Video Archive 2021
22nd November 2021: Live streamed Q and A
This was a live Q and A. members could place questions in the chat rom and I replied on a live stream. I also had some questions that members had emailed to me.
28th September 2021: Stephens v Zidansek
37% loss! Stephens played a really poor match but I was still a point away from a decent result a few times.
WTA Chicago, First round
Stephens v Zidansek
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Zidansek 1-0 (May 2021, clay, 2 sets). Zidansek has a better hard court win %. Both players have poor results on hard in 2021.
Zidansek reached the q finals in Portoroz although got through the second round by walkover.
Stephens reached the 3rd round at the US Open. Her form and consistency has been poor this season. More recently she has performed well against strong opponents. She lost in 3 sets to Kerber at the US Open and also took Sabalenka and Collins to a deciding set in August.
Back Stephens around 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.
Update: Stephens had 2 bp in the 3rd game of the match. Zidansek was having problems with her serve. Stephens didn't break. I placed a small back on Stephens around 1.79 in case she managed to break next time. IN the next game, Stephens faced 3 bp and I backed her at 1.97. She did have a game point. If she had taken that I was in a decent position. However, she was broken.
Zidansek held easily. Stephens faced a bp in her next service game and I laid Zidansek around 1.65. Stephens held. Zidansek served at 4-2 and was taken to deuce but held. I hedged for a red. Stephens was broken to give Zidansek the set.
In set 2, both players held their first service games easily. I laid Zidansek. Stephens had 4 bp in that game. If she had taken 1 of them I would have been in profit. At each bp my red was just 13%. Stephens did not break. I took the red when Zidansek was at game point. Stephens did not hold serve again.
The loss was 37%. I gave Stephens every chance to get the breaks. In all she had 8 break chances and didn't take one of them.
Zidansek won 6-2, 6-1.
11th September 2021: Raducanu v Fernandez
WTA US Open Final
Raducanu v Fernandez
Due to start at 9 pm
Raducanu won their only previous meeting. That was in the Juniors at Wimb 2018. She won in 2 sets.
Her win % on hard courts is better in 2021. She won 17 of her 20 matches. Fernandez won 17 of 25. Raducanu has come through the qual rounds. She has not lost a set in her 9 matches. In form Bencic and Sakkari were unable to cope with her powerful return game and consistent serving. She has been broken 5 times in her 6 main draw matches.
In the last 3 rounds, Raducanu has struggled in her first service game. She was broken by Rogers and Bencic and was 15-40 down against Sakkari before recovering to hold.
Fernandez’ last 4 matches went to 3 sets. Three of those opponents were top 10 players. Fernandez is a real fighter. She has also served well though has looked a little more vulnerable.
Stats for the tournament strongly favour Raducanu. Even if we compare just the main draw matches, her stats are a lot better. Fernandez has faced tougher opponents over all. Raducanu is rightly the favourite but is priced too low. I think she takes this, which seems crazy to say when a few months ago she couldn’t cope with a 4th round match at Wimbledon and retired after a panic attack.
If they both play their best tennis this could be an amazing match. Back Raducanu around 2.00 and remove liability at 1.55. Surely she won’t win the whole tournament in 2 sets so we have a good chance of it going the distance.
1st September 2021: Kanepi v Fernandez.
WTA US Open, Second round ##Live Streamed Trade##
Kanepi v Fernandez
Due to start at 4 pm
1st meeting. Long term win % on hard favour Fernandez. Hard results in the last 12 months and in 2021 slightly favour Kanepi. Overall results in the last year strongly favour Kanepi. Both reached the 2nd round last year.
Much more US Open experience for Kanepi. Kanepi had a good 3 sets win over Putintseva in the last round. She made a slow start and was broken 3 times in the 1st set. She was twice a break ahead in set 2 and served for the set at 5-4. She took the set in a tie break. Set 3 was one sided.
Fernandez beat Konjuh as slight underdog. Konjuh was a break ahead in set 1 and was broken serving for the set. Fernandez won the tie break. Set 2 was one sided with Konjuh only holding serve once. Fernandez won the title in Monterrey in March but hasn't won 2 main draw matches in the same week on hard since then.
Kanepi reached the final of the Aus Open warm up Gippsland Trophy in Feb. She reached the 3rd round at the Aus Open. Has not won 2 main draw hard matches in a week since. She won an ITF clay title last month which may have helped her confidence but she only played 1 opponent ranked below 400.
Hard court stats in their last 30 matches are very even. Fernandez is a little more likely to get broken in her 1st service game and Kanepi is a little more likely to get the first break of serve. Fernandez has a better record of serving out the set.
Kanepi recovered from losing the 1st set 7 times from 15. Fernandez didn't recover to take the 2nd set in any of the 11 matches when she lost set 1.
This should be close. Some value on Kanepi. Lay Fernandez around 1.40 to 1.50 and remove liability at 1.95. Back Kanepi if she loses set 1.
Update: There were no breaks until Kanepi served at 5-6. Fernandez broke to take the set. In the 2nd set, Kanepi broke serve straight away and took a 3-1 lead. She served at 5-4 and had 2 set points but was broken. Fernandez took the next 2 games to win the match.
The lay of the set winner gave us plenty of time to take a profit, either by removing liability or by hedging evenly.
Fernandez won 7-5, 7-5.
28th August 2021: Sorribes Tormo v Kontaveit
WTA Cleveland, Semi Final
Sorribes Tormo v Kontaveit
Due to start at 11 pm
Kontaveit 3-1. Most recent Oct 2020, indoor, Tormo in 2. All Kontaveit's wins were on hard. The last one was in Jan 2020, 3 sets.
Long term hard win % are even. Both won 32 of their last 50. Tormo has better hard win % in the last year and in 2021. She also has a much higher ROI. Stats for the tournament all favour Tormo. Recent form is better for Tormo.
Lay Kontaveit around 1.45 and remove liability around 1.90. Lay the set 1 winner.
Update: We got the lay price without Tormo being broken. She took the first break of serve and we easily got out exit price. She was broken straight back though and was broken again. I had removed liability when she broke Kontaveit and hedged when Tormo went 0-30 down in the next service game as Kontaveit's stats were a little better.
In set 2, Kontaveit went an early break of serve up. I laid her as she was now a set and a break ahead, even though Tormo's stats had dropped a lot since she took the first break in set 1. Kontaveit was broken to 0!. Tormo also then held her own serve. I hedged in the next game when Kontaveit was 30-0 up. I had been giving Tormo the chance to get another break but Kontaveit had refocused.
Tormo kept fighting but never put pressure on Kontaveit's serve after that. I gave back a chunk of the profit tying lays on Kontaveit.
Small profit for the match. Not a terrible results as my favoured player lost in straight sets.
Kontaveit won 6-4, 6-4
25th August 2021: Paolini v Cornet
#A one sided match can get more interesting
#A double break lead can be a turning point
WTA Chicago, Second round ##LIVE TRADE##
Paolini v Cornet
Due to start at 8 pm
Cornet 1-0 (July 2019, clay, 2 sets). Long term hard win % favour Cornet. She won 27 of her last 50. Paolini won 22 of 50.
Paolini has improved her hard results a little this season. She beat Vekic and Sevastova in Cincinnati. She beat Doi in 2 sets this week.
Cornet reached the 4th round of the US Open 2020 but her results on hard since then have been inconsistent. She was underdog in the last round against Li. She lost the 1st set but then won the next 10 games to lead 4-0 in the 3rd set. Li staged a comeback but Cornet took another break to win 6-4. A confident Cornet is a tough opponent.
Back Cornet above 2.10 and remove liability around 1.50.
In Play
Cornet served first and faced 2 break points but held. She then broke Paolini twice to lead 4-0. I tried a small lay on Cornet after the first break but didn't stay in the trade long. Paolini wasn't being competitive. At 0-4, Paolini broke serve but was immediately broken again. the market didn't really react much to the break of Cornet's serve as Paolini's serve stats were so bad.
However Cornet was broken again, but this time Paolini held serve. As cornet had been broken in her last 3 service game I laid her. Paolini broke to 30. She served for the set but was broken to 0. I had not expected her to hold and had backed Cornet before that service game. I hedged when Cornet was at 0-40.
The set went into a tie break that Cornet won. In set 2, Cornet broke in the first game. I tried a number of lays as Paolini was a set and a break behind and the leading player will often relax. Paolini had chances in most Cornet service games but only managed 1 bp which was saved. That lost a little of the profit but it was a 61% ROI result.
Cornet won 7-6, 6-4.
25th August 2021: Peterson v Golubic
#Matches can turn around quickly!
WTA Chicago, Second round
Peterson v Golubic
This wasn't a planned trade but the planned matched looked like being a one sided match so I agreed to do this one as well.
H2H 1-1. Most recent Apr 2019, clay, Peterson in 2. Golubic won on hard in 2013, 3 sets. Overall long term win % strongly favour Golubic. 36 wins from her last 50.
On hard, they are more evenly matched. Peterson won 30 of her last 50. Golubic won 28 of 50.
Golubic reached the final in Monterrey in March. She faced some tough opponents on hard since then. Straight sets win over Serrano this week.
Peterson reached the q final in the Philip Island Trophy tournament in Feb. She has not won back to back main draw matches on hard since.
Peterson will be competitive. She beat Bouzkova in 2 tie breaks in a rain delayed match this week.
Lay Gol around 1.35 and remove liab at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner
In Play
Both players started the match serving well. Golubic faced a bp when serving at 1-2 and I placed a small back on her. She held and broke Peterson in the next game. I removed half of the liability when Golubic held serve.
Peterson did face a break point/set point when she served at 3-5. Stats said that Golubic held serve at 5-4 66% of the time on hard courts. As she had been serving well, I gave her a chance to hold but hedged when she went 0-30 down. The set went into a tie break. Golubic was a double mini break up at 4-1 but choked and lost the tie break.
The disappointment of losing that set caused Golubic to be broken easily at the start of set 2. I had laid after the set but got out when Golubic had gone 0-30 down. the rest of the set was spent giving Golubic a chance to break serve but she didn't get a single break point. She was broken again at 3-5.
Peterson won 7-6, 6-3.
A disappointing 42% loss (though on small stakes) as I had a couple of chances to take a 50% profit in set 1.
18th August 2021: Rogers v Bencic
Bencic 3-1. Most recent June 2019, grass, Rogers retired. Bencic won on hard in 2014, 3 sets.
Long term overall win % favour Bencic. Her lead on hard courts is smaller. She won 32 of her last 50. Rogers won 31 of 50.
Bencic has better hard results in the last year and in 2021. She won the gold in Tokyo. Comfortable win over Vondrousova in the last round.
Rogers came through the last round when Collins retired. Rogers reached the 4th round at the Aus Open and q finals in Adelaide but has not managed back to back wins on hard since.
Bencic rarely does things the easy way. Back Bencic around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liab around 1.50.
In Play
Update: The first 4 games were holds. Three of those 4 were holds to 30. After that the next 4 games all had bp's. 11bp in those 4 games but no breaks. I had placed a small back on Bencic at 1.76. I favoured her to win and it was 25 ticks above her start price. She did have break chances but couldn't take them. With Rogers serving at 3-3, Bencic had 2 bp but again, didn't take them. As the set gets nearer its end, the price can get more volatile and there was a chance that Bencic would have a reaction to not taking the bp's. I hedged for a tiny green. Bencic served at 3-4 and went 0-40 down. She had to save 4 bp.
I thought Rogers would have a reaction to that in her next service game but she held to 0. The only hold to 0 in the set. I felt that she was starting to get a little momentum and laid Bencic in the next game but she also held easily. I decided to wait until set 2. The set went to a tie break. Bencic took a 3-0 lead and I laid her but it was a poor tie break from Rogers. I also tried a lay at 5-1 in the tie break and carried that lay into set 2.
In set 2, Bencic served first and held to 0. Rogers then held to 15 though only found 1 first serve. There was another easy hold to 15 from Bencic. In the next game, Rogers went 0-30 down and I exited. Rogers did get broken and didn't win another game.
The loss was £38 (25%). Had someone followed my pre match advice, as many will have, they will have come out with profit. When you have traded tennis for a while you have seen positions go against you very quickly at the end of the set. The target price was reached on Bencic within 3 games of the end of the set and I didn't want to take it. The value at that stage was tiny and I felt that Rogers was most likely to take the set. I would then have laid Rogers in set 2.
14th August 2021: Giorgi v Pegula
#Small stakes can still bring decent profit
Pegula 3-1. Most recent Aug 2019, hard, Pegula in 2. Their other 3 matches were in 2010, 2009. Giorgi won their only other hard court match in 2010. Long term overall win % and long term hard win % favour Pegula. Her hard results in the last 12 months and in 2021 are better.
Giorgi has really lifted her game this week. She is playing aggressive tennis. Stats for the week favour Giorgi. She has broken serve first in every match. She has not lost a set.
Pegula broke first in 1 of her 4 matches. She has needed 3 sets in every round and lost the first set in 3 of her 4 matches.
If the match goes with the stats, Giorgi will break first and take the opening set and Pegula will fight back to take the 2nd set. I give Giorgi a slight edge to win. I don't want to wait for Giorgi to be broken before backing her. I'll take 2.10 to 2.20. Remove liability around 1.40. Lay the set 1 winner.
In Play
Giorgi faced 2 bp in her first service game. We didn't get the entry price but I placed a small back at 2.06. She went on to take the set. I laid Giorgi in set 2. She was immediately broken. Pegula took a 3-0 lead. Giorgi started to play better tennis again and i thought there was a chance of her breaking back.
With Pegula serving at 3-1, she was put under pressure and I hedged for even green. Pegula did hold for 4-1. In Giorgi's next service game Pegula had chances to take the game but didn't. Pegula was then broken.
Giorgi was now serving at 3-4. I thought there was a chance that having won the break back, she might relax her intensity just a little. I laid Giorgi. She was broken easily. I hedged.
92% ROI
Giorgi did go on to win in 3 sets.
12th August 2021: Pegula v Pavlyuchenkova
Do NOT trade when tired! When the match started, I had been awake for 20 hours. All of that time apart from a couple of hours when I took a break had been spent at my desk. Should I have traded this one? Absolutely not.
The match was scheduled to start at 11:30 pm but in fact didn't start until 1 am. I was struggling to stay awake. Pegula started with a break of serve and her own service game started well. I place a small back on her as if she ran away with the set, I didn't want to miss out completely. Her service game didn't go as easily as it has looked and she was broken.
I waited for a lower price on Pavlyuchenkova and laid her. Unfortunately, Pegula would not hold serve once in the set. I had a large red. In the second set,
Pegula started in a similar fashion and faced 4 bp in her first service game. She did hold. Pavlyuchenkova then held to 0 and I thought I had better leave the match unless I saw a real improvement in Pegula's game. Her next service game was a hold to 0 so I laid Pavlyuchenkova. Pegula broke serve and continued to serve well for the rest of the match.
Pavlyuchenkova was also serving well and I thought that Pegula would probably get broken back. By backing Pegula before the break I had reduced the red by a third but as I was expecting a break back that didn't happen, I was left back in my original position. I added another £20 red by the end of the set.
I stopped the live stream and was just going to take the loss. As I watched the third set, Pegula looked the stronger player and I backed her. The players swapped breaks of serve at the start and I went with my original opinion that Pegula would win. Pegula broke serve and broke again before the end.
Pegula won 1-6, 6-3, 6-2.
8th August 2021: Sherif v Petkovic
£130 loss. A very one sided match. Decent value entries kept the loss lower.
Pre-Match: 1st meeting. Long term overall win % are better for Sherif. She won 32 of her last 50. Long term clay win % favour Sherif. She won 38 of her last 50. Petkovic won 29 of 50.
Sherif has not lost a set so far. Sherif was broken once in her 1st 3 matches this week. Buzarnescu broke her 3 times in the semi final. Buzarnescu had a set point in the 1st set but a bad line call distracted her. Sherif held serve and took the set in a tie break.
Petkovic lost the first set to Mendez in the q final. She seemed to just decide that she was going to win and started playing much more aggressively. Mendez just couldn't cope. In the semi final Petkovic served for the 1st set but was broken. She immediately broke the Krunic serve to take the set. Krunic was quite subdued in the match.
Stats for the tournament strongly favour Sherif on serve. Petkovic leads on return stats. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Petkovic around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.00. Some value on Sherif. I give her a slight edge to win.
In-Play: I thought Sherif would handle the nerves better than she did in her first WTA Final. However, she did not handle the occasion well at all. She was broken in her first service game. She held serve once in each set.
Petkovic won 6-1, 6-1.
5th August 2021: Arruabarrena v Buzarnescu
£72 profit.
Pre-Match: Buzarnescu 2-0. Most recent Jan 2021, hard, 2 sets. She won indoors in 2018, 2 sets.
Long term clay win % give a slight edge to Buzarnescu. 28 wins from her last 50. Arruabarrena has played more matches on clay in the last 12 months but their win % are even.
More recent form favours Buzarnescu who reached the semis in Bastad in July. She had a good win over Tomova in the last round. Back Buzarnescu around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability around 1.50
In-Play: Buzarnescu broke Arruabarrena's first service game. I laid her around 1.22. Arruabarrena broke straight back. The next 2 games were also breaks of serve. Buzarnescu improved her serve and took the set with another break and an easy hold.
I set 2 I let Arruabarrena serve before laying Buzarnescu. I actually entered when Arruabarrena was at 40-15. She broke Buzarnescu in the next game. I switched all the profit to Buzarnescu at 1.31 which left a £72 free bet on Buzarnescu.
I left the free bet to run.
Buzarnescu won 6-3, 7-5.
5th August 2021: Bara v Kucova
#Loss 45%
Pre-Match: Kucova 1-0 (July 2021, clay, 3 sets). Long term overall win % are a little better for Kucova. She won 31 of her last 50. On clay, Bara leads with 33 wins from her last 50. Kucova won 30 of 50.
Bara's results on clay in the last year are a little better. Bara reached the 3rd round at the French Open 2020. This season she reached the semis of the Bol Challenger but other than that, has struggled for consistency.
Kucova reached the final in Gdynia 2 weeks ago. This week she had a very easy win in the last round. Her stats over their last 10 clay matches are stronger.
I expect this to be close. I give a slight edge to Kucova. A slight concern is that Bara is the home player and will have the crowd's support. However her record in Romania is nothing special. Back her around 2.30 to 2.40 and remove some or all liability around 1.70. Fair chance of 3 sets.
In-Play: Kucova had a terrible first set. I gave her chance to recover and when she went a double break behind, she DID break Bara but only held once in the set. By that time my loss was 45% and I left the match.
Kucova recovered in set 2 and won a tight set, In the third set, both players served well but Kucova won it in a tie break!
2nd August 2021: Bouzkova v Konjuh
#set and a break
#have a strong opinion of who will win. Even if you're wrong, it will limit the potential loss
Pre-Match: 1st meeting.
Long term overall win % are much better for Konjuh. Long term hard win % are strong for both. 12 month and 2021 hard results are a little better for Konjuh.
Bouzkova has won 2 of her last 10 matches. She reached the final of the Philip Island tournament in Feb. Also the semis in Guadalajara in March. Last season she reached the final in Monterrey, qfinal in Lexington and the 3rd round in New York.
Konjuh reached the 4th round in Miami in March 2021. Most of her hard wins this year were in qual rounds. Konjuh has come through the qual rounds this week. In her last tournament which was on clay in Budapest she didn't look happy with life at all. She made it through the 1st round in 3 sets. In the 2nd round she again looked fed up and lost in 2 sets to Putintseva.
This is a tricky one to predict. A little value on Bouzkova as underdog. Lay Konjuh around 1.50 and remove liab at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner
30th July 2021: Schmiedlova v Sramkova
Pre-Match: H2H 1-1. Most recent Aug 2020, clay, Schmiedlova in 2. Sramkova won on clay in 2018, 2 tie break sets.
Both have good long term overall win %. Slight edge to Schmiedlova. She has better results in 2021. Schmiedlova has better win % on clay. Long term, 12 month and 2021 results favour her.
Sramkova has needed 3 sets in every round. She was underdog against Pliskova and Cristian.
Schmiedlova was underdog against Niemeier in the 2nd round but won in 3 sets. She struggled in the 1st 2 sets with Blinkova but easily took set 3.
Stats for the tournament all favour Schmiedlova. Sramkova has taken the first break of serve in all 3 of her matches. This week she has immediately been broken back after breaking following 7 of 16 breaks of serve.
Back Schmiedlova around 2.00. Remove some or all liability around 1.55.
In-Play: Schmiedlova served first. Both players had to work hard for their opening service games. In the 3rd game, Schmiedlova was broken. The market did not move as high as it should have done and hit around 1.76. That wasn't high enough for my planned entry. However pre match I showed that the stats for the tournament showed that Sramkova had got the first break in every round but had also been broken back immediately after 7 of her 16 breaks in the tournament. As I was also favouring Schmiedlova I didn't want to miss out if she broke straight back.
I decided to back Schmiedlova at 1.76 but as it wasn't the value I wanted, I reduced the first entry to £100. Schmiedlova was broken in the next game. As I was on much reduced stake, I didn't remove any liability. Ideally I wanted her to go behind again so that I could get more stake into the market, but if she ran away with the set, my time wouldn't have been totally wasted.
The next 4 games were all comfortable holds. As the score was 4-4 and the market can get more volatile from that point, I tried to remove my liability. I was only partially matched. In her next service game, Schmiedlova went 0-40 down. I waited for her to be broken before backing her but she fought back to hold. I thought there was a chance that, having missed 3 bp, Sramkova might struggle in the next service game. She would also be under added pressure due to having to serve to stay in the set. She actually held fairly comfortably and the set went into a tie break.
Sramkova got a mini break at the start of the tie break and held her 1st service point. If she got to 3-0, I would have backed Schmiedlova. However Schmiedlova recovered to 2-2 . Sramkova won another mini break but was broken straight back. Schmiedlova was the stronger player after that and took the tie break.7-4.
I hedged the position for a 23% profit. As I favoured Schmiedlova to win I did not enter in the second set.
Schmiedlova won 7-6, 6-1.
28th July 2021: Schmiedlova v Niemeier
Pre-Match: 1st meeting.
Overall long term win % favour Niemeier. Both have strong long term clay win %. Niemeier has stronger clay results in the last 12 months and in 2021.
Niemeier has only just started to step up to WTA level but reached semi finals in Hamburg and Strasbourg. In the last round she beat Tomova in 2 sets but didn't have everything her own way. She was only broken twice but his 9 d faults.
Schmiedlova has won just one 2nd round clay match this season. She had an easy win over Fett in the last round, losing just 3 games.
Back Niemeier around 2.10 to 2.20. Remove some or all liability around 1.60 to 1.65. Fair chance of 3 sets
In-Play: Controlling losses, trading low liquidity markets, having a loss limit.
25th July 2021: Zanevska v Kucova
Pre-Match: Zanevska 4-1. Most recent May 2016, clay, Zanevska in 3. Kucova won on clay in 2011, 2 sets.
Long term overall win % are good for both players. Zanevska leads. She won 35 of her last 50. Kucova won 30 of 50. Zanevska also leads on clay. She won 36 of her last 50.
Stats for the tournament favour Zanevska. She has served extremely well, holding 89% of service games. She has lost just 1 set this week which was in the semi final. She had not even been broken before the semi final.
Kucova has had a couple of battles this week. Rain delays can change a match and her match with Bara turned around when the match resumed the following day. She had a surprisingly easy win over Korpatsch in the semi final. Korpatsch had a bit of a shocker.
Back Zanevska around 2.00 and remove some or all liability at 1.50 to 1.60. There is a fair chance of 3 sets.
23th July 2021: Dodin v Cristian
Pre-Match: I was originally going to trade the Diaz v Zanevska match but the match before it went into a third set. I switched to the Dodin v Cristian quarter final in WTA Palermo. I was wanting a lower price to lay Dodin as I was favouring Cristian to win.
In-Play: Cristian served first and saved a bp before holding. In Dodin's first service game she was broken after saving a couple of bp. As Cristian's first service game was not convincing I laid her at 1.66. She was broken to 30.
I left the lay in place, hoping that Dodin would hold serve. . When she went 0-30 down, I hedged for a small profit. Dodin actually held serve! I laid Dodin at 1.59. In Cristian's next service game she was 0-30 down and I laid Dodin again at 1.37. Cristian was broken.
3 games later, Cristian broke the Dodin serve. I removed some liability by backing Dodin at 1.90 and Cristian then held her own serve. As I thought there was a chance that Dodin would struggle in her next service game. In fact, she held easily. I hedged at 30-0 at 1.97 on the Cristian ladder.
The set went into a tie break which was close and Cristian won it. As I favoured Cristian to win and Dodin had poor serve stats, I decided to leave the match alone.
In fact, Cristian broke Dodin the first game of set 2. Dodin then won the next 5 games and took the set 6-3. She also took the third set 6-4! You never know in tennis. As I had been talking a lot in the video about not over trading, I thought I should set a good example.
The profit was £103.94 with a maximum liability of £192. ROI 54%
18th July 2021: Putintseva v Kalinina
The final of WTA Budapest.
Pre-Match: I favoured Kalinina to win but wanted at least 2.10 before backing her. I expected a close match and there was a decent chance of 3 sets.
In-Play: Kalinina was broken in the first game of the match and I backed Her at 2.16 for £150. In the next game Putintseva was 40-0 up on her own serve and I laid her at 1.61 for £100.
Kalinina was then broken again and Putintseva led 3-0. Kalinina broke serve in the next game and I hedged at 2.30 on Kalinina for 13p red as I wasn't happy with Kalinina's serve stats.
Before Kalinina's next service game I backed Putintseva for £150 at 1.77. It was not a great value entry price but was prompted purely by Kalinina's terrible serve stats. However, when Kalinina was 30-15 up, I decided to exit the speculative lay at 1.85. I now had £7.95 red on Putintseva and £5.05 red on Kalinina.
With Kalinina at 40-30, I backed her for £150 at 2.16. A little risky, but she was starting to serve better and her ground strokes were fine. She held serve to trail 2-3. Putintseva then held serve after coming under a fair amount of pressure. She now led 4-2.
I was worried that as Kalinina had not been able to take her chances in that last game, she might get broken herself in the next game. In fact, she held to 15 to trail 3-4. At this point, the trade was at break even with £168 green on Kalinina and £157 red on Putintseva.
With Putintseva serving at 4-3, she was 15-30 down and I removed some liability by laying Kalinina for £100 at 1.80. After several deuces, Putintseva held and I hedged for a tiny red figure. -£2.97 on Kalinina and -£0.67 on Putintseva. I was concerned that Kalinina would get broken in the next game.
Kalinina held serve so Putintseva would serve at 5-4. I thought Putintseva might get tight serving for the set so I backed Kalinina for £150 at 2.22. When Putintseva got to 30-0 I hedged for a £29.27 red on both players. Putintseva's stats for serving out a set from 5-4 were actually very good but I felt it was worth a try. She held to 15.
In the first game of the second set, Kalinina was broken to 15. I laid Putintseva for £150 at 1.28. Kalinina got to 30-30 on Putintseva's serve but Putintseva held and I hedge for a loss at 1.18.
The final results was -£41.99 from a liability of £157. (-27% ROI)
15th July 2021: Schmiedlova v Galfi
This is the first live streamed trade for Tennis Profits.
Pre-Match: Schmiedlova starts as 1.56 favourite but Galfi has had some great results this year on the ITF tour. I'm expecting a close match. If Schmiedlova takes an early break lead I will lay her and I am looking to back her around 2.20 to 2.30.
In-Play: Very low liquidity at the start with less than 5k matched. Money was being entered into the market after every point so it was going to be fine for a swing trade.
Set 1 - Both players started serving well but Schmiedlova was broken in her 2nd service game. The price didn't hit 2.30 until Galfi also held serve. I backed Schmiedlova at 2.30. The next 2 service games were easy holds.
Serving at 3-2, Galfi faced a bp but held. Schmiedlova went 0-30 down in her next service game and I took the chance to lay Galfi around 1.60. Schmiedlova pulled back to 30-30 and 40-40 but was broken. I backed Galfi before the break at around 1.57 to remove some liability. Galfi easily served out the set.
Set 2 - Schmiedlova served first in set 2. I laid Galfi. I could have waited for her to have her service game but felt that she would perform better in this set. If she had been broken in that first game I would have had a 50% loss. She held to 0.
Galfi didn't look as strong on serve in the first service game. She went 0-30 down and I was briefly in a green position.
Galfi recovered and held serve. Schmiedlova held easily again.
In Galfi's next service game she went 0-30 down again but this time Schmiedlova had a break point. This time I took the opportunity to remove liability. Galfi held serve. Schmiedlova held to 30.
In the next Galfi service game, once again she went 0-30 down. Schmiedlova had a bp and I left a free bet on her. She broke serve. A hold from Schmiedlova would mean the set was almost hers. She was broken to 15. I hedged for a small profit.
I laid Galfi in her next service game and Schmiedlova had another bp. I remove most of the liability and had the green on Schmiedlova. Should couldn't break. I hedged for a small profit.
I did try another lay on the Galfi serve but this time she held easily and I exited at 30-0 for a small red of about £3. Galfi broke serve in the next game. I laid her when she served for the match but she held easily. The final result was a £22 red.
Researching a Tennis Match
Paul Shires shows how you can research a tennis match using the Tennis Profits site.