She reached the q finals last year. She has not played indoors since.
Pliskova did not play indoors last year. She beat Kraus in 2 sets in the 1st round. Her stats were decent but she was not comfortable. Easy win over Osorio in the 2nd round. She lost just 2 games to Errani in the q final. Easy win over Dart in the semis. She has had some good results indoors in previous seasons.
Stats for the tournament favour Pliskova. She has seemed focused this week. Bogdan will have the crowd's support.
Lay Pliskova if she gets an early break of serve. remove liability if Bogdan then gets a bp. Back Pliskova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

10th February


WTA Abu Dhabi

Kasatkina v Haddad Maia 1.91

Due to start at 11 am


Maia 2-0. Most recent Oct 2023, indoor, 2 sets. She won on hard in Feb 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Kasatkina.
Kasatkina reached the q finals last year. She had a tough 3 sets win over Parry in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Krueger in the 2nd round. She lost just 2 games to Cirstea in the q final. Final in Adelaide. Q final in Brisbane. Semis in Zhengzhou. Q finals in Tokyo. 4th round of the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci and q finals in Montreal.
Maia reached the semis last year. She beat Wang in 2 sets in the 1st round. In the 2nd round she needed 3 sets against Linette. She beat Jabeur in 2 sets in the q final. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in San Diego in Sep. 2nd round of the US Open and q finals in Doha.
12 month hard stats are better for Maia. Return stats favour Kasatkina and predicted holds slightly favour her. Tournament stats are better for Maia on serve and Kasatkina on return.
Lay Kasatkina around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets.



WTA Cluj

Bogdan v Cristian 1.95

Due to start at 1 pm


Bogdan 2-0. Most recent Sep 2023, clay, 3rd set tie break. She won on hard in 2011. Indoor win %'s are a little better for Bogdan.
Bogdan beat Parks in 2 sets in the 1st round and Andreeva in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She beat Rus in a 3rd set tie break in the q final. She reached the q finals last year. She has not played indoors since.
Cristian reached the 2nd round last year. Easy win over Bassols in the 1st round. She beat an injured Tauson in the 2nd round. She beat Sevastova in 2 close sets in the q final. 2nd round last week as lucky loser. CH semi in Oct.
Indoor stats in the last year are better for Cristian on serve. Return stats are close but favour Bogdan. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Bogdan. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Cristian around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20.


9th February

WTA Cluj

Cristian 1.74 v Sevastova

Due to start at 1:30 pm


1st meeting. Indoor win %'s are even.
Cristian reached the 2nd round last year. Easy win over Bassols in the 1st round. She beat an injured Tauson in the 2nd round. 2nd round last week as lucky loser. CH semi in Oct.
Sevastova had an easy win over Mitu in the 1st round. In the 2nd round she came through a low quality match with Avanesyan who retired in set 3. She reached 2 CH q finals in Dec. She missed most of the 2022 and 2023 seasons. She was ranked 11th in 2019.
3 month indoor stats are better for Cristian on serve.
Back Cristian around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.



WTA Cluj

Rus v Bogdan 1.74

Due to start at 3 pm


Bogdan 3-0. Most recent June 2022, grass, 2 sets. She won indoors in 2019, 2 sets. Long term indoor win %'s are even. Slight lead for Bogdan in the last year.
Rus beat Minnen in 2 sets in the 1st round. She beat Cornet in 3 sets in the 2nd round. She reached a CH 2nd round in Dec.
Bogdan beat Parks in 2 sets in the 1st round and Andreeva in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the q finals last year. She has not played indoors since.
12 month indoor stats favour Bogdan overall. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Bogdan around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

8th February



WTA Abu Dhabi

Rybakina 1.40 v Collins

Due to start at 1 pm


Rybakina 2-1. Most recent Jan 2023, hard, Rybakina in 3. She won on hard in Jan 2023, 3 sets. Collins won on hard in 2021, 2 tie breaks. Hard win %'s are better for Rybakina.
Rybakina reached the q finals last season. She won the title in Brisbane. Semis in Beijing. 3rd round at the US Open. Semis in Montreal, final in Miami and title in Indian Wells.
Collins has come through the qual rounds. She beat Osaka in 2 sets in the 1st round. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round of the US Open. Q finals in Montreal. Semis in Austin.
12 month hard stats are better for Rybakina on serve. Her form in the last 2 tournaments was poor. Collins served really well against Osaka.
Lay Rybakina around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.



ATP Marseille

Lehecka 1.62 v Rinderknech

Due to start at 6:30 pm


Lehecka 1-0 (Mar 2023, hard, 2 sets). Indoor win %'s are better for Lehecka.
Lehecka beat Goffin in 3 sets in the 1st round. He reached the 2nd round in Vienna and q final in Astana last year.
Rinderknech lost in the 1st round last season. This week he beat Cressy in 3 sets as slight underdog. CH q final last week. He had some excellent indoor results in 2022 but did not find that same form in 2023.
12 month indoor stats are better for Lehecka overall. Serve stats are fairly even. Recent performances are better for Lehecka.
Chance of 3 sets. Back Lehecka around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.

7th February



WTA Cluj

Parrizas Diaz v Blinkova 1.50

Due to start at 1:30 pm


Diaz 1-0 (Apr 2023, clay, 2 sets). Indoor win %'s are better for Blinkova.
Diaz beat Siegemund in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached a CH q final in Oct. She reached the q finals in 2022.
Blinkova had an easy win in the 1st round. She reached a CH semi in Dec.
Neither player has played many indoor matches in the last 12 months. (Diaz 4 matches and Blinkova 3). 12 month hard stats are better for Blinkova on serve.
Back Blinkova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.



WTA Cluj

Andreeva 1.56 v Bogdan

Due to start at 5:30 pm


Bogdan 1-0 (Jan 2022, indoor, 2 sets). Indoor win %'s are close but favour Andreeva.
Andreeva has come through the qual rounds. Straight sets win in the 1st round. CH final, semi and q final in Dec. CH final in Oct. 2nd round in Lyon as qualifier.
Bogdan beat Parks in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the q finals last year. She has not played indoors since.
12 month indoor stats on all tours favour Andreeva overall. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Andreeva around 1.35 and remove liability around 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.

6th February



WTA Abu Dhabi

Osaka v Collins 1.76

Due to start at 10:45


Osaka 3-1. Most recent Aug 2022, hard, Collins in 2. Osaka won on hard in 2022, 2019, 2018, 2 sets. Long term hard win %'s are better for Osaka.
Osaka had played 3 matches in 2024 and did not play a match last season.
Collins has come through the qual rounds. 2nd round at the Aus Open. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round of the US Open. Q finals in Montreal. Semis in Austin.
Chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Collins. Back Collins around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.65.



WTA Abu Dhabi

Kalinina v Bronzetti 1.89

Due to start at 12:00


Kalinina 1-0 (Feb 2014, clay, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Kalinina reached the q finals in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing.
Bronzetti lost in the qual rounds. Q finals in Monastir. Q finals in Ningbo and Guangzhou. 3rd round at the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are quite even but favour Kalinina on serve. 3 month stats favour Bronzetti. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Bronzetti.
Lay Kalinina around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Chance of 3 sets but I give Bronzetti the edge.


5th February



WTA Abu Dhabi

Kasatkina 1.38 v Parry

Due to start at 12:00


Kasatkina 1-0 (Aug 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Kasatkina
Kasatkina reached the q finals last year. Final in Adelaide. Q final in Brisbane. Semis in Zhengzhou. Q finals in Tokyo. 4th round of the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci and q finals in Montreal.
Parry has come through the qual rounds. 3rd round at the Aus Open. Q finals in Auckland.
12 month WTA stats are better for Parry on serve. Stats in the last month also favour Parry. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Kasatkina around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Kasatkina above 2.00.



WTA Cluj

Parks 1.80 v Bogdan

Due to start at 1:30 pm


Bogdan 1-0 (July 2023, grass, 3 sets). Long term indoor win %'s are better for Parks.
Parks lost in the 1st round last season. CH semi in Nov. Title in Lyon in Feb 2023. Poor loss in Linz.
Bogdan reached the q finals last year. She has not played indoors since.
Recent performances on all surfaces are quite even. I give a slight edge to Parks.
Back Parks around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.65.



4th February



WTA Hua Hin

Shnaider 1.97 v Zhu 

Due to start at 9:30 am


Shnaider 1-0 (Oct 2023, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are a little better for Zhu.
Shnaider beat Linette in 3 sets in the 1st round. In the 2nd round, Badosa retired in the 2nd set. She beat Galfi easily in the q final. She played well but Galfi was awful. In the semi final she beat Xinyu Wang as slight underdog. She reached the semis in Nanchang in Oct. Final in Ningbo in Sep.
Zhu won the title last season. She struggled a little in the 1st round but won in straight sets. She was comfortable in the 2nd round against a disappointing Fruhvirtova. Another straight sets win in the q final over Rodionova. In the semis She beat Yafan Wang in straight sets. Q finals in Hobart and 3rd round in Brisbane this month. Final in Osaka. 3rd round at the US Open. Semis in Cleveland. Semis in Monterrey.
12 month WTA stats are better for Shnaider on serve. predicted holds also favour her. Return stats are very even. Stats for the tournament are better for Shnaider on serve. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Zhu.
Good chance of 3 sets. Lay Zhu around 1.60 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner. This should be really close. Slight edge to Shnaider.



WTA Linz

Ostapenko 1.62 v Alexandrova

Due to start at 1 pm


Alexandrova 5-4. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, Ostapenko in 2. She won on hard in Sep 2023, 3 sets. Alexandrova won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. indoor win %'s are quite close.
Ostapenko has only played 2 indoor matches in the last year. She has had some excellent results in previous seasons. She made a really slow start in the 2nd round and beat Tauson in a 3rd set tie break. Very easy win over Burrage in the q final. Beat Pavlyuchenkova in 2 sets in the semis.
Alexandrova lost in the 1st round last year. That was her only indoor match in 2023. Easy win over Niemeier in the 2nd round. Straight sets win in the q final over Potapova. In the semi final she came through in a 3rd set tie break against Vekic. Vekic led 5-1 in that tie break. She reached the semis in 2020. her form in 2023 was strong in the first half of the year but she was inconsistent towards the end. She reached the semis in Adelaide this month on hard.
Stats for the tournament are a little better for Alexandrova on serve and favour Ostapenko on return. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Ostapenko.
Lay Ostapenko if she gets an early break of serve. Remove liability if Alexandrova then gets a bp. Back Ostapenko around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.70.

3rd February



WTA Linz

Vekic v Alexandrova 1.52

Due to start at 12:00


Vekic 2-1. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Vekic in 2 tie breaks. Alexandrova won indoors in 2020, 2 sets. Vekic won indoors in 2017, 2 sets. Indoor win %'s are better for Alexandrova.
Vekic reached the q finals last season. She easily beat Yastremska in the 2nd round, losing 2 games. Yastremska was as bad as I had expected her to be in the 1st round. Vekic beat Burel in 2 sets in the q final.
Alexandrova lost in the 1st round last year. That was her only indoor match in 2023. Easy win over Niemeier in the 2nd round. Straight sets win in the q final over Potapova. She reached the semis in 2020. her form in 2023 was strong in the first half of the year but she was inconsistent towards the end. She reached the semis in Adelaide this month on hard.
Stats for the tournament are a little better for Alexandrova on serve and favour Vekic on return. They have not played many indoor matches in the last year but serve stats favour Alexandrova. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Alexandrova. Chance of 3 sets but I favour Alexandrova to win.



WTA Linz

Ostapenko 1.98 v Pavlyuchenkova

Due to start at 1:30 pm


Ostapenko 5-1. Most recent June 2021, grass, Ostapenko in 2. She won on hard in 2019 and on clay in 2019. Pavlyuchenkova won indoors in 2019, 2 sets. Indoor win %'s are even.
Ostapenko has only played 2 indoor matches in the last year. She has had some excellent results in previous seasons. She made a really slow start in the 1st round and beat Tauson in a 3rd set tie break. Very easy win over Burrage in the 2nd round.
Pavlyuchenkova plays very few indoor matches. She lost in the qual rounds last year. This week she beat Trevisan and Boulter in straight sets. She beat Mertens in 2 sets in the q final. She has had some WTA success indoors but not recently. A q final in 2021. Final in Moscow in 2019. Q finals in Linz in 2018 and several other q finals.
Stats for the tournament are better for Pavlyuchenkova on serve. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Ostapenko. Good chance of 3 sets. Ostapenko is most likely to have a slow start (although may be more focused as she is up against a strong opponent). Lay Pavlyuchenkova around 1.60 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.




2nd February



WTA Linz

Potapova v Alexandrova 1.57

Due to start at 1:30 pm


Potapova 1-0 (Sep 2021, indoor, Alexandrova retired). Indoor win %'s are better for Potapova.
Potapova won the title last year. She beat Errani in 2 sets in the 1st round but wasn't very convincing. Needed 3 sets against Cocciaretto in the 2nd round. She faced 16 bp's and was broken 4 times. Q finals in Lyon in Feb.
Alexandrova lost in the 1st round last year. That was her only indoor match in 2023. Easy win over Niemeier in the 2nd round. She reached the semis in 2020. her form in 2023 was strong in the first half of the year but was inconsistent towards the end. She reached the semis in Adelaide this month on hard.
Recent performances on all surfaces are a little better for Alexandrova.
Back Alexandrova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liab at 1.60.



WTA Linz

Mertens v Pavlyuchenkova 1.84

Due to start at 5:30 pm


Pavlyuchenkova 2-1. Most recent June 2023, clay, Pavlyuchenkova in 3. She won on grass in 2017, 3 sets. Mertens won on clay in 2017, 2 sets. Indoor win %'s are quite even.
Mertens had not played indoors in the last 12 months. She easily beat Bronzetti in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She reached the final in his tournament in 2020.
Pavlyuchenkova plays very few indoor matches. She lost in the qual rounds last year. This week she beat Trevisan and Boulter in straight sets. She has had some WTA success indoors but not recently. A q final in 2021. Final in Moscow in 2019. Q finals in Linz in 2018 and several other q finals.
Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Pavlyuchenkova. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Lay Mertens around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.


1st February



WTA Linz

Potapova 1.65 v Cocciaretto

Due to start at 5:30 pm


H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Potapova in 2. Cocciaretto won on hard in 2022. Indoor win %'s are better for Potapova.
Potapova won the title last year. She beat Errani in 2 sets in the 1st round but wasn't very convincing. Q finals in Lyon in Feb.
Cocciaretto had an easy win in the 1st round. She reached 2 CH q finals in Dec.
Fair chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Potapova.
Back Potapova around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liab at 1.60.



WTA Linz

Ostapenko 1.78 v Tauson

Due to start at 7 pm


Tauson 1-0 (Sep 2021, indoor, 3 sets). Indoor win %'s are better for Tauson.
Ostapenko has only played 2 indoor matches in the last year. She has had some excellent results in previous seasons.
Tauson has come through the qual rounds. She beat Giorgi in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached the q finals last year as lucky loser. CH q final in Dec.
12 month indoor stats are better for Tauson. Recent performances on all surfaces are better for Ostapenko.
Lay Ostapenko if she gets an early break of serve and remove liab if Tauson then gets a bp. Back Ostapenko around 2.30 and remove liab at 1.70.


31st January

WTA Linz

Cristian v Burrage 1.88

Due to start at 11 am


1st meeting. Indoor win %'s are close but favour Burrage.
Cristian lost to Giorgi in the 1st round last season. She lost in the qual rounds this week. She beat Podoroska in 2 sets in the 1st round. CH semi in Oct. ITF title in March.
Burrage has come through the qual rounds. She beat Gracheva in straight sets in the 1st round as underdog. 2nd round in Cluj in Oct. CH q final in Oct. ITF title in April.
12 month indoor stats are better for Burrage overall. Recent performances are close but favour Burrage. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Cristian around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.10.


WTA Linz

Martic v Siniakova 1.83

Due to start at 2 pm


Siniakova 2-0. Most recent May 2022, clay, 2 sets. She won on hard in 2019, 2 sets. Indoor win %'s are better for Martic.
Martic reached the final last season. 2nd round in Lyon in Feb.
Siniakova has won 2 of her last 10 indoor matches.
Indoor stats are not going to help us. 12 month hard stats are better for Martic on serve. She reached the q finals in Adelaide this month. Siniakova reached the 2nd round as qualifier in Adelaide.
Lay Siniakova around 1.55 and remove liab at 2.20.


30th January



WTA Hua Hin

Bai 1.65 v Paquet

Due to start at 8:30 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Bai.
Most of Bai's matches were in ITF's in the last year. ITF titles in Nov and Oct. CH q final in Aug. 2 WTA 2nd rounds in 2023.
Paquet has come through the qual rounds. Very little hard court success in the last 12 months. An ITF q final in Jan was her best effort. Recent performances are better for Bai.
Back Bai around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65.



WTA Hua Hin

Korneeva 1.69 v Wang

Due to start at 10 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are a little better for Korneeva.
Korneeva has come through the qual rounds. 2nd round of the Aus Open as qualifier. Most of her matches in 2023 were in ITF's. She won the Aus Open junior title in 2023.
Wang reached the 3rd round at the Aus Open. 2nd round at the US Open as qualifier. CH title in Aug.
12 month WTA stats are better for Wang. Return stats and predicted holds are pretty even. 3 month stats slightly favour Korneeva overall. Recent performances are better for Wang. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Korneeva around 1.40 and remove liab at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.



29 January


WTA Linz

Boulter 1.96 v Paolini

Due to start at 2:30 pm


H2H 1-1. Most recent Mar 2022, hard, Paolini in 2. Boulter won indoors in 2012, 2 sets. Indoor win %'s favour Boulter.
Boulter reached an ITF final in May. 2 WTA 2nd round in 2022 as qualifier. Her best results have come in ITF's.
Paolini had some wins at the BJK Cup in Nov, beating Garcia. Q finals in Lyon in Feb. Final in Cluj in Oct 2022. 2 WTA q finals in 2022, 2021 (including in Linz) and a semi in 2021.
12 month indoor stats on all tours are better for Boulter on serve and favour Paolini on return. Paolini has the better ROI in the last year. WTA hard stats in the last year slightly favour Boulter. More recent performances are better for Paolini who reached the 4th round of the Aus Open.
Decent chance of 3 sets. Lay Boulter around 1.60 and remove liab at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.



ATP Montpellier

Murray 1.29 v Paire

Due to start at 6 pm


Murray 4-0. Most recent June 2021, grass, 2 sets. He won on grass in 2017, straight sets. Their only indoor match was in the Hopman Cup in 2015. Indoor win %'s are better for Murray.
Murray reached the 2nd round in Basel in Oct. Q finals in Gijon in 2022.
Most of Paire's indoor matches in the last year were in Challengers.
Back Murray above 1.80.



28th January


ATP Australian Open Final

Sinner 1.38 v Medvedev

Due to start at 8:30 am


Medvedev 6-3. Most recent Nov 2023, indoors, Sinner in 3. He won indoors in Oct 2023, 3 sets. He won on hard in oct 2023, 2 tie breaks. Medvedev won on hard in Miami in April, 2 sets and indoors in Feb, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are pretty even.
Sinner reached the 4th round last season. Straight sets win over Zandschulp in the 1st round. He beat De Jong and Baez in straight sets. Straight sets win over Khachanov in the 4th round. Sinner beat Rublev in 3 sets in the q final. IN the semis he beat Djokovic in 4 sets. 4th round in Shanghai. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open. Title in Toronto and final in Miami. Semis in Indian Wells. Q finals in Adelaide 2023.
Medvedev reached the 3rd round last year. In the 1st round he lost the 1st set to Atmane who then retired in set 4. In the 2nd round he went 2 sets behind to Ruusuvuori. He beat Aliassime in 3 sets in the 3rd round. 4 sets win over Borges in the 4th round. In the q final he needed 5 sets against Hurkacz. He beat Zverev from 2 sets down in the semi final. Finals in Beijing and the US Open. Title in Miami. Final in Indian Wells. Title in Dubai. Title in Doha. Semis in Adelaide1 2023.
12 month hard stats are better for Sinner. Tournament stats favour Sinner. He has lost just 1 set so far. Medvedev has lost 8 sets. Medvedev has been on court almost 6 hours more in the tournament. Recent performances are close but favour Sinner.
Sinner is priced a little too low at 1.38. He has taken the 1st set in 4 of their 5 matches in 2023. We can expect nerves from both although this is Sinner's first slam final. He should win but Medvedev won't roll over easily.
Lay Sinner part stake at the start and lay more at 1.25. Remove liability at 1.75 to 1.85. Lay set 1 winner. 4 or 5 sets.



Ottignies-Louvain-la-Neuve Challenger

Coric 1.62 v Riedi

Due to start at 2 pm


Coric 1-0 (July 2023, clay, 2 sets). 12 month indoor win %'s are better for Coric.
Coric needed 3 sets in the first 2 rounds as favourite. Straight sets win in the q final. He beat Dzumhur in 2 tight sets in the semi. Q finals in Montpellier in Feb.
Riedi has come through the qual rounds. He beat Paire in 3 sets in the 1st round. Straight sets win in the 2nd round. In the q final he beat Huesler in 2 tie breaks. In the semi he beat Nakashima in 2 sets as underdog. CH title this month. 2nd round in Marseille in Feb.
12 month stats on all tours are better for Coric on serve and favour Riedi on return. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Coric around 2.10 and remove liab at 1.60.




27th January


WTA Australian Open

Zheng v Sabalenka 1.18

Due to start at 8:30 am


Sabalenka 1-0 (Sep 2023, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are a little better for Sabalenka.
Zheng reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Krueger in 3 sets in the 1st round and beat Boulter in 2. In the 3rd round she beat Yafan Wang in a 3rd set tie break. Easy win over Dodin in the 4th round. Zheng came through the q final in 3 sets after losing the first set to Kalinskaya in a tie break. She beat Yastremska in 2 sets in the semis. She won the title in Zhengzhou in Oct. Q finals of the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci. 4th round in Miami. Semis in Abu Dhabi.
Sabalenka won the title last year. She lost just 1 game in the 1st round. Straight sets win in the 2nd round. She did not lose a game to Tsurenko in the 3rd round and beat Anisimova in 2 sets in the 4th round. Easy win over Krejcikova in the q final. Gauff was beaten in 2 tight sets in the semi final. Final in Brisbane this month. She seemed injured in the final and won just 3 games. Q finals in Beijing. Final of the US Open. Semis in Cinci. Q finals in Miami. Final in Indian Wells. Title in Adelaide 2023.
12 month stats are better for Sabalenka. Stats for the tournament also favour her. Zheng has not faced an opponent inside the top 50 in the tournament. This is her first slam final.
Back Sabalenka above 1.75.



Punta Del Esta Challenger

Mager v Cecchinato 1.75

Due to start at 11:30 pm


Cecchinato 2-1. Most recent Oct 2022, clay, Mager in 3. Cecchinato won on clay in 2022 (2 sets) and 2020 (3 sets). Clay win %'s in the last year are a little better for Mager.
Mager has come through the qual rounds. He beat Gakhov in a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round. He beat Comesana in 2 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. He beat Cerundolo as underdog in 2 sets in the q final. CH q final this month. CH semi and q final in March.
Cerundolo beat Giannessi in 3 sets. He beat Sanchez in 2 sets in the 2nd round. He beat Albot in 3 sets in the q final. He reached a CH q final in Oct and a semi in Sep. Semi in July and final in April. Q finals in Cordoba in Feb.
12 month CH stats are better for Mager. Cecc has been in poor form for months but has found his old form this week. Stats for the tournament are better for Mager on serve and favour Cecc on return. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Cecchinato around 1.45 and remove liab at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.





26th January


Predictions:

ATP Australian Open


Djokovic in 5 sets

Zverev in 5 sets



ATP Australian Open

Djokovic 1.55 v Sinner

Due to start at 3:30 am


Djokovic 5-2. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Sinner in 3. Djokovic won indoors in Nov 2023, 2 sets. Their only previous hard court match was in an exhibition event in 2021. Hard win %'s are close but favour Djokovic.
Djokovic won the title last season. He dropped a set to Prizmic in the 1st round. Also lost a set to Popyrin in the 2nd round. He beat Etcheverry in 3 in the 3rd round. Very easy win over Mannarino in the 4th round. In the q final he beat Fritz in 4 sets. He won the title at the US Open. Title in Cinci. Semis in Dubai. Title in Adelaide 2023.
Sinner reached the 4th round last season. Straight sets win over Zandschulp in the 1st round. He beat De Jong and Baez in straight sets. Straight sets win over Khachanov in the 4th round. Sinner beat Rublev in 3 sets in the q final. 4th round in Shanghai. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open. Title in Toronto and final in Miami. Semis in Indian Wells. Q finals in Adelaide 2023.
12 month hard stats are stronger for Djokovic. Sinner has not lost a set. Djokovic has dropped a set in 3 of his 5 matches. Over a best of 5 match, I'd expect Djokovic to come out on top but this can easily got to 5 sets. Also, if it is played under a closed roof, that probably gives Sinner more of a chance as they are more even indoors.
Lay Djokovic around 1.30 and remove liab at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.




ATP Australian Open

Medvedev 1.74 v Zverev

Due to start at 8:30 am


Medvedev 12-7. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Medvedev in 2. He won on hard in Oct 2023, 2 sets. Zverev won on hard in Aug 2023, 3 sets. Medvedev won 5 of their 6 matches last season. Hard win %'s are better for Medvedev.
Medvedev reached the 3rd round last year. In the 1st round he lost the 1st set to Atmane who then retired in set 4. In the 2nd round he went 2 sets behind to Ruusuvuori. He beat Aliassime in 3 sets in the 3rd round. 4 sets win over Borges in the 4th round. In the q final he needed 5 sets against Hurkacz. Finals in Beijing and the US Open. Title in Miami. Final in Indian Wells. Title in Dubai. Title in Doha. Semis in Adelaide1 2023.
Zverev reached the 2nd round last year. He made hard work of his 1st round match with Koepfer, winning in 4 sets. In the 2nd round he needed a 5th set tie break against Klein. He beat Michelsen in straight sets in the 3rd round. He needed another 5th set tie break to beat Norrie in the 4th round. In the q final he beat Alcaraz in 4. Semis in Beijing and title in Chengdu. Q finals of the US Open. Semis in Cinci. 4th round in Indian Wells and semis in Dubai.
Zverev has spent just 37 minutes longer on court. 12 month hard stats are better for Medvedev. Zverev has got stronger as the tournament went on. He will need a performance on par with his win over Alcaraz in the last round. Performances in recent months are better for Medvedev. Stats for the tournament favour Zverev. 4 or 5 sets. Zverev has a great chance if his level doesn't drop.
Lay Medvedev around 1.45 and remove liab at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.




25th January


Predictions:


WTA Australian Open Semi Finals

Sabalenka in 3 sets

Zheng in 3 sets



WTA Australian Open

Gauff v Sabalenka 1.53

Due to start at 8:30 am


Gauff 4-2. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Gauff in 3 sets. Sabalenka won on hard in Mar 2023, 2 sets. Gauff leads 3-1 on hard. Hard win %'s are close but favour Gauff.
Gauff reached the 4th round last year. Easy win over Schmiedlova in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Dolehide in the 2nd round and Parks in the 3rd round. Lost 3 games to Frech in the 4th round. She did not play well in the q final and needed 3 sets against Kostyuk. She won the title in Auckland this month. Semis in Beijing. Title at the US Open. Title in Cinci. Title in Washington. Q finals in Indian Wells and semis in Dubai.
Sabalenka won the title last year. She lost just 1 game in the 1st round. Straight sets win in the 2nd round. She did not lose a game to Tsurenko in the 3rd round and beat Anisimova in 2 sets in the 4th round. Easy win over Krejcikova in the q final. Final in Brisbane this month. She seemed injured in the final and won just 3 games. Q finals in Beijing. Final of the US Open. Semis in Cinci. Q finals in Miami. Final in Indian Wells. Title in Adelaide 2023.
12 month WTA stats are better for Sabalenka on serve. Return stats favour Gauff. Recent performances before this tournament were pretty even. Stats for the tournament are better for Sabalenka. Gauff has spent 2 hr 43 min longer on court in the tournament.
Chance of 3 sets
Lay Sabalenka if she gets an early break and remove liab if Gauff then gets a bp. Back Sabalenka around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65.



WTA Australian Open

Yastremska v Zheng 1.53

Due to start at 10 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are close but favour Zheng.
Yastremska lost in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds this time. She beat Vondrousova in 2 and Gracheva in 2 sets in the main draw. She beat Navarro in the 3rd round as underdog. In the 4th round Azarenka had a poor match and Yastremska won in 2. In the q final, Noskova was disappointing and was beaten in 2. She won a Challenger title in Aug. 5 WTA 2nd rounds in 2023.
Zheng reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Krueger in 3 sets in the 1st round and beat Boulter in 2. In the 3rd round she beat Yafan Wang in a 3rd set tie break. Easy win over Dodin in the 4th round. Zheng came through the q final in 3 sets after losing the first set to Kalinskaya in a tie break. She won the title in Zhengzhou in Oct. Q finals of the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci. 4th round in Miami. Semis in Abu Dhabi.
12 month WTA stats are better for Zheng on serve. Return stats are pretty even with a slight edge to Yastremska. Recent performances are better for Zheng.
Lay Zheng around 1.30 and remove liab at 1.85. Back her around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65. Fair chance of 3 sets.




24th January



WTA Australian Open

Noskova 1.55 v Yastremska

Due to start at 1 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s in the last 12 months are close but favour Noskova.
Noskova lost in the qual rounds last year. She beat Bouzkova in the 1st round as underdog. In the 2nd round she needed 3 sets against Kessler. She beat Swiatek in 3 sets in the 3rd round. She came through the 4th round when Svitolina retired after 3 games. She reached the semis in Brisbane this month. 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci and final in Prague in Aug. Q finals in Warsaw. 3rd round in Indian Wells and the final in Adelaide 2023.
Yastremska lost in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds this time. She beat Vondrousova in 2 and Gracheva in 2 sets in the main draw. She beat Navarro in the 3rd round as underdog. In the 4th round Azarenka had a poor match and Noskova won in 2. She won a Challenger title in Aug. 5 WTA 2nd rounds in 2023.
12 month WTA stats are better for Noskova on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Yastremska. Stats for the tournament also favour Noskova on serve. Performances in the last few months are better for Noskova.
Lay Noskova if she gets an early break. Back Noskova around 2.20 and remove liab at 1.60. Chance of 3 sets.




WTA Australian Open

Kalinskaya v Zheng 1.57

Due to start at 8:15 am


Kalinskaya 1-0 (Feb 2022, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Zheng.
Kalinskaya lost to Collins in the 1st round last year. She beat Volynets in 3 sets in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Rus in the 2nd round. She beat Stephens in 3 sets in the 3rd round. Paolini was beaten in 2 sets in the 4th round. 2nd round in Adelaide and Brisbane this month. She should be over that by now. Q finals in Osaka. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Austin.
Zheng reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Krueger in 3 sets in the 1st round and beat Boulter in 2. In the 3rd round she beat Yafan Wang in a 3rd set tie break. Easy win over Dodin in the 4th round. She won the title in Zhengzhou in Oct. Q finals of the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci. 4th round in Miami. Semis in Abu Dhabi.
12 month WTA stats are better for Zheng on serve. Performances in the last few months are a little better for Zheng. This should be close but I give Zheng the edge.
Lay Zheng if she gets an early break of serve and remove liab at 1.65. Back Zheng around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65. Fair chance of 3 sets.




23rd January



ATP Australian Open

Djokovic 1.14 v Fritz

Due to start at 3:30 am


Djokovic 8-0. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, straight sets. He won on hard in Aug 2023, 2 sets. Fritz won sets in only 1 of their matches which was in a 5 setter at the Aus Open in 2021. Hard win %'s are better for Djokovic.
Djokovic won the title last season. He dropped a set to Prizmic in the 1st round. Also lost a set to Popyrin in the 2nd round. He beat Etcheverry in 3 in the 3rd round. Very easy win over Mannarino in the 4th round. He won the title at the US Open. Title in Cinci. Semis in Dubai. Title in Adelaide 2023.
Fritz reached the 2nd round last season. He needed 5 sets to beat Acosta as 1.05 favourite. Easy win over Gaston in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round he beat Marozsan in 4. In the 4th round he beat Tsitsipas in 4 sets as underdog. Q final at the US Open. Q finals in Cinci. Semis in Washington. Title in Atlanta. Q finals in Miami and Indian Wells. Semis in Acapulco and title in Delray Beach.
12 month ATP stats are stronger for Djokovic.
Lay Djokovic and remove liab at 1.25. Back Djokovic around 1..75 to 1.90. Back Djokovic if he loses set 1.




ATP Australian Open

Sinner 1.27 v Rublev

Due to start at 9:30 am


Sinner 4-2. Most recent Oct 2023, indoor, Sinner in 2. He won on hard in Mar 2023, 2 sets. Rublev won on clay in May 2022 when Sinner retired. Both Rublev's wins were by retirement. Hard win %'s are better for Sinner.
Sinner reached the 4th round last season. Straight sets win over Zandschulp in the 1st round. He beat De Jong and Baez in straight sets. Straight sets win over Khachanov in the 4th round. 4th round in Shanghai. Title in Beijing. 4th round at the US Open. Title in Toronto and final in Miami. Semis in Indian Wells. Q finals in Adelaide 2023.
Rublev reached the q finals last season. He needed a 5th set tie break to beat Wild. Straight sets win over Eubanks and Korda in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. He beat De Minaur in 5 sets in the 4th round. Title in Hong Kong. Final in Shanghai. Q final of the US Open. 4th round in Miami and Indian Wells. Final in Dubai.
12 month ATP stats are better for Sinner, although they are quite closely matched. Results in the last few months are better for Rublev, but performances against top players favour Sinner. This tournament he has been broken twice in 12 sets. I do not expect this to finish in straight sets.
Lay Sinner around 1.20 and remove liab at 1.55. Lay set 1 winner. 4 or 5 sets.




22nd January


WTA Australian Open

Azarenka 1.38 v Yastremska

Due to start at 1 am


Azarenka 2-1. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Azarenka in 2. She won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Yastremska won on hard in 2019. Long term hard win %'s are better for Azarenka. Yastremska leads in the last year.
Azarenka reached the semis last season. This year she beat Giorgi and Tauson in 3 sets. In the 3rd round she beat Ostapenko in 2 sets as slight underdog. Semis in Brisbane this month. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Dubai. Q final in Adelaide(2023).
Yastremska lost in the 1st round last year. She has come through the qual rounds this time. She beat Vondrousova in 2 and Gracheva in 2 sets in the main draw. She beat Navarro in the 3rd round as underdog. She won a Challenger title in Aug. 5 WTA 2nd rounds in 2023.
12 month WTA stats are better for Azarenka on return. Serve stats are quite even overall. More recent performances are better for Azarenka. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Azarenka around 1.25 and remove liab at 1.60. Back Azarenka around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65.



WTA Australian Open

Paolini v Kalinskaya 1.72

Due to start at 6 am


Paolini 1-0 (Sep 2021, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Paolini lost in the 1st round to Samsonova last season. This week she beat Shnaider and Maria in 2 sets. Another straight sets win in the 3rd round over Blinkova. Final in Monastir and semis in Zhengzhou in Oct. 3rd round in Beijing. Q finals in Cinci. 3rd round in Montreal.
Kalinskaya lost to Collins in the 1st round last year. She beat Volynets in 3 sets in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Rus in the 2nd round. She beat Stephens in 3 sets in the 3rd round. 2nd round in Adelaide and Brisbane this month. She should be over that by now. Q finals in Osaka. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Austin.
12 month WTA stats are better for Kalinskaya on serve. Predicted holds favour her. recent performances are a little better for Kalinskaya.
Back Kalinskaya around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65. Fair chance of 3 sets.




21st January



WTA Australian Open

Kostyuk 1.54 v Timofeeva

Due to start at 2 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Timofeeva.
Kostyuk reached the 3rd round last year. She needed 3 sets against Liu in the 1st round. She beat Mertens in a 3rd set tie break in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round she beat Avanesyan in 3 sets as favourite. Q finals in Adelaide this month. 3rd round in Beijing and Washington. Title in Austin in March. Q finals in Hua Hin and Adelaide 2023.
Timofeeva has come through the qual rounds. She beat Cornet in 2 sets and Wozniacki in 3 sets. In the 3rd round she beat Haddad Maia in 2. Almost all her matches were in ITF's. She won an ITF title in Jan 2023 and reached another final in April.
12 month WTA hard stats are better for Timofeeva. Before this tournament she has had no main tour success. She had lost both her previous WTA hard matches. Kostyuk is not going to have an easy match.
Lay Kostyuk around 1.30 and remove liab at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Australian Open

Andreeva 1.51 v Krejcikova

Due to start at 4:30 am


Andreeva 2-0. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, 2 sets. She won on grass in 2023, Krejcikova retired. Hard win %'s are better for Andreeva.
Andreeva beat Pera in 2 sets in the 1st round. She beat Jabeur in 2 sets in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round she was 1-5 down to Parry in the final set before recovering to win in a tie break. She reached the q finals in Brisbane and 2nd round in Hong Kong this month. 3rd round in Beijing. She reached the final of the Aus Open Juniors in 2023.
Krejcikova made the 4th round last year. She needed 3 sets in the 1st round as 1.14 favourite. Beat Korpatsch in 2 sets in the 2nd round. Needed 3 sets in the 3rd round against Hunter. Final in Zhengzhou in Oct and title in San Diego in Sep. 4th rounds in Miami and Indian Wells. Title in Dubai.
12 month WTA stats are better for Andreeva. Stats since September are better for Andreeva. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Andreeva around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.




20th January


WTA Australian Open

Kalinskaya 1.86 v Stephens

Due to start at midnight


H2H 1-1. Most recent Feb 2022, hard, Kalinskaya retired. Kalinskaya won on hard in 2019, hard, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Kalinskaya.
Kalinskaya lost to Collins in the 1st round last year. She beat Volynets in 3 sets in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Rus in the 2nd round. 2nd round in Adelaide and Brisbane this month. She was injured in her last match. She should be over that by now. Q finals in Osaka. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Austin.
Stephens lost in the 1st round last year. She had an easy win over Gadecki in the 1st round. She beat Kasatkina in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. Q finals in Cleveland. 3rd round in Cinci. 3rd round Montreal. Q finals in Austin and Merida.
12 month hard stats are better for Kalinskaya. Recent performances are better for Kalinskaya. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Stephens around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Australian Open

Ostapenko 1.79 v Azarenka

Due to start at 3 am


Azarenka 3-0. Most recent Jan 2024, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are close but favour Ostapenko.
Ostapenko reached the q finals last year. This year she beat Birrell in straight sets. The first set was very tight. She beat Tomljanovic in 3. She won the title in Adelaide and made the q finals in Brisbane this month. Q finals in Beijing. Q finals of the US Open. 4th round in Miami. 3rd round in Dubai.
Azarenka reached the semis last season. This year she beat Giorgi and Tauson in 3 sets. Semis in Brisbane this month. Q finals in Guadalajara. 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Dubai. Q final in Adelaide(2023).
12 month hard stats are better for Ostapenko on serve. return stats and predicted holds favour Azarenka. Good chance of 3 sets. Recent performances are strong for both but favour Ostapenko.
Lay Azarenka around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.




19th January


WTA Australian Open

Anisimova v Badosa 1.68

Due to start at midnight


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Anisimova lost in the 1st round last season. She beat out of form Samsonova in straight sets. Beat Podoroska in 2 sets in the 2nd round. She reached 2 WTA 2nd rounds last year. She reached the 2nd round in Auckland this month.
Badosa reached the semis in Adelaide(2023). Poor loss to Pera this month. She did take that match to 3 sets. She improved a great deal and beat Townsend in 2 sets. She beat Pavlyuchenkova in 2 sets as underdog in the 2nd round.
Neither player has played many matches in the last year. 12 month hard stats are better for Badosa on serve. She seems to be enjoying being back on court. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Badosa around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65.



ATP Australian Open

Korda v Rublev 1.43

Due to start at 9:30 am


Rublev 2-0. Most recent Oct 2022, indoor, 2 sets. He won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Rublev.
Korda reached the q finals last season. Needed 5 sets against Kopriva in the 1st round. Beat Halys in 3 sets in the 2nd round. Semis in Adelaide this month. Semis in Shanghai, Zhuhai and Winston Salem. Final in Adelaide 2023.
Rublev reached the q finals last season. He needed a 5th set tie break to beat Wild. Straight sets win over Eubanks in the 2nd round. Title in Hong Kong. Final in Shanghai. Q final of the US Open. 4th round in Miami and Indian Wells. Final in Dubai.
12 month hard stats are better for Rublev on serve. Korda leads return games won % and has a slight lead in the predicted holds. Recent performances are strong for both players. Slight edge to Rublev.
4 or 5 sets. Back Rublev around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liab at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.




18th January



WTA Australian Open

Rus v Kalinskaya 1.51

Due to start at midnight


H2H 1-1. Most recent Oct 2018, indoor, Rus in 3. Kalinskaya won on grass in 2018, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are close.
Rus lost in the qual rounds last season. In the 1st round she lost just 1 game to Kalinina. She reached the q finals in Hobart this month.
Kalinskaya lost to Collins in the 1st round last year. She beat Volynets in 3 sets in the 1st round. 2nd round in Adelaide and Brisbane this month. She was injured in her last match. She should be over that by now. Q finals in Osaka. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Austin.
12 month hard stats are better for Kalinskaya. Rus has raised her game recently and can take this to 3 sets.
Back Kalinskaya around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liab at 1.65.




WTA Australian Open

Maria v Paolini 1.42

Due to start at 2 am


Maria 2-1. Most recent Mar 2023, hard, Maria in 2. She won on grass in 2017. Hard win %'s are pretty even.
Maria lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Osorio in 3 sets as underdog in the 1st round. Q finals in Guangzhou. Semis in Cleveland. Challenger title in Aug. Semis in Warsaw. Q finals in Hua Hin.
Paolini lost in the 1st round to Samsonova last season. This week she beat Shnaider in 2 sets. Final in Monastir and semis in Zhengzhou in Oct. 3rd round in Beijing. Q finals in Cinci. 3rd round in Montreal.
12 month hard stats are very even. Small edge to Paolini overall. Recent performances are better for Paolini.
Back Paolini around 1.90 to 2.00 and remove liab at 1.55.




17th January



WTA Australian Open

Rakhimova v Parry 1.86

Due to start at midnight


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Rakhimova.
Rakhimova lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Bektas in 2 sets as slight underdog. She reached the semis of a Challenger in Oct. Q finals and final in Challengers in Aug.
Parry lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Wang in the 1st round as underdog in 3 sets. She won 2 of her last 10 on hard. She reached the q finals in Auckland this month.
12 month WTA stats are better for Parry on serve. Return stats and predicted holds are better for Rakhimova. Recent performances are better for Parry. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Rakhimova around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Australian Open

Badosa v Pavlyuchenkova 1.88

Due to start at 2 am


1st meeting. 12 month hard win %'s are better for Pavlyuchenkova
Badosa reached the semis in Adelaide(2023). Poor loss to Pera this month. She did take that match to 3 sets. She improved a great deal and beat Townsend in 2 sets.
Pavlyuchenkova lost in the 1st round last year. She beat Vekic in 2 sets. Q finals in Adelaide as qualifier this month. Q finals in Hong Kong. Semis in Tokyo. 2nd round of the US Open.
12 month WTA stats are better for Badosa on serve. She had some injury issues in the last few months but seems to be over them. Recent performances are better for Pavlyuchenkova. 3 sets.
Lay Badosa around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.




16th January



WTA Australian Open

Collins 1.42 v Kerber

Due to start at 2 am


H2H 1-1. Most recent Jan 2019, hard, Collins in 2. Kerber won on grass in 2018, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Collins.
Collins reached the 3rd round last year. Semis in San Diego. 2nd round at the US Open. Q finals in Montreal and semis in Austin. Q finals in Adelaide2(2023).
Kerber had not played since Wimbledon, July 2022. She was having a baby and took a break. She returned for the United Cup this month. She lost 4 of her 5 matches.
Collins has not been at her best since Sep. Kerber can give her a few problems. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Lay Collins around 1.25 and remove liab at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Australian Open

Boulter 1.63 v Yuan

Due to start at 3:30 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Yuan.
Boulter lost in the qual rounds last year. 3rd round at the US Open. Most of her WTA wins were in qual rounds.
Yuan lost to Sakkari in the 1st round last season. Semis in Hobart and 2nd round in Auckland this month. Final in Seoul in Oct. Challenger semi in Aug. Recent performances are much better for Yuan.
12 month WTA stats are better for Boulter overall.
Lay Boulter around 1.40 and remove liab at 1.90. Chance of 3 sets but I favour Yuan.




15th January



WTA Australian Open

Noskova v Bouzkova 1.66

Due to start at midnight


Bouzkova 2-0. Most recent Aug 2022, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in July 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Noskova.
Noskova lost in the qual rounds last year. She reached the semis in Brisbane this month. 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Cinci and final in Prague in Aug. Q finals in Warsaw. 3rd round in Indian Wells and the final in Adelaide 2023.
Bouzkova lost in the 1st round to Andreescu last year. This month she reached the q finals in Auckland. Final in Nanchang and q final in Seoul in Oct. 3rd round of the US Open. Q finals in Cinci. 3rd round in Montreal.
12 month WTA hard stats are better for Noskova on serve. Return stats and predicted holds favour Putintseva. Same pattern in the 3 month stats. Recent performances are better for Bouzkova.
Chance of 3 sets. Back Bouzkova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65.



WTA Australian Open

Kalinina 1.60 v Rus

Due to start at 5:30 am


H2H 1-1. Most recent Nov 2023, indoor, Kalinina in 2. Rus won on clay in 2017. Hard win %'s are quite even.
Kalinina reached the 3rd round last year. Q finals in Zhengzhou and 3rd round in Beijing in Oct. 3rd round in Dubai. Q finals in Hobart(2023).
Rus lost in the qual rounds last season. She reached the q finals in Hobart this month.
12 month stats are better for Kalinina overall.
Back Kalinina around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.70.



14th January



WTA Australian Open

Rakhimova v Bektas 1.85

Due to start at midnight


Bektas 2-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Bektas in 3. Rakhimova won on hard in Sep 2023, 3rd set tie break. Hard win %'s are better for Bektas.
Rakhimova lost in the 1st round last year. She reached the semis of a Challenger in Oct. Q finals and final in Challengers in Aug.
Bektas won a Challenger title in Oct. Semis in Seoul. Most of her tennis was played in ITF's.
WTA hard stats in the last 12 months are better for Bektas on serve. Predicted holds favour her.
Good chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Bektas.
Lay Rakhimova around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.20.



WTA Australian Open

Parry v Wang 1.43

Due to start at


Wang 1-0 (Feb 2021, indoor, Parry retired). Hard win %'s are better for Wang.
Parry lost in the 1st round last year. She won 2 of her last 10 on hard. She reached the q finals in Auckland this month.
Wang reached the 2nd round last season. She reached 2nd rounds in Auckland and Hobart. 3rd round in Beijing, semis in Osaka and 4th round at the US Open. Q finals in Cleveland. 3rd round in Indian Wells, semis in Hua Hin and q finals in Hobart 2023.
12 month WTA hard stats are better for Wang. Parry served fairly well in Auckland and could take it to 3 sets.
Lay Wang around 1.30 and remove liab at 1.65. Back Wang above 2.10.




13th January


Predictions:


WTA Hobart

Mertens in 3 sets


WTA Adelaide

Ostapenko in 2 sets


ATP Adelaide

Draper in 3 sets


ATP Auckland

Tabilo in 3 sets




WTA Hobart

Mertens 1.79 v Navarro

Due to start at 2 am


1st meeting. Hard win %;'s are a little better for Navarro.
Mertens lost in the 1st round last season. She beat Collins in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. Easy win over Schmiedlova and Rus in the 2nd round and q final. In the semis she had a tough 3 sets win over Saville. She was broken 3 times in 3 sets. Title in Monastir in Oct. Q finals in Hong Kong. 3rd round at the US Open. 4th round in Miami, Semis in Monterrey. 3rd round at the Aus Open.
Navarro beat Burel in 3 sets in the 1st round and Frech in 2 sets in the 2nd round. In the q final she needed 3 sets to beat Tomova. She faced 16 bp's but was broken just 3 times. IN the semis she came through a tough opening set with Yuan and took the match in 2 sets. She reached the semis last week, losing to Gauff. 3rd round in Guadalajara. Semis in San Diego.
12 month hard stats favour Navarro overall but they are pretty even. 3 month stats favour Mertens. Stats for the tournament also favour Mertens. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Navarro around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.



WTA Adelaide

Ostapenko 1.65 v Kasatkina

Due to start at 7:30 am


Ostapenko 5-2. Most recent May 2023, clay, Ostapenko in 3 sets. She won on grass twice in 2021, 3 sets each time. Kasatkina won their last match on hard in 2017. Hard win %'s in the last 12 months are better for Ostapenko.
Ostapenko beat Cirstea in 3 sets. In the 2nd round she beat Garcia in 3. She looked like she was going to retire through injury and had an MTO near the end of set 1. Somehow she recovered. She beat Kostyuk in 2 sets in the q final. In the semi final she easily took the first set but was 3-5 down in set 2 before recovering to take the set in a tie break. She reached the q finals last week. Q finals in Beijing in Oct. Q finals of the US Open. 4th round in Miami and q finals of the Aus Open.
Kasatkina beat Liu in 2 sets in the 1st round. In the 2nd round she was being outplayed by Kalinskaya and was a set and 0-4 down. Kalinskaya had an injury problem and lost the next 8 games. She had a walkover in the q finals and the semis when Siegemund and Pegula withdrew. She reached the q finals last week. Semis in Zhengzhou, q finals in Tokyo and 4th round of the US Open. Q finals in Montreal and final in Adelaide2.
12 month hard stats are better for Ostapenko on serve. Predicted holds favour her. Kasatkina leads on return.
Kasatkina has led a charmed life this week. Ostapenko had some sort of injury early in the week but still recovered and has not lost a set in the last 2 rounds.
Back Ostapenko around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.60. Back Ostapenko if she loses set 1.




12th January


Predictions:


WTA Adelaide

Ostapenko in 3 sets

Pegula in 2 sets


WTA Hobart

Mertens in 3 sets

Navarro in 3 sets


ATP Adelaide

Korda in 3 sets

Draper in 3 sets


ATP Auckland

Shelton in 2 sets

Fils in 3 sets



WTA Adelaide

Alexandrova v Ostapenko 1.73

Due to start at 6 am


Alexandrova 5-3. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Ostapenko in 3. Alexandrova won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Ostapenko.
Alexandrova beat Linette in 3 tight sets in the 1st round and Kudermetova in 2 sets in the 2nd round. In the q finals she beat Rybakina in 2. She had a poor loss last week. Q finals in Tokyo. 3rd round at the US Open. Final in Cleveland. Q finals in Miami. 3rd round of the Aus Open. 2nd round in Adelaide2.
Ostapenko beat Cirstea in 3 sets. In the 2nd round she beat Garcia in 3. She looked like she was going to retire through injury and had an MTO near the end of set 1. Somehow she recovered. She beat Kostyuk in 2 sets in the q final. She reached the q finals last week. Q finals in Beijing in Oct. Q finals of the US Open. 4th round in Miami and q finals of the Aus Open.
12 month WTA hard stats are better for Alexandrova on serve. Ostapenko leads on return and predicted holds also favour her.
Back Ostapenko around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.



WTA Adelaide

Kasatkina v Pegula 1.33

Due to start at 10 am


Pegula 2-0. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, 2 sets. She won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Pegula.
Kasatkina beat Liu in 2 sets in the 1st round. In the 2nd round she was being outplayed by Kalinskaya and was a set and 0-4 down. Kalinskaya had an injury problem and lost the next 8 games. She had a walkover in the q finals when Siegemund withdrew. She reached the q finals last week. Semis in Zhengzhou, q finals in Tokyo and 4th round of the US Open. Q finals in Montreal and final in Adelaide2.
Pegula beat Pera in 3 sets in the 2nd round. She needed 3 sets against Pavlyuchenkova in the q final. She reached the final of the year end finals in Nov. Title in Seoul in Oct. Final in Tokyo and 4th round of the US Open. Title in Montreal. Semis in Washington and Miami. Semis in Dubai. Final in Doha. Q finals of the Aus Open.
12 month hard stats are better for Pegula. 3 month stats also favour her.
Back Pegula around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liab at 1.45.




11th January



WTA Adelaide

Kostyuk v Ostapenko 1.48

Due to start at 1 am


Ostapenko 1-0 (Sep 2023, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Ostapenko.
Kostyuk beat Kalinina in 2 sets. She beat Townsend in 3. She reached the 3rd round in Beijing. Q finals in Washington. Title in Austin. Q finals in Hua Hin, 3rd round at the Aus Open and q finals in Adelaide1.
Ostapenko beat Cirstea in 3 sets. In the 2nd round she beat Garcia in 3. She looked like she was going to retire through injury and had an MTO near the end of set 1. Somehow she recovered. She reached the q finals last week. Q finals in Beijing in Oct. Q finals of the US Open. 4th round in Miami and q finals of the Aus Open.
12 month hard stats are better for Ostapenko. If she was worried about making any injury worse, she would have retired in the last round.
Back Ostapenko above 2.10 and remove liab at 1.60.



WTA Hobart

Putintseva 1.62 v Yuan

Due to start at 6:30 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Yuan.
Putintseva reached the q finals last season. She has come through the qual rounds. She beat Cocciaretto in a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round. She beat Bouzkova in 3 sets as underdog in the 2nd round. Semis in Guangzhou. Q finals in Osaka. 2nd round at the Aus Open.
Yuan lost in the qual rounds last season. She won 8 of her last 10. She made it through the qual rounds this time. Beat Stephens in 3 sets in the main draw. In the 2nd round she beat Wang as underdog in 2 sets. Final in Seoul in Oct. Most of her best results were in ITF's.
12 month hard stats are better for Putintseva overall. 3 month stats favour Yuan on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Putintseva around 1.35 and remove liab at 1.80. Lay set 1 winner.



10th January


WTA Adelaide

Alexandrova v Kudermetova 1.53

Due to start at 4 am


H2H 3-3. Most recent June 2023, grass, Alexandrova by walkover. Alexandrova won on grass in June 2023, 3rd set tie break. Kudermetova last win was also by walkover in 2023. Hard win %'s are quite even.
Alexandrova beat Linette in 3 tight sets in the 1st round. She had a poor loss last week. Q finals in Tokyo. 3rd round at the US Open. Final in Cleveland. Q finals in Miami. 3rd round of the Aus Open. 2nd round in Adelaide2.
Kudermetova Had a straight sets win over Krueger in the 1st round. She won the title in Tokyo in Oct. Semis in Doha. Q finals and semis in the 2 Adelaide events. She did not have her best season.
12 month hard stats are better for Alexandrova overall. 3 month stats are better for Kudermetova. Recent performances are better for Kudermetova.
Back Kudermetova around 2.20 and remove liab at 1.65. Chance of 3 sets.




WTA Hobart

Bouzkova 1.50 v Putintseva

Due to start at 7 am


Putintseva 1-0 (Oct 2023, hard, 2 sets). 12 month hard win %'s are even.
Bouzkova reached the 2nd round last year. She beat Golubic in 2 sets in the 1st round. She reached the q finals last week. Final in Nanchang. Q finals in Seoul. 3rd round at the US Open. Q finals in Cinci. 3rd round in Montreal.
Putintseva reached the q finals last season. She has come through the qual rounds. She beat Cocciaretto in a 3rd set tit break in the 1st round. Semis in Guangzhou. Q finals in Osaka. 2nd round at the Aus Open.
12 month stats favour Bouzkova overall and 3 month stats favour her.
Back Bouzkova around 2.10 to 2.20.



9th January



WTA Hobart

Minnen v Kenin 1.42

Due to start at 1 am


H2H 1-1. Most recent July 2016, hard, Kenin in 3. Minnen won on grass at the Wimbledon juniors in 2014. Hard win %'s are better for Kenin.
Minnen reached the semis in Guangzhou in Sep. 3rd round at the US Open as qualifier. Challenger final in Aug.
Kenin reached the semis last year. She lost to Rodionova last week. Semis in Guadalajara. Final in San Diego. 3rd round in Miami.
12 month WTA hard stats are better for Minnen overall. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Kenin around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liab at 1.60.



WTA Hobart

Burel v Navarro 1.87

Due to start at 7 am


H2H 1-1. Most recent July 2023, clay, Burel in 2. Navarro won on clay in 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Burel reached the 3rd round last week. Semis in Monastir. 3rd round at the US Open. 2nd round at the Aus Open.
Navarro reached the semis last week, losing to Gauff. 3rd round in Guadalajara. Semis in San Diego.
12 month hard stats are better for Navarro. 3 month stats are better for Navarro on serve and favour Burel on return. Predicted holds are better for Burel. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Burel around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.




8th January


WTA Hobart

Fruhvirtova 1.67 v Rus

Due to start at midnight


Fruhvirtova 1-0 (Oct 2023, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Fruhvirtova lost in the qual rounds. Q finals in Hong Kong. Semis in Ningbo. 4th round at the Aus Open.
Most of Rus' matches in 2023 were in ITF's. She did not win a WTA main draw match on hard.
Back Fruhvirtova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65.



WTA Adelaide

Boulter 1.53 v Tsurenko

Due to start at 3:30 am


Tsurenko 3-0. Most recent Mar 2023, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2020 and 2018. Hard win %'s favour Tsurenko.
Boulter has come through the qual rounds. She beat Pegula at the United Cup last week. 3rd round at the US Open.
Tsurenko reached the semis in Monastir. Q finals in Zhengzhou. 2nd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Indian Wells. Final in Hua Hin.
12 month hard stats are a little better for Boulter. 3 month stats also slightly favour Boulter. Predicted holds are better for Tsurenko.
Lay Boulter around 1.30 and remove liab at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.





7th January


Predictions:


WTA Auckland

Gauff in 2 sets


WTA Brisbane

Sabalenka in 3 sets


ATP Brisbane

Dimitrov in 3


ATP Hong Kong

Rublev in 2 sets




WTA Brisbane

Sabalenka 1.63 v Rybakina

Due to start at 4 am


Sabalenka 5-2. Most recent Nov 2023, hard, Sabalenka in 3. Rybakina won on hard in Oct 2023, 2 sets. That was the only time their matches ended in 2 sets. Hard win %'s are close but favour Sabalenka.
Easy wins for Sabalenka in every round. She beat Azarenka in the semis. She reached the q finals in Beijing and the final in the US Open. Semis in Cinci. Final in Indian Wells. Title at the Aus Open. Title in Adelaide.
Rybakina had a straight sets win in the first 2 rounds and came through the q final when Potapova retired after the 1st set. In the semis she beat Noskova in 2 sets. She reached the semis in Beijing, 3rd round at the US Open. Semis in Montreal and final in Miami. Final at the Aus Open.
Stats for the tournament favour Rybakina. 12 month stats are really close on serve. Slight edge to Rybakina. Return stats are better for Sabalenka and predicted holds favour Sabalenka. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Sabalenka around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65.



ATP Brisbane

Rune 1.89 v Dimitrov

Due to start at 6:30 am


H2H 1-1. Most recent Oct 2023, hard, Dimitrov in 2. Rune won on grass in 2023, 4 sets. Hard win %'s are a little better for Dimitrov.
Rune needed 3 sets in the first 2 rounds. He beat Duckworth in 2 sets in the q final. Straight sets win over Safiullin in the semis. 4th round in Miami. Semis in Acapulco. 4th round of the Aus Open.
Dimitrov beat Murray in 3 sets. Easy wins over Altmaier and Hijikata. He beat Thompson in 2 in the semi final. Semis in Shanghai. Q finals in Beijing. Semis in Chengdu, 3rd round at the US Open and semis in Washington.
Stats for the tournament are a little better for Dimitrov overall. 12 month stats favour Dimitrov. 3 month stats are pretty even. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Dimitrov around 1.55 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.




6th January


Predictions:


WTA Brisbane

Rybakina in 2 sets

Sabalenka in 2 sets


WTA Auckland

Gauff in 2 sets

Svitolina in 3 sets


ATP Brisbane

Rune in 3 sets

Dimitrov in 3 sets


ATP Hong Kong

Ruusuvuori in 3 sets

Rublev in 2 sets



WTA Auckland

Wang v Svitolina 1.32

Due to start at 3:30 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Svitolina.
Wang needed a 3rd set tie break to beat Cristian. She beat Xinyu Wang in another 3rd set tie break as underdog in the 2nd round. In the q final she beat Parry in 3 close sets. Title in Guangzhou. 2nd round of the US Open.
Svitolina beat Wozniacki in 2 sets. She struggled to find consistency in the 2nd round against Raducanu but after levelling the match at 1 set all she was much the stronger player in the 3rd set. In the q final she easily beat Bouzkova in 2 sets. She reached the 3rd round of the US Open. Q finals in Washington.
12 month hard stats are better for Svitolina. She was impressive in the last round.
Back Svitolina above 1.90.



ATP Hong Kong

Ofner v Ruusuvuori 1.63

Due to start at 6:30 am


Ruusuvuori 1-0 (Sep 2019, indoor, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are fairly even.
Ofner easily beat McDonald. In the 2nd round he beat Struff in a 3rd set tie break as underdog. In the q final he beat Bautista Agut in 2 sets. 2nd round at the US Open. He reached 2 more ATP 2nd rounds.
Ruusuvuori beat Bonzi and Khachanov in 3 sets. He beat Kotov in 2 close sets in the q final. 3rd round in Cinci and Washington. Q finals in Miami. 3rd round in Indian Wells.
12 month hard stats are better for Ruusuvuori. 3 month stats also favour him overall. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Ruusuvuori around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liab at 1.60.



5th January



WTA Brisbane

Ostapenko v Azarenka 1.94

Due to start at 1 am


Azarenka 2-0. Most recent Oct 2021, hard, 3 sets. She won on clay in 2019, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are even.
Ostapenko beat Giorgi in 2 sets and Pliskova in 3. She reached the q finals in Beijing. Q finals at the US Open. 4th round in Miami and 3rd round in Dubai. Q finals at the Aus Open.
Azarenka beat Kalinskaya and Burel in 2 sets. She reached the q finals in Guadalajara, 3rd round in Dubai and semis at the Aus Open. Q finals in Adelaide1.
12 month hard stats are better for Azarenka. 3 month stats also favour her. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Ostapenko around 1.60 and remove liab at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.




WTA Auckland

Bouzkova v Svitolina 1.86

Due to start at 5:30 am


Svitolina 2-1. Most recent Feb 2021, hard, Svitolina in 2. She won on hard in 2020, 3 sets. Bouzkova won on hard I 2019 when Svitolina retired. Hard win %'s are better for Svitolina in the last year.
Bouzkova needed 3 sets against Frech in the 1st round but beat Anisimova in 2. Final in Nanchang in Oct. Q finals in Seoul. 3rd round at the US Open. Q finals in Cinci. 3rd round in Montreal.
Svitolina beat Wozniacki in 2 sets. She struggled to find consistency in the 2nd round against Raducanu but after levelling the match at 1 set all she was much the stronger player in the 3rd set. She reached the 3rd round of the US Open. Q finals in Washington.
12 month hard stats are better for Svitolina on serve. 3 month stats favour Bouzkova. I give Svitolina a slight edge to win in 3.
Lay Bouzkova around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.




4th January



WTA Auckland

Yuan v Martic 1.66

Due to start at 11 pm (Wed)


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Yuan.
Yuan beat Day in 3 sets in the 1st round. She plays mostly ITF's. She reached the final in Seoul in Oct. Challenger semi in Aug.
Martic beat Masarova in 3 sets in the 1st round. She had a good record in her first matches in tournaments in 2023 but did not win 2 hard court matches in a week. 2nd round of the US Open and Aus Open.
12 month hard stats are better for Martic on serve. 3 month stats favour Yuan.
Back Martic around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65.




WTA Brisbane

Kudermetova 1.45 v Potapova

Due to start at 6:30 am


Kudermetova 3-1. Most recent May 2023, clay, Kudermetova in 3 sets. She won on hard in 2022, 3 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Kudermetova.
Kudermetova beat Schmiedlova in 2 sets. She won the title in Tokyo in Sep. Her form after that was poor. Semis in Doha in Feb. Semis and q final in Adelaide2 and Adelaide1.
Potapova beat Saville in 3 sets in the 1st round. She reached the q finals in San Diego and Miami. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
12 month hard stats are better for Kudermetova. She also has the better recent results despite ending last season poorly.
Back Kudermetova above 1.90.




3rd January



WTA Brisbane

Saville v Potapova 1.53

Due to start at 1 pm


Potapova 1-0 (Apr 2022, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Saville.
Saville beat Yastremska in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. 2nd round of the US Open. Challenger q final in Aug.
Potapova reached the q finals in San Diego and Miami. 2nd round of the Aus Open.
12 month WTA hard stats are better for Saville. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Potapova around 2.20 and remove liab at 1.65.



WTA Brisbane

Mertens 1.70 v Stephens

Due to start at 7 am


Stephens 2-1. Most recent Sep 2023, hard, Stephens in 2. She won on hard in 2018, 2 sets. Hard win %'s are better for Mertens.
Mertens won the title in Monastir. Q finals in Hong Kong. 3rd round at the US Open. 4th round in Miami. Semis in Monterrey. 3rd round at the Aus Open.
Stephens beat Siniakova as slight underdog in the 1st round. 3rd rounds in Cinci and Montreal. Q finals in Austin and Merida.
12 month hard stats favour Mertens. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Mertens around 1.45 and remove liab at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.




2nd January



WTA Auckland

Yuan 1.63 v Day

Due to start at 3:30 am


Yuan 1-0 (Oct 2022, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %'s are close but favour Yuan.
Yuan plays mostly ITF's. She reached the final in Seoul in Oct. Challenger semi in Aug.
Day also plays mostly ITF's.
12 month hard stats on all tours are better for Day on serve. 3 month stats also favour her on serve. Yuan has better WTA stats in recent months.
Back Yuan around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liab at 1.60.



WTA Brisbane

Riera v Tomova 1.68

Due to start at 6:30 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s in the last year are better for Tomova.
Riera has come through the qual rounds. She was underdog in both qual rounds. She plays mostly ITF's.
Tomova won a Challenger title in Aug. Most of her WTA wins were in qual rounds.
12 month WTA stats are better for Riera on serve. Stats on all tours also favour her on serve. Tomova has a better ROI on hard. Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Tomova around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65. Back Tomova if she loses set 1.




1st January



WTA Auckland

Parry v Bektas 1.70

Due to start at 2 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Bektas.
Parry has won 1 of her last 10 on hard. She reached the semis of an ITF in March.
Bektas won a Challenger title in Oct. Semis in Seoul in Oct. Her matches before July were mostly ITF's.
12 month hard stats on all tours are better for Bektas.
Back Bektas around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65.



WTA Auckland

Anisimova v Pavlyuchenkova 1.44

Due to start at 4 am


Anisimova 1-0 (Mar 2018, hard, 2 sets), hard win %'s in the last year are better for Pavlyuchenkova.
Anisimova reached 2nd rounds in Adelaide1 and Dubai.
Pavlyuchenkova reached the q finals in Hong Kong and semis in Tokyo. 2nd round of the US Open.
Back Pavlyuchenkova around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liab at 1.50.



31st December


Here we go for the new season!

I would advise being careful in the first week of the season, and especially the first round, as some players have not played for 2 months. Also most of the top players will have one eye on the Australian Open later this month. They use the first week as a warm up event. 



WTA Brisbane

Schmiedlova v Dolehide 1.57

Due to start at 2:30 am


Dolehide 1-0 (Mar 2023, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %'s are better for Dolehide.
Schmiedlova reached the 3rd round of the US Open. Q finals in Prague in Aug. 2nd round of the Aus Open as qualifier.
Dolehide reached the final in Guadalajara in Sep. Q finals in Monterrey.
12 month WTA hard stats are better for Dolehide.
Back Dolehide around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65



WTA Brisbane

Bogdan v Kostyuk 1.53

Due to start at 4 am


1st meeting. Hard win %'s are better for Kostyuk.
Bogdan reached the 3rd round in Dubai as qualifier in Feb.
Kostyuk reached the 3rd round in Beijing in Oct. Q finals in Washington and she won the title in Austin in March. Q finals in Adelaide and Hua Hin and she reached the 3rd round of the Aus Open.
12 month hard stats are better for Kostyuk.
Back Kostyuk around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.65